Lamb Prices Research Articles

The volatility of beef and lamb prices in Türkiye: The role of COVID-19, livestock imports, and energy prices.

This study examines the volatility of beef and lamb prices in Türkiye, as food price inflation compromises the food security of low- and middle-income households. The inflation is the result of a rise in energy (gasoline) prices leading to an increase in production costs, together with a disruption of the supply chain by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study is the first to comprehensively explore the effects of multiple price series on meat prices in Türkiye. Using price records from April 2006 through February 2022, the study applies rigorous testing and selects the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK bivariate GARCH model for empirical analysis. The beef and lamb returns were affected by periods of livestock imports, energy prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic, but those factors influenced the short- and long-term uncertainties differently. Uncertainty was increased by the COVID-19 pandemic, but livestock imports offset some of the negative effects on meat prices. To improve price stability and assure access to beef and lamb, it is recommended that livestock farmers be supported through tax exemptions to control production costs, government assistance through the introduction of highly productive livestock breeds, and improving processing flexibility. Additionally, conducting livestock sales through the livestock exchange will create a price information source allowing stakeholders to follow price movements in a digital format and their decision-making.

Timing of the outfield grazing season and finishing of lambs: A whole-farm modelling study of forage-based sheep production systems in Norway

Norwegian sheep production is based on the use of free outfield grazing resources in the mountains and forests in summer. Lamb prices are strongest at the beginning of the slaughter season in August and then begin to gradually decline, reaching a lower plateau in mid-October. Seasonal pricing provides incentives to get slaughter lambs to market early. The objective of this study was to examine how outfield summer pasture quality, time of collection from the outfields, and inclusion of annual forage crops in the diet of finishing lambs influence optimal farm plans and profitability in Norwegian forage-based sheep production systems at varying levels of farmland availability (varying from 15 to 25 ha with 20 ha as the basis). A linear programming model was developed for sheep production systems in the mountainous areas of Southern Norway. Input-output relationships incorporated into the model included data from field experiments with grasses for annual and perennial use, observed performance of lambs and ewes at pastures, a feed planning tool for the indoor season, and expert judgements. The model maximised total gross margin of farms with a housing capacity of 200 ewes. The results suggested that with more land available, drafting older and heavier lambs for slaughter was profitable. The lighter lambs at weaning were usually drafted much later and at the same or heavier carcass weights than the heavy lambs at weaning because of seasonal pricing. Higher quality outfield summer pastures increased lamb live weights at weaning. Annual profits improved considerably with rich summer pastures compared to poor summer pastures. Early collection was always less profitable than normal time of collection because greater prices for lambs sold could not offset losses from the additional feed costs incurred and a possibly smaller flock. Speeding up the growth rate of finishing lambs by offering annual forage crops in addition to grazed grass was usually more profitable than grass only. Only for rich summer pastures and normal time of collection at low land availability was use of annual forage crops unprofitable.

A dynamic ensemble learning approach with spectral clustering for beef and lamb prices prediction

The price gap between the prices of beef and lamb in Qinghai and the average national price of beef and lamb persists and even tends to expand due to the contradiction between supply and demand, which is not only detrimental to the enhancement of income of Qinghai herders but also the healthy development of the beef and lamb industry in Qinghai. To better manage the prices of beef and lamb in Qinghai, to increase the income of Qinghai herders, and to build "a green and organic agricultural and livestock products exporting place" in Qinghai, an effective price forecasting model needs to be constructed and applied in Qinghai. Accordingly, we propose a data-driven ensemble forecasting model based on the idea of spectral clustering to forecast the future prices trend of beef and lamb in Qinghai and hope to provide a theoretical basis for the scientific and healthy development of the Qinghai livestock industry. Specifically, this paper analyzed the fluctuation pattern and characteristics of beef and lamb prices in Qinghai through the spectral clustering method, and extracted their data fluctuation features, respectively. And these features are correspondingly embedded into the proposed ensemble forecasting model to predict the future prices trend of beef and lamb in Qinghai, respectively. The competitiveness of the proposed model was verified on about 14 years’ weekly Qinghai beef and lamb prices (RMB yuan/Kg) data which was obtained from the website of National Animal Husbandry Services using web crawler technology. The experimental results show that the proposed model can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of beef and lamb prices in Qinghai, and provide strong support for the management of beef and lamb prices in Qinghai, the realization of increased income of Qinghai herders, and the building of "a green and organic agricultural and livestock products exporting place" in Qinghai.

Red Meat Price Volatility and Its Relationship with Crude Oil and Exchange Rates in Turkey with the Approach of GARCH (p, q) Model

Turkey's agricultural commodity prices are volatile while they have steadily increased over time. A substantial amount of research has been done on the variations in these prices by looking at other commodities like energy. As a result, the connections between agricultural and energy markets have been widely explored. There is a great concern about how red meat prices in Turkey are getting increasingly fluctuating. On the other hand, we may assume that ups and downs movement in the prices of crude oil and exchange rates are connected to veal and lamb carcass prices and that volatility is transmitted to those meat prices. This study uses the generalize all period unconstraint volatility model, which generalizes the GARCH (p, q) model, to examine the veal and lamb prices volatilities in Turkey and their relationship with crude oil as well as exchange rates (data are weekly covering from May 2006 to February 2017). According to findings, red meat prices have been volatile over the previous decade, notably between 2009 and 2012. Furthermore, crude oil prices have an important impact on the prices of veal and lamb and their prior times statistically. Also exchange rates at t-2 and t-4 time have an impact on lamb prices but none at all on veal prices. Subsequently, red meat price rise and volatility are becoming an important problem for Turkey, and the policies made in this area need to be evaluated.

Economic risk assessment of the quality labels and productive efficiency strategies in Spanish extensive sheep farms

CONTEXTThe socio-economic decline of extensive sheep farming caused by its low profitability in southern European Union (EU) regions threatens marginal depopulated rural areas' survival. In the face of new future institutional and climate challenges, there appears to be an urgent need for strategies to improve economic performance. OBJECTIVEThis paper aims to evaluate the economic performance and risk of two alternative demand-oriented and productive efficiency strategies: i) protected geographical indication certification, and ii) increased ewe reproduction prolificacy. MethodBased on regional farm records and price data and a survey of 54 local farmers, we formulated a stochastic gross margin model to simulate and analyze four strategic scenarios (baseline, quality labelling, productive efficiency, and joint strategies) under two specific stressors, namely decreased lamb prices and increased feeding costs. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSWe found that feeding costs constitute the main risk factor, whereas price instability has less influence. Our findings highlight improvements in performance under a quality scenario, albeit with higher vulnerability to price variability with respect to the baseline scenario. In contrast, the productive efficiency scenario performs much better in terms of average gross margin and reduced vulnerability to feeding costs, albeit with a larger variation for the expected outcomes. SIGNIFICANCEThe paper casts light on the vulnerability of the quality label under price risk, and suggests the potential for the joint implementation of both quality production and productive efficiency strategies, which could compensate for their respective weaknesses.

Are there opportunities to improve lamb feedlot production efficiency? A cross-sectional survey

Context Feedlotting lambs has the potential to considerably increase the efficiency of lamb production in Australia. Many producers have turned to grain-finishing lambs to capitalise on high lamb prices and, due to the perceived profitability of this practice, further research to improve production has not been prioritised. Lambs are, however, difficult to adapt to a predominantly grain-based diet, often resulting in highly variable feed intake and growth rates. Aims The aim of this survey was to investigate the apparent growth rates and feed conversion ratios of lambs in current feedlotting enterprises. A secondary aim was to identify research priorities that could improve feedlot production efficiency. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted between February and May 2020 among Australian lamb producers, with the target population being lamb producers using feedlots to finish lambs. Producer responses from 59 current lamb feedlotters were collated and analysed. Key results The most frequently reported growth rates were between 300 and 350 g/day, and most respondents reported a feed conversion ratio of 5:1. The incidence of shy feeders was a median of 3.5% and mortality was a median of 1%, with acidosis reported as the major contributor to mortality. Conclusions The results of the current survey indicate that for the majority of responding producers, lamb growth rates and feed conversion ratios are consistent with those predicted by the nutrient requirements of domesticated ruminants (CSIRO 2007), and improvements in production are unlikely without significantly increasing nutrient intake. Shy feeders, acidosis and the intake of lowly digestible feeds are the clear limitations to production efficiency. Implications Research to improve productivity of lambs in feedlots needs to prioritise the implementation of feeding strategies that minimise social and nutritional issues, and promote maximum intake of nutrients.

Using a lamb's early-life liveweight as a predictor of carcass quality

The commercial value of lamb carcasses is primarily determined by their weight and quality, with the latter commonly quantified according to muscle coverage and fat depth. The ability to predict these quality scores early in the season could be of substantial value to sheep producers, as this would enable tailored flock management strategies for different groups of animals. Existing methods of carcass quality prediction, however, require either expensive equipment or information immediately before slaughter, leaving them unsuitable as a decision support tool for small to medium-scale enterprises. Using seven-year high-resolution data from the North Wyke Farm Platform, a system-scale grazing trial in Devon, UK, this paper investigates the feasibility of using a lamb's early-life liveweight to predict the carcass quality realised when the animal reaches the target weight. The results of multinomial regression models showed that lambs which were heavier at weaning, at 13 weeks of age, were significantly more likely to have leaner and more muscular carcasses. An economic analysis confirmed that these animals produced significantly more valuable carcasses at slaughter, even after accounting for seasonal variation in lamb price that often favours early finishers. As the majority of heavier-weaned lambs leave the flock before lighter-weaned lambs, an increase in the average weaning weight could also lead to greater pasture availability for ewes in the latter stage of the current season, and thus an enhanced ewe condition and fertility for the next season. All information combined, therefore, a stronger focus on ewes' nutrition before and during lactation was identified as a key to increase system-wide profitability.

Factors influencing the optimum mob size of ewes at lambing and the economic benefit of lambing ewes in smaller mobs to increase lamb survival across southern Australia

At least 25% of lambs born in Australia die before marking. Research across southern Australia has demonstrated that reducing mob size at lambing by 100 ewes will, on average, increase the survival of single-born lambs by 0.8% and twin-born lambs by 2.2%. In this paper we assessed the economic value of lambing ewes in smaller mobs to improve lamb survival. The analysis considered scenarios for Merino and non-Merino flocks where producers subdivided lambing paddocks using temporary or permanent fencing, or where ewes were reallocated within existing paddocks based on ewe pregnancy status. Optimum mob sizes were most sensitive to the type of fencing used for subdivision, whether ewes were single- or twin-bearing, whether the effect of paddock size on potential stocking rate was included and the target return on investment. Breed, ewe stocking rate, scanning percentage and lamb price also impacted optimum mob size but had a smaller effect. The optimum mob size for twin-bearing Merino and non-Merino ewes was between 34% and 60% that of single-bearing ewes and this was similar for scenarios where paddocks were subdivided or ewes were reallocated within existing paddocks. Permanent subdivision of paddocks also presents an opportunity to increase stocking rate by capitalising on the benefits of improved pasture utilisation in smaller paddocks. The relationship between paddock size and pasture utilisation is not well quantified but it has an important effect on optimum mob and paddock size. The value of reallocating ewes within existing paddocks was greatest at a scanning percentage of 150% as this presents the greatest opportunity to alter mob sizes for single- and twin-bearing ewes. The economic return from adjusting the relative mob size of twin-bearing ewes from 100% to 50% that of single-bearing ewes was up to $0.27/Merino ewe/yr and $0.44/non-Merino ewe/yr with lamb at $6/kg carcass weight. Overall, these analyses demonstrate that reducing mob size at lambing can be a profitable strategy for improving lamb survival depending on the current size of lambing mobs. However, it is difficult to provide generic recommendations to producers for the optimum mob size of ewes and value of paddock subdivision because these are dependent on enterprise-specific factors.

Short-Term Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Spanish Small Ruminant Flocks.

Simple SummaryThe human pandemic COVID-19 has rapidly spread around the world, leading to extreme control measures such as population confinement and industries activity closure, including tourism and restauration. Although small ruminants are not sanitary affected, this situation might cause a negative economic impact on Spanish flocks. The data analyses provided by producers and slaughterhouses in the initial 60 days after COVID-19’s pandemic declaration, showed that while the dairy goat flocks suffered a substantial drop in milk prices, this impact was not seen in sheep milk, which remained almost stable. A price drop for lambs or goat kids was also reported. These data are in agreement with the unexpected drop of lambs and goat kids’ sacrifices in April, as reported by some slaughterhouses. We registered a short-term negative economic impact on Spanish small ruminant’s flocks after COVID-19’s pandemic declaration in the country. The long-term economic consequences still need to be studied to establish contingency plans for this type of sanitary crisis.The human pandemic COVID-19 caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in China in 2019 and has rapidly spread around the world, leading to extreme control measures such as population confinement and industry activity closure. Although small ruminants are not sanitary affected by this virus, the short-term economic impact derived by COVID-19 on Spanish flocks is estimated in this study, using data provided by producers and two major slaughterhouses. Milk prices of dairy goat flocks suffered a substantial drop in April 2020, close to 4.5 cts EUR/liter compared to the previous month. In contrast, the monthly milk prices in sheep remained almost stable during this period, and even increases of more than EUR 6 cts were reported in comparison with the previous year. Nevertheless, economical differences are reported by areas where producers could receive a higher income, close to EUR 0.3 per liter of milk. Global data provided by feedlots affecting 2750 Spanish flocks evidenced a lamb price drop ranging from 16.8% to 26.9% after the pandemic arrival; in line with the data directly reported by a limited sample of producers (ranging from 11.0% to 23.7%). The goat kid meat market also suffered a reduction in prices per kg, near 12.5%; although, for some flocks, losses reached up to 40%. In the same line, 2 slaughterhouses reported a sudden sacrifice drop around 27% for lambs and goat kids sacrifices in April, in contrast with the usual sacrifice figures from the beginning of 2020. Moreover, our study showed a temporary and unexpected retention of lambs and goat kids at farms due to a reduction in animals slaughtered during this period. In conclusion, data evidenced a considerable negative economic impact on Spanish small ruminant flocks, throughout the first 60 days after COVID-19’s pandemic declaration. Further studies are needed to evaluate the long-term economic consequences, in order to establish contingency plans and avoid the collapse of small ruminant industries when a crisis of these characteristics occurs.

Geographical Indications and Price Volatility Dynamics of Lamb Prices in Spain

For decades, food quality standards have attracted the interest of governance institutions and regulation authorities, who have responded to the increasing and demanding societal challenges. In addition, the open debate on significant variability and unusually high levels of agrifood prices recorded in 2007 and later in 2011 affect the behavior of the chain actors involved. As an attempt to bring together these wide concerns within a quantitative framework, a comparative analysis of the performance of the price volatility dynamics allowing for asymmetric behavior along the supply chain of a protected geographical indication (PGI)-certified lamb and its corresponding non-PGI counterpart, both located in the same region of Spain, was undertaken using weekly farm-retail prices for the period 2011–2018. The results indicate the existence of significant volatilities and an asymmetric transmission mechanism along the non-PGI-certified lamb supply chain, whereas the PGI-certified supply chain is impacted by volatility effects, yet characterized by symmetric behavior, which may suggest a high degree of relative market efficiency.

Expected Net Benefit of Vaccinating Rangeland Sheep against Bluetongue Virus Using a Modified-Live versus Killed Virus Vaccine.

Recurring outbreaks of bluetongue virus in domestic sheep of the US Intermountain West have prompted questions about the economic benefits and costs of vaccinating individual flocks against bluetongue (BT) disease. We estimate the cost of a BT outbreak on a representative rangeland sheep operation in the Big Horn Basin of the state of Wyoming using enterprise budgets and stochastic simulation. The latter accounts for variability in disease severity and lamb price, as well as uncertainty about when an outbreak will occur. We then estimate the cost of purchasing and administering a BT vaccine. Finally, we calculate expected annual net benefit of vaccinating under various outbreak intervals. Expected annual net benefit is calculated for both a killed virus (KV) vaccine and modified-live virus vaccine, using an observed price of $0.32 per dose for modified-live and an estimated price of $1.20 per dose for KV. The modified-live vaccine’s expected annual net benefit has a 100% chance of being positive for an outbreak interval of 5, 10, or 20 years, and a 77% chance of being positive for a 50-year interval. The KV vaccine’s expected annual net benefit has a 97% chance of being positive for a 5-year outbreak interval, and a 42% chance of being positive for a 10-year interval. A KV vaccine is, therefore, unlikely to be economically attractive to producers in areas exposed less frequently to BT disease. A modified-live vaccine, however, requires rigorous authorization before legal use can occur in Wyoming. To date, no company has requested to manufacture a modified-live vaccine for commercial use in Wyoming. The KV vaccine poses less risk to sheep reproduction and less risk of unintentional spread, both of which facilitate approval for commercial production. Yet, our results show an economically consequential tradeoff between a KV vaccine’s relative safety and higher cost. Unless the purchase price is reduced below our assumed $1.20 per dose, producer adoption of a KV vaccine for BT is likely to be low in the study area. This tradeoff between cost and safety should be considered when policymakers regulate commercial use of the two vaccine types.

50 years of the Wyoming ram test: How sheep have changed

Production characteristics of white-faced rams have been systematically evaluated over a 140-d test in Wyoming since 1961. Individual test records ( = 4,240) from rams on test were analyzed to determine change over the past 52 yr. Although rams on test are not older, weight on and off test has increased ( < 0.001) since 1961. Weight off test increased 22.7 kg and contributed to an increase ( < 0.001) in clean fleece weight. Rate of gain ( < 0.001) almost doubled over this 50-yr period. Growth efficiency improved from 0.23 ± 0.01 kg/d from 1961 to 1966 to 0.39 ± 0.01 kg/d from 2008 to 2013. Cubic, rather than linear, effects better explain the change in growth characteristics, suggesting a plateau or tapering of these traits. Wool characteristics remain an important component of the test index, and despite increases in body size and gain, wool diameter was unchanged ( > 0.15). Average daily gain correlated ( > 0.67; < 0.001) with lamb and feeder lamb price, with the strongest correlation at a 2-yr ( > 0.76) time lag. U.S. sheep inventory was negatively correlated ( > -0.72; < 0.001) with sheep price and ADG, with the greatest correlation at no time lag. Wool price 0, 2, or 5 yr prior did not correlate ( < 0.1; ≥ 0.5) with spinning count. Influences on white-faced ram selection appear to have largely impacted growth traits while avoiding negative impacts on wool quality.

The economic benefits of providing shelter to reduce the mortality of twin lambs in south-western Victoria

Achieving higher lamb weaning percentages by reducing lamb mortality can improve the profitability of sheep enterprises. In this paper we estimated the financial benefits from providing shelter to reduce the mortality of twin lambs in self-replacing Merino or dual-purpose Merino flock enterprises in south-west Victoria. A whole-farm bio-economic model (MIDAS) was initially used to estimate the increase in profit from reducing mortality of twin lambs and a second analysis included the costs of using perennial grass hedges to provide the shelter during lambing. The economic value of providing shelter was tested at three rates of twinning (10, 30 and 50%), three rates of mortality without shelter (70, 50 and 30%) and two levels of reduction in lamb mortality by providing shelter (25 and 50% reduction). A sensitivity analysis to wool and lamb prices, costs of establishing the grass hedges and stocking rates in the shelter area were also tested. Overall, more than 2500 scenarios were tested. Across the range of twinning rates and levels of twin mortality tested, at standard wool and meat prices, providing shelter to the dual-purpose Merino ewe flock was always profitable ($0.05 to 11.35/ewe) and the profits from providing shelter to the self-replacing Merino ewe flock were generally lower ($0.15 to $6.35/ewe). The impacts of changing wool and lamb prices depended on enterprise type, whereas the costs of establishment of the hedges or stocking rate of ewes in the hedge area during lambing had little impact on profitability. The main factor that determined the economic return from shelter was the reduction in mortality provided by the shelter but the proportion of twin-bearing ewes in the flock and the base rate of lamb mortality without shelter was also important. Overall, based on the assumptions used, we conclude that the profitability of many sheep enterprises lambing during frequent high chill weather conditions in temperate areas of south-eastern Australia could be improved by providing low cost shelter for twin-bearing Merino ewes lambing from July to September.

Effects of dietary energy content and provision of β-adrenergic agonist on the production of feedlot lambs

Recent increases in mutton lamb prices have resulted in many lamb producers opting to finish more and more lambs on the farms in a feedlot system rather than marketing directly from the field. The aim of this trial was to determine the effect of dietary energy, as well as the inclusion of a β-adrenergic agonist, on the production of feedlot lambs. South African Mutton Merino lambs (108) of different sexes were weaned (± 36.4 kg) at ca. 120 days of age and were randomly divided into six experimental groups (18 lambs per group), which were adapted to each treatment. Lambs were housed in individual pens. The treatments consisted of three diets (diet 1: 11.3 MJ ME/kg food, diet: 2 12.0 MJ ME/kg food and diet 3: 12.7 MJ ME/kg) with either the inclusion or absence of a β-adrenergic agonist at 8.5 g/ton. The experimental design was a 3 x 2 x 2 factorial design with dietary energy level, the provision of a β-adrenergic agonist and sex as main factors. No interaction occurred between treatments and data are presented as the effect of dietary energy level and the inclusion of a stimulant on the intake, growth and feed conversion ratio (FCR). Neither the dietary energy content nor the β-adrenergic agonist had an effect on FCR. Neither one of the main factors had a significant effect on feed intake. The sex of the lambs had a significant effect on the average daily gain of the lambs with the ewes growing faster than the rams.

Modelling and decomposing price volatility in the Greek meat market

This paper investigates producer–consumer price volatility in four meat markets in Greece: beef, lamb, pork and poultry. The methodology followed in this paper to measure price volatility is that of the diagonal VEC (DVEC) model of Bollerslev et al. (1988) while that of decomposing the estimated price volatility series into components is that of Koopman et al. (2009). The results indicate that pork and poultry markets present higher persistence in price volatility than lamb and beef markets. Furthermore, the persistence of price volatility is greater than the response of volatility to the new market information in all markets under consideration. Finally, the estimated producer–consumer price volatility series of the present paper are related to agricultural policy changes (beef and lamb producer price volatility), imports (pork price volatility and beef consumer price volatility), and market structure (poultry and lamb price volatility).

Evaluation of different predicting methods in forecasting Hungarian, Italian, and Greek lamb prices

Abstract The Hungarian sheep sector has become a one-market sector, almost the whole amount of slaughter lamb goes to Italy. It is worth exploiting possibilities in other European markets. Such markets can be the Spanish and Greek for “light” and the French, German, and English markets for “heavy” lambs. The European lamb prices are characterized by large seasonal fluctuation and the degree and timing of changes are different. Due to these seasonal changes, the producers often suffer great losses. Study of the literature on lamb sales called for an analysis of price forecasting. In this paper, we performed a forecasting of lamb prices in Hungary, Italy, and Greek for the period between 1996 and 2007 based on the data of the European Committee. Among the forecasting methods, Seasonal Decomposition and SARIMA models are the most precise; producers can achieve a better market position by using these in the practice.

Implications of removing or altering the testicles of ram lambs on the financial returns from carcasses

Altering the influence of the testicles of male lambs is used to manipulate growth and body composition. To determine the effects on carcass weight and consequently returns to farmers, an analysis was undertaken from studies in the scientific literature in which animals were slaughtered at the same time. Each dataset was treated as if it were a random event and a model of sex type (including ram, cryptorchid, and wether) was fitted. Rams, cryptorchids and wethers slaughtered on the same date had similar carcass weights. Cryptorchid carcass weights ranged from 95–102%, and wethers 87–107%, of the weight of ram carcasses. Based on this range in responses to altering testicular function, at an intermediate carcass weight of 17.5 kg and at $4/kg, returns from cryptorchids ranged from $3.50 less than to $1.40 more than rams. Similarly, returns from wethers ranged from $9.10 less than to $4.90 more than rams. In conclusion, the carcass weight benefits of not castrating ram lambs are variable and, depending on lamb prices, the financial gains will be small when slaughtered at the same age. However, these results need to be interpreted in light of other animal husbandry and animal welfare requirements and expectations.

Sustainability of hill sheep flocks in England

Sheep production has been taking place on the hills and uplands of England for many centuries and has made a major contribution to environmental and social development and sustainability in these areas. Traditionally, hill farms have provided the crossbred breeding stock for the upland areas, older “cast” ewes for further breeding on improved grazing and naturally reared lamb meat. Under current economic conditions, there is a severe lack of profitability in these units with consequent reduction in sheep and shepherd numbers on the hills. Factors involved in the loss of profitability include persistently poor lamb prices and increased disease risk. Furthermore, 2012 will see the end of many of the current subsidy schemes and from 2010 there will also be the requirement for electronic tagging which requires extra expenses and administrative efforts. The only “growth industry” on this type of land seems to be grouse-shooting, which has low personnel requirement and few long-term social benefits. This paper reviews factors involved in this de-population of the hills, using examples from the Cheviot Hills of Northern England in particular, over the last 20 years and comments on the economic and management requirements necessary for continued sheep farming in these areas, as well as the animal welfare and social effects the trend for lower stock numbers will result in.

Feeding questions of organic lamb fattening

Organic farming has done in line with conventional farming in the Karcag Research Institute of DU CASE since 2001. Our organic farming activities were enhanced with sheep farming andgrassland management in 2005. We started our study of technology development of organic lamb fattening and the treatment of its economic effect this year. Our goal was to developthe elements of the technology to reach a more efficient organic lamb fattening. We also studied what economic advantages the organic sheep farming could realize in the present economic environment. Our studies were carried out between 2005 and 2007. We established that the excellent ewe feeding (good quality of fodder and silage) can decrease the lamb feeding cost between the 2nd and 8th weeks of the lambs’ life. We established that theyield of convention lambs are significantly higher than the yield of organic lambs. The cost of organic lamb fodder is significantly lower than the cost a convention lamb fodder, but the profit was higher in the case of convention lamb fattening. The organic lamb fattening technology (without extra price) is not competitive to the conventional lamb fattening technology. We think that the profitability of organic lamb fattening is significantly less than of the convention one. The organic lamb price should be 20-30% higher than the other price to be competitive. Unfortunatly there is only a little demand for organic lamb and there is no difference between the prices of organic and convention lambs, so organic sheep farmers have worse economic circumstances than conventional sheep farmers.

How can we determine the expected prices for lambs? – Analysis of the Hungarian and Italian lamb prices

The Hungarian sheep sector has become a one-market sector, almost the whole amount of slaughter lamb went to Italy, which increased its defenselessness. In addition to the sole Italian market showing a permanent demand for Hungarian lambs, it would worth to exploit possibilities in other European markets considering the seasonal differences in Italian prices. Such markets can be the Spanish and Greek for ”light” and the French, German and English markets for ”heavy” lambs. Both the Italian and Hungarian prices have three major periods: Easter, Ferragusto and Christmas. Due to the changes in the prices, the producers often suffer great losses, therefore, the temporal adaptation of production, market research, technological and development activities need to be improved. It is important that the living of Hungarian sheep breeders should not be dependent solely upon the Italian market, distribution of products should be ensured in other markets too, so that the safety of sales be increased and higher prices and higher income could be achieved. The European lamb prices are characterized by large seasonal fluctuation and the degree and timing of changes are different in the different countries. Study of the literature and the results obtained in my study on lamb sales called for an analysis and study of the possibilities of price forecasting. In my study, I performed a forecasting of lamb prices in Hungary and Italy for the period between 1996 and 2006 based on the data of the European Committee. Among the forecasting methods, seasonal decomposition and SARIMA models are the most precise, producers can achieve a better market position by using these in the practice.