Evaluation of different predicting methods in forecasting Hungarian, Italian, and Greek lamb prices

Abstract

Abstract The Hungarian sheep sector has become a one-market sector, almost the whole amount of slaughter lamb goes to Italy. It is worth exploiting possibilities in other European markets. Such markets can be the Spanish and Greek for “light” and the French, German, and English markets for “heavy” lambs. The European lamb prices are characterized by large seasonal fluctuation and the degree and timing of changes are different. Due to these seasonal changes, the producers often suffer great losses. Study of the literature on lamb sales called for an analysis of price forecasting. In this paper, we performed a forecasting of lamb prices in Hungary, Italy, and Greek for the period between 1996 and 2007 based on the data of the European Committee. Among the forecasting methods, Seasonal Decomposition and SARIMA models are the most precise; producers can achieve a better market position by using these in the practice.