Lake Ecosystem Model Research Articles

The future of algal blooms in lakes globally is in our hands

Lakes are fundamental to society and nature, yet they are currently exposed to excessive nutrients and climate change, resulting in algal blooms. In the future, this may change, but how and where still needs more scientific attention. Here, we explore future trends in algal blooms in lakes globally for >3500 ‘representative lakes’ for the year 2050, considering the attribution of both nutrient and climate factors. We soft-coupled a process-based lake ecosystem model (PCLake+) with a watershed nutrient model (MARINA-Multi) to assess trends in algal blooms in terms of the Trophic State Index for chlorophyll-a (TSI-Chla). Globally between 2010 and 2050, we show a rising trend in algal blooms under fossil-fuelled development (TSI-Chla increase in 91 % of lakes) and a declining trend under sustainable development (TSI-Chla decrease in 63 % of lakes). These changes are significantly attributed to nutrients. While not always significant, climate change attributions point to being unfavourable for lakes in 2050, exacerbating lake water quality. Our study stresses prioritising responsible nutrient and climate management on policy agendas. This implies that the future of algal blooms in lakes is in our hands.

Assessing alternative lake management actions for climate change adaptation.

Lake management actions are required to protect lake ecosystems that are being threatened by climate change. Freshwater lakes in semiarid regions are of upmost importance to their region. Simulations of the subtropical Lake Kinneret project that rising temperatures will cause change to phytoplankton species composition, including increased cyanobacteria blooms, endangering lake ecosystem services. Using lake ecosystem models, we examined several management actions under climate change, including two alternatives of desalinated water introduction into the lake, hypolimnetic water withdrawal, watershed management changes and low versus high lake water level. To account for prediction uncertainty, we utilized an ensemble of two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical lake models along with 500 realizations of meteorological conditions. Results suggest that supplying desalinated water for local use, thus releasing more natural waters through the Jordan River, increasing nutrient flow, may reduce cyanobacteria blooms, mitigating climate change effects. However, these results are accompanied by considerable uncertainty.

Climate change impact on sub-tropical lakes – Lake Kinneret as a case study

Climate change is anticipated to alter lake ecosystems by affecting water quality, potentially resulting in loss of ecosystem services. Subtropical lakes have high temperatures to begin with and are expected to exhibit higher temperatures all year round which might affect the thermal structure and ecological processes in a different manner than lakes in temperate zones.In this study the ecosystem response of the sub-tropical Lake Kinneret to climate change was explored using lake ecosystem models. Projection reliability was increased by using a weather generator and ensemble modelling, confronting uncertainty of both climate projections and lake models. The study included running two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models over one thousand realizations of two gradual temperature increase scenarios that span over 49 years.Our predictions show that an increase in air temperature would have subtle effects on stratification properties but may result in considerable changes to biogeochemical processes. Water temperature rise would cause a reduction in dissolved oxygen. Both of these changes would produce elevated phosphate and lowered ammonium concentrations. In turn, these changes are predicted to modify the phytoplankton community, expressed chiefly in increased cyanobacteria blooms at the expense of green phytoplankton and dinoflagellates; these changes may culminate in overall reduction of primary production. Identification of these trends would not be possible without the use of many realizations of climate scenarios. The use of ensemble modelling increased prediction reliability and highlighted elements of uncertainty. Though we use Lake Kinneret, the patterns identified most likely indicate processes that are expected in sub-tropical lakes in general.

Opposite trends in environmental DNA distributions of two freshwater species under climate change

AbstractChanges in the thermal structure of lake ecosystems have been documented as a response to climate change, but the dynamics of biomass distribution, which fundamentally determines species conservation, has been less studied. An interdisciplinary approach was used to demonstrate the influence of climate‐driven changes on the environmental DNA (eDNA) distribution of two species (Gymnogobius isaza and Palaemon paucidens) in Lake Biwa, the largest monomictic lake in Japan. In field surveys in 2016–2017 (full water circulation) and 2019 (partial water circulation), eDNA concentrations of these species were measured for 43 and 47 samples, respectively, collected from the lake bottom. The correlative relationship was investigated between species' eDNA concentrations and environmental variables. The species–environment relationship was then applied to species' eDNA distributions under existing and future environments calculated by a lake ecosystem model. Based on differences in the estimated eDNA distributions, we suggest that different species respond differently to climate change. The distribution of G. isaza will expand in the future if full water circulation occurs, although it appears to be independent of water circulation at present. Partial water circulation enlarges the distribution area of P. paucidens, but its eDNA concentrations will be low in the future, regardless of the extent of water circulation. These results indicate that species such as P. paucidens, which is now abundant but vulnerable to climate change, require special attention. Furthermore, our study emphasizes the potential application of interdisciplinary methodologies for improved species conservation.

Connecting lakes: Modeling flows and interactions of organisms and matter throughout the waterscape

Eutrophication poses a threat to lake ecosystem services provisioning worldwide. When eutrophic lakes are connected to other water systems, either through water flows, or through organismal movement and dispersal, their excess nutrients affect nearby lakes too. Understanding nutrient transport dynamics in lake meta-ecosystems is not trivial, as it encompasses the complexity of ecosystems themselves (i.e., food web dynamics, nutrient cycling) and the transport between ecosystems. Hitherto, it remains unknown how heterogeneity in lake meta-ecosystems affects their ecological resilience. We argue that scientists and water managers would benefit from the use of meta-ecosystem models while unravelling meta-ecosystem complexity. To this end, we converted lake ecosystem model PCLake + into lake meta-ecosystem model PCLakeS+. We showed that the spatial configuration of a lake meta-ecosystem influences its ecological dynamics, and that nutrient transport depends heavily on food web processes. We conclude that PCLakeS+ is suitable for exploring meta-ecosystem concepts for science and water management.

How can top-down and bottom-up manipulation be used to mitigate eutrophication? Mesocosm experiment driven modeling zooplankton seasonal dynamic approach in the trophic cascade.

Eutrophication leads to algae blooms and reduces the transparency of water bodies, which seriously affects water quality and ecosystem equilibrium, especially in shallow water body ecosystems (SWE). Controlling foodwebs by manipulating fish and macrophytes provides a feasible method to mitigate the effects of eutrophication. The response of zooplankton as the primary consumer to biomanipulation is mostly conceptualized and lacks detailed observation. Mesocosm experiments that altered the biomass of planktivorous fish and macrophytes were set up and their boundary conditions were extended into a series of scenarios for modeling biomanipulation. Thus, this study utilizes a one-dimensional lake ecosystem model Water Ecosystems Tool (WET) which considered each zooplankton group: rotifers, cladocerans, and copepods, to predict the seasonal dynamic effects of biomanipulation on zooplankton in SWE, and the model results are analyzed in comparison with the mesocosm results. Observed data from mesocosm experiments set up in a temperate pond, including water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll a (Chl a), macrophytes, zooplankton, and fish, were used to calibrate and validate the models. The modeled results showed that in spring and summer zooplanktivorous fish removal would increase all three categories of zooplankton and consequently cause a decrease of phytoplankton, whilst an increase in fish biomass would increase phytoplankton, and concomitantly water turbidity. However, in autumn, rotifers and phytoplankton increased in response to fish removal, but cladocerans and copepods decreased, 27% and 41%, respectively. Across all three vegetated seasons, increasing the biomass of macrophytes revealed a similar pattern: all three categories of zooplankton increased and phytoplankton subsequently decreased. Our study proposes a "fish-zooplankton-macrophyte-phytoplankton" trophic cascade and quantitatively predicts the dynamics of each zooplankton group under biomanipulation through this pathway, and provides support for establishing macrophyte beds and removing zooplanktivorous fish (in spring and summer) as an effective approach to mitigate eutrophication.

Using high level validation to increase lake ecosystem model reliability

Using high level validation to increase lake ecosystem model reliability

Synergistic Effects of Warming and Internal Nutrient Loading Interfere with the Long-Term Stability of Lake Restoration and Induce Sudden Re-eutrophication.

Phosphorus (P) precipitation is among the most effective treatments to mitigate lake eutrophication. However, after a period of high effectiveness, studies have shown possible re-eutrophication and the return of harmful algal blooms. While such abrupt ecological changes were attributed to the internal P loading, the role of lake warming and its potential synergistic effects with internal loading, thus far, has been understudied. Here, in a eutrophic lake in central Germany, we quantified the driving mechanisms of the abrupt re-eutrophication and cyanobacterial blooms in 2016 (30 years after the first P precipitation). A process-based lake ecosystem model (GOTM-WET) was established using a high-frequency monitoring data set covering contrasting trophic states. Model analyses suggested that the internal P release accounted for 68% of the cyanobacterial biomass proliferation, while lake warming contributed to 32%, including direct effects via promoting growth (18%) and synergistic effects via intensifying internal P loading (14%). The model further showed that the synergy was attributed to prolonged lake hypolimnion warming and oxygen depletion. Our study unravels the substantial role of lake warming in promoting cyanobacterial blooms in re-eutrophicated lakes. The warming effects on cyanobacteria via promoting internal loading need more attention in lake management, particularly for urban lakes.

Using High Level Validation to Increase Lake Ecosystem Model Reliability

Using High Level Validation to Increase Lake Ecosystem Model Reliability

How morphology shapes the parameter sensitivity of lake ecosystem models

A global sensitivity analysis of a lake ecosystem model (GOTM-FABM-PCLake) was undertaken to test the impacts of lake morphology on parameter sensitivity in three different lakes. The analysis was facilitated by the Parallel Sensitivity and Auto-Calibration tool (parsac) and included a screening step with the density-based Borgonovo's method followed by in-depth analysis with both Borgonovo's and the variance-based Sobol’ methods. The Borgonovo's method proved efficient in ranking the most influential parameters and its results were corroborated by the Sobol’ method. For total phosphorus and total nitrogen, parameters related to the benthic-pelagic coupling and phytoplankton, were particularly important for the shallower lakes, whereas the most important parameters for total nitrogen were related mainly to the benthic-pelagic coupling in the deepest lake. For chlorophyll a, phytoplankton and zooplankton parameters were most influential. We conclude that lake morphology shapes the parameter sensitivity of lake ecosystem models.

Nutrient retention by the littoral vegetation of a large lake: Can Lake Ohrid cope with current and future loading?

AbstractNitrogen and phosphorus budgets were compiled for the littoral (29 km2) and pelagic (329 km2) of ancient, deep, clear, and hard water Lake Ohrid (Albania and North Macedonia), to assess the importance of the littoral in nutrient retention. P originates mainly from domestic point sources (73%), for N this is karst seepage (50%). Total littoral loads are estimated at 1700 kg P and 23,200 kg N km−2 (area of littoral) yr−1; net littoral retention is 31% ± 13% for P and 40% ± 16% for N, largely in the dense charophyte belt. P retention is mainly due to detritus burial, but also due to coprecipitation; N retention is due to both detritus burial and denitrification. A Monte‐Carlo plausibility analysis balanced the budget by increasing nonconnected domestic household inputs (from 20% to 27% of external load), and decreasing pelagic sediment P burial by 27% and littoral denitrification by 25%. Scenario projections for 2100 corresponding to SRES A2 and B1 were linked to an AQUASIM lake ecosystem model. Under B1, the changes were small compared to the present. A2, however, led to a major reduction in precipitation, an increase in evapotranspiration, a reduction in river outflow (to ∼ 20%), a doubling in P‐loading, a drop in lake level of ∼ 1.5 m, and a decline in the extent of the charophyte belt. Areal loading of the littoral would increase accordingly, but water transparency would not decline much. Also, the littoral vegetation will witness a shift in species composition, and an increase in filamentous Cladophora cover.

Seasonal succession of functional traits in phytoplankton communities and their interaction with trophic state

Abstract Understanding and explaining the structure of communities in response to environmental gradients is a central goal in ecology. Trait‐based approaches are promising but yet rarely applied to understand community dynamics in response to changing environmental conditions. Here, we investigate seasonal succession patterns of functional traits in phytoplankton communities and how nutrient reductions (oligotrophication) alter these patterns. We used phytoplankton data from 40 years of observation from the Rappbode Reservoir (Germany), which underwent a strong shift in trophic conditions, and translated taxonomic composition into functional traits by assigning trait values compiled from the literature. All studied traits (morphological, behavioural and physiological traits) responded to changing environmental conditions and showed consistent, reoccurring seasonal developments. The seasonal succession of phytoplankton communities was shaped by a trade‐off between small‐celled, fast‐growing species that are able to rapidly incorporate existing resources (r‐strategists) and large‐celled species with more complex and efficient mechanisms to exploit scarce mineral nutrients or acquire previously unexploited nutrient pools (k‐strategists). In summer, when nutrients were scarce, the k‐strategy was prevailing (important traits: phosphate affinity, nitrogen fixation, motility and mixotrophy). During the rest of the year, nutrients and turbulence were high and r‐strategists dominated (important traits: maximum growth rate and light affinity). A comparison between eutrophic and oligotrophic years revealed that the main features of functional trait succession were largely preserved, but intra‐annual fluctuations from spring to summer were stronger during eutrophic years. Nutrient reductions mainly affected functional traits and biomass in spring, while in summer the functional community composition changed little. Synthesis. This study provides for the first time a quantitatively supported functional template for trait‐based succession patterns in lakes under different nutrient conditions. By translating taxonomic composition into trait information, we demonstrate that the quantification of functional characteristics enables ecological interpretation of observed community dynamics and provides not only a testable template but also a powerful tool towards a more mechanistic understanding. The quantification of functional traits further improves the predictability of community shifts in response to changing environmental conditions and thus opens new perspectives for predictive limnology using lake ecosystem models.

Effects of natural and anthropogenic changes on testate amoebae communities in an alpine lake over the past 2500 years

Deep high-altitude mountain lakes can act as a natural laboratory, and have the potential to contribute ecological data for understanding the way natural climate and anthropogenic changes that can affect the ecosystems. We present a multi-proxy record from a sediment core from such a lake (Lake Lugu) in southwest China with emphasis on the changes in the testate amoebae community, along with sedimentological data (magnetic susceptibility, total organic carbon/TOC and total nitrogen/TN) over the last 2500 years. In total, 29 testate amoebae species belonging to eight genera (Arcella, Centropyxis, Cyphoderia, Difflugia, Netzelia, Phryganella, Pseudodifflugia and Zivkovicia) were identified. Three stages were clearly defined for the lake based on testate amoebae community. The first stage dated to about 500 BCE–800 CE, with the testate amoebae community dominated by Centropyxis and influenced by soil erosion. The second stage (about 800–1920 CE) was characterized by a gradual increase of TOC and TN and an abrupt shift from Centropyxis-dominated to Difflugia-dominated communities. The third stage (about 1920–2010 CE) showed the pronounced impact of environmental change, high proliferation of Difflugia and a strong influence of human activities. Our results suggest that the testate amoebae assemblages in this high-altitude mountain lake are sensitive paleoenvironmental indicators that can help to monitor alpine lake ecosystem change and model lake succession under changing climate and environment. The potential causes of changes in the testate amoebae species composition and three stages of Lake Lugu succession were soil erosion and pollutants. The soil erosion led to the inwash of terrestrial particles and few testate amoebae species into Lake Lugu showing the importance of stochastic processes. The nutrient enrichment from soil erosion generated disturbances in the environment and species competition that led to the proliferation of some species and disappearance of others through niche based deterministic processes.

PCLake+: A process-based ecological model to assess the trophic state of stratified and non-stratified freshwater lakes worldwide

The lake ecosystem model PCLake is a process-based model that was developed to simulate water quality based on ecological interactions in shallow, non-stratifying lakes in the temperate climate zone. Here we present PCLake+, which extends the PCLake model to cover a wide range of freshwater lakes that differ in stratification regime and climate-related processes. To this end, the model was extended with a hypolimnion layer that can be invoked and configured by forcing functions or by simple built-in empirical relationships that impose stratification. Further adjustments to the original PCLake model have been made with respect to the calculation of 1) light irradiation in the water column, 2) evaporation processes and 3) phenology of macrophytes. The simulation output of PCLake+ for different types of lakes complies well with generally accepted limnological knowledge, thus holding promise for future contributions to ecological theory and application to lakes around the globe.

Mathematical analysis on deterministic and stochastic lake ecosystem models.

In this paper, we propose and study the deterministic and stochastic lake ecosystem models to investigate the impact of terrestrial organic matter upon persistence of the plankton populations. By constructing Lyapunov function and using the LaSalle's Invariance Principle, we establish global properties of the deterministic model. The dynamical behavior of solutions fits well with some experimental results. It is concluded that the terrestrial organic matter plays an important role in influencing interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton. Based on the fluctuations of lake ecosystem, we further develop a stochastically perturbed model. Theoretic analysis implies that the stochastic model exists a stationary distribution which is ergodic. The key point of our analysis is to enhance our knowledge of the factors governing the dynamics of plankton population models.

Modeling the impacts of climate change on the thermal and oxygen dynamics of Lake Volta

Abstract Climatic changes influence the thermal and oxygen dynamics of a lake and thus its ecological functioning. The impacts of climatic changes on tropical lakes are so far poorly studied and the extent of the effects is therefore uncertain, most investigations describing only potential effects. In this study, we applied the one-dimensional lake ecosystem model GOTM-ERGOM to quantify the effects of climate change on thermal stratification, oxygen dynamics, and primary production in meso-oligotrophic Lake Volta. GOTM-ERGOM was calibrated and validated using two years of observed data. The validated model was used to evaluate a series of future climate change scenarios. The model simulations showed good agreement with observed water temperature, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll-a and indicated intensified stratification and reduced oxygen levels in the productive water layers of the lake. However, the longer-lasting stratification (prolonged stability) did not translate into permanent stratification. A relatively small (1 m) upward shift of thermocline depth resulted in an 8%–12% volume loss of the oxygen-rich upper mixed layer, which may be significant for the fisheries of the lake as it diminishes the size of suitable fish habitats. Light limitation of primary production renders the lake somewhat resilient to intensive algae blooms, as traceable in both the present and in the future climate scenarios. In the long term, the ongoing climate change may affect riparian communities that depend on the lake's fisheries for their livelihood. In consequence, future lake management strategies for implementation need to account for the impacts of future climate change.

Climate Change Will Make Recovery from Eutrophication More Difficult in Shallow Danish Lake Søbygaard

Complex lake ecosystem models can assist lake managers in developing management plans counteracting the eutrophication symptoms that are expected to be a result of climate change. We applied the ecological model PCLake based on 22 years of data from shallow, eutrophic Lake Søbygaard, Denmark and simulated multiple combinations of increasing temperatures (0–6 °C), reduced external nutrient loads (0%–98%) with and without internal phosphorus loading. Simulations suggest nitrogen to be the main limiting nutrient for primary production, reflecting ample phosphorus release from the sediment. The nutrient loading reduction scenarios predicted increased diatom dominance, accompanied by an increase in the zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio. Simulations generally showed phytoplankton to benefit from a warmer climate and the fraction of cyanobacteria to increase. In the 6 °C warming scenario, a nutrient load reduction of as much as 60% would be required to achieve summer chlorophyll-a levels similar to those of the baseline scenario with present-day temperatures.

Historical trophic evolution resulting from changes in climate and ecosystem in Lake Taihu and seven other lakes, China

Under natural conditions, the evolution of lake trophic status is not only influenced by climatic and hydrological factors but also by the biological interactions and feedbacks occurring within the lake ecosystem. To envision long-term changes of lake trophic status in several shallow lakes from the Yangtze River basin, we focused on variations in nutrient level and attempted to use both hydrologic- and ecodynamic-based physical models. One was an equivalent-hydrology model with external driving forces from catchment climate and hydrology changes (Model 1), the other was a dynamic model with internal driving forces from the biological interactions within the lake ecosystem (Model 2). Two models were employed in order to distinguish the effects of climate change (by Model 1) from ecosystem feedbacks (by Model 2) on the long-term lake nutrients changes and to further determine which driver was the primary cause for the changes. Variations in lake producer biomass and total phosphorus (TP) were simulated for a historic 200-yr period (1640–1840 AD) in Lake Taihu and seven other similar lakes from the Yangtze River basin after calibration and validation of the control runs (1950–2000 AD). Results showed that (1) TP simulations by Model 1 and Model 2 were mostly consistent with the reconstructed nutrient records from lake sediment cores; (2) the long-term variations of lake nutrients were primarily affected by precipitation under the influence of climate change and the decreases in lake nutrients were more likely to respond to the dry climate; and (3) approximately 49% of the variability in nutrient concentrations were contributed by the feedback of biological interactions in the lake ecosystem. The study results provide a scientific basis for long-term control of nutrients in lakes along the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Research on self-purification capacity of Lake Taihu.

An effective measure to cope with eutrophication of lakes is to remove nutrients that can cause algal blooming by taking advantage of natural water purification processes. Here, the term "purification" is defined, in a wide sense, as the potential role of a water body to contribute to the reduction of pollutants and thus controlling eutrophication. Also regarded as a kind of ecological regulating services, biological purification involves various processes concerning seasonal nutrient fixation, such as uptake by aquatic macrophyte, biofouling onto foliage substrates, feeding by organisms in higher trophic level, and eternal loss or removal of substance from the water. In order to evaluate the water purification ability, a numerical lake ecosystem model (EcoTaihu) was developed and applied to Lakes Taihu. The model includes the biological interactions between pelagic compartments (phytoplankton and zooplankton, detritus, dissolved organic matter, fish, and nutrients). Under dynamic forcing of meteorological and hydrological parameters, the model was run over years to evaluate the annual nutrient cycles and purification functions. The reproducibility of the model was validated for water body by comparison with the field data from the water quality monitoring campaign. Numerical results revealed that self-purification capacity of nitrogen of Lake Taihu in years 2006, 2008, and 2010 is 4.00 × 10(4), 4.27 × 10(4), and 4.11 × 10(4)ton, respectively, whereas self-purification capacity of phosphorus of Lake Taihu in years 2006, 2008, and 2010 is 1.56 × 10(3), 1.80 × 10(3), and 1.71 × 10(3)ton, respectively.

Defining limits to multiple and simultaneous anthropogenic stressors in a lake ecosystem – Lake Kinneret as a case study

In this study we expanded a recently developed approach for defining acceptable levels of management policy that will allow sustainable management of water quality in a lake ecosystem. A three dimensional solution space was created to define all acceptable scenarios of N loads, P loads and lake water level (WL) thus providing an integrated tool for defining the extent of measures that will allow lake ecosystem sustainability. The approach included use of a lake ecosystem model, a quantitative system of composite water quality indices (CWQIs) and defined sustainability criteria for the ecosystem. The approach was tested on the Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) ecosystem and succeeded in defining the range of acceptable management policy through the use of long term simulations of different scenarios. Using the results of the scenarios, a number of polygons were created, defined as relative solution domain area (RSDA), which denote the permissible ranges of nutrient loads at different water levels. The polygon, and hence RSDA, boundaries represent critical values of nutrient loads allowing conservation of the lake water quality at each WL. By integrating all RSDA, a three dimensional solution space was created which defines all acceptable ranges of N loads, P loads and WL thus providing lake managers with an integrated tool for defining the extent of measures that will allow sustainability of the lake ecosystem. This novel approach is unique, and presents an example of implementation of a management tool that integrates an ecosystem model, multiple stressors and quantified water quality indices to determine limits of management actions. This approach may well be implemented to other lakes around the world suffering from water quality deterioration as a result of changes in water level and nutrients loads.