Defining limits to multiple and simultaneous anthropogenic stressors in a lake ecosystem – Lake Kinneret as a case study

Abstract

In this study we expanded a recently developed approach for defining acceptable levels of management policy that will allow sustainable management of water quality in a lake ecosystem. A three dimensional solution space was created to define all acceptable scenarios of N loads, P loads and lake water level (WL) thus providing an integrated tool for defining the extent of measures that will allow lake ecosystem sustainability. The approach included use of a lake ecosystem model, a quantitative system of composite water quality indices (CWQIs) and defined sustainability criteria for the ecosystem. The approach was tested on the Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) ecosystem and succeeded in defining the range of acceptable management policy through the use of long term simulations of different scenarios. Using the results of the scenarios, a number of polygons were created, defined as relative solution domain area (RSDA), which denote the permissible ranges of nutrient loads at different water levels. The polygon, and hence RSDA, boundaries represent critical values of nutrient loads allowing conservation of the lake water quality at each WL. By integrating all RSDA, a three dimensional solution space was created which defines all acceptable ranges of N loads, P loads and WL thus providing lake managers with an integrated tool for defining the extent of measures that will allow sustainability of the lake ecosystem. This novel approach is unique, and presents an example of implementation of a management tool that integrates an ecosystem model, multiple stressors and quantified water quality indices to determine limits of management actions. This approach may well be implemented to other lakes around the world suffering from water quality deterioration as a result of changes in water level and nutrients loads.