Assessing alternative lake management actions for climate change adaptation.

Abstract

Lake management actions are required to protect lake ecosystems that are being threatened by climate change. Freshwater lakes in semiarid regions are of upmost importance to their region. Simulations of the subtropical Lake Kinneret project that rising temperatures will cause change to phytoplankton species composition, including increased cyanobacteria blooms, endangering lake ecosystem services. Using lake ecosystem models, we examined several management actions under climate change, including two alternatives of desalinated water introduction into the lake, hypolimnetic water withdrawal, watershed management changes and low versus high lake water level. To account for prediction uncertainty, we utilized an ensemble of two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical lake models along with 500 realizations of meteorological conditions. Results suggest that supplying desalinated water for local use, thus releasing more natural waters through the Jordan River, increasing nutrient flow, may reduce cyanobacteria blooms, mitigating climate change effects. However, these results are accompanied by considerable uncertainty.