Growth Rate Of Labor Productivity Research Articles

TRENDS OF THE AI ECONOMY IN RUSSIA

This paper is devoted to determining the trends of the AI economy in Russia. The method of trend analysis was used to find the dynamics of change in the values of the indicators of development of the AI economy in Russia. As a result, we revealed the specific features of its Russian model. The first feature is that in Russia, the key participant of the AI economy is the government, and the role of business, despite its being a secondary player, constantly grows. The second feature is that Russia successfully strengthens technological sovereignty in the sphere of the AI economy. The main conclusion is that in the Russian model, the advantages of the AI economy are connected with the growth of the share of knowledge-intensive employment and an increase in the quality of life, and its risks consist in a possible slowdown of the growth rate of labour productivity and reduction of the quality of products. The managerial significance of the paper is that the compiled econometric model generalised the leading experience of the top 30 AI economies in the world in 2023 and disclosed the cause-and-effect relationships of its development. The practical significance is that the authors’ forecast outlined the perspective of the development of the AI economy in Russia in the Decade of Science and Technologies until 2031.

Labour Productivity, Wages, and Inflation: Evidence from Selected Central and South-East European Countries

The relationship between inflation, worker wages, and labour productivity growth has been a widely discussed topic among academics in recent decades. Labour productivity is a critical component for maintaining and improving the competitiveness of national economies and establishing sustainable economic growth. The increase in labour productivity serves as the foundation for increasing workers' wages, thereby enhancing their purchasing power and overall well-being. However, empirical data from Southeast European countries indicate that labour productivity growth rates have been insufficient to enable catch-up with their Western European counterparts. Additionally, these countries have experienced significant inflation rates in recent years, resulting in a notable decline in real wages for workers. Therefore, the gap between labour productivity and workers' wages has not only failed to diminish but has, in fact, widened over the past few decades.
 The primary objective of this paper is to examine the interrelationships among labour productivity, workers' wages, and inflation in Central and Southeast European countries, specifically the Balkan EU countries, Balkan non-EU countries, and the Visegrád group of countries. The findings reveal a short-term causality among inflation, labour productivity, and the statutory minimum wage in these three groups of countries. Furthermore, there is evidence of a bidirectional causal relationship running from the minimum wage and inflation to labour productivity, and vice versa, in the short term. Additionally, the introduction of a minimum wage shock significantly influences the future values of labour productivity and inflation. The adverse effects of an externally induced increase in the statutory minimum wage are particularly noticeable in Western Balkan non-EU countries.

Quality hours: Measuring labor input

We construct an aggregate labor input series from 1979 to 2019 to adjust for changes in the experience and education levels of the workforce using the Current Population Survey’s Outgoing Rotation Groups. We compare the cyclical behavior of labor input to aggregate hours — finding that labor input is about 9% less volatile over the business cycle and that the quality of the workforce is countercyclical. We show that the decrease in labor productivity beginning in 2004, the “productivity slowdown,” is understated by 12 percentage points when using aggregate hours instead of labor input to calculate productivity, as compared to the 1990–2003 growth rate. Moreover, 39% of the average quarterly growth rate of labor productivity can be attributed to increases in education and experience since 2004.

Оценка реализации национальных проектов в сфере транспортной инфраструктуры (на примере регионов ЮФО)

The article analyzes the preliminary results of the implementation of the “Safe Quality Roads” and “Comprehensive Plan for the Modernization and Expansion of Main Infrastructure” projects, and identifies the regional features of their implementation for individual regions of the Southern Federal District - the Rostov region, the Krasnodar Territory, the Republic of Crimea. By 2022, the basic values ​​for individual target indicators have been achieved and, in general, given the existing positive dynamics in 2024, the rest will most likely be achieved. At the same time, project passports require revision taking into account regional characteristics. In Crimea, the share of roads that meet regulatory requirements is determined at a fairly low level - 38.8%, and with the current trend towards an increase in freight turnover, motorization, and tourist flow, road safety is significantly reduced, as evidenced by high accident rates. In this regard, target indicators for the quality of the road network should be revised upward. For the Rostov region, the federal project “Road Network” should include a list of agglomerations and for each of them the values ​​of basic indicators should be determined. Particular attention should be paid to the issue of transport support for small isolated settlements in all regional passports. “Safe Quality Roads” and “Comprehensive Plan for the Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure” are labor-intensive and capital-intensive projects that require modern equipment and technologies. Infrastructure development will support the overall economic strategy. However, to achieve the assigned tasks, it is necessary to mobilize industrial production so that the modernization and creation of infrastructure is provided with domestic equipment and technologies. Based on the results of 2021, it can be argued that a qualitative transformation of the economy, accompanied by an acceleration in the growth rate of labor productivity, did not occur.

Demographic Globalization: Contribution to Global Economic Growth in Long-Term Perspective

Demography is one of the important factors of the Great Convergence. We estimate the contribution of the demographic factor to the prospective GDP dynamics for all countries of the world up to 2100. We use a long-term economic growth model that is based on estimates of labor productivity growth rates and incorporates the demographic forecast for both population and life expectancy. Globally, our model estimates long-term economic growth of world GDP at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent, of which the demographic factor accounts for 0.54 percentage points, or about one-third (31.8 per cent) of the projected world economic growth in the twenty-first century. In our forecasts, we have relied on the logic of the previous research on convergence, which considered a sufficiently high level of the human capital development and a sufficient degree of economic openness as necessary conditions for convergence, which have now largely been achieved throughout the world precisely through the globalization processes (especially in the core and the semi-periphery of the World System). However, the inclusion of the demographic projections in our forecasts allows us to emphasize an important feature of the perspective convergence – it is not the semi-periphery, but rather the periphery of the World System, or the ‘bottom billion’ according to Collier, that is likely to converge particularly rapidly with both the core and the semi-periphery (such as the BRICS countries) thanks to favorable demographic structure. The paper has been prepared within the framework of RANEPA state assignment in 2023.

A Sraffian model of Pasinetti's natural economic system

Pasinetti's (1981) natural economic system is a central idea of Pasinetti's structural economic dynamics, which explains various features of a growing economy, focusing on an evolving structure of commodity prices, an evolving structure of production, and the time pass of the wage rate and the rate of profit (Pasinetti, 1981, p.128). It exhibits three core properties: first, the sum of the growth rate of the quantity of labour and the growth rate of demand or the growth rate of labour productivity determines the rate of profit (the natural rate of profit). Second, under a ‘positive’ natural rate of profit, the quantity of labour commanded by a commodity equals the quantity of labour embodied in the commodity (a pure labour theory of value). Finally, equal rewards should be paid for equal amounts of homogenous labour (the basic principle of equal rewards). These core properties were examined, using our Sraffian discrete-time models corresponding to the three cases. The first model explains the simple case of a growing economy with no technical change and an invariant composition of demand. The second model treats the difference between the actual net product and the standard net product, assuming no technical change and an invariant composition of demand. The third model explains the occurrence of technical progress in a growing economy. The validity of three core properties of the natural economic system in Pasinetti (1981) is examined by three Sraffian models.

Влияние отраслевой структуры на динамику производительности труда в экономике США

The importance of labor productivity growth increases in the context of economic regionalization, which requires an economy-wide restructuring. In the United States of America, which continues its policy of reindustrial development, protectionism, and the suppression of competing countries by all means, the role of the structural factor in the dynamics of labor productivity is not uniform. The paper presents a theoretical analysis and methodological possibility of calculating the relationship between such economic categories and processes as labor productivity and its decline in the US economy, on the one hand, and structural changes in the American economy, on the other hand. Based on the use of the index method with the conversion of material resources into labor costs, an attempt was made to empirically identify the different impacts of specific industries (sectors) of the US economy on changes in labor productivity. The chronological period for calculating the system of necessary indices takes into account 2005 as the base year used for comparison with 2022. The results obtained indicate the beginning of a “reindustrial turn” in the US economy, which created the basis for the gradual recovery of the lost growth rates of labor productivity, together with the sector of information and communication services. It is noted that the movement of workers with relatively low qualifications from the manufacturing sectors of the American economy to the service sector, along with an increase in working hours, contributes to a decrease in labor productivity in a number of service industries. An increase in the role of the structural factor in the dynamics of labor productivity in those industries that most actively respond to the possibility of reducing labor costs in the context of growing technologization of economic activity is revealed. The conclusion is made about the information-industrial orientation of the structural changes observed in the United States over the period under study, which provides for a structural transformation of the labor market in the direction of increasing the efficiency of labor costs per unit of working time.

법인세의 분배효과에 관한 연구

This study analyzes the effect of corporate income tax on income distribution in Korea. Studies on the economic effects of corporate income tax have mainly focused on investment and employment effects. This research trend is due to the prevailing idea that the investment effect of corporate income tax is decisive, employment and wages are determined incidentally, and that companies are merely conduits for distributing profits to shareholders. However, corporate income tax also affects the labor income share and household income distribution through changes in employment and wages, dividends, and internal reserve fund of a company. If corporate income tax cuts increase investment, but employment growth is weak and real wage growth rates falls short of labor productivity growth rates, the labor income share will decrease and household income inequality will widen. According to the results of the empirical research, the effects of corporate income tax rate on investment and employment are weak. The expanded investment is also capital-intensive, so the employment effect is not significant, and more the real wage increase does not keep up with labor productivity. As a result, a reduction in the effective corporate income tax rate lowers the labor income share and increases income inequality. Therefore, to increase the distribution effect of corporate income tax, corporate income tax should be reformed in a way that supports employment growth and real wage increases while including investment.

Проектный подход-инструмент повышения эффективности субъектов предпринимательства аграрной сферы

The article examines the project approach as a tool to improve the efficiency of entrepreneurial activity of participants in the national project "Labor Productivity and Employment Increase". The results of the analysis of agricultural organizations, distributed by characteristics, showed that they differ both in the core type of activity (cultivation of grain and leguminous crops; breeding of pigs and poultry; provision of services, etc.) and in scale (small, medium and large enterprises). Moreover, the same agricultural organization, depending on the criterion of attribution to a business entity, may have an average size in terms of the number of employees and a small one in terms of sales revenue. The differentiation in the growth rate (decrease) of labor productivity is determined, calculated: 1) by sales revenue; 2) at net value added. In the first embodiment, the value of labor productivity is influenced by changes in the volume and price of sales. The results of the analysis confirm that in agricultural organizations in which labor productivity growth has been achieved, measures have been taken to optimize technological processes.

The impact of ethnic fractionalisation on labor productivity: Does firm size matter?

AbstractEthnic fractionalisation has both positive and negative consequences. We contend that the positive effects of skill complementarity in the production process apply to large firms. Because small businesses rely more on public goods and have less access to institutions, the negative effects of lower quality public goods and higher transaction costs have a greater impact on them. Consistent with this viewpoint, we find that larger firm size significantly mitigates the negative impact of higher ethnic fractionalisation on the level and growth rate of labor productivity in manufacturing firms across 84 developing countries. Evidence on the potential mechanisms is provided.

Education, innovations and development of local markets in CEE countries: problems and perspectives

This paper presents brief results of the analysis of educational potential dynamics and its relation with development of regional labour markets. The educational potential is described by the structure of the economically active population with different levels of education. The aim of the research was to study the impact of the educational potential of the economically active population on the development of regional markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Authors used for research the Eurostat data for the NUTS2 regions of the following CEE countries: Austria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Analysis of the distribution of educational potential of the economically active population of these CEE countries at the regional level was carried out using the methods of spatial econometrics and statistics. Research results demonstrated: insufficient response of local markets to changes in the structure of educational potential and the level of investment in fixed assets; strong state regulation of the unemployment rate in the former post-socialist countries (Czechia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia); complex relationships between labour productivity growth rates, average wages, changes in educational potential and unemployment rates; significant influence of the surrounding regional environment on the socio-economic processes taking place in certain regions.

Statistical scenario of labor productivity development in dairy cattle breeding of the Bryansk region

Relevance. In the context of deglobalization, economic sanctions, and the disintegration of the world economy, the most important socio-economic and political task is to ensure the food and economic security of Russia and its regions. In connection with the new demands of practice caused by the formation of the market mechanism of management, changes in the forms and methods of state support for dairy cattle farming, further research of the problem of increasing the productivity of the industry is required. Methods. The information base of the study was the materials of regional statistics, annual reports of agricultural organizations of the regional agro-industrial complex, data from the consolidated annual report on the totality of the districts of the Bryansk region. The study was conducted on the basis of studying mass data using a set of methods: dialectical, economic-statistical, correlation-regression, computational-constructive, abstract-logical and other methods. Results. Using statistical methods, the authors evaluated the established patterns and trends in the dynamics of labor productivity in dairy cattle farming in the Bryansk region. The growth rates of wages and labor productivity have been determined. The strategy of development of the studied indicator in the future, taking into account the factors affecting its level, is revealed. Significant factors of labor productivity growth in dairy cattle farming are the selling price of 1 ts of milk, the load of cows on 1 operator of machine milking, the stock of labor, the average monthly salary of the operator of machine milking. At the same time, the main reserves of labor productivity growth are laid down in the factors of wages and workload of dairy cattle workers. In the work, based on a multiple regression model, a forecast of labor productivity for the medium term is carried out.

Examining the influence mechanism of artificial intelligence development on labor income share through numerical simulations

Maintaining the stability of labor income share is a key foundation for optimizing the structure of income distribution. Based on Chinese macroeconomic data, this study constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model with production tasks and applies numerical simulation to investigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) development on labor income share. The results demonstrate that the influence direction of AI development on labor income share depends on the relative speed of machine replacement and new tasks. Mechanism analysis reveals that machine replacement makes the wage growth rate smaller than the labor productivity growth rate, causing a decline in labor income share; however, new tasks can offset this negative impact, and the faster the growth is, the more obvious this offsetting effect is. Further numerical simulation confirms the above. Our study extends the research on labor income share, providing a new approach for understanding the changing mechanism of labor income share in China.

Revisiting Baumol’s growth disease in Japan

This study analyzes the cause of secular stagnation in Japan after the economic bubble and its association with industrial structural change, specifically Baumol’s growth disease (BGD). Our analysis updates Nishi and focuses on the period between 1995 and 2018 using the latest version of the JIP (Japan Industrial Productivity) database. Then, we ask “Is Japan suffering from BGD?” Our approach includes decomposition of the aggregate labor productivity growth rate, fixed-share growth rate (FSGR) measurement, and a transition probability matrix. The decomposition reveals that the within-sector effect (WSE) is the main source of aggregate labor productivity. The reallocation growth effect (RGE), which measures BGD, was negative for both the short- and long-run averages of the post-1995 period. This period is different from the previous one, as the WSE declined significantly, and the considerable decline in the WSE can be seen as a major factor in Japan’s stagnation over the past 30 years. During this stagnation, BGD silently undermined the Japanese economy, albeit as a secondary effect. Furthermore, our FSGR and transition probability matrix show that persists and is infectious in Japan. Sectors that undergo BGD tend to persist in this state, and even when one sector is in a non-BGD state, it is more likely to develop BGD.

Методический подход к достижению баланса интересов сельскохозяйственных организаций, их работников и государства

The state is interested in increasing the volume of agricultural production, but state support for agricultural production is limited. The activity of agricultural organizations is profitable, but the achieved level of profitability is still insufficient for a significant expansion of production. The low level of remuneration of agricultural workers does not create sufficient incentives for labor productivity growth. The use of the profit factor model constructed by the authors makes it possible to create a basis for the formation of vectors of interests of the state, producers and workers in one direction in such a way that state support creates the possibility of additional labor costs. Subject to compliance with the requirement of a faster rate of labor productivity growth, this will contribute to the growth of profits of commercial agricultural organizations received from an ever-increasing volume of production.

The fundamental principle of providing enhanced reproduction in enterprises

It is noted that the article attaches great importance to such principles as the principle of the excess of labor productivity growth over wage growth. Compliance with this principle will allow resolving the contradiction between the economic interests of the employer and employees. The issue of labor productivity should be considered along with wages and living standards. With low wages, one cannot speak of an increase in productivity, just as with low productivity one cannot speak of decent wages and their growth. The purpose of the study is to offer some methodological features of the calculations for comparing the growth rates of labor productivity and staff wages, to show their simplicity and accessibility. The article used economic-mathematical and graphic methods of research. On the example of the agricultural enterprise SRL "Agrosolidax" of the Ceadir-Lungsky district for 2016-2021, compliance with the basic principle of exceeding the growth of labor productivity compared to the growth of its payment is shown. The calculation results are shown in the graphs. The fundamental principle of ensuring expanded reproduction in enterprises presented in the article is quite accessible and easy to use. It can be used both for educational purposes and in existing enterprises.

Features of spatial and structural transformations of the economy: European experience and Ukrainian realities

The article focuses on the study of the structural features of the economy of the EU member states and Ukraine. Labor productivity and capital productivity in a sectoral section are analyzed. In particular, changes in the dynamics of labor and capital productivity during 2014-2021 are examined. Based on the results, the sectors that are leaders and can act as determinants of the productive capacity of Ukraine and its regions are identified. The article reveals that the most intensive growth of labor productivity is recorded in such sectors as temporary accommodation and organization of food, as well as information and telecommunications. Capital productivity under the prevailing instability of the dynamics of this indicator is recorded only in construction and in information and telecommunications. The regions of Ukraine are ranked and grouped according to the intensity of labor productivity growth. The comparative analysis of the rates of growth (decline) of capital productivity in the sectors of the economy of Ukraine is carried out. It shows that the growth rate of labor productivity exceeds that of capital productivity. Based on the assessment of the ratio of wage growth rates and labor productivity in the economic sectors, the hypothesis regarding the predominance of labor productivity growth rates over wage growth rates in the majority of the economic sectors is verified. Drivers contributing to the growth of the productive capacity of economic sectors are characterized. The main strategic priorities of the structural transformations of the domestic economy in wartime and post-war recovery are determined, in particular regarding the development of the military-defense complex, which will ensure the long-term political and economic security of Ukraine and the development of industrial and innovative structural elements of the country’s economic system. The article emphasizes the need to create and develop a national innovation platform, which should be a component of the innovation market and the formation of the state system of legal protection of intellectual property, the demands for reform of which were put forward in the process of deepening European integration reforms.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES BETWEEN TWO GLOBAL CRISES AND BEYOND

The aim of the article is to assess the factors of economic growth of the CEE countries over the 30-year history, the productivity of capital and human resources, the resilience of these countries to the negative impact of the global financial crisis. Methodology. The Solow growth model was used to estimate the growth rates of capital, labor and total factor productivity (TFP). The impact of macroeconomic indicators on GDP and TFP growth is assessed. The group of Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union was chosen for the analysis: Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, as well as post-Soviet European countries: Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and Moldova and Albania in the period from 1991 to 2019. Results. TFP makes a significant contribution to the economic growth of CEE countries. During the period of market reforms, TFP significantly decreased, and during the boom of 2000-2008 it fully ensured the growth of the CEE economies, after the crisis of 2008, the contribution of TFP decreased by 2 times. In the conditions of recovery, TFP growth is positively influenced by inflation, negative CA balance, and unemployment reduction. In the post-crisis period, a decrease in inflation, a positive CA balance, and an increase in unemployment had a positive impact on TFP growth. During a depression, the influence of capital becomes dominant. Restrictive monetary policy contributes to the efficiency of CEE economies. In the short run, unemployment increases, but in the long run it decreases significantly due to the growth of investment and exports. Practical implications. The analysis makes it possible to identify effective macroeconomic policies to stimulate the productivity of the economies of Central and Eastern Europe during the period of economic recovery and depression. Value/originality. A long-term study of the economic performance of CEE countries using the Solow methodology has revealed the behavior of total factor productivity in different periods of modern economic history and its contribution to economic growth.

DEMOECONOMICS: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND IMPLEMENTATION OF NATIONAL PROJECTS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

In the process of implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), each country uses its own established mechanisms that contribute to the implementation of the Goals at the national level. The article presents an overview of research on the theoretical and practical aspects of sustainable development in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan. Special attention is paid to the SDGs adopted by the United Nations in 2015. The relationship of the SDGs with the National Projects adopted in the Russian Federation and valid until 2024 and the strategic projects of the Republic of Kazakhstan presented in the "Strategy 2030", which were first announced in 1997 in the Presidential address, is shown. It is determined that in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan there is an annual collection and analysis of data in the field of sustainable development according to the methods developed by the United Nations. It is noted that the main reason for the decline in the main indicators of sustainable development in 2020, including the growth rate of labor productivity, is the outbreak of the COVID-2019 pandemic. The interrelation of the Sustainable Development Goals with the introduced indicator "demoeconomics" is shown, which, along with such parameters as "demoethics", "demography" and "democracy", is a criterion for the harmonious socio-economic development of society.

Анализ факторов, влияющих на перспективы повышения производительности труда

The article is devoted to issues concerning the prospects for the formation of a comprehensive system of measures to improve labor productivity. Based on the research of various authors in the course of determining the key factors for increasing labor productivity, it was found that their qualitative and quantitative composition primarily depends on the industry in which the enterprise operates. An analysis was carried out of some statistical indicators characterizing, first of all, directly the growth rates of labor productivity in general, by individual industries and indicators relating to the labor force as a whole, average annual employment and the number of unemployed. The article conducted a study of the influence of external and internal environmental factors on the activities of enterprises dedicated to improving productivity. In the course of the study, it was found that in order to have a steady rate of labor productivity growth, it is necessary to provide assistance from the state that affects not only the internal environment of organizations, but also the external environment. Support measures should be of a comprehensive systemic nature and extend at the first stage to priority industries whose enterprises produce products with guaranteed demand. This will create a complex of enterprises that have the necessary monetary foundation for further independent functioning and development.