Changes In Labor Force Research Articles

Young children and women's labour force participation in Russia, 1992–20041

AbstractWe document the changing labour force participation patterns of women with young children in Russia during 1992–2004. In this period maternity leave benefits became less generous, and childcare was privatized and became increasingly scarce. Using nationally representative household survey data it is shown that in 1992, there was essentially no association between the probability of a woman being a labour force participant and her having a child under age 3. However, by 2004, having children under age 3 had become associated with significantly reduced participation and employment probabilities, conditional on other observable characteristics of women and their households, and local factors. Several potential explanations for these findings are discussed.

Participation Rate and Labour Force Growth in Canada

This paper analyzes the determinants of participation rate movements in Canada from the early 1950s through the 1970s, with a particular focus on the socio-economic determinants of the changing labour force attachment of successive cohorts of adult men and women and young persons, and develops projections of participation rate and labour force growth to the year 2000. A wide variety of sociological and economic forces is identified as contributing to the remarkably steady growth of women's labour force participation since the early 1950s including: the rising material aspirations of families; the development of new birth control techniques; very pronounced changes in attitudes with respect to desired family size; changes in women’s personal aspirations, as reflected in the increasing average educational attainments of women; the sharply rising incidence of marriage break-down and divorce; the expansion of the service sectors of industrialized economies; and the growth in the range of household labour-saving devices and convenience products. Notably,the largest increases in women's participation rates were recorded by women with very young children present in the home. The apparent stability of the participation rate of adult men is identified as resulting from different influences working in opposite directions; namely rising average educational attainments that operated to increase their participation and improvements in social security and other factors that worked to decrease their participation. For young persons, labour force participation patterns appear to be related to changes in the economic returns to higher education. The high monetary rewards to further education in the 1950s and 1960s were associated with declining participation rates and rising school enrollment rates; the decline in the returns to education in the 1970s was associated with declining (or more slowly rising) enrollment rates, and rising participation rates.,

Liberalization and Growth: An Econometric Study of Bangladesh

Bangladesh adopted a liberal economic regime, particularly in the areas of trade, finance, and capital account, since mid-1980s. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of liberalization on the country’s economic growth by analyzing the 1974-2002 data with the help of cointegration and error correction methods. The empirical results suggest that long-run economic growth in Bangladesh is largely explained by physical capital and real interest rate and growth remains unaffected by short-term changes in labor force and secondary enrollment ratio. While financial liberalization has had significant negative impacts on economic growth implying that financial reforms failed to attract new investment due to adverse investment climate, the effects of trade and capital account liberalizations were rather insignificant, possibly due to weak supply response and lack of credibility of such reform programs. Bangladesh will not reap the full benefits of any comprehensive liberalization measures unless it can improve infrastructure and quality of governance, the paper argues.

Demografische Effekte auf das künftige Arbeitsangebot in Deutschland – eine Dekompositionsanalyse

This paper provides a decomposition of the projected change in the overall labour force into three parts. The first, called the “demographic component“, shows the effects of fertility, mortality and a changing age structure of the population. The second effect is the migration component. This part is due to the cumulative net inflow of migrants, but includes their reproductive behaviour as well. Changes in the participation rates give the third effect, the participation rate component. The decomposition was done by comparing different labour force scenarios up to 2050. The method can easily be extended for decomposition into more than three factors. According to our results, the negative impact of the demographic factor on the labour force is very clear and is caused by the projected ageing of population to a great extent. Neither a strong increase in labour participation nor high immigration flows can stop the downward trend in labour force. Keeping the labour force constant requires an annual net migration of about 400,000 persons. This would be approximately twice as much as during the last 50 years. As the age structure is almost given and increasing fertility rates only have positive effects in the very long run, the projected decline in labour force should be taken as a fact. <bold>Zusammenfassung</bold> Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Faktoren, von denen das künftige Arbeitskräfteangebot beeinflusst wird. Die Veränderung des sog. Erwerbspersonenpotenzials wurde dazu in die Haupteinflussfaktoren Demografie im engeren Sinne (natürliche Bevölkerungsbewegung einschließlich der Alterung), Wanderungen und Erwerbsverhalten zerlegt. Die verwendete Methode beruht auf einem Vergleich verschiedener Szenarien. Die Zerlegung kann leicht um weitere Einflussfaktoren erweitert werden. Als Daten lagen vom Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) veröffentlichte Szenarien für das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial bis 2050 vor. Die Dekomposition führte zu dem erwarteten Ergebnis, dass vor allem die Demografie das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial sinken lässt, wobei die Alterung der Bevölkerung einen erheblichen Teil dazu beiträgt. Etwas überraschend war allerdings die Stärke des demografischen Effekts. Weder ein starker Anstieg der Erwerbsquoten noch eine im langfristigen Durchschnitt hohe Zuwanderung können den Rückgang des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials stoppen. Um das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial im Umfang stabil zu halten, bräuchte es eine jährliche Nettozuwanderung, die etwa doppelt so hoch sein müsste wie in den vergangenen 50 Jahren. Die Alterung der Bevölkerung lässt sich zuverlässig weit vorausschätzen. Auch wirkt ein deutlicher Abbau des Geburtendefizits erst sehr langfristig. Deshalb muss davon ausgegangen werden, dass die Projektionen einen hohen Grad an Eintretenswahrscheinlichkeit haben und der Rückgang des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials über einen sehr langen Zeitraum kaum mehr aufzuhalten ist. <italic>JEL-Classification: J11, J21, F22</italic> Received: January 31, 2008 Accepted: April 2, 2009

National Estimates of Retention, Migration, and Attrition

This study was designed to estimate the magnitude of retention, migration, and attrition of music teachers; the transfer destinations of those who migrated; the career path status of those who left; and the likelihood that former music teachers would return to teaching. Data, which were analyzed for music ( n = 881) and non-music teachers ( n = 17,376), came from the 1988—1989, 1991—1992, 1993—1994, and 2000—2001 administrations of the National Center for Education Statistics's Teacher Follow-up Survey, a national survey designed to compile comprehensive data concerning changes in the teacher labor force. Results indicated that between 1988 and 2001, 84% of music teachers were retained by schools, 10% migrated to different schools, and 6% left the profession every year, in rates similar to non-music teachers. Transferring music teachers migrated primarily to different school districts in the same state. One year after leaving the profession, former teachers were attending college (28%), retired (23%), out of teaching (21%), in education but not as a teacher (14%), or working as a homemaker (12%). Approximately one third of former music teachers planned to return to teaching within 5 years, and an additional quarter planned to return after 5 or more years.

Can good events lead to bad outcomes? Endogenous banking crises and fiscal policy responses

In this paper, we study the impact of changes in the urban labor force and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and bank failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate, or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing.

Unemployment and Inflation in Western Europe: Solution by the Boundary Integral Method

Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in labor force. Originally, the model linking unemployment to inflation and labor force was developed and successfully tested for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United States. Autoregressive properties of neither of these variables are used to predict their evolution. In this sense, the model is a self-consistent and completely deterministic one without any stochastic component (external shocks) except that associated with measurement errors and changes in measurement units. Nevertheless, the model explains between ~65% and ~95% of the variability in unemployment and inflation. For Italy, the rate of unemployment is predicted at a time horizon of nine (!) years with pseudo out-of-sample root-mean-square forecasting error of 0.55% for the period between 1973 and 2006. One can expect that the unemployment will be growing since 2008 and will reach ~11.4% [±0.6 %] near 2012. After 2012, unemployment in Italy will start to descend.

Changing Patterns of Income Inequality in U.S. Counties, 1970–2000

The upswing in economic inequality that has affected a number of advanced industrial societies in the late 20th century has been particularly conspicuous in the United States. The authors explore its causes using data on the distribution of family income in 3,098 U.S. counties in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000. The authors build a model of within-county income inequality that assumes that distribution processes involving labor market and sociodemographic variables operate primarily at the county level and those involving the political and institutional context operate primarily at the state level. Multilevel methods are used to distinguish county cross-sectional, state cross-sectional, and longitudinal effects on inequality. The authors find that, when features of the state-level institutional and political context are associated with inequality, these effects are larger longitudinally than cross-sectionally. A range of other factors, including economic development, labor force changes, shifts in the racial/ethnic and gender composition of the labor force, educational expansion, and urbanization are found to have comparatively large effects, both longitudinally and cross-sectionally.

Is demography destiny? The role of structural and demographic factors in Australis past and future labour supply

Following the release of the Intergenerational Report, the Australian Treasury identified the levers to address the economic effects of demographic ageing as 'the three Ps': population, participation and productivity. To date, the first 'P', population, has been treated as an exogenous factor, with the common view being that there is very little that the government can do to supplant demographic ageing. Focusing upon labour supply, this paper shows how variation in Australia's underlying demography can significantly alter Australia's future labour supply. Although governments cannot redirect the cohort flow component of population ageing, much can be achieved in promoting growth of the labour supply by maintaining or increasing fertility (in the longer term), or increasing targeted migration (in the short to medium term). This paper also decomposes the relative role of cohort flow, changing demography and changing labour force participation on the growth of the labour supply over the past 20 years. Over this period, the entry of the baby boom generation (cohort flow) and increased labour force participation of women accounted for almost all of the growth in the labour force. Changing demography had very little effect. However, Australia's future labour supply will not include a large increase in cohort flow (as caused by the baby boomers) or a very large increase in female labour force participation. Regardless of the assumptions used, labour supply growth will be considerably lower in the next and subsequent 20 years, when compared to the previous 20.

Changing Demographic of Labor Force and Productivity: A Case of Japan

Abstract For the period of 1978-2003, this paper examines the relationship between changing productivity and demographic characteristics of Japan's labor force. The results of this study reveal four important and interesting characteristics of the Japanese labor force. First, there is a negative relationship between productivity growth and turnover rates. Second, the participation rate of younger workers in the labor force has declined; this has resulted in a decline in the percentage of younger workers (15-34 years old). Third, the gender distribution of the labor force has not changed in any significant way. Fourth, the unemployment rate has increased by more than four times. These labor force changes have contributed to fluctuations in productivity growth.

Changing Trends in the Labor Force: A Survey

The composition of the American workforce has changed dramatically over the past half century as a result of both the emergence of married women as a substantial component of the labor force and an increase in the number of minority workers. The aging of the population has contributed to this change as well. In this paper, the authors review the evidence of changing labor force participation rates, estimate the trends in labor force participation over the past 50 years, and find that aggregate participation has stabilized after a period of persistent increases. Moreover, they examine the disparate labor force participation experiences of different demographic groups. Finally, they survey some of the studies that have provided explanations for these differences.

Employment Protection Reforms, Employment and the Incidence of Temporary Jobs in Europe: 1995-2001

Using European Community Household Panel data for nine countries for 1996-2001, I investigate the impact of reforms of employment protection systems on employment and on temporary jobs for wage and salary workers. Individual fixed effects models are estimated, with the inclusion of country-specific trends in the dependent variable, addressing the possibly changing labor force composition and the possible endogeneity of the reforms. A basic finding that is robust to all specifications and to the disaggregation of the sample by country is that policies making it easier to create temporary jobs raise the likelihood that wage and salary workers will be in temporary jobs. However, there is no evidence that such reforms raise employment, and in some countries, they appear to lower employment. Thus, these reforms appear rather to encourage a substitution of temporary for permanent work. Reforms of permanent employment protection mandates have small and insignificant effects on employment and temporary jobs on average. Moreover, when I disaggregate by country, such reforms appear more often to lower overall employment and to lower the share of employment in permanent jobs. These are likely to reflect short run impacts of such reforms, which make it easier for firms to discharge substandard workers.

Identifikasi Faktor-Faktor Diskriminasi Gender yang Mempengarrhi Karir Karyawan Wanita di Kota Yogyakarta

Statistically, the number of women who works outside household is getting increase. As a part of worfforce, woman not only takes a position as general employee but they are also employed as a manager. It indicates that woman plays an important role in organization. In other words it can be said that the globol labor force has changed. Change in labor force involved an aging worfforce and a diverse worffirce. Furthermore diversity exists within labor force. As a result organizations cannot afford to ignore or discount the potential contributions of wornen. At the same time work opportunity for women is also more available. Women, howqer find dfficulties that hinder them in pursuing a success in career. This hindrances result fro* the social and culture concept that the nature of a woman is a houssvyife. In fact women who hold a dual career hme a more responsibility either to their emplolters or to their household. Being a dual career people, women show a high work motivation and good performance. This paper examines the affecting factorson wornen coreer in term of sex discrimination that is discrimination on grounds of gender. The result shows that there are five gender discrimination factors affecting woman career.Kqtwords : woman car e er, gender, divers ity, culture, dis crimination.

An Assessment of Potential Foodservice Organizational Development Within the Privatization Process of Eastern Europe

This article is a review of current economic and development issues facing the Eastern European region (EE). The review is designed to highlight major points of interest for potential foodservice operators looking to invest in the economic developing region. Since 1989, the former Soviet Bloc has been opening its economic borders for foreign investment and growth. Foodservice organizations such as McDonald's and Pizza Hut have been aggressively expanding in the region to meet the labor force and infrastructure changes occurring in the region. This review of compiled data is designed future foodservice operators the current and future climate in the EE and provides such vital data for making investment decisions such as overall meat, chicken, fish, and pork consumption in each EE country, economic growth and development throughout the EE, and current trade relations amongst EE countries and the United States. Readers will be able to use this data to develop an understanding on how to invest and develop foodservice organizations in the EE.

Linear Lagged Relationship Between Inflation, Unemployment and Labor Force Change Rate in France: Cointegration Test

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, ?(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by A0=-1, A1=4, A2=0.095, t0=4 years, and t1=4 years. For GDP deflator, it provides a root mean square forecasting error (RMFSE) of 1.0% at a four-year horizon for the period between 1971 and 2004. The relationship is tested for cointegration. All three variables involved in the relationship are proved to be integrated of order one. Two methods of cointegration testing are used. First is the Engle-Granger approach based on the unit root test in the residuals of linear regression, which also includes a number of specification tests. Second method is the Johansen cointegration rank test based on a VAR representation, which is also proved to be an adequate one via a set of appropriate tests. Both approaches demonstrate that the variables are cointegrated and the long-run equilibrium relation revealed in previous study holds together with statistical estimates of goodness-of-fit and RMSFE. Relationships between inflation and labor force and between unemployment and labor force are tested separately in appropriate time intervals, where the Banque de France monetary policy introduced in 1995 does not disturb the long-term links. All the individual relationships are cointegrated in corresponding intervals. The VAR and vector error correction (VEC) models are estimated and provide just a marginal improvement in RMSFE at the four-year horizon both for GDP deflator (down to 0.9%) and CPI (~1.1%) on the results obtained in the regression study. The VECM approach also allows re-estimation of the coefficients in the individual and generalized relationship between the variables both for cointegration rank 1 and 2. Comparison of the standard cointegration approach to the integral approach to the estimation of the coefficients in the individual and generalized relationships between the studied variables demonstrates the superiority of the latter. The cumulative inflation curve or inflation index, which is the actually measured evolution of price level, is much better predicted in the framework of the integral approach, which is a powerful tool for revealing true relationships between non-stationary variables and can be potentially used for rejection of spurious regression. The cumulative curves allow avoiding obvious drawbacks of the VECM representation and cointegration tests - increasing signal to noise ratio after differentiation and severe dependence on statistical properties of error terms. The confirmed validity of the linear lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change indicates that since 1995 the Banque de France has been wrongly applying the policy fixing the monetary growth to the reference value around 4.5%. As a result of the policy, during the last ten years unemployment in France was twice as large as the one dictated by its long-term equilibrium link to labor force change. This increased unemployment compensates the forced price stability.

Inflation as a Function of Labor Force Change Rate: Cointegration Test for the USA

Previously, a linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, π(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A1 and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for the USA is characterized by A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a root mean square forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best among other inflation forecasting models) and has a perfect parsimony - only one predictor. The relationship is tested for cointegration. Both variables are integrated of order one according to the presence of a unit root in the series and its absence in their first differences. Two methods of cointegration testing are applied - the Engle-Granger one based on the unit root test of the residuals including a variety of specification tests and the Johansen cointegration rank test based on the VAR representation. Both approaches demonstrate that the variables are cointegrated and the long-run equilibrium relation revealed in previous study holds. According to the Granger causality test, the labor force change is proved to be a weakly exogenous variable - a natural result considering the time lead and the existence of a cointegrating relation. VAR and VECM representations do not provide any significant improvement in RMSFE. There are numerous applications of the equation: from purely theoretical - a robust fundamental relation between macroeconomic and population variables, to a practical one - an accurate out-of-sample inflation forecasting at a two-year horizon and a long-term prediction based on labor force projections. The predictive power of the relationship is inversely proportional to the uncertainty of labor force estimates. Therefore, future inflation research programs should start from a significant improvement in the accuracy of labor force estimations

Immigration and changing labour force structure in the Southern European Union

Dans un contexte de tres forte croissance des flux d’immigration, cette note vise a analyser les evolutions de la structure de la main-d’œuvre en Espagne et a les comparer avec celles des autres pays meridionaux de l’Union (la Grece, l’Italie et le Portugal) et de la France (vieux pays d’immigration internationale). On examine les dynamiques a l’œuvre dans chaque secteur d’activite, en distinguant ceux dans lesquels il existe une substitution de la main-d’œuvre etrangere a la main-d’œuvre autochtone, ceux qui sont caracterises par une croissance conjointe des deux groupes, et ceux qui apparaissent davantage reserves aux actifs nationaux. Les resultats montrent que l’Espagne, l’Italie et la Grece partagent des caracteristiques similaires – et differentes des modeles representes par la France et le Portugal – qui s’expliquent notamment par le fait que dans ces pays, la hausse du niveau d’instruction des jeunes generations et de la participation des femmes au marche du travail comparativement aux generations precedentes a ete particulierement importante.

Are gross job flows in Australia sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations?

Labour markets in Australia are at the constant state of uncertainty. Specific jobs are continually created and destroyed as firms expand, adjust to changing labour force characteristics. This article focuses on the issue of job creation and the occupational mobility in Australia. It also deals with the changes in the exchange rates of currency.

Impact of the Changing Labor Force on the Rate of Employment in Urban India

Population growth has transformed the structure of developing countries' labor markets from dual sector to tri-sector. The third sector is the informal labor market. This paper attempts to analyze how changes in demographic factors have affected the natural rate of employment among the informal labor force and how much of the change in the overall rate of employment is attributable to the change in the employment rate of formal and informal workers. The total informal employment effect has been decomposed into the pure demographic effect and the pure informal employment effect. Subsequently the overall employment rate is decomposed into the informal employment effect and the formal employment effect. The reference period for the study is 1981 to 2001.In the case of males, the employment effect outweighed the demographic effect. In the case of females, the demographic effect was stronger.

Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in the USA

Inflation in the USA for the period between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of evident rigidity of personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which counters changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking the measured inflation (consumer price index or GDP deflator), unemployment and change in labor force. During the last twenty-five years, unemployment in the USA has been a lagged linear function of inflation. In turn, inflation has also been a lagged linear function of relative change in labor force with time. The lag is currently three years. Only a small decrease in labor force participation rate is currently observed in contrast to a strong increase between 1965 and 1990. According to the indicated relationship, the well-known stagflation period clearly resulted from the lag: the sharp increase in inflation coincided in time with the high unemployment induced by the high inflation period two years before. One can predict the unemployment rate in the USA in the following two years within the accuracy of inflation measurements. For example, the end of 2005 is a pivot point from a period of decreasing unemployment to one of moderate growth from 5% in 2005 to 6% in the middle of 2008. Starting in 1960, cumulative values of the observed and the model predicted unemployment are in agreement with the lag between inflation and unemployment. Inflation is defined by a lagged linear function of rate of change in labor force. The observed and predicted inflation almost coincide for the last forty years of annual measurement values, smoothed by a five-year wide moving window curves and as cumulative curves as well. Deviation of the curves before 1960 can be explained by a degraded accuracy of the measurements. A severe decrease in the rate of change of labor force is expected after 2010. This drop can potentially induce a long-term deflationary period. The same effect has been observed for Japan starting in 1990. There are numerous implications of the results for monetary and social policy-makers. The most important is an absence of any means to control inflation and economic growth except though a reasonable labor policy. In addition, some urgent measures are necessary to prevent the start of a deflationary period in 2010-2012.