Labor Demand Research Articles

Testing the Goodwin Model: Can Distribution Battles Trigger Business Cycles? Evidence from a Behavioral Experiment

AbstractThe Goodwin model provides an important explanation for business cycles with its investment decisions based on pro-cyclical wage fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to test the central hypothesis of the Goodwin model, namely that wage developments influence investments, which creates business cycles. The model used to test this hypothesis was that of a simplified company, where labor demand is related to investments. Thus, more investments lead to higher wages and vice versa. In the behavioral experiment the test subjects played the manager of a company who maximizes their profits through investments. The central assumptions and conclusions of the Goodwin model are supported by behavioral science.

Animal spirits at play? Firm sentiments and labour demand during the COVID‐19 pandemic

Economists have long theorized that sentiments, or spontaneous beliefs that are unjustified by economic fundamentals, are a driver of economic behaviours. In this study, I explore whether such sentiments influenced firms’ behaviours following the outbreak of COVID‐19. Using a sample of Italian firms, I observe that in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak, firms’ expectations about post‐COVID economic recovery largely reflected beliefs unexplained by their COVID‐related experiences. I then show that these beliefs were associated with firms’ labour market behaviours. Firms that displayed more pessimistic beliefs were more likely to implement cost‐cutting labour market measures, such as dismissing employees and reducing work hours.

State-led Maritime Governance, Education and Training Nexus in South Africa

The maritime environment has a significant socio-economic impact on nations, regional and global economies. However, it also experiences many challenges related to safety, security, Education and Training (E & T) which stakeholders such as businesses and government through State institutions play a crucial role in addressing. In addition to high global labour demands, E & T challenges have related to the decreasing number of youth taking up maritime E & T. In addition, technological advancements affect costs, standards, and quality of maritime ET. The Republic of South Africa (RSA) has not been immune to these challenges. Public higher E & T institutions in RSA are the primary providers of tertiary maritime E & T but remain confronted by numerous challenges tied to organisational resources, State funding and the growing demand for increased internal and external capacity. This study’s objective was to examine maritime State-led interventions and challenges in selected public higher E & T institutions offering maritime studies in the coastal province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), RSA. Guided by a Systems Thinking approach, this empirical study adopted a qualitative research methodology utilizing interviews with key knowledge holders and secondary data. It was found that there exists a consensual view that higher E & T institutions offering maritime studies in the province are well positioned to play a more meaningful role in addressing the country’s high unemployment rate. However, the current conditions in maritime E & T have undermined this and resulted in the pursuit of international partnerships to address local deficiencies. These findings are significant to stakeholders involved in maritime higher E & T, State-led maritime interventions, policymaking, governance, management, leadership and administration. The findings of the study also point to the need for a holistic understanding of maritime issues and challenges as maritime E & T is a complex global social space. This could eventually facilitate innovation, enhance leadership and contribute to meaningful and crucial partnerships between developed and more developing nations.

Abstract 4124675: Deep Learning Screening of Cardiac MRIs Uncovers Undiagnosed Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in the UK BioBank

Introduction: The prevalence of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in the UK Biobank based on ICD-10 codes (.07%) is lower than global estimates of disease prevalence (0.2 - 0.5%). Prior studies using this data have remarked on the limitations of findings given likely underdiagnosis. The availability of cardiac MRI scans on a fraction of the participants offers an opportunity to identify missed diagnoses. Aims: This study seeks to utilize a generalizable deep learning model to detect likely cases of undiagnosed hypertrophic cardiomyopathy from cardiac MRIs in the UK Biobank. Methods: The foundational model was trained on a multi-institutional dataset of 14,073 cardiac MRIs via a self-supervised contrastive learning approach that sought to minimize the divergence between scans and their associated radiology reports. The pre-trained model was fine-tuned to diagnose hypertrophic cardiomyopathy on a distinct cohort of 4,870 MRIs with 368 cases of HCM, achieving an AUC of 0.94. The fine-tuned model was applied to the UK Biobank cardiac MRI dataset to ascertain predicted probabilities of HCM. Cases exceeding a threshold of 95% – correlating to the top 0.5% of cases (expected specificity of 97% and sensitivity of 60%) – were screened in for manual reading. In a blinded fashion, a board-certified radiologist was tasked with diagnosing HCM on a sample of cases composed of high and low predicted probabilities. Results: Of the 43,017 patients with cardiac MRIs, only 9 (.02%) had an ICD diagnosis of HCM. 266 cardiac MRIs were manually reviewed: 216 had greater than 95% predicted probability of HCM; 50 negative controls were randomly selected amongst cases with predicted probability less than 10%. The radiologist concurred with an HCM diagnosis for 115 cases (sensitivity 53%, specificity 98%), 112 of which were previously undiagnosed. The prevalence of hypertension and aortic stenosis did not significantly differ between the cohort of true positives (69.2%) and false positives (76.6%). The corrected prevalence of HCM in the UK BioBank MRI cohort is estimated at 0.28%. Conclusions: The findings of this study illustrate the remarkable ability of a generalizable deep learning model to detect undiagnosed cases of a rare disease process from cardiac MRIs. This is an important milestone that may allow for widespread screening of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy while minimizing demand for radiologist labor, and thereby allow patients to reap the substantial benefits of earlier treatment.

Economic impact of retirement on the elderly population: a literature review

ABSTRACT This literature review examines the economic impact of retirement policies on the elderly, focusing on labor supply, consumption, and health. The aging global population pressures public pension systems, prompting reforms like increasing retirement age and reducing benefits, which significantly affect labor supply, demand, and economic growth. The review discusses the effects of retirement age and pension changes on labor supply, the ‘retirement-consumption puzzle,’ where consumption declines at retirement due to changes in time cost and health shocks, and mixed health outcomes post-retirement influenced by health behaviors. China’s fixed retirement policy offers a unique context for studying these effects, highlighting gender-specific impacts. The review emphasizes the need for balanced retirement policies that consider financial sustainability and health implications, promoting retirees’ consumption levels. This comprehensive analysis aids in evaluating retirement policy reforms’ costs and benefits across different institutional contexts.

Modern conditions for reproduction of the educational potential of the Russian workforce

The relevance of the research is related to the need to substantiate the specifics of reproduction of the educational potential of workforce as a key resource that ensures generation of new knowledge, its successful implementation into practice, and innovative development of domestic enterprises. The purpose of the article is to identify and analyse modern conditions for the reproduction of the educational potential of the workforce. The research methodology is based on the use of an integrated and systematic approach to determining them, comparative and statistical methods of analysis. As conditions for the formation of the educational potential in the post-industrial era, the article considers: demographic conditions, globalisation, formation of a unified information space, and digitalisation of the economy, increasing demand for skilled labour, accelerated development of the service sector, and increase in labour migration. The results of the analysis show that in Russia, the reproduction of the educational potential is hampered as a result of the demographic crisis manifested in the continuation of the trend towards natural population decline and an increase in the number of people of retirement age; increase in the scale of external migration of skilled labour; average level of Internet accessibility to the population, and, as a result, insufficient formation of its digital skills. Attention is focused on the growing need of the national economy for personnel with a high educational and qualification level, digital skills, and information culture due to the formation of a unified information space and digitalisation of the economy, accelerated development of the service sector, globalisation, and the increasing role of universities in shaping the general culture of the population. The prospects for further research are to develop an organisational and economic mechanism for reproducing the educational potential of the workforce.

U.S. Job-Seekers' Organizational Justice Perceptions of Emotion AI-Enabled Interviews

Emotion AI is increasingly used to automatically evaluate asynchronous hiring interviews. Although touted for increasing hiring fit and reducing bias, it is unclear how job-seekers perceive emotion AI-enabled asynchronous interviews. This gap is striking, given job-seekers' marginalized position in hiring and how job-seekers with marginalized identities may be particularly vulnerable to this technology's potential harms. Addressing this gap, we conducted exploratory interviews with 14 U.S.-based participants with direct, recent experience with emotion AI-enabled asynchronous interviews. While participants acknowledged the asynchronous, virtual modality's potential benefits to employers and job-seekers, they perceived harms to job-seekers associated with automatic emotion inferences that our analysis maps to distributive, procedural, and interactional injustices. We find that social identity can inform job-seekers' perceptions of emotion AI, extending prior work's understandings of the factors contributing to job-seekers' perceptions of AI (broadly) in hiring. Moreover, our results suggest that emotion AI use may reconfigure demands for emotional labor in hiring and that deploying this technology in its current state may unjustly risk harmful outcomes for job-seekers - or, at the very least, perceptions thereof, which shape behaviors and attitudes. Accordingly, we recommend against the present adoption of emotion AI in hiring, identifying opportunities for the design of future asynchronous hiring interview platforms to be meaningfully transparent, contestable, and privacy-preserving. We emphasize that only a subset of perceived harms we surface may be alleviated by these efforts; some injustices may only be resolved by removing emotion AI-enabled features.

Mixed method evaluation of factors influencing the adoption of organic participatory guarantee system certification among Vietnamese vegetable farmers

AbstractIn markets where vegetables are commonly cultivated with heavy use of synthetic pesticides, it is particularly important for consumers to be able to identify genuine organic produce. Organic Participatory Guarantee Systems (PGS) certification offers smallholder farmers an affordable way to build trust among consumers and secure premium prices for their organic produce. In Vietnam, the demand for vegetables with no, or low, pesticide residues is growing. The attractiveness of PGS certification should increase accordingly, but the number of organic PGS certified farmers in Vietnam are stagnating or even decreasing. The aim of this study is to explain this paradox by investigating the factors that influence the adoption of organic PGS certification among Vietnamese vegetable farmers. We follow a mixed methods approach, combining a qualitative analysis of farmer interviews (n = 62) and a quantitative analysis of a farm survey data (n = 434) using a sample selection model that estimates adoption contingent on farmers’ awareness of PGS certification. Drawing on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology, we found that social relationships and positive attitudes towards farming and the environment drive the adoption of organic PGS. Barriers include insufficient knowledge of organic farming techniques, labour shortages, and ageing farmers. At the systemic level, support by (non-)governmental institutions facilitates adoption, but challenges such as lower yields and limited access to premium markets remain. To promote organic PGS among Vietnamese vegetable farmers, efforts should focus on disseminating organic farming techniques that boost yields, alleviate labour demands, and ensure secure markets for premium-priced organic vegetables.

Employment shocks and demand for pain medication: Understanding the channels that drive opioid use.

Higher employment ratios can affect opioid use through two main channels: by increasing physical pain from working or by reducing mental distress that may contribute to substance misuse. To separate these channels, I contrast the effect of labor demand shocks on the use of opioids with the effect on the use of over-the-counter painkillers-commonly used to treat pain but not mental distress. I find that during local economic expansions, opioid use declines while the demand for over-the-counter pain relief medication increases. Employment changes in high injury industries accentuate this pattern. One possible explanation is that, during local economic expansions, the use of pain medications to manage work injuries increases while the misuse of opioids decreases.

Yield, growth, and labor demands of growing maize, beans, and squash in monoculture versus the Three Sisters

Yield, growth, and labor demands of growing maize, beans, and squash in monoculture versus the Three Sisters

Digital transformation, environmental regulation and enterprises' ESG performance: Evidence from China

AbstractCompany's digital transformation and Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance are crucial for their development, but there is little literature that considers whether and how digital transformation improve ESG performance, the impact of environmental regulations is also easily overlooked, we attempt to fill this gap. Based on data related to Chinese listed enterprises from 2011 to 2020, we focus on the internal digital transformation of enterprises, analyze and empirically test the direct and mediating influence of digital transformation on enterprises' ESG performance, as well as the moderating effect of external environmental regulations. The results show that digital transformation improves ESG performance. Heterogeneity analysis found that digital transformation had different impacts on different dimensions of enterprise ESG performance. Further analysis indicates that enterprises' green innovation and labor demand play a mediating role in the relationship between enterprises' digital transformation and ESG performance. Regional formal environmental regulation and informal environmental regulation moderates the path of firms' digital transformation promoting green innovation level to enhance ESG performance. This paper provides micro evidence in China for exploring the improvement of enterprises' ESG performance and provides relevant ideas for understanding the effect of digital transformation.

The impact of digital-oriented mergers and acquisitions on enterprise labor demand

Digital-oriented mergers and acquisitions (DOMA) are increasingly being adopted as strategic options by enterprises during digital transformation. They represent a crucial pathway for enterprises to transition from traditional to digital capabilities and enhance their digital competitiveness. Utilizing data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2020, this study thoroughly examines the relationship between DOMA and corporate labor demand, as well as the underlying mechanisms. Our findings reveal that DOMA positively impacts labor demand. Additionally, DOMA increases the proportion of highly educated and skilled labor forces, thereby amplifying the impact of human capital. Mechanism research further shows that DOMA enhances market synergies, thereby boosting labor demand. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis suggests that the positive effect of DOMA on labor demand is particularly pronounced in enterprises with lower market shares, lower M&A premiums, higher market competition, non-high-tech enterprises and higher financial risk. This paper not only expands the research on DOMA and corporate labor demand, but also provides significant practical implications for generating new labor demand, catalyzing the intelligent transformation of enterprises.

Automation and disappearing routine occupations in Japan

We examine the implications of automation technology in Japan since 1980, comparing different local labor markets with different degrees of automation exposure. First, we do not find evidence that automation reduces employment rate within demographic groups and automation encourages workers to move from regular to non-regular employment. Second, we show that automation shifts employment from routine occupations in the manufacturing sector to service sectors, while increasing the share of establishments and sales in the manufacturing sector. Finally, we show that this shift in labor demand is attributed to younger generations and non-college-educated workers.

Monitoring cattle liveweight using a mobile, in-paddock weigh platform: Validation, attendance and utility

Cattle liveweight (LW) monitoring is essential for the effective management of animal productivity and welfare, particularly in decision-making on farms. Traditional static weigh (SW) systems require animals to be moved to fixed scales, posing challenges in extensive beef systems due to labour demands, costs, stress, and weight loss during muster. This study evaluated the relationship between LW measured by a SW system and a mobile in-field weighing system, Optiweigh (OW), in 65 weaners (Angus, Shorthorn, and Angus-Shorthorn cross) grazing forage oats on a commercial beef property in north-west NSW, Australia. Over 22 weeks, cattle were weighed fortnightly using SW scales in the cattle yards while OW continuously monitored LW in the paddock. Lin's concordance correlation coefficient showed a strong association between OW and SW liveweight (CCC = 0.97; P < 0.001), with no influence of breed or sex. However, OW slightly over-predicted LW for lighter cattle (≤ 382 kg) and under-predicted for heavier cattle (> 382 kg), prompting the development of a correction. Further research is needed to understand the reasons for these discrepancies, potentially related to diet. Additionally, cattle attendance at OW was affected by size, season, and individual variation (P < 0.001). Overall, the OW system simply and accurately monitored the temporal changes in cattle LW through voluntary animal attendance in remote systems.

Musculoskeletal disorders and quality of life of artisanal fishermen from riverside localities in the Brazilian Amazon.

Artisanal fishing is widely practiced in the Amazon region. However, the exhaustive labor demand impacts on the health of fishermen. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and the relationship with the quality of life (QoL) of artisanal fishermen. A cross-sectional study was carried out, evaluating male fishermen from two rural communities bordering Janauacá lake, Amazonas. Data were collected through interviews, using REDCap installed on smartphones. The Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire was utilized to identify the body regions with the greatest pain complaints, and QoL was assessed using the mental and physical components of the SF-12. After the descriptive analysis, linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the association between the occurrence of MSDs and the components of QoL. The analyses were performed using Stata SE software, version 17. In total, 115 fishermen were evaluated. MSDs were reported in all of the body regions assessed, with a higher prevalence in the lower (80.0%) and upper (43.5%) back, and knee (40.9%). Lower QoL scores were observed in emotional performance (20.7 ± 4.0), physical performance (25.1 ± 4.3), and mental health (29.0 ± 13.6). It was observed that individuals with any MSD presented worse QoL in the physical component (βadj=-5.0; 95%CI=-9.7; -0.3). The findings showed a high prevalence of MSDs in the study population, as well as its impact on the QoL of artisanal fishermen. This highlights the need to reorganize health services to prevent the occurrence of MSDs, as well as for their treatment and rehabilitation.

Are urban labour markets more dynamic? Vacancies and urban scaling

This paper shows that there is superlinear scaling of vacancies with employment size. That is, there are disproportionally more vacancies relative to employment in urban areas, not just for overall employment, but also for occupational and educational classes. Hence vacancies are more strongly concentrated than the jobs to which they refer. Moreover, we find that, compared to all employment, the concentration of labour demand increases with required skill levels. We show that the stronger growth of jobs in cities is unable to explain this finding and propose an alternative explanation based on vacancy chains in spatially related labour markets. The results suggest that on-the-job searchers have better possibilities in cities to improve their position. This helps explain the higher mobility of especially younger workers in cities and the superior quality of job-worker matches in large labour markets.

An Optimization Method for Multi-Robot Automatic Welding Control Based on Particle Swarm Genetic Algorithm

This paper introduces an optimization method for multi-robot automated control welding based on a Particle Swarm Genetic Algorithm (PSGA), aiming to address issues such as high costs, large footprint, and excessive production cycles in multi-robot welding production lines. The method first constructs a multi-axis robotic kinematic model to provide constraint conditions. Then, the PSO (particle swarm optimization) algorithm, which integrates penalty functions into the fitness evaluation, is used to determine the optimal welding path by simulating collective behavior within a group. The GA (genetic algorithm) encodes the position of the welding robot bases into chromosomes to find the optimal layout for coordinated control of multiple robots. The entire process is optimized according to welding standards and requirements. Additionally, a comprehensive production line performance estimation model was used to quantitatively analyze the new scheme. The results show that the optimized production line’s balance rate increased by 10%, the balance loss rate decreased by 10%, the smoothness index increased by 37.8%, the space costs reduced by 44.4%, the equipment demand reduced by 41.1%, the labor demand reduced by 50%, the total costs reduced by 10%, and the average product cycle time was reduced by 5.07 s. Finally, we tested the algorithm in various complex scenarios and compared its performance against mainstream algorithms within the context of this study. The results demonstrated that the optimized production line significantly improved efficiency while maintaining safety standards.

Strategic Directions for Strengthening Sustainability of Forestry Workforce

Today in many countries and regions, forestry sector deals with a considerable shortage of forestry workers and faces the serious challenge of ensuring a qualified and sustainable workforce. Current global processes and structural changes, such as emigration from rural areas, aging of the population, unfavorable age structure of existing employees, negative demographic trends (migrations, decline in birth rate, negative natural increase, etc.), lack of interest in the so-called 3D (dirty, dangerous and demeaning) jobs, low cost of labor and others, significantly contribute to such an adverse situation. Additionally, forestry work, especially wood harvesting, represents a very risky, professionally highly demanding and physically extremely intensive activity, which is regularly classified as one of the most dangerous occupations with a high proportion of serious injuries, fatalities and occupational diseases. For these reasons, the forestry profession is considered unattractive, and the job of a forestry worker undesirable. All of this makes finding the people interested in these jobs very difficult, and the task of ensuring the necessary workforce for all regular activities in sustainable forest management becomes very hard. In this paper, based on the surveys carried out in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&amp;amp;H), i.e. evaluation of forestry workforce sustainability factors, and on the study of available strategic documents, policies and case studies, strategic directions aimed at strengthening the sustainability of forestry workforce were elaborated. The sustainability factors were observed in three categories related to: a) stronger recruiting in forestry, b) more successful retention of forestry workers, and c) higher work commitment of forestry workers. Established rankings, together with other findings, were used to define four separate strategic directions: (1) Direct financial strategy, which emphasizes direct monetary payments to workers and is oriented towards labor productivity, (2) Indirect financial strategy, which focuses more on providing indirect material gains to workers and the quality of performed work, (3) Educational strategy, aimed at the education and training of workers, and (4) Technical-technological strategy, aimed at increasing the mechanization in forest operations thus reducing the demand for labor. The paper elaborates the basic starting points and main characteristics (priorities, measures and activities, stakeholders, responsible authorities, etc.) of each strategic direction considering the possibility and conditions of their implementation in national forestry sector. The objective of the paper is to raise the required awareness of the forestry workforce issues, its position and status, and also to provide foundations for enhancing the attractiveness of forestry work and improving the overall sustainability of the forestry workforce. The results of the study point out the critical issues and provide valuable insights that can help in formulating effective policies and strategies for the future.

Does staffing impact health and work conditions of staff in long-term care homes?: a scoping review

Abstract Background Long-Term Care (LTC) homes are highly regulated and task oriented, with demanding work and insufficient resources. Chronic underfunding of the sector, coupled with increased complexity of care, has deteriorated working conditions, resulting in precarious employment, intensified and stressful work, and decreased job satisfaction. These work conditions have contributed to severe staffing shortages of healthcare workers globally. To meet increased labour demands, OECD countries on average will need to increase the proportion of overall employment dedicated to LTC by 32% over the next decade. While reviews of literature have examined the association between staffing and care outcomes for residents in LTC, they have not examined how staffing structures affect the healthcare staff themselves. This scoping review asks: How does staffing impact the health of staff and working conditions in LTC? Methods A scoping review of empirical peer reviewed and grey literature was conducted to examine the association between LTC staffing practices and how they impact working conditions and the health and well-being of staff. PubMed, CINHAL, and Scopus databases were searched for relevant articles published within the past 10 years. Results Searches yielded 3994 unique articles, which were independently screened by pairs of reviewers. Preliminary results highlight that staffing levels are not optimized for healthy, sustainable work conditions. The level of staff, their skill mix, and ratios all impact the ability to provide care. In circumstances where there is inadequate staffing, care workers are more likely to experience stress, burnout, job dissatisfaction, and increased injury and illness. Conclusions Staffing practices shape working conditions which impact healthcare workers own health outcomes. To facilitate a strong LTC workforce, working conditions and occupational health need to be a priority in improvement initiatives. Key messages • With extreme staffing shortages challenging the healthcare sector, this review highlights the need for heightened attention to the impact of staffing practices on the healthcare workforce. • Improving working conditions and attuning to the needs of the workforce, ultimately improves quality of care.

Transitioning practices of vegetable small-scale actors in Vietnam: an interplay of food safety, labor demand, and soil environment

AbstractFood safety is a critical and persistent issue that challenges the sustainability of agri-food systems in Vietnam. The government has launched multiple food safety initiatives, but there is limited understanding of their contribution to changing the practices of small-scale producers and distributors. This study explores these changing practices by applying Social Practice Theory (SPT) to analyze the transitions in everyday routines of small-scale vegetable producers while being embedded in socio-institutional contexts of agri-food system transitions. We conducted semi-structured interviews and survey with small-scale food producers and distributors in Hanoi, Vietnam to examine the transitions in production and post-production practices over the last 20 years and the intersection between smallholding practices and cross-level dynamics. The study revealed, contrary to some common perceptions, that smallholder producers are transitioning towards food safety, with the use of more bio-pesticides and eco-friendly pest control methods. The smallholders also reproduce a variety of (sustainable) intensification practices, including crop rotation, organic fertilization, and soil cultivation, to sustain soil fertility and save labor. However, there are no clear patterns of change for post-production practices, although they have been diversifying under the impacts of urbanization. The findings highlight the interplay of food safety, labor, and soil environment in shaping the transitions of smallholder practices. We suggest that success in improving safety in production practices is feasible, but that this requires more thorough interventions in distribution and consumption practices to transform the food systems at large.