Korean Housing Research Articles

유한책임대출의 리스크 분석: 대출자의 기대손실을 중심으로 An Evaluation of Risks in Korean Nonrecourse Mortgages

Korean Abstract:무한책임을 요구하고 있는 우리나라 주택금융시장에서 최근 유한책임대출 또는 비소구대출(nonrecourse loan) 도입이 발표되었다. 동 발표로 인하여 금융시장에서는 주택가격이 하락하는 경우 차입자의 전략적 부도로 부실대출이 증가할 수 있다는 부정적 여론이 확대되었다. 본 논문에서는 유한책임대출의 장애요인으로 제시되고 있는 금융기관의 부담 즉 잠재적 위험을 논의한다. 특히 유한책임대출을 판매한 금융기관의 기대손실을 모의실험을 통하여 추정한다. 상대적으로 위험이 높은 수도권의 경우에 대출원금이 1,000억원인 경우 1% 발생확률에서 입을 수 있는 기대손실액의 최대 규모가 3,720만원으로 추정되었다. 시장에서의 우려에도 불구하고 현재 취급되고 있는 유한책임대출의 취급으로 인한 금융 기관의 잠재적 위험은 크지 않은 것으로 분석되었다. English Abstract:Recently non-recourse mortgages introduced in the Korean housing finance market, mortgage products of which require unlimited liability for borrowers, A debate, followed by the introduction, starts in the market that with non-recourse mortgages, borrowers may make massive strategic default decisions in case of a financial turbulence, which may increase burdens of financial institutions. The paper studies risks of a financial institution who originates non-recourse mortgage loans. In particular, the paper evaluates an expected loss for the institution. The simulation results show that, with a probability of 1 per cent, the expected loss for KRW 100 billions non-recourse mortgages is only KRW 3.7 millions in Seoul Metropolitan Areas whose expected loss was higher than those in other areas during the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. The results confirm that the expected loss is lower than expected in financial markets.

Systematic Review of Housing Research Using Digital Network Analysis

The aim of this study is to conduct a systematic review of housing research trend using a digital network analysis. Keywords from articles released over the past three decades at the Journal of the Korean Housing Association were applied. The cross-section analysis was applied to examine the trends by decades. Then a longitudinal design employing time series analysis was implemented, comparing the trends of relevant research in terms of periods. The degree centrality and weighted degree centrality of keywords were investigated. The results of this study are shown as follows. Studies on multi-family housing and apartment accounted almost half of the total studies, and studies on elderly people are on the rise. Initial research on cities focused on development, and now transitions to urban regeneration. Emotional and psychological variations such as housing satisfaction are shown instead of physical areas such as residential environment. Similarly, interests in housing development is changing to housing maintenance and continuity. The flow of the housing studies is that the interest of the study has changed from the quantitative and physical growth of housing to qualitative growth. Also, the flow of the study has gone through a transition, mirroring sociodemographic variations and national policies comprehensively.

주택공급변동성과 준공후미분양 결정 요인 분석*

One of the main characteristics of Korean housing supply is that it shows high volatility by repeating the rapid supply spike periodically by increasing the amount of pre-sale apartments. In general, this surge in housing supply was a major burden for the construction industry and the economy. This study demonstrates that if the pre-sale volume increases by 10% this year, the unsold new housing volume after completion will increase from 1.87% to 1.99% in three years. In other words, the increase in volatility in housing supply through a surge in pre-sale volume leads to an increase in unsold new housing volume after completion, and the data confirm the burden on the construction industry. The study also shows that coordination failures can lead to a rapid housing supply surges in the Korean housing market. Therefore, institutional supplementation is needed to prevent such a coordination failure from appearing in the market. This study suggests that the decrease of housing supply volatility and the reduction of unsold new housing after completion will require the increase in the share of construction companies’ equity capital and the gradual implementation of the post-sale housing supply system.

Bubbles and Spillovers in Korean Housing Markets

This study identifies bubbles in Korean housing markets based on the generalized supremum ADF (GSADF) method proposed by Phillip et al. (2015). This study also examines the spillover effect among Korean housing markets, using the method of Diebold, Yilmaz (2014). Our empirical findings reveal that bubbles are detected across all cities during 1998M12~2020M01. Especially, Seoul metropolitan area experienced a more chronic and sustained longer-lasting explosive bubbles in house prices compared to the other cities. The phase of boom period is still in progress at the moment in some Korean cities. In addition, Seoul has the strongest impact on the housing markets across all cities. Therefore, it is evident that Seoul plays a dominant role in transmitting the spillovers of house price movements in Korea. Our findings highlight the importance of the real-time monitoring aspects of the GSADF method in that policy makers can be better equip to construct an early warning system in dealing with bubbles and spillover effects in housing markets.

역사경관 유지를 위한 도시재생지역내 공동주택 건축특성 분석

Purpose: This study aims to understand England’s urban regeneration policy and a system of preserving a historic environment; and to analyse the architectural characteristics of housing situated with the urban regeneration area. The results of this study will help understand the policy of preserving the historic landscape of housing that is newly built in the existing city and will be able to present a model case for the Korean housing supply policy which tends to pursue a large scale development after a complete demolition of existing housing. Method: For this study, housing complex in South Kilburn, which is an urban regeneration project area situated in northwestern London, is analyzed. By focusing on this area, architectural characteristics are analyzed, and historical characteristics appearing on housing under the goal of preserving historic environment are investigated. Results: While conducting this study, the urban regeneration project for South Kilburn area was under operation, so the collection of necessary data was limited and the analysis of housing was limited as well. However, architectural effort to comply with the project for the continuation of local community and for the preservation of historical landscape could be checked through the development of microscopic units, the reflection of urban physical structure, the composition of flexible unit floor plan, an elevation design considering a surrounding landscape and an active integration of historical environment. That is, housing was being constructed in the context of existing city and this practice will offer a good lesson for Korea’s urban redevelopment and regeneration.

Behavioural biases and nonlinear adjustment: evidence from the housing market

ABSTRACT Using the threshold vector error correction model, this study finds substantial evidence for asymmetric mean-aversion in the Korean housing market, arising from behavioural biases. In order to effectively capture behavioural biases from the prospect theory, special attention is paid to the extreme tails of price deviations from long-run rationality. The major findings are highly consistent with the prospect theory predicting the risk-aversion effect after prior losses and the house money effect after prior gains. The overall speed of adjustment at losses is assessed about 7 times as high as at gains. The evidence that price changes are serially dependent, even after controlling the behavioural biases, suggests that house prices are also driven by investors’ extrapolative expectation.

통일 이후 북한지역 주택관리 방안 연구

Through the case studies of transition countries and the housing policy in South Korea, this paper studies the methods of housing management in North Korea after reunification. Given the peaceful reunification of two Koreas we desire, in the event of radical reunification, it is necessary to restrict the freedom of movement and residence temporarily in order to prevent economic and social confusion, and to conduct the population, housing and labor census to be used as basic data for housing management. In the event of gradual reunification, it is necessary to conduct a census and collect data on housing management (stage 1), to carry out the test operation of housing management in some parts of North Korea (stage 2), to construct and maintain new housing and public housing in earnest (stage 3), and to implement the full-scale social and economic integration of two Koreas (stage 4). To this end, policy goals and expected privatization ratios are presented for the respective stages. However, since it is difficult to cooperate directly with North Korea at the moment, it is suggested that the North Korean housing management system should be constructed considering the status of North and South Korea, and cooperation system should be devised for a comprehensive work plan in preparation for reunification.

경제정책 불확실성과 주택가격 변동률 간 연계성 분석

경제정책 불확실성과 주택가격 변동률 간 연계성 분석

Housing Market Agent-Based Simulation with Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income

This paper introduces an agent-based model of a housing market with macro-prudential policy experiments. Specifically, the simulation model is used to examine the effects of a policy setting on loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI), which are policy instruments several governments use to regulate the housing market. The simulation model illustrates the interactions among the households, the house suppliers, and the real estate brokers. We model each household in the population as either seller or buyer, and some of households may behave as speculators in the housing market. To better understand the impact of the policies, we used the real-world observations from the Korean housing market, which include various economic conditions, policy variables, and Korean census data. Our baseline model is quantitatively validated to the price index and the transaction volume of the past Korean housing market. After validation, we show the empirical effectiveness of setting LTV and DTI towards house prices, transaction volumes, and the amount of households' mortgages. Furthermore, we investigate the simulation results for the owner-occupier rate of households. These investigations provide the policy analyses in Korea's housing market, and other governments with LTV and DTI regulations.

한국과 일본 부동산시장에서의 수도권과 비수도권의 관계비교

한국과 일본 부동산시장에서의 수도권과 비수도권의 관계비교

한국 주택시장의 거품 검정과 주택시장 정책

한국 주택시장의 거품 검정과 주택시장 정책

Changes in the Comovement of House Price and Jeonse Price in the Korean Housing Market Considering the Macroeconomic Factors

본 연구는 우리나라의 소규모 개방경제인 특성을 고려하여 통화정책과 거시경제변수들이 주택가격과 전세가격 간에 동조화 현상에 동태적으로 어떤 영향을 미치는가를 분석한 다. 이를 위해 미국연방자금금리(FFR)를 블록외생성(Block Exogenous)를 가정한 SVAR (1)모형을 설정하여 주택가격과 전세가격의 동조화 현상을 동태적으로 살펴보았다. 먼저 CD금리, 산업생산지수, 소비자물가지수 등의 요인이 주택과 전세가격에 미치는 동시기 인과관계를 살펴보면, 주택가격은 산업생산지수와 전세가격이 증가하면 함께 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 전세가격은 CD금리, 산업생산지수, 소비자물가지수, 주택가격이 증가하면 함께 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 충격반응의 결과를 살펴보면, 주택가격은 국내외 금리의 1% 상승충격이 발생하면 감소하지만, 전세가격은 증가한다. 주택가격은 산업 생산지수의 1% 상승충격, 전세가격은 소비자물가지수의 1% 상승충격에 더 민감하게 증가 하는 것으로 확인된다. 하지만 이런 관계의 영향력은 시간의 흐름에 따라 최근 약화되는 추세를 보인다. 마지막으로 주택가격과 전세가격 간의 동조화 현상을 살펴보면, 동시기적으로 주택가격에 대한 전세가격의 동조화는 국내외 금리, 경기요인 등의 영향보다 주택가격 변화가 미치는 영향이 크며, 전세가격에 대한 주택가격의 동조화는 금리변화, 경기변화에 민감하게 반응한다.This study investigates the change of comovement between the house price and the rent price (hereafter Jeonse price). The methodology used in this study is the SVAR (1) model that assumes the US federal funds rate (FFR) to be block exogenous, and dynamically examines the comovement of the house price and the Jeonse price in the Korean housing market from 2004 to 2018. The main results are as follows. First, we found that the increase in house price is related to the increase in the industrial production index (IPI) and Jeonse price. We also found that the increase in Jeonse price is associated with the increase in the interest rate, IPI, consumer price index (CPI), and house price. Meanwhile, we find that the house price decreases in the 1% upward pressure of domestic and foreign interest rate shock. However, Jeonse price is only influenced by the domestic interest rate shock. It is noted that the increase of IPI and CPI commonly affects both the house price and the Jeonse price. Second, we carried out a rolling regression analysis in order to identify the dynamic casual relationship. We find that the impact of house price and Jeonse price from the IPI and CPI decrease as the interest rate goes up in the global financial market. Finally, we analyze the comovement between the house price and the Jeonse price. We find that the comovement of Jeonse price on the house price is significantly influenced by the change of Jeonse price rather than economic factors, such as interest rate. However, the result shows asymmetry in the house price. The comovement of the house price in relation to the Jeonse price is further influenced by the change of interest rate or economic conditions.

Cross-regional connectedness in the Korean housing market

This paper investigates the network topology of the Korean housing market using the connectedness methodology. The basic finding is that, among various combinations of regional housing markets, Seoul has been the most influential market in Korea. We also present evidence that other metropolitan cities affect only the neighboring regions. As for the results from the rolling-sample analysis, the net directional connectedness of Seoul appears to have declined over the sample period. Although Seoul still remains the center of the Korean housing market, neighboring regions have become increasingly more influential in affecting other regional markets. These findings suggest that the policy for balanced national development might have changed the transmission mechanisms in the Korean housing market.

Analyzing Dynamic Connectedness in Korean Housing Markets

ABSTRACT This study investigates regional housing market connectedness among the 16 first-tier administrative divisions in Korea and 25 districts in Seoul, the capital city. Time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model is used to capture time-varying nature of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) connectedness network. Rapid increases in connectedness during the sample period are mostly associated with housing booms rather than downturns. The connectedness cycles for the whole country and for Seoul seem to diverge after the global financial crisis. During the 2006 and 2018 connectedness surge episodes, when housing booms were driven by the Seoul metropolitan area, Seoul and the surrounding Gyeonggi province had a strong influence on the whole country network. However, their impact was much weaker in 2010–2011 when the housing boom arose outside Seoul. The influence of Gangnam-3 districts in Seoul’s connectedness network is low overall, but tends to lead the total connectedness index by a few months.

Various financial regulation effects on the lending market: evidence from Korea

This study examined whether changes in loan portfolio composition exist and how such portfolios are constructed when newly introduced macro-prudential instruments, namely risk-weight adjustments and countercyclical capital buffers (CCBs), are incorporated into South Korean housing loans. Burdened by fast-growing household debts, the South Korean Financial Authority (SKFA) implemented a macro-prudential policy. The findings are as follows: First, raising the risk weight for housing loans via the SKFA's policy does not show the evidence that banks make small and medium enterprise (SME) loans increase by cutting their housing loan. Second, incorporating CCBs into housing loans is effective to a limited extent. Third, CCB incorporation is considerably more effective under strong inflationary pressure than it is otherwise. Finally, the policy effects of the new macro-prudential instruments, particularly increasing the risk weight for housing loans, are limited in South Korea.

A Study on the Housing Problems and the Living Rights Struggles of the Korean in Japan the 1930s －Focused on “Min-jung Shibo”－

1920年代末頃から在日朝鮮人社会には就職問題、住宅問題、教育問 題、医療衛生問題、法律問題など様々な生活問題が現われていた。特に在 日朝鮮人社会において最も切実な問題は労働者人口の増加と居住形態の変 化、日本人家主の住宅賃貸の忌避、日本当局の消極的な対応などが総合 的な原因として作用した住宅問題である。本稿では1930年代の在日朝鮮人の 住宅問題をめぐる同時代の言説を分析することによって日本当局の住宅問題に 対する姿勢と対応、そして在日朝鮮人の積極的で自主的な生活権闘争の様 相を考察してみた。 1930年を前後して日本当局の調査によると在日朝鮮人の住宅問題の原因は 在日朝鮮人側の責任として扱われており、その以降も在日朝鮮人の住宅問題 をめぐる言説においてたえず繰り返されながら再生産と伝播が行われていた。さら に在日朝鮮人に対する民族的差別と偏見に基づいたステレオタイプをも作り続け ていた。 このような状況のなかで在日朝鮮人による韓国語新聞のꡔ民衆時報ꡕが創刊 された。ꡔ民衆時報ꡕは在日朝鮮人の生活権の確立、権益擁護、文化的向 上などを綱領として当時の在日朝鮮人の生活問題に大きな関心を持っており、 またその解決策を模索していた。とりわけ住宅問題については社説、コラム、報 道記事、寄稿文、文芸作品などを活用して問題の原因を追究し、なお生活権 闘争の参加を積極的に呼びかけていた。 しかしꡔ民衆時報ꡕの廃刊以降、在日朝鮮人の住宅問題をめぐる生活権闘 争は組織的な闘争の段階にまでは至らず、土地や住宅に対する強制立退の阻 止や法的訴訟を起こすような部分的で散発的な活動にとどまっていた。それでも ꡔ民衆時報ꡕが在日朝鮮人の住宅問題、さらに生活問題について民族運動の 一環として自主的で組織的な闘争を模索していた点は注目に値する。Since the late 1920’s, there have been various living problems in Korean society in Japan, such as employment problems, housing problems, education problems, medical hygiene problems, and legal problems. Especially in the Korean society in Japan, the most serious problem is the housing problem where the increase of the labor force and the change of living style, the refusal of the Japanese landlord’s housing rental, the negative response of the Japanese authorities, etc. This article analyzes Japanese contemporary Japanese attitudes to housing problems by analyzing contemporary discourses on Korean housing problems in the 1930s, I examined the aspect of the active and voluntary life rights struggle of Koreans in Japan. According to a survey of Japanese authorities around 1930, the cause of the housing problems of Koreans in Japan is treated as the responsibility of the Koreans in Japan, and from then on the discourse over the housing problems of Koreans in Japan has always been Reproduction and propagation was taking place repeatedly. Furthermore, Japanese authorities continued to create stereotypes based on ethnic discrimination and prejudice against Koreans in Japan. In this context, “Min-jung Shibo” was established with the aim of establishing the living rights of Korean residents in Japan, advocating for their rights, advancing their culture and improving their culture. Especially for housing problems, editors, columns, articles, contributions, and literary works were used to investigate the cause of the problems. “Min-jung Shibo” has actively called for participation in the struggle for life rights. However, since the demise of “Min-jung Shibo”, the struggle for the right to life over the housing problems of Koreans in Japan does not reach the stage of organized struggle. And it was limited to partial and sporadic activities, such as preventing forced evictions of land and housing and legal action. Nevertheless, it should be appreciated that “Min-jung Shibo” was interested in housing problems of Koreans in Japan. And it should be noted that “Min-jung Shibo” sought a voluntary and systematic struggle for living problems.

1980년대 주거운동의 역사적 궤적과 자가소유(권) 정상화의 역설

1980년대 주거운동의 역사적 궤적과 자가소유(권) 정상화의 역설

Korean public rental housing for residential stability of the younger population: analysis of policy impacts using system dynamics

ABSTRACTTo alleviate the burden of high residential costs for the younger population, the Korean government has recently implemented a public rental housing program for those who are vulnerable in their residential conditions and endure low quality of life. This program is not yet fully effective in achieving its policy aim because of lengthy construction periods and consistent vacancies (despite high demand). To address this issue, policy guidelines are sought. This study comprehensively models supply and demand of public rental housing and analyzes the effects of diverse policies on the rental housing system behaviour. To represent the rental housing system, system dynamics is applied which consists of continuous simulation based on causal relationships among variables encompassing their time-lagged effects (and in which system variables are highly interdependent). By testing the effects of policy variables of public rental housing delivery strategies upon the system, the developed model provides an in-depth understanding of policy impacts towards achieving a desired policy objective (in this case to accommodate more public rental housing demands by minimizing vacancy rates). The results provide guidelines for developing detailed policies for more efficient public rental housing project delivery, which can contribute to alleviating the residential problems of the younger population.

부호제약을 이용한 한국 주택시장의 변동요인 분석

부호제약을 이용한 한국 주택시장의 변동요인 분석

1970년대 미국 대한원조정책의 변화와 한국 주택문제 개입 : 주택금융시장의 형성과 재편을 중심으로

1970년대 미국 대한원조정책의 변화와 한국 주택문제 개입 : 주택금융시장의 형성과 재편을 중심으로