Knowledge-based Risk Research Articles

Developing a tailored RBS linking to BIM for risk management of bridge projects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to address the current theoretical gap in integrating knowledge and experience into Building Information Model (BIM) for risk management of bridge projects by developing a tailored Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) and formalising an active link between the resulting RBS and BIM. Design/methodology/approach A three-step approach is used in this study to develop a tailored RBS for bridge projects and a conceptual model for the linkage between the RBS and BIM. First, the integrated bridge information model is in concept separated into four levels of contents (LOCs) and six technical systems based on analysis of the Industry Foundation Classes specification, a critical review of previous studies and authors’ project experience. The second step develops a knowledge-based risk database through an extensive collection of risk data, a process of data mining, and further assessment and translation of data. A critical analysis is conducted in the last step to determine on which level the different risks should be allocated to bridge projects and to propose a conceptual model for linking the tailored RBS to the four LOCs and six technical systems of BIM. Findings The findings suggest that the traditional method and BIM can be merged as an integrated solution for risk management by establishing the linkage between RBS and BIM. This solution can take advantage of both the traditional method and BIM for managing risks. On the one hand, RBS enables risk information to be stored in a formal structure, used and communicated effectively. On the other hand, some features of BIM such as 3D visualisation and 4D construction scheduling can facilitate the risk identification, analysis, and communication at an early project stage. Research limitations/implications A limitation is that RBS is a qualitative technique and only plays a limited role in quantitative risk analysis. As a result, when implementing this proposed method, further techniques may be needed for assisting quantitative risk analysis, evaluation, and treatment. Another limitation is that the proposed method has not yet been implemented for validation in practice. Hence, recommendations for future research are to: improve the quantitative risk analysis and treatment capabilities of this proposed solution; develop computer tools to support the solution; integrate the linkage into a traditional workflow; and test this solution in some small and large projects for validation. Practical implications Through linking risk information to BIM, project participants could check and review the linked information for identifying potential risks and seeking possible mitigation measures, when project information is being transferred between different people or forwarded to the next phase. Originality/value This study contributes to the theoretical development for aligning traditional methods and BIM for risk management, by introducing a new conceptual model for linking RBS to BIM.

Multiparametric Quantitation of the Bacillus cereus Toxins Cereulide and Isocereulides A-G in Foods.

Consumption of food products contaminated with cereulide (1), a toxin produced by Bacillus cereus, might cause intoxications with symptoms reported to range from indigestion pain and emesis to death. Recently, a series of structural variants, coined isocereulides A-G (2-8), were identified for the first time to be produced along with cereulide (1). The observation that isocereulide A (2) shows an ∼ 8-fold increased cytotoxicity when compared to 1 urges the development of analytical tools enabling an accurate quantitation of these toxins. Therefore, a rapid, sensitive, and robust stable isotope dilution assay (SIDA) was developed for the combined quantitation of 1-8 by means of UPLC-MS/MS. On average, trueness and precision of the method were 112.5 ± 1.8% RSD, repeatability and reproducibility were 2 and 4% for cereulide and isocereulides A-G, and the LOD and LOQ of 0.1 and 0.5 ng/g, respectively, demonstrated a high sensitivity for the developed SIDA method. Application of this method to food samples revealed elevated levels of 1-8 in two suspicious noodle samples, for example, ranging from 0.59 (7) to 189.08 ng/g (1) in sample 1 and from 5.77 (7) to 6198.17 ng/g (1) in sample 2, whereas the analysis of 25 randomly selected food samples, which have not been the subject to any complaints, did not contain detectable amounts of any of these toxins. As a consequence, this SIDA method could add an important contribution to the knowledge-based risk assessment of B. cereus toxins in foods.

Chemodiversity of cereulide, the emetic toxin of Bacillus cereus.

Food-borne intoxications are increasingly caused by the dodecadepsipeptide cereulide, the emetic toxin produced by Bacillus cereus. As such intoxications pose a health risk to humans, a more detailed understanding on the chemodiversity of this toxin is mandatory for the reliable risk assessment of B. cereus toxins in foods. Mass spectrometric screening now shows a series of at least 18 cereulide variants, among which the previously unknown isocereulides A-G were determined for the first time by means of UPLC-TOF MS and ion-trap MS(n) sequencing, (13)C-labeling experiments, and post-hydrolytic dipeptide and enantioselective amino acid analysis. The data demonstrate a high microheterogeneity in cereulide and show evidence for a relaxed proof reading function of the non-ribosomal cereulide peptide synthetase complex giving rise to an enhanced cereulide chemodiversity. Most intriguingly, the isocereulides were found to differ widely in their cell toxicity correlating with their ionophoric properties (e.g., purified isocereulide A showed about 8-fold higher cytotoxicity than purified cereulide in the HEp-2 assay and induced an immediate breakdown of bilayer membranes). These findings provide a substantial contribution to the knowledge-based risk assessment of B. cereus toxins in foods, representing a still unsolved challenge in the field of food intoxications.

An Ontological and Semantic Approach for the Construction Risk Inferring and Application

Construction risk and safety management is a knowledge-intensive task. In addition to the construction risk knowledge itself, construction process knowledge is also important to the construction safety, since the different construction objects and processes selection often imply different potential risks may occur. However, most of construction risk management systems only focused on the construction risk knowledge itself. The process management and risk management usually are handled separately. In this paper, we explore to combine the construction process knowledge reuse methodology with the ontological modeling and semantic inferring approach to facilitate considering the risk issue during construction process reuse to directly improve the construction risk and safety management level. A meta ontology model is proposed to integrate risk knowledge domain with the risk monitor object domain. The meta model can be instantiated with the domain specific terms and relations and finally results into the specific domain model for specific application. The domain risk model for the deep foundation pit excavation using support systemcontiguous bored pile retaining wall system is shown as an illustrative example, in which the construction risk path knowledge is extracted via Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). In order to represent the construction risk knowledge in a computer-interpretable and semantically inferable way, the semantic web technique is used to represent the knowledge into OWL axioms and SWRL rules. Finally, based on the ontological model, the semantic inferring and application mechanism of construction risk knowledge are discussed and illustrated in the Protg platform. The proposed approach enables the construction risk knowledge to be presented in a computer-interpretable and semantically inferable way. The risk-oriented ontology model can be used as the basic structure of knowledge-based risk management system.

A knowledge-based risk mapping tool for cost estimation of international construction projects

Abstract Effective risk assessment and management is critical for success in international construction projects. This paper proposes a knowledge-based risk mapping tool for systematically assessing risk-related variables that may lead to cost overrun in international markets. The tool uses an ontology that relates risk and vulnerability to cost overrun [1] and a novel risk-vulnerability assessment methodology [2] to estimate potential risk paths that may emerge in international construction projects. The tool has been developed in collaboration with an industrial partner, a construction management company that gives risk management consultancy services to Turkish contractors working in international markets. The tool has been designed by using the previous projects of the partner firm as test cases and preferences of company professionals are taken into account while determining the functions of the tool. As the reliability and usability of the tool significantly depend on the subjective evaluations of users about level of vulnerability and magnitude of potential risk events, a lessons learned database has been incorporated into the tool so that decision-makers may refer to risk event histories of previous projects to make estimations about forthcoming projects. In order to evaluate the usability of the tool, a usability test has been conducted by eight construction experts. Usability test results demonstrated that the tool can be utilized for prediction of probable risk paths and their impact on cost. Results of a case study, a building project in Serbia, have also been reported in this paper to demonstrate the functions and the performance of the tool. Although the usability and reliability test results are satisfactory, the tool should be seen as an initial platform which should be improved by increasing its “intelligence” by high quality and enough number of risk event histories, and also customized according to user preferences as well as company policies.

A knowledge-based system for assessing and managing intellectual property managerial risks for small-and-medium sized technological enterprises

Managing intellectual property (IP) is a critical issue that almost no company can avoid. This is particularly true for small and medium sized technological enterprises (SMTEs). Due to their limited resources, SMTEs typically do not devote sufficient effort to managing intellectual property (IP) risks. This may lead to serious financial and other losses for such companies. In this paper, a knowledge-based intellectual property managerial risk system (KIPMRS) has been developed to assess and manage IP managerial risk for SMTEs. The KIPMRS is a new method for managing intellectual property risk, which incorporates both rule-based reasoning (RBR) and case-based reasoning (CBR). These two features enable the achievement of continuous improvement of the system. Two real life SMTEs participated in the trial implementation of the KIPMRS described here. The SMTEs each used the system to help determine their IP managerial risks and hence to improve their practice for better managing their IP.

Modeling the risk of ship grounding—a literature review from a risk management perspective

Ship grounding accidents, being one of the major types of maritime accidents, are significant failures putting in danger maritime transportation systems. Moreover, the risks associated with those failures can be catastrophic for the system, society, and the environment. This highlights the importance of appropriate methodology for assessing and managing the associated risk. Many scholars have introduced a wide range of methods for modeling the risk, utilizing the concept of the probability and the consequence of an accident; however, those models very often employ critical assumptions on the behavior of maritime transportation systems, which may seem not to be supported by evidences. This in turn limits models' ability to mitigate the risks, as those simply remain unknown. Therefore, this article has three aims. First, it proposes a methodological framework suitable for knowledge-based risk modeling, fulfilling the recommendations given by the Formal Safety Assessment issued by the International Maritime Organization. Secondly, it thoroughly reviews and discusses all the existing risk models available in the literature developed for ship grounding risk analysis in light of the proposed risk perspective. Third, the models that are more appropriate for risk management and decision making are highlighted and the recommendations are given to future model developments.

The Support of Knowledge Process to Enhance Risk Analysis in Jordanian Telecommunication Companies

The purpose of this paper is to study how Jordanian companies use the knowledge process to support risk analysis and how they deal with and foster it. The present empirical study is based on a sample of the data collected from 180 respondents, drawn randomly from Jordanian Telecommunication Companies. It provides a contribution to the literature about knowledge-based risk analysis in one of the developing countries as a framework to keep organisations competitive within the global business environment. This paper makes the following contributions. First, it demonstrates that according to project stakeholders, individual risk management activities, like for instance risk identification, are able to contribute to project success. Second, this paper provides insight in how knowledge process to support risk analysis and how they deal with and foster risk management activities to contribute in IT project success. And third, based on this new perspective, this paper provides new directions for further research into the mechanisms on how knowledge process support risk analysis in risk management to contribute in IT project success. The results of the survey show that the four selected factors (knowledge-based risk rationalise, knowledge-based risk comprehension, knowledge-based risk examination, and knowledge-based risk validation) have a significant impact on risk analysis. Due to the literature limitation about the KM model in developing countries, the current study will contribute to this field by addressing the knowledge-based risk. The findings will certainly help both researchers and practitioners in future knowledge management (KM) process, and risk analysis research. In order to get a better understanding of the knowledge processes on risk analysis, future research endeavours should focus on several other countries for comparative purposes.

Knowledge-Based Risk Management framework for Information Technology project

The purpose of this paper is to explore the field of Risk Management (RM) in relation with Knowledge Management (KM). It attempts to present a conceptual framework, called Knowledge-Based Risk Management (KBRM) that employs KM processes to improve its effectiveness and increase the probability of success in innovative Information Technology (IT) projects. It addresses initiatives towards employing KM processes in RM processes by reviewing, interpreting the related and relevant literature and sheds light on integration with RM in the IT project. The paper exposes some pertinent elements needed for building the KBRM framework for IT projects and also suggests some instrument about the integration of KM and RM process to improve the RRP (Risk Response Planning) process efficiency. This paper will contribute to the literature and practice by providing a clear method for employing KBRM as a framework to keep organizations competitive within the business environment.

Knowledge-based risk evaluation during the offer calculation of customised products

The individualisation of products is a hybrid business strategy, which increases the competitiveness of production enterprises. But the inherent risks of order processing for customised products jeopardises the successful and economical implementation of this strategy: A potential risk exists within the calculation of the total costs due to incomplete information about the product and the production processes during the offer specification process as well as due to the temporal fluctuations of the prices and costs after the offer specification. This paper analyses the risks and existing methods regarding risks in offer calculation processes. The approach developed here proposes a knowledge-based system for the evaluation and configuration of risks during the order processing of individualised products. Based on a classification of the immanent risks, an evaluation method is introduced which is implemented in a knowledge-based system. The methods developed for calculation and interpretation allow for a good analysis of the risk situation of individualised products.

VALIDATION OF A KNOWLEDGE-BASED RISK MODEL FOR BIOLOGICAL FOAMING IN ANAEROBIC DIGESTION SIMULATION

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a complex biological system which can be affected by several operational problems. Among them, biological foaming is one of the most difficult to deal with. It has many effects, such as causing gas pipe clogging and probe failures, and it can affect mixing devices, etc. Since the mechanisms involved in biological foaming development are not fully understood, it is not included in standard anaerobic digestion models. For this reason, a knowledge-based risk model to determine the suitable conditions for the development of biological foaming during AD simulation was developed. The resulting knowledgebased system, based on organic loading rate (OLR) and its daily variation, was experimentally validated using real data from a fully instrumented pilot plant (1 m upflow fixed bed digester). Results show a good correlation between the knowledge-based risk model and the estimated biological foaming risk from real data.

Impact of clinical reminder redesign on physicians' priority decisions.

Computerized clinical reminder (CCR) systems can improve preventive service delivery by providing patient-specific reminders at the point of care. However, adherence varies between individual CCRs and is correlated to resolution time amongst other factors. This study aimed to evaluate how a proposed CCR redesign providing information explaining why the CCRs occurred would impact providers' prioritization of individual CCRs. Two CCR designs were prototyped to represent the original and the new design, respectively. The new CCR design incorporated a knowledge-based risk factor repository, a prioritization mechanism, and a role-based filter. Sixteen physicians participated in a controlled experiment to compare the use of the original and the new CCR systems. The subjects individually simulated a scenario-based patient encounter, followed by a semi-structured interview and survey. We collected and analyzed the order in which the CCRs were prioritized, the perceived usefulness of each design feature, and semi-structured interview data. We elicited the prioritization heuristics used by the physicians, and found a CCR system needed to be relevant, easy to resolve, and integrated with workflow. The redesign impacted 80% of physicians and 44% of prioritization decisions. Decisions were no longer correlated to resolution time given the new design. The proposed design features were rated useful or very useful. This study demonstrated that the redesign of a CCR system using a knowledge-based risk factor repository, a prioritization mechanism, and a role-based filter can impact clinicians' decision making. These features are expected to ultimately improve the quality of care and patient safety.

Managing Knowledge in a Business Intelligence Consulting Project

IT projects require diverse knowledge resources, which need to be accessed, created, and shared. The lack of these knowledge resources or their inappropriate management is one of the main sources of project delays and even failure. The present case describes the situation of a challenging, but to some extent typical, business intelligence (BI) implementation project at Hong Kong International Airport. The case highlights the diverse knowledge-based challenges encountered during the implementation of the BI system and its implications for the further development of the project. The case is designed to introduce students to Reich’s (2007) knowledge-based risk framework, which allows for a systematic analysis of knowledge-related issues in IT project environments. As knowledge has become a critical source of both shortand long-term competitive advantage for international enterprises (Fang et al. 2007), the analysis points to the diverse knowledge-based issues as the root causes of several problems the project is facing and indicates the complexity surrounding these knowledge issues. Extensive background information on the strategic position of the Hong Kong Airport and the potential role of BI technology provide the basis for further discussion and additional analyses.

Recorded and potential alien invertebrate pests in Finnish agriculture and horticulture

It is assumed that climate change will promote pest invasions and their establishment in new regions. We have updated the list of current alien invertebrate pest species in Finland and produced a list of potential new alien pests using a self-organizing map (SOM) that ranks species in terms of their risk of entry into Finland. The 76 pest species recorded included 66 insects, 5 nematodes, 2 mites and 3 slugs. Nearly half of the alien species appeared to have invaded Finland during the last 48 years. The SOM analysis is considered a viable tool for identification of potentially high-risk invasive pests from among the multitude of potential alien invaders, and represents a useful complement to local expert knowledge-based risk assessment of potentially invasive pests. Along with the comparisons with databases of current and potential pest species, SOM analysis suggests that in the changing climate, the habitats at greatest risk from exotic pests in Finland are horticultural: orchards, ornamental hardy-nursery stocks, landscape and ornamental tree nurseries, and greenhouses.

Assessing chronic liver toxicity based on relative gene expression data

The risk associated with exposure to hepatotoxic drugs is difficult to quantify. Animal experiments to assess their chronic toxicological impact are time consuming. New quantitative approaches to correlate gene expression changes caused by drug exposure to chronic toxicity are required. This article proposes a mathematical model entitled Toxicologic Prediction Network (TPN) to assess chronic hepatotoxicity based on subchronic hepatic gene expression data in rats. A directed graph accounts for the interactions between the drugs, differentially expressed genes and chronic hepatotoxicity. A knowledge-based mathematical model estimates phenotypical exposure risk such as toxic hepatopathy, diffuse fatty change and hepatocellular adenoma for rats. The network's edges encoding the interaction strength are determined by solving an inversion problem that minimizes the difference between the observed and the predicted relative gene expressions as well as the chronic toxicity data. A realistic case study demonstrates how chronic health risk of three halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons can be inferred from subchronic gene expression data. The advantages of the TPN are further demonstrated through two novel applications: Estimation of toxicological impact of new drugs and drug mixtures as well as rigorous determination of the optimal drug formulation to achieve maximum potency with minimum side-effects. Prediction of animal toxicity may be relevant for assessing risk for humans in the future.

Knowledge-based risk identification in infrastructure projects

Effective risk management is a central function in the successful planning and execution of large infrastructure projects. This paper explores how current knowledge-based approaches for risk management can be improved upon so that they are more responsive to the attributes of a project and the needs of system users. A review of existing knowledge-based systems for risk management provides a backdrop for a discussion on desirable characteristics of such an approach. The proposed methodology adopts a model-based technique in that explicit abstractions of project components and processes, and the physical, regulatory, political, social, financial, economic, contractual, and organizational environments in which they are located, are created to assist in the reasoning about possible risks. This contrasts with several current systems that use only implicit representations. The reasoning schema and models of the physical project and environment that are used for the reasoning process are described in the paper.Key words: risk identification, project modeling, knowledge management, infrastructure projects.

A knowledge-based risk assessment framework for evaluating web-enabled application outsourcing projects

The convergence between telecommunications and computing industries enabling the provision of web-enabled software applications facilitates new opportunities for small and medium businesses (SMBs) to embrace application outsourcing projects. Application service providers (ASPs) offering web-enabled software applications on a subscription (pay-as-you-go) basis revisits the traditional service bureau model of outsourcing, and promises additional business benefits of economies of scale, increased scope of business applications, and enterprise application integration (EAI). Yet SMBs rarely adopt formal, project management methods and tools for evaluating the benefits and risks of outsourcing projects. In this paper, the literature on knowledge-based firms provides a useful backdrop for understanding the delineation between explicit knowledge (that can be captured, codified, stored and distributed) and tacit knowledge (that flows through social networks that connect people). Against this background, a knowledge-based risk assessment framework is developed to provide SMBs with a template for evaluating the benefits and risks of application outsourcing. The framework incorporates key performance indicators (KPIs) in five categories: delivery and enablement; integration; management and operations; business transformation; and client/vendor relationships, and attempts to make knowledge explicit, whilst also recognising the tacit aspects of evaluating consortium, project-based outsourcing.

An innovative approach of risk planning for space programs

According to the current rule-based risk management approach at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the effort is directed to contain all identified risks of a program. The identification of hazards and mitigation effort proceeds along with the development of the system hardware, till all the tradable resources for a program is exhausted. In this process, no conscious effort is made to evaluate risks and associated cost, and the final design is likely to have undesirable residual risks. This approach also results in allocating a significant amount of resources to gain only marginal mitigation of hazard and leave some undesirable hazards in the system due to the budget limitation. The approach in the proposed knowledge-based risk planning system makes a conscious attempt to trade risk with other resources, e.g., schedule, cost, reliability, performance, and others in a judicious and cost-effective way. A knowledge of the feasible option sets requiring high incremental cost for a marginal gain in hazard reduction helps the management to make decision for residual risk that falls within an acceptable range for an option set. Relevance to industry The study provides a cost-effective approach for planning risk of space programs. The approach can be adopted for risk planning of large industrial projects.

Space-system reliability: a historical perspective

The NASA Strategic Plan is the backbone of its new strategic management system, an important aspect of which is risk management. Coincident with a decreasing NASA budget is the new working environment that demands a better, faster, cheaper way to conduct business. In such an environment where risk is considered a knowledge-based resource, mission assurance is important in understanding risk. Through the years, much of mission assurance has been aimed at increasing independent systems engineering and further refining basic design approaches. Now the time has come to direct NASA's attention to managing the risks that come from system interactions during a mission. To understand such risks, all engineering techniques are important. Mission-assurance engineers are entering the era of interaction in which engineering and system engineering must work closely to achieve better performance on time and within cost. A structured risk-management approach is critical to a successful project-this is nothing new. A risk policy must be integral to the program as part of a concurrent engineering process, and risk and risk drivers must be monitored throughout. Risk can also be managed as a resource: the new way of managing better, faster, cheaper programs encompasses upfront, knowledge-based risk assessment. The safety and mission assurance community can provide valuable support as risk management consultants.

Knowledge-based risk assessment and cost estimation

Knowledge-based risk assessment and cost estimation