Abstract
It is assumed that climate change will promote pest invasions and their establishment in new regions. We have updated the list of current alien invertebrate pest species in Finland and produced a list of potential new alien pests using a self-organizing map (SOM) that ranks species in terms of their risk of entry into Finland. The 76 pest species recorded included 66 insects, 5 nematodes, 2 mites and 3 slugs. Nearly half of the alien species appeared to have invaded Finland during the last 48 years. The SOM analysis is considered a viable tool for identification of potentially high-risk invasive pests from among the multitude of potential alien invaders, and represents a useful complement to local expert knowledge-based risk assessment of potentially invasive pests. Along with the comparisons with databases of current and potential pest species, SOM analysis suggests that in the changing climate, the habitats at greatest risk from exotic pests in Finland are horticultural: orchards, ornamental hardy-nursery stocks, landscape and ornamental tree nurseries, and greenhouses.
Highlights
It is expected that climate warming will be pronounced at high latitudes, which will expand suitable cropping areas further northwards in Europe (IPCC 2007a, b)
We focused on species that EPPO considers important threats either for the whole EPPO region
Mostly hemipterans, dominate the current alien invertebrate pest assemblage in Finnish agriculture and horticulture (Appendix 1 in Supplementary material available in journal’s website). This is in concordance with similar inventories from elsewhere (e.g. Kenis et al 2007)
Summary
It is expected that climate warming will be pronounced at high latitudes, which will expand suitable cropping areas further northwards in Europe (IPCC 2007a, b). CO2, prolonged thermal growing seasons and milder winters will enhance agriculture and horticulture, resulting in increasing yields and creating opportunities for introduction of new crop species and varieties in Nordic countries Seasonal changes in day length, from long days in summer to darkness in winter around the Arctic Circle, in conjunction with milder winter conditions, will increase the risk of frost damage and anoxia caused by waterlogging. These factors, along with accumulation of ice due to fluctuating freeze-thaw cycles, may constrain establishment of both new crop plants and invasive pests. Novel weed species may restrict indigenous plant species
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