Kinds Of Shocks Research Articles

Vulnerability of Tax Revenue in Resource-Rich Countries

Conventional wisdom has it that natural resource dependence is associated with increased vulnerability to external shocks emanating from sudden supply and demand changes in the global economy. This paper explores to what extent government revenue in low- and middle-income countries is affected by different kinds of shocks and whether these effects are different for resource-rich as compared to non-resource-rich countries. Based on data from 176 countries between 1980-2010, we measure the elasticity of tax revenue in resource-rich countries with respect to two kinds of shocks: exchange rate pressure and terms of trade shocks. We find that government revenue in resource-rich countries is more volatile, but not necessarily more vulnerable, in particular with regard to terms of trade shocks. Poorer resource-rich countries are more vulnerable than their higher-income counterparts. Vulnerability in resource-rich countries has significantly decreased in the 2000s as compared to previous decades. Introducing institutional variables such as political regime type or bureaucratic quality we find that the general institutional characteristics of a country may not always reflect the quality of its management of natural resources. Still, results provide some support to those arguments that stress the relevance of good governance in the context of the so-called “resource curse”.

A practical approach to goal-directed echocardiography in the critical care setting.

Urgent cardiac ultrasound examination in the critical care setting is clinically useful. Application of goal-directed echocardiography in this setting is quite distinct from typical exploratory diagnostic comprehensive echocardiography, because the urgent critical care setting mandates a goal-directed approach. Goal-directed echocardiography most frequently aims to rapidly identify and differentiate the cause(s) of hemodynamic instability and/or the cause(s) of acute respiratory failure. Accordingly, this paper highlights 1) indications, 2) an easily memorized differential diagnostic framework for goal-directed echocardiography, 3) clinical questions that must be asked and answered, 4) practical issues to allow optimal image capture, 5) primary echocardiographic views, 6) key issues addressed in each view, and 7) interpretation of findings within the differential diagnostic framework. The most frequent indications for goal-directed echocardiography include 1) the spectrum of hemodynamic instability, shock, and pulseless electrical activity arrest and 2) acute respiratory failure. The differential diagnostic categories for hemodynamic instability can be remembered using the mnemonic ‘SHOCK’ (for Septic, Hypovolemic, Obstructive, Cardiogenic, and (K) combinations/other kinds of shock). RESP-F (for exacerbation of chronic Respiratory disease, pulmonary Embolism, ST changes associated with cardiac or pericardial disease, Pneumonia, and heart Failure) can be used for acute respiratory failure. The goals of goal-directed echocardiography in the unstable patient are: assessing global ventricular systolic function, identifying marked right ventricular and left ventricular enlargement, assessing intravascular volume, and the presence of a pericardial effusion. In an urgent or emergent setting, it is recommended to go directly to the best view, which is frequently the subcostal or apical view. The five views are the subcostal four-chamber view, subcostal inferior vena cava view, parasternal long axis view, parasternal short axis view, and the apical four chamber view. Always interpret goal-directed echocardiographic findings in the context of clinically available hemodynamic information. When goal-directed echocardiography is insufficient or when additional abnormalities are appreciated, order a comprehensive echocardiogram. Goal-directed echocardiography and comprehensive echocardiography are not to be used in conflict with each other.

Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Abstract. Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S1. The gap in the economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

Recent recommendations on the use of hydroxyethyl starch solutions. Literature review

Infusion therapy is an important component of treatment of almost all kinds of shock and intensive care. In the article the basic problems of choice of solutions for infusion therapy are discussed. The emphasis is on the use of hydroxyethyl starch (HES ) solutions. The authors provide a brief historical data regarding solutions for infusion therapy. The effect of HES solutions molecular weight on the adverse effects of infusion therapy comparing to crystalloid solutions are considered, various data on the safety and efficacy of HES compared to albumin and other semi-synthetic colloids are reviewed. Also the latest recommendations on the use of these solutions as a part of infusion therapy are provided.

Study on the Vulnerability and Resilience Factors of Tax Revenues in Developing Countries. Study funded by the European Commission

Beyond the general impact of shocks on economic growth there are specific effects of shocks on revenue systems that shape the capacity of governments to react to adverse external events and sustain development expenditure. These effects vary not only with the kinds of shock affecting the economies, but also with the characteristics of these economies (welfare levels, dependence on natural resources, etc.), the political and administrative capacity of states to react to changing situations, and the structure of the tax systems. Shocks do not only affect the level of tax collection, but also the stability and predictability of revenue. The latter is critical with regard to the adaptation to exogenous changes as well as the financial ability of states to recover from adverse external events. This study presents an approach to empirically assess the impact of several kinds of shocks on revenue systems in a broad set of countries, and in developing countries in particular. The study thus contributes to an evidence-based policy of the European Commission aimed at strengthening the capacity of developing countries to absorb external shocks and thereby stabilising development expenditures. In particular, it provides evidence on the vulnerability to external shocks of tax revenues in developing countries and presents policy options to strengthen the resilience of tax systems.

Education and the Vulnerability to Food Inadequacy in Timor-Leste

This paper adopts a simple empirical approach to estimate vulnerability to food inadequacy using cross-section data from the 2001 Timor-Leste Living Standard Measurement Survey. This measurement is based on the assumption that households are exposed to the same kind of shock. It is found that the distribution of vulnerability to food inadequacy to the education of household head is more significant than that to observed food poverty. The results support the argument that senior primary and tertiary education can help reduce the food risk that households face, in particular the risk that a household is undernourished. Thus, in Timor-Leste public spending on these forms of education can provide a form of support that favours the poor.

Prediction of Length of ICU Stay Using Data-mining Techniques: an Example of Old Critically Ill Postoperative Gastric Cancer Patients

With the background of aging population in China and advances in clinical medicine, the amount of operations on old patients increases correspondingly, which imposes increasing challenges to critical care medicine and geriatrics. The study was designed to describe information on the length of ICU stay from a single institution experience of old critically ill gastric cancer patients after surgery and the framework of incorporating data-mining techniques into the prediction. A retrospective design was adopted to collect the consecutive data about patients aged 60 or over with a gastric cancer diagnosis after surgery in an adult intensive care unit in a medical university hospital in Shenyang, China, from January 2010 to March 2011. Characteristics of patients and the length their ICU stay were gathered for analysis by univariate and multivariate Cox regression to examine the relationship with potential candidate factors. A regression tree was constructed to predict the length of ICU stay and explore the important indicators. Multivariate Cox analysis found that shock and nutrition support need were statistically significant risk factors for prolonged length of ICU stay. Altogether, seven variables entered the regression model, including age, APACHE II score, SOFA score, shock, respiratory system dysfunction, circulation system dysfunction, diabetes and nutrition support need. The regression tree indicated comorbidity of two or more kinds of shock as the most important factor for prolonged length of ICU stay in the studied sample. Comorbidity of two or more kinds of shock is the most important factor of length of ICU stay in the studied sample. Since there are differences of ICU patient characteristics between wards and hospitals, consideration of the data-mining technique should be given by the intensivists as a length of ICU stay prediction tool.

Les marchés du travail français et américain face aux chocs conjoncturels des années 1986 à 2007 : une modélisation DSGE

Until the current economic crisis, the recovery capacity of the American and French labour markets had often been compared. The United States had been considered more resilient, namely more affected by cyclical shocks in the short term but more quickly coming back to their initial path in the medium term. As this conclusion may be modified in the context of the current crisis, it is also relevant to study if it is actually valid on the previous period. Between 1986 and 2007, the output gap of the United States presented more pronounced fluctuations and came back to the equilibrium more rapidly. However, it does not mean that the United States were more resilient since it can also result from the fact that the American economy was affected by other kinds of shocks than the French economy. To distinguish which explanation is the most relevant, it is difficult to use an astructural approach. This study is therefore based on a structural approach directly inspired from Christoffel and Linzert (2005). We use two calibrated DSGE models, one for the French economy, the other for the United States, which include a labour market matching model a la Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides. The comparison of the impulse response functions between the two models show that differences in resilience cannot be assessed globally: they depend on the shock which affects the economy. The differences are the most significant for shocks related to the labour market but they are less sensible for standard shocks like productivity shocks or monetary shocks. We use the same DSGE models to determine the nature of historical shocks between 1986 and 2007 and to assess the contributions of these shocks to output fluctuations. According to the models, the dynamics of the two economies on the period is thus characterized by different combinations of shocks, rather than different absorption capacity of these shocks.

Characteristics of Type-II Radio Bursts Associated with Flares and CMEs

We present a statistical study of the characteristics of type-II radio bursts observed in the metric (m) and deca-hectometer (DH) wavelength range during 1997–2008. The collected events are divided into two groups: Group I contains the events of m-type-II bursts with starting frequency ≥ 100 MHz, and group II contains the events with starting frequency of m-type-II radio bursts < 100 MHz. We have analyzed both samples considering three different aspects: i) statistical properties of type-II bursts, ii) statistical properties of flares and CMEs associated with type-II bursts, and iii) time delays between type-II bursts, flares, and CMEs. We find significant differences in the properties of m-type-II bursts in duration, bandwidth, drift rate, shock speed and delay between m- and DH-type-II bursts. From the timing analysis we found that the majority of m-type-II bursts in both groups occur during the flare impulsive phase. On the other hand, the DH-type-II bursts in both groups occur during the decaying phase of the associated flares. Almost all m-DH-type-II bursts are found to be associated with CMEs. Our results indicate that there are two kinds of shock in which group I (high frequency) m-type-II bursts seem to be ignited by flares whereas group II (low frequency) m-type-II bursts are CME-driven.

Risk of acute kidney injury after exposure to gadolinium-based contrast in patients with renal impairment

Background and Aims: Gadolinium-based contrast media (Gd-CM) are reported to induce acute kidney injury (AKI) in a high-risk population group at the usual dose for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) examinations. We assessed gadolinium-induced nephropathy in patients with renal impairment who underwent MRI or MRA examinations, and evaluate the risk factors. Methods: In this retrospective study, 238 patients with baseline renal impairment, who received MRI or MRA examinations with Gd-CM, were recruited. Results: After all other AKI causes—liver decompensation, severe heart failure, all kinds of shock, and severe sepsis—and patients on dialysis were excluded, 158 patients were enrolled. AKI was defined as a decrease in GFR &gt; 10% of baseline data within 3 days after Gd-CM administration. Regression analysis was used to find independent risk factors for gadolinium-induced ARF (Gd-AKI) . Twenty-six of the 158 patients (16.5%) developed Gd-ARF. There were no significant differences in gender, age, or baseline eGFR between those who did and who did not develop AKI. Co-morbid coronary artery disease, liver cirrhosis, diabetic mellitus, and hypertension were not significantly associated with the development of Gd-ARF. However, sepsis was an independent risk factor for Gd-AKI after multivariate regression analysis (adjusted odds ratio: 4.417; 95% confidence interval: 1.671, 11.676, P =.03). Conclusions: Sepsis was an independent risk factor for Gd-CM nephropathy at the usual dose for MRI and MRA examinations. It is important to identify high-risk patients and closely monitor renal function after Gd-CM administration.

Macroeconomic Consequences of Increased Productivity in Less Developed Economies

This paper examines the impact of increased productivity on prices, output, real wage rate and balance of payments. Two alternative forms of productivity are considered: (1) cost saving for a given output level and (2) production increase without a direct decrease in employment. By making use of a simple model of a small open economy that includes some key features of less developed economies, it is shown that increased productivity with monetary and fiscal restraint helps the economy to improve its key macroeconomic variables, such as output, employment, balance of payments, and real wages both in the short and the medium run. Simulation exercises while treating efficiency as an endogenous variable by invoking learning by doing mechanism are also presented. We simulated the model for three kinds of shocks: (1) efficiency shock, (2) tax rate shock, and (3) price of foreign inputs shock. Our results show that all the three shocks would cause output and real wage rate to increase both in the short and the medium run. Similarly in most cases we found that inflation would come down and balance of payments either improve or deteriorate slightly in the short and the medium run. In general, the findings of our paper does not support the fear that increased productivity would lower the real wages of labour and have negative impact on the economy in the long run. The paper concluded while hinting at different measures which might improve productivity.

Risk of Acute Kidney Injury after Exposure to Gadolinium-Based Contrast in Patients with Renal Impairment

Objectives: Gadolinium-based contrast media (Gd-CM) are reported to induce acute kidney injury (AKI) in a high-risk population group at the usual dose for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) examinations. We assessed gadolinium-induced nephropathy in patients with renal impairment who underwent MRI or MRA examinations, and evaluated the risk factors. Materials and methods: In this retrospective study, 238 patients with baseline renal impairment, who received MRI or MRA examinations with Gd-CM, were recruited. After all other AKI causes—liver decompensation, severe heart failure, all kinds of shock, and severe sepsis—and patients on dialysis were excluded, 158 patients were enrolled. AKI was defined as a decrease in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) >10% of baseline data within 3 days after administration of Gd-CM. Regression analysis was used to find independent risk factors for gadolinium-induced AKI (Gd-AKI). Results: Twenty-six of the 158 patients (16.5%) developed Gd-AKI. There were no significant differences in gender, age, or baseline GFR between those who did and who did not develop AKI. Comorbid coronary artery disease, liver cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension were not significantly associated with the development of Gd-AKI. However, sepsis was an independent risk factor for Gd-AKI after multivariate regression analysis (adjusted odds ratio: 4.417; 95% confidence interval: 1.671–11.676, p = 0.03). Conclusions: It is potential AKI after administration of Gd-CM under sepsis condition at the dose for MRI and MRA examinations in patients with renal impairment. It is important to identify high-risk patients and closely monitor renal function after administration of Gd-CM.

Multishocks in driven diffusive processes: Insights from fixed-point analysis of the boundary layers

Boundary-induced phase transitions in a driven diffusive process can be studied through a phase-plane analysis of the boundary-layer equations. In this paper, we generalize this approach further to show how various shapes including multishocks and downward shocks in the bulk particle density profile can be understood by studying the dependence of the fixed points of the boundary-layer equation on an appropriate parameter. This is done for a particular driven interacting particle system as a prototypical example. The present analysis shows the special role of a specific bifurcation of the fixed points in giving rise to different kinds of shocks.

The analysis of supply and demand shocks adjustment dynamics of the EU-15 countries

In this paper, we use structural vector autoregression model with two variables to decompose economic disturbances to supply and demand shocks. This allows us to compare supply and demand shocks adjustment dynamics of output and price level among the EU-15 countries. The symmetry of output and price responses to these two kinds of shocks is assessed on the basis of correlation analysis. For our purposes we work with data for the EU-15 countries for the period 1995-2009. Our results suggest higher symmetry in the adjustment process to supply shocks and differences regarding price responses to both kinds of shocks.

The image of the Warsaw Pogrom of 1881 in late nineteenth‐century Polish literature

This article interprets how the Christmas 1881 Warsaw Pogrom was depicted in Polish literature, using novels and short stories written soon after this incident as the source. It considers Eliza Orzeszkowa's “O Żydach i kwestii żydowskiej,” written soon after the pogrom, in which she tried to analyse the reasons for what had happened in Warsaw. Other sources it examines are Konopnicka's short story “Mendel Gdański” and Bolesław Prus's Lalka, which is often considered the best Polish novel of the nineteenth century. In analysing these sources, the article considers the varying responses to the pogrom, which was a kind of shock, since Polish liberals considered their part of the tsarist empire exempt from the anti‐Jewish excesses that had occurred in earlier months in southern Russia. However, the outbreak of violence in the Polish capital inevitably meant a closer re‐examination of the Polish context and its often complex Jewish–gentile relationship.

Shocks and sheaths in the heliosphere

This paper compares three kinds of shocks and sheaths; the bow shock and magnetosheaths of planets, interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) shocks and sheaths, and the termination shock and heliosheath. We compare the energy balance across these shocks, fluctuations in the sheaths, asymmetries, and shock evolution. All three shocks and sheaths display asymmetries imposed by outside magnetic fields. Energy balance is often achieved through reflection of ions of the shocks, but in some cases no reflected ions are observed. The shocks may have similar small scale fluctuations which drive density changes in the sheaths.

The Perils of Empirical Work on Institutions

Empirical work on the effects of legal institutions on development and economic activity has been spectacularly successful over the past decade, if success is measured by the volume of journal articles and citations. If, in the alternative, success is measured by the extent to which research generates credible estimates of the causal effects of legal institutions on economic activity, this literature is doomed to fail. This failure is not due to a lack of skill or creativity on the part of the scholars examining these issues. Instead, it is endemic to the subject matter itself. While modern microeconometrics has made great progress on the issue of causal inference during roughly the same time period that this empirical institutional literature has developed, its methods are simply not applicable in this area. For example, despite ACEMOGLU, JOHNSON, AND ROBINSON’s [2001] extremely clever use of the mortality rates of European settlers as an instrument for institutional type in growth regressions, it is not possible to rule out the possibility that historical mortality rates affect growth rates through channels other than institutions.1 Similar concerns apply to the use of natural experiments since the kinds of shocks that are large enough to change legal and political institutions are likely to change many different kinds of unobservable social phenomena, leading to the strong possibility of omitted variables biases, and our theoretical models of the adoption and evolution of institutions are far too underspecified to allow for successful structural modeling. Panel data methods offer little hope, as well, given institutional inertia and the difficulty in controlling for time-varying national idiosyncrasies that are almost certainly affected by forces that also impact institutions. With these empirical problems, it should come as no surprise when new papers enter the literature finding that relatively small changes to the coding of institutional

Education and the Vulnerability to Food Inadequacy in Timor-Leste

This paper uses a simple empirical approach to estimate vulnerability to food inadequacy using a cross-section data from the 2001 Timor-Leste Living Standard Measurement Survey. This measurement is based on the assumption that households are exposed to the same kind of shock. We find that the distribution of vulnerability to food inadequacy over education of household head is more significant than that of observed food poverty. Our results support the argument that senior primary and tertiary education can help reduce the food risk that households face, i.e., the risk that a household is undernourished. Thus, public spending on these forms of education can provide a form of buoy that favors the poor in Timor-Leste.

Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach

This paper establishes robust dynamic features of the worker reallocation process in the US labor market. I use structural VARs with sign restrictions, which take the form of restricting the short-run negative relationship between vacancies and unemployment (i.e., Beveridge curve). Despite the ‘weakness’ of these restrictions, they reveal a clear, unambiguous pattern that, when unemployment increases and vacancies drop, (i) both the separation rate and gross separations rise quickly and remain persistently high, (ii) the job finding rate and vacancies drop in a hump-shaped manner, and (iii) gross hires respond little initially, but eventually rise. These results point to the importance of job loss in understanding US labor market dynamics. This pattern also holds with respect to different kinds of shocks that induce the same Beveridge curve relationship. This paper also considers the ‘disaggregate model’, which uses data disaggregated into six demographic groups and incorporates transitions into and out of the labor force. I show that the separation rate continues to play a dominant role among prime-age male workers, while, for other groups, changes in the job finding rate are more important. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Single Currency for Pacific Island Countries: a Revisit

This paper re-visits the subject of a common currency for the Pacific region, comprising 14 Pacific island countries (PICs) and the region's two advanced countries, Australia and New Zealand. The PICs are highly dependent on Australia and New Zealand for trade in goods and services and aid inflows. Earlier studies on regional common currency, which dealt with certain aspects of the optimum currency area conditions, took into consideration three kinds of shocks, namely shocks in world output, domestic output and price levels. Since PICs' growth is influenced by regional developments to a larger degree than by world developments, this paper takes into consideration regional shocks, in addition to shocks in global and national outputs. Using variance decomposition analysis in this paper we investigate whether PICs and the region's two advanced countries could be suitable candidates for a currency union.