Study on the Vulnerability and Resilience Factors of Tax Revenues in Developing Countries. Study funded by the European Commission

Abstract

Beyond the general impact of shocks on economic growth there are specific effects of shocks on revenue systems that shape the capacity of governments to react to adverse external events and sustain development expenditure. These effects vary not only with the kinds of shock affecting the economies, but also with the characteristics of these economies (welfare levels, dependence on natural resources, etc.), the political and administrative capacity of states to react to changing situations, and the structure of the tax systems. Shocks do not only affect the level of tax collection, but also the stability and predictability of revenue. The latter is critical with regard to the adaptation to exogenous changes as well as the financial ability of states to recover from adverse external events. This study presents an approach to empirically assess the impact of several kinds of shocks on revenue systems in a broad set of countries, and in developing countries in particular. The study thus contributes to an evidence-based policy of the European Commission aimed at strengthening the capacity of developing countries to absorb external shocks and thereby stabilising development expenditures. In particular, it provides evidence on the vulnerability to external shocks of tax revenues in developing countries and presents policy options to strengthen the resilience of tax systems.