AbstractPlastic is a popular packaging material, but also criticized as a symbol for the make‐use‐dispose economy because of its short lifespan, its dependency on fossil fuels, and its potential contribution to marine litter. To identify current and potential future key factors for the environmental performance of plastic packaging waste (PPW) management in Germany, a life cycle assessment considering five different pathways of PPW (including deposit‐refund systems, separately collected lightweight packaging waste, and treatment of non‐source‐separated residual waste) was performed. The analysis related to the year 2017 and also considered prospective changes in the background system until 2050 by adapting inventories to shared socioeconomic pathways in line with the Paris Agreement. Key factors for the environmental performance were determined by perturbation analysis. Source separation, quality and quantity of recycled plastics, and emissions from the thermal utilization of residues were identified as key factors for the environmental performance of PPW management. While benefits of PPW management are expected to decrease due to prospective system changes, source separation and the separation of plastics from residual waste gain in importance. Potential measures for improving the environmental performance should focus on long‐term key factors, especially separating PPW from the residual waste (in households or in waste treatment facilities) as well as increasing the quantities and qualities of recycled plastics. The present study showed that the evaluation of system performance in view of changing boundary conditions is key to identify optimal configurations of future PPW management.