Kamchatka Volcanoes Research Articles

Relationship of the Vp/Vs Parameter with the State of the Magmatic Substance and Activity of the Northern Group of Volcanoes in Kamchatka

The dynamics of the volcanic activity, magmatic feeding system, accumulation, movement, and composition of magmas, and structure of the roots of the Northern group of volcanoes (NGV) in Kamchatka are considered. The results of monitoring the field of the ratio of seismic P- and S-wave velocities, the VP/VS parameter in the region of the Klyuchevskaya volcanic group based on the data of the volcanic earthquakes registered by a network of telemetric seismic stations are presented. The parameter changes in space and time during the periods of volcanic activity development. Each segment of the volcanic structure and period of activity is characterized by the own behavior of the field of VP/VS values. In the intermediate magmatic chamber, low VP/VS values are observed beneath the Klyuchevskoi volcano at a depth of 8 to 10 km and beneath Plosky Tolbachik at a depth of 3 to 5 km, which is related to the state of the substance and temperature in these areas, and the entry of a new melt portion of magma and the fluid-gas component from the crust and the mantle. The relation of volcanic earthquakes and earthquakes in the focal zone of Kamchatka, i.e., the ratio of the subduction zone (the sinking Pacific Ocean Plate) and the feeding source of volcanoes, is considered. It is shown that the Klyuchevskoi peripheral chamber is not the only area feeding the NGV. According to the values of the VP/VS parameter, the volcanoes have different magma compositions, which is determined by the physicochemical and temperature features of the medium. In our opinion, the feeding area of volcanoes from the Northern group is a neutral layer that we have identified.

ВУЛКАНЫ КАМЧАТКИ

The results of near real-time monitoring of the active Kamchatka volcanoes are described. Continuous monitoring was carried out using three remote methods: 1) seismic monitoring according to automatic telemetric seismic stations; 2) visual and video observation; 3) satellite observation of the thermal anomalies and ash clouds. Daily information about the volcanic activity is published on the Internet (http://www.emsd.ru/~ssl/monitoring/main.htm) since February 2000. Annual results of the seismic activity of the Northern (Shiveluch, Kluchevskoy, Bezymianny, Krestovsky, and Ushkovsky), Avacha (Avachinsky and Koryaksky), Mutnovsky-Gorely volcano group, and Kizimen volcano are presented. 4390 earthquakes with КS=3.0–8.5 were located for the Northern volcano group, 213 earthquakes with КS=1.8–5.7 – for Avacha volcano group, 110 earthquakes with КS=2.7–7.2 – Mutnovsky-Gorely volcano group, 199 earthquakes with КS=3.0–8.5 for Kizimen volcano, and 22 earthquakes with КS=3.7–6.7 for the Zhupanovsky volcano in 2013. Maps of epicenters, quantities of seismic energy, and earthquake distribution according to class are given. All periods of activity were fixed and investigated by remote methods in 2013: intensive volcanic activity of Sheveluch volcano associated with new cone, subplinian summit eruption of Kluchevskoy volcano, seismic and volcanic activity of Zhupanovsky volcano after a 56-year quite period, and the ending of the long-time eruptions: Tolbachik fissure eruption and Kizimen volcano eruption.

Tomographic Images of Magma Chambers Beneath the Avacha and Koryaksky Volcanoes in Kamchatka

AbstractA new tomographic model (Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs ratio) was built for two neighboring active volcanoes, Avacha and Koryaksky, which represent a serious hazard to the population and infrastructure of Petropavlovsk‐Kamchatsky, the main city of Kamchatka, Russia. Arrival times of seismic P and S waves from almost 5,000 local events, recorded by a permanent network of seismic stations during 2009–2018, were used for tomography. The resolution of the derived models was carefully tested by a series of synthetic simulations. Prominent anomalies with extremely high Vp/Vs ratios (up to 2.4) were retrieved directly beneath both volcanoes and interpreted as magma reservoirs containing high degrees of partial melt and/or fluids. Beneath Avacha, the upper limit of the anomaly is located at the depth of ~2 km below the surface. The reservoir appears to be connected to the surface by a neck‐shaped anomaly of high Vp/Vs ratio associated with active seismicity, which is interpreted as a magma and fluid conduit. Beneath Koryaksky, the magma related anomaly is deeper: Its upper limit is located at a depth of ~7 km below the surface. This anomaly is connected with the volcanic cone and is associated with a vertical seismicity cluster, which possibly marks the pathway of fluid ascent and degassing. Between the volcanoes, a 2‐ to 3‐km thick layer of very low Vp and Vs is interpreted as deposits of volcanoclastic sediments. Generally low Vp/Vs ratios in the area between the volcanoes show that the magma reservoirs in the upper crust are not interconnected.

2016 volcano eruptions in Kamchatka and the Northern Kuriles and their danger to aviation

Strong explosive volcanic eruptions are extremely dangerous to the modern jet aircraft as they can produce several cubic kilometers of volcanic ash and aerosols that can be sent to the atmosphere and the stratosphere in several hours to several days during the eruption. In 2016, five from thirty active volcanoes erupted in Kamchatka (Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, Karymsky, and Zhupanovsky) and three from six active volcanoes in the Northern Kuriles (Alaid, Ebeko, and Chikurachki). Effusive volcanic activity was noted at Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny and Alaid. All the volcanoes produced explosive activity. Strong explosive events occurred at Sheveluch mainly from September till December. Moderate ash emission had accompanied of Klyuchevskoy’s eruption through March till November. Explosive activity at Karymsky, Zhupanovsky, Alaid, and Chikurachki volcanoes was observed mainly in the first half of the year. The total area covered by ash in 2016 was estimated 600,000 km2, from which 460,000 km2 were related to the eruptions of Kamchatka volcanoes and 140,000 km2 were attributed to the eruption of the North Kuriles volcanoes. The activity at Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, and Zhupanovsky was dangerous to international and local airlines as explosions produced ash up to 10-12 km above sea level. The activity at Bezymianny, Karymsky, Alaid, Ebeko, and Chikurachki posed a threat to local aircrafts when explosions sent ash up to 5 km above sea level.

2016 volcano eruptions in Kamchatka and the Northern Kuriles and their danger to aviation

Strong explosive volcanic eruptions are extremely dangerous to the modern jet aircraft as they can produce several cubic kilometers of volcanic ash and aerosols that can be sent to the atmosphere and the stratosphere in several hours to several days during the eruption. In 2016, five from thirty active volcanoes erupted in Kamchatka (Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, Karymsky, and Zhupanovsky) and three from six active volcanoes in the Northern Kuriles (Alaid, Ebeko, and Chikurachki). Effusive volcanic activity was noted at Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny and Alaid. All the volcanoes produced explosive activity. Strong explosive events occurred at Sheveluch mainly from September till December. Moderate ash emission had accompanied of Klyuchevskoy’s eruption through March till November. Explosive activity at Karymsky, Zhupanovsky, Alaid, and Chikurachki volcanoes was observed mainly in the first half of the year. The total area covered by ash in 2016 was estimated 600,000 km2, from which 460,000 km2 were related to the eruptions of Kamchatka volcanoes and 140,000 km2 were attributed to the eruption of the North Kuriles volcanoes. The activity at Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, and Zhupanovsky was dangerous to international and local airlines as explosions produced ash up to 10-12 km above sea level. The activity at Bezymianny, Karymsky, Alaid, Ebeko, and Chikurachki posed a threat to local aircrafts when explosions sent ash up to 5 km above sea level.

Unrest of the Udina volcano in Kamchatka inferred from the analysis of seismicity and seismic tomography

The Udina complex, consisting of two stratovolcanoes—Bolshaya and Malaya Udinas—is located at the southeastern edge of the Klyuchevskoy volcano group (KGV) in Kamchatka. Prior to 2017, it was considered to be extinct; however, since late 2017, continuing seismic activity beneath Bolshaya Udina has been recorded, which may indicate the possible awakening of this volcano complex. To perform a detailed investigation of this seismic process, we installed four temporary seismic stations in the vicinity of the Udinas0 volcanoes and operated them for two months—from May to July 2018. Using the data obtained from this network, we detected and localized 559 local events in the area of the Udina volcanoes. Furthermore, we performed a tomographic inversion to improve the locations of the sources. The tomography unexpectedly resulted in a stable model, which was carefully verified via a series of different tests. We found that the seismicity formed an elliptical cluster oriented in the north-northeast–south-southwest direction. Beneath the volcano, the seismicity occurred at depths of greater than 5 km from the surface. In the tomography model, we observed an anomaly of a high Vp, low Vs, and high Vp/Vs ratio located directly beneath Bolshaya Udina. These seismic properties may indicate the presence of magma intrusions with a high content of melts and fluids, which may justify changing the current status of this volcano from “extinct” to “active.” We also observed that the seismicity cluster connects Bolshaya Udina with the Tolud zone, where continuous seismicity has been observed at depths of approximately 10–20 km in previous years. This zone is considered to be a magma storage in the lower crust that contributed to feeding the fissure eruptions in the Tolbachinsky Dol. Based on the results of this study, we conclude that during 2018, the Tolud magma source appeared to have built another pathway to Bolshaya Udina.

The 2016 Eruptions in Kamchatka and on the North Kuril Islands: The Hazard to Aviation

Large explosive eruptions of volcanoes pose the highest hazard to modern jet flights, because such eruptions can eject as much as several cubic kilometers of volcanic ash and aerosol into the atmosphere during a few hours or days. The year 2016 saw eruptions on 5 of the 30 active Kamchatka volcanoes (Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, Karymsky, and Zhupanovsky) and on 3 of the 6 active volcanoes that exist on the North Kuril Islands (Alaid, Ebeko, and Chikurachki). Effusive activity was observed on Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, and Alaid. All volcanoes showed explosive activity. The large explosive events mostly occurred from September through December (Sheveluch), a moderate ash emission accompanied the entire Klyuchevskoy eruption in March–November, and explosive activity of Karymsky, Zhupanovsky, Alaid, and Chikurachki was mostly observed in the earlier half of the year. The ash ejected in 2016 covered a total area of 600 000 km2, with 460 000 km2 of this being due to Kamchatka volcanoes and 140 000 km2 to the eruptions of the North Kuril volcanoes. The activity of Sheveluch, Klyuchevskoy, and Zhupanovsky was dangerous to international and local flights, because the explosions sent ash to heights of 10–12 km above sea level, while the eruptions of Bezymianny, Karymsky, Alaid, Ebeko, and Chikurachki were dangerous for local flights, since the ash did not rise higher than 5 km above sea level.

Dehydration of melt inclusions in olivine and implications for the origin of silica-undersaturated island-arc melts

Primary subduction-related magmas build up modern continental crust and counterbalance massive recycling of crustal material into the deep mantle occurring at this tectonic setting. Melt inclusions in Mg-rich olivine are believed to be the best probes of primary subduction-related melts. However, unexpectedly, most of such inclusions are SiO2-undersaturated, in contrast to predominantly SiO2-saturated island-arc rocks. The origin of these melts has been explained by melting of amphibole-bearing pyroxenites in the lower crust or upper mantle. The current models fail, however, to explain the high abundance of SiO2-undersaturated melts as well as their compositional difference with host rocks for the major elements but not for incompatible trace elements. Here we report results from the investigation of rocks and melt inclusions in olivine from Klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka. We show that experimental re-hydration of SiO2-undersaturated melt inclusions in olivine Fo85−90 at 300 MPa pressure and 1200°C causes a concomitant enrichment of melt in H2O and SiO2 so that re-hydrated inclusions (4–5 wt% H2O) become as silica-saturated as primitive Klyuchevskoy rocks. An experimental dehydration of previously re-hydrated inclusions also resulted in coupled depletion of melt in H2O and SiO2. The estimated stoichiometry of SiO2 and H2O gain/loss is consistent with dissolution/crystallization of metal-defect olivine on inclusion walls. The migration mechanism of water is controlled by hydrogen diffusion in the octahedral metal (Mg, Fe) vacancies through olivine structure as confirmed by FTIR spectroscopy. We conclude that the previously reported SiO2-undersaturated composition of many melt inclusions from hypersthene-normative island-arc rocks can be explained by the coupled loss of up to several weight percent of H2O and SiO2 from the initially trapped primitive SiO2-saturated hydrous melts. Thus, SiO2-undersaturated melt inclusions may not be representative of primitive island-arc magmas. The discovery of the coupled SiO2 and H2O loss from inclusions allowed us to propose a method for reconstruction of the initial water content even for completely dehydrated inclusions. The results of this study may indicate that the majority of primitive island-arc inclusions have not preserved their initial H2O content, and that primary arc melts contain on average ≥4 wt% H2O. The higher H2O concentration in primary arc melts implies the existence of a ‘crustal filter’ controlling the water content, which can be preserved in melt inclusions, and also the lower mantle melting temperatures and higher output H2O fluxes in subduction zones than previously estimated based on direct determination of H2O in potentially dehydrated melt inclusions.

Volcanism and geochemistry of soil and vegetation cover of Kamchatka. Communication 1. Geochemical features of volcanic surface ashes

Common geochemical features of volcanic near-surface ashes of Kamchatka (ashes located under the surface organogenic soil horizons) are their depletion by most chemical elements in comparison with average indicators for volcanic rocks of corresponding composition and relative enrichment of a limited range of elements, mainly typomorphic for main rocks (P, Mg V, Cr, Cu, Zn, Zr, Sb). Against the background of small variations in the contents of chemical elements in the ashes of different areas of the peninsula, the range of their priority elements is determined by their petrochemical composition. The active activity of the Northern group of volcanoes of Kamchatka causes a relatively high content of mobile forms of elements in the near-surface ashes of the Northern province in comparison with the ashes of the southern part of the peninsula.

Volcanism and geochemistry of soil and vegetation cover of Kamchatka. Communication 1. Geochemical features of volcanic surface ashes

Common geochemical features of volcanic near-surface ashes of Kamchatka (ashes located under the surface organogenic soil horizons) are their depletion by most chemical elements in comparison with average indicators for volcanic rocks of corresponding composition and relative enrichment of a limited range of elements, mainly typomorphic for main rocks (P, Mg V, Cr, Cu, Zn, Zr, Sb). Against the background of small variations in the contents of chemical elements in the ashes of different areas of the peninsula, the range of their priority elements is determined by their petrochemical composition. The active activity of the Northern group of volcanoes of Kamchatka causes a relatively high content of mobile forms of elements in the near-surface ashes of the Northern province in comparison with the ashes of the southern part of the peninsula.

Influence of hydrous pyrolysis on distribution of carbon and hydrogen isotopes by organic matter fractions. The nature of oil generation in the calder of Uzone Volcano in Kamchatka

The process of oil seeps transformation from the Uzon volcano caldera under the influence of hydrous pyrolysis at a temperature of 350 °C in argon and oxygen was investigated. It is shown that carbon and hydrogen isotope type curves (ITC) reflect the processes occurring in organic matter during hydrous pyrolysis in oxidizing and neutral media. The similarity in forms between carbon ITC of the Uzon oil seeps, the Bogachevka oil and biota of hydrothermal sources is revealed. Hydrogen ITCs have a more complex form, apparently associated with exchange processes occurring in hydrothermal water. Based on the conducted studies, it was assumed that on the one hand oil seeps in the Uzon caldera can serve as a source for the formation of Bogachevka oil, and on the other hand, it is possible that the circulating hydrothermal water in the caldera of the Uzon volcano brings to the surface the organic matter of the Bogachevka oil formation.

Hydrothermae and volcanoes of Kamchatka

Hydrothermae and volcanoes of Kamchatka are concentrated in the Mid-Kamchatka, East-Kamchatka volcanic belts oriented in NE∼50° direction subparallel to the Kurile-Kamchatka Trench. A similar direction is also typical for modern open fault zones accompanying Planetary fault at the eastern coasts of Kamchatka [8]; it corresponds to the direction of the Thermal Rift and the zones of depressions controlling geothermal objects. Such coincidences are clearly not accidental. Having regard to the above, it became necessary to consider the features of the most studied Paratunka geothermal field relative to the existing volcanic belts of Kamchatka. Based on the actual data, the possibility of forming a standard Paratunka field as a result of post-caldera volcanism manifested at the boundary of volcano tectonic structure is shown. By analogy with the Paratunka field, the hypothesis of the peninsula formation as a result of the confluence of two super volcanoes with a common crater structure in the Klyuchevskoi group of volcanoes was suggested. The formation of the volcanic belts of Kamchatka is considered from the perspective of the manifestation of the post-caldera volcanism.

Новые таксоны Agrostis, Deschampsia, Hyalopoa и Poa (Poaceae) с Дальнего Востока России и из Восточной Сибири

Six new taxa in the family Poaceae are described from the Russian Far East and from East Siberia: Deschampsia komandorensis Prob. (sect. Deschampsia) from Commander Islands (Bering Island, North-West Cape), Agrostis × avatschensis Prob. (A. kudoi Honda × A. mertensii Trin.) from Avachinskii Volcano in Kamchatka, Poa archarensis Prob. (sect. Stenopoa) (revealed chromosome number 2n = 28) from Amur Region and Yakutia, Poa × alexandrae Prob. (sect. Stenopoa) from Magadan Region, Hyalopoa amgunensis Prob. (H. aggr. lanatiflora) from Khabarovsk Territory (Amgun River basin), Poa turgensis Prob. (sect. Stenopoa) from Transbaikalia.

Diamonds in the Kamchatka Peninsula (Tolbachik and Avacha Volcanoes): Natural Origin or Contamination?

Abstract —Lavas of the Kamchatka volcanoes store cubic-octahedral diamonds identical in morphology and structure to synthetic crystals, and their natural origin is doubted. Judging by published data, the diamonds discovered in the Tolbachik lavas are similar to synthetic diamonds made by different producers, and the analyzed samples rather result from contamination with synthetic material. Ophiolite-hosted diamonds reported from Europe, China, Mongolia, and Polar Urals look like the Tolbachik diamonds and are of the same type. The similarity between crystals coming from geologically dissimilar objects indicates that contamination may occur in those cases as well. Thus, diamonds found in unusual hosts or geologic settings require careful checking. These findings have to be reproduced repeatedly in other in situ samples and approved by independent experts; with all respect to the priority of the first finders, the sampling sites should be open to many researchers, especially the respective specialists. The inevitable disproval of false diamond findings is discouraging and discredits the true discoveries. Possible contamination with synthetic or natural material from cutting tools has to be excluded in all newly found diamonds before claiming their natural origin.

Сравнение спектральных характеристик отражения вулканов Камчатки по данным авиационных и спутниковых измерений

Сравнение спектральных характеристик отражения вулканов Камчатки по данным авиационных и спутниковых измерений

Scientific Support for Policy Making to Protect Lake Baikal and Develop Baikal’s Natural Territory

In Russia, along with many other countries, the state and international institutions have established regions of outstanding universal value, which are World Heritage Sites. They are regulated based on the World Heritage Convention, e.g., Lake Baikal, the Volcanoes of Kamchatka, and the Golden Mountains of Altai. These special regions require long-term legal, institutional, and economic instruments to achieve their purpose. Among the most complex objectives is to improve the functioning of the instruments for the protection and conservation of unique natural complexes as a core life-sustaining condition of the country and the world. In December 1996 Lake Baikal was recognized as a World Heritage Site as approved at the session of the UNESCO World Heritage Committee. Since then, the Russian Federation bears a legal, economic, and moral obligation in front of the world community to preserve the value of the lake. The existing Federal Law On Protecting Lake Baikal is the only Russian Federal law adopted with respect to a specific natural site.

Chromium spinel in Late Quaternary volcanic rocks from Kamchatka: Implications for spatial compositional variability of subarc mantle and its oxidation state

The Kamchatka volcanic arc (Russia) is one of best-studied, but most complex tectonic margins on Earth, with an extensive geologic history extending back to the Late Cretaceous. Unlike many other subduction zones, primitive basalts with Mg# > 65 are abundant in Kamchatka, thereby allowing characterization of the mantle source through compositional analyses of near-liquidus minerals in the rocks. In this paper, we present a comprehensive dataset on the composition of Cr-spinel inclusions in olivine for all main Late Quaternary volcanic zones in Kamchatka, comprising 1604 analyses of spinel inclusions and their host-olivine in 104 samples from 30 volcanic complexes (single volcanoes and volcanic fields). The studied rocks are basalts, basaltic andesites and high-Mg andesites, which cover the whole compositional range of the primitive Late Quaternary volcanic rocks in Kamchatka. The spinel composition shows large variability. Spinel inclusions with the lowest Cr# and Fe3+/Fe2+ ratios were found in basalts from Sredinny Range and Northern Kamchatka, whereas the most Cr-rich and oxidized spinel inclusions occur in basalts and high-Mg andesites from the Central Kamchatka Depression. Intermediate Cr-spinel compositions characterize the Eastern Volcanic Belt of Kamchatka. The compositions of olivine-spinel pairs were used to quantify the oxidation state of parental Kamchatka magmas and the degree of partial mantle melting. The redox conditions recorded in spinel compositions range from ΔQFM = +0.7 to +3.7. ΔQFM for spinel from the Sredinny Range and Northern Kamchatka correlates with a number of whole-rock proxies for the involvement of slab-derived components (e.g., La/Nb and Ba/La), which suggests a coupling between mantle oxidation state and slab-derived fluid/melt metasomatism. These correlations were not observed in frontal Kamchatka volcanoes with the highest estimated ΔQFM, which possibly indicates buffering of the mantle oxidation state by sulfur. The estimated degrees of partial mantle melting range from 8 to >20% for Kamchatka volcanoes. Spinel from the Central Kamchatka Depression has the highest Cr# and could crystallize from magmas generated from the most depleted sources. In contrast to the Eastern Volcanic Belt, spinel Cr# and the inferred degrees of melting in the Central Kamchatka Depression do not correlate with spinel TiO2 content. The apparent decoupling between the proxies of mantle depletion in the CKD spinel is interpreted to reflect refertilization of the CKD mantle by oxidized Ti-rich slab- or mantle lithosphere-derived melts near the northern edge of the subducting Pacific Plate. This study demonstrates that the composition of Cr-spinel in volcanic rocks in combination with bulk-rock compositions can be a powerful tool to map regional variations of the mantle source depletion, oxidation state, and involvement of various slab-derived components in island-arc magmatism.

The First Results of U–Pb Dating of the Nikolka Volcano (Central Kamchatka Depression)

U–Pb dating of zircon from amphibole latite of the central stock of the Nikolka shield volcano in Kamchatka provided the first data on its age. The end of activity falls to about 0.73 Ma (10 analyses). The local U–Pb analyses were carried out at the Isotope Research Center, Schmidt Joint Institute of Physics of the Earth (St. Petersburg) (VSEGEI) using SIMS SHRIMP II. Here, brief information about the geological structure, petrography, and chemistry of the rocks of the volcano are presented. A unique feature of the volcano is the occurrence of a gabbro–anorthosite sheet intrusion with derivates of monzonite and syenite composition in its central part. The correlation of the age obtained with the paleomagnetic data, indicating the formation of the volcano during the magnetic age of Matuyama, is also discussed. The date refers to the period of the change in epochs from the Brunhes to the Matuyama. The obtained age allows dating of the Pliocene volcanic stage in Kamchatka, when large shield volcanoes and plateaus formed.

Deposits, petrology and mechanism of the 2010–2013 eruption of Kizimen volcano in Kamchatka, Russia

Kizimen volcano in Kamchatka is well known as a source of highly heterogeneous poorly mingled magmas ranging from dacites to basaltic andesites. In 2010–2013, the volcano produced its first historical magmatic eruption with the deposition of 0.27 km3 of block and ash pyroclastic flows accompanied by slow extrusion of a 200-m-thick, highly viscous (1010–1011 Pa s) block lava flow with a volume of 0.3 km3. The total volume of erupted magma comprised approximately 0.4 km3 DRE. We provide description of the eruption chronology, as well as the lithology and petrology of eruptive products. The erupted material is represented by banded dacite and high-silica andesite. The dacitic magma was formed during a long dormancy after the previous magmatic eruption several hundred years ago with mineral compositions indicating average pre-eruptive temperatures of ~ 810 °C, fO2 of 0.9–1.6 log units above the nickel–nickel oxide (NNO) buffer and shallow crustal storage conditions at ~ 123 MPa. The silica-rich andesite represents a hybrid magma, which shows signs of recent thermal and compositional disequilibrium. We suggest that the hybrid magma started to form in 1963 when a swarm of deep earthquakes indicated an input of mafic magma from depth into the 6–11-km-deep silicic magma chamber. It took the following 46 years until the magma filling the chamber reached an eruptible state. Poor mingling of the two melts is attributed to its unusually high viscosity that could be associated with the pre-eruptive long-term leakage of volatiles from the chamber through a regional tectonic fault. Our investigations have shown that shallow magma chambers of dormant volcanoes demonstrating strong persistent fumarolic activity can contain highly viscous, degassed magma of evolved composition. Reactivation of such magma chambers by injection of basic magma takes a long time (several decades). Thus, eruption forecasts at such volcanoes should include a possibility of long time lag between a swarm of deep earthquakes (indicating the recharge of basic magma from depth) and the following swarm of shallow earthquakes (indicating final ascent of the hybrid magma towards the surface). Due to the high viscosity of the magma, the shallow swarm can last for more than a year. The forthcoming eruption can be of moderate to low explosivity and include extrusion of viscous lava flows and domes composed of poorly mingled magmas of contrasting compositions.

The Predictability of the Seismicity on Shiveluch Volcano

This paper presents the results from estimating the predictability of the seismicity of Shiveluch Volcano based on the earthquake catalog for the Northern Group of Kamchatka Volcanoes for 1971–1996 and 1999–2013. The mathematical model that we employed is a nonlinear second-order differential equation, while the algorithms of optimization and predictability are ours. The calculations show that seismicity can be successfully predicted for time intervals of a few weeks to a few months during phases of higher activity and for times of between a few months and a few years during phases of lower seismicity. The prediction distances are in excess of the error by factors of 20 to 50 on average. The nonlinearities in both times of higher and lower rates are close to the law of an equilateral hyperbola. We concluded that the predictability of seismicity can possibly be used in an integrated complex to predict extrusive and effusive activity and accompanying explosive activity. The prediction of major bursts of explosive activity related to failure in the existing volcanic edifice requires additional monitoring of the dome structure and the stability of the rocks that make up the dome.