The Predictability of the Seismicity on Shiveluch Volcano

Abstract

This paper presents the results from estimating the predictability of the seismicity of Shiveluch Volcano based on the earthquake catalog for the Northern Group of Kamchatka Volcanoes for 1971–1996 and 1999–2013. The mathematical model that we employed is a nonlinear second-order differential equation, while the algorithms of optimization and predictability are ours. The calculations show that seismicity can be successfully predicted for time intervals of a few weeks to a few months during phases of higher activity and for times of between a few months and a few years during phases of lower seismicity. The prediction distances are in excess of the error by factors of 20 to 50 on average. The nonlinearities in both times of higher and lower rates are close to the law of an equilateral hyperbola. We concluded that the predictability of seismicity can possibly be used in an integrated complex to predict extrusive and effusive activity and accompanying explosive activity. The prediction of major bursts of explosive activity related to failure in the existing volcanic edifice requires additional monitoring of the dome structure and the stability of the rocks that make up the dome.