Kabul River Basin Research Articles

Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings

AbstractIncreased flood risks have been projected, but with large uncertainties, in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan). To place future changes in a long‐term perspective, we produce a 382‐year precipitation reconstruction for the basin using seven tree‐ring chronologies of old‐growth conifers from the Hindu Kush Mountains, a monsoon‐shadow area. The reconstruction proves robust over rigorous cross‐validations (R2 = 0.60, RE = 0.60, CE = 0.53). The full reconstruction (1637–2018) reveals a steady decline in the low end of the precipitation distribution, implying increasing drought risks. We show that droughts are getting more severe, shorter, and more frequent, interspersed with more frequent pluvials in the past century. Drought risks, compounded with projected flood intensification, pose significant threats for this transboundary river. Therefore, future water management needs to account for both flood and drought risks and be informed by long‐term hydroclimatic variability.

Impact of climate change on extreme floods under high-end warming scenario RCP8.5 for the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan

Impact of climate change on extreme floods under high-end warming scenario RCP8.5 for the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan

Application of the SWAT model to assess climate and land use/cover change impacts on water balance components of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

Abstract Hydrological models play a key role in simulating and assessing climate and land use/cover (LULC) change impacts on hydrology in a watershed. In this study, the impact of climate and LULC change was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulated and observed streamflow showed a good agreement. Both Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were found to be greater than 0.7 during the calibration (1985–2002) and validation (2003–2012) period. The water balance components were simulated with inputs from downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) data (i.e., future scenario (2030–2100) relative to a baseline period (1974–2004)) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and hypothetical generated LULC change scenarios. All GCMs projected an increase in temperature over the Kabul River Basin (KRB), whereas there was a lack of agreement on projected precipitation among GCMs under both emission and future scenarios. Water yield (WYLD) and evapotranspiration (ET) were projected to decrease in the 21st century. Average annual WYLD was projected to increase under the agriculture-dominant scenario, whereas it decreased under forest and grassland-dominant scenarios. These results are valuable for relevant agencies and stakeholders to adopt measures to counter the negative impacts of climate and LULC change on water resources.

Quantification of Water Resource Sustainability in Response to Drought Risk Assessment for Afghanistan River Basins

Drought in Afghanistan has many impacts from the interaction between environmental and socio-economic factors in the agriculture and water supply sectors. The complex topography and climate change impacts cause high spatial and temporal variation in the precipitation pattern and pose several challenges in managing water resources. Therefore, this paper aimed to quantify the sustainability of water resources against the progression of drought. Observed monthly precipitation data monitored by 23 stations located across five river basins covering the entire country for the period 1970–2016 were used to demonstrate the potential impacts of drought on water resources sustainability. Based on severe drought estimation, the year 2000 and 2001 were identified as change points. Accordingly, datasets pertaining to before and after the change points were partitioned to analyze the long-term temporal shift of drought. The spatiotemporal variability of sustainability indicators was estimated using reliability resiliency and vulnerability concept. The results indicated a positive trend of precipitation in most of the river basins after the change points leading to an increase in sustainability. However, the major portion in the upstream of the Kabul River basin showed a decrease in sustainability of around 15% due to a reduction in precipitation. As the Kabul city has high population density, it needs immediate attention in effectively planning and managing available water resources. Furthermore, the comprehensive analyses reported in this paper discuss the possible implications of drought risk assessment and its impact on largely varying sustainability both spatially and temporally in Afghanistan.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Groundwater Storage Changes, Controlling Factors, and Management Options over the Transboundary Indus Basin

Intensive groundwater abstraction has augmented socio-economic development worldwide but threatens the sustainability of groundwater resources. Spatiotemporal analysis of groundwater storage changes is a prerequisite to sustainable water resource management over river basins. To estimate the groundwater storage changes/anomalies (GWCs) in the Indus River Basin (IRB), where observation wells are sparse, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, the Global Land Data Assimilation System, and the WaterGAP Hydrological Model data were employed. The groundwater storage changes and controlling factors were investigated at three tier levels (TTLs), i.e., the basin, river reach, and region, to explore their implications on regional water resource management and provide management options at each level. Overall, the IRB groundwater declined from January 2003 to December 2016, with a relatively higher rate during 2003–2009 than during 2010–2016. Spatially, according to a reach-specific analysis, 24%, 14%, and 2% of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the IRB, respectively, were indicated by a ‘severe groundwater decline’ over the entire period (i.e., 2003–2016). The GRACE-based GWCs were validated with in situ data of two heterogeneous regions, i.e., Kabul River Basin (KRB) and Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC). The analysis showed a correlation (R2) of 0.77 for LBDC and 0.29 for KRB. This study’s results reveal that climatic variations (increase in evapotranspiration); anthropogenic activities, i.e., pumping for irrigation; and water allocations in these regions mainly drive the groundwater storage changes across the Indus Basin.

Simulating future flood risks under climate change in the source region of the Indus River

AbstractPakistan experiences extreme flood events almost every year during the monsoon season. Recently, flood events have become more disastrous as their frequency and magnitude have increased due to climate change. This situation is further worsened due to the limited capacity of existing water reservoirs and their ability to absorb and mitigate peak floods. Thus, the simulation of stream flows using projected data from climate models is essential to assess flood events and proper water resource management in the country. This study investigates the future floods (in near future and far future periods) using the integrated flood analysis system (IFAS) model under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Downscaled and bias corrected climatic data of six general circulation models and their ensemble were used in this study. The IFAS model simulated the stream flow efficiently (R2 = 0.86–0.93 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.72–0.92) in the Jhelum River basin (JRB), Kabul River basin (KRB), and upper Indus River basin (UIRB) during the calibration and validation periods. The simulation results of the model showed significant impact of projected climate change on stream flows that will cause the mean monthly stream flow in the JRB to be lower, while that of the KRB and UIRB to be higher than that of the historical period. The highest flow months are expected to shift from May–June (Jhelum basin) and June–July (Kabul basin) to April–May with no changes in the UIRB. Higher frequencies of low to medium floods are projected in the KRB and UIRB, while the JRB expects fewer flood events. Based on the results from the IFAS model, it is concluded that stream flow in the study area will increase with several flood events.

Variability in runoff and responses to land and oceanic parameters in the source region of the Indus River

Understanding the coherent variability of runoff in the Source Region of the Indus River (SRIR) with the regional environmental parameters (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration-PET, NDVI, NDSI), and global oceanic indices (El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Indian Summer Monsoon Index (ISMI) is of paramount importance. This study has attempted to show the relationship of the SRIR runoff with the regional meteorological and global oceanic indices. The monotonic Mann-Kendal, Sen Slope, and wavelet analysis were employed to assess the trends and periodicity in the hydro-meteorological variables. Monthly runoff from all sub-basins shows increasing trends from October to March and decreases from April to September, except for western tributaries. Most sub-basins in the SRIR are experiencing significant increases in winter while decreases in summer. The annual runoff trend suggests an increase after 2000 from the Kabul River Basin (KRB). However, contrasting results are evident in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). The Jhelum River Basin (JRB) has shown a significant declining trend since the mid-1990s. Annual runoff (3.19 m3/s), precipitation (0.24 mm/year), temperature (0.011 °C/year), and NDVI (0.002) increased in the SRIR, whereas PET (−0.020 mm/year) and NDSI (−0.003) declined during 1970–2016. In general, built-up grassland, snow/ice, water bodies, and wetlands increased, while barren land, cropland, and forest/shrubland declined between 2001 and 2018. Overall, all the factors displayed a positive correlation with runoff. Generally, runoff has a stronger association with regional environmental factors than global, as evident in correlation and wavelet analysis, which implies that local factors had a more significant effect on runoff. However, NAO, AO, and ISMI shared a significant correlation other than the regional environmental factors concerning the oceanic indices. The warmer and wetter climate hastened the melting of snow/glaciers via runoff variation, and rising water inputs may have had a secondary impact on the SRIR. These findings have significant implications for decision-makers seeking to enhance water resource planning and operations in the SRIR in the context of future water management.

Metrics Assessment and Streamflow Modeling under Changing Climate in a Data-Scarce Heterogeneous Region: A Case Study of the Kabul River Basin

Due to many uncertainties in hydrological data and modeling, the findings are frequently regarded as unreliable, especially in heterogeneous catchments such as the Kabul River Basin (KRB). Besides, statistical methods to assess the performance of the models have also been called into doubt in several studies. We evaluated the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model by statistical indicators including the Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2) at single and multi-outlets in the KRB and assessed the streamflow under changing climate scenarios i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 (2020–2045). Because of the heterogeneous nature of the KRB, NSE and R2 performed poorly at multi-outlets. However, the KGE, as the basic objective function, fared much better at single-outlet. We conclude that KGE is the most crucial metric for streamflow evaluation in heterogeneous basins. Similarly, the mean and maximum annual streamflow is projected to decrease by 15.2–15.6% and 17.2–41.8% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.

Investigation of the Vegetation Coverage Dynamics and its Relation to Atmospheric Patterns in Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan

Investigation of the Vegetation Coverage Dynamics and its Relation to Atmospheric Patterns in Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan

An Evaluation of the Extreme Rainfall Event of 2010 over the Kabul River Basin using the WRF Model

Extreme precipitation events are among the most severe weather hazards. Knowledge about the spatial patterns underlying such events in the Upper Indus Basin is limited because estimating precipitation is very challenging due to the data scarcity and the complex orography. Numerical weather prediction models can be applied at a fine resolution to overcome this issue. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1 was applied over the Kabul River Basin to simulate the temperature and precipitation of monsoon season 2010, i.e., 1st May to 16th September 2010. We considered the May month as a spin-up period. The initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The model was set up by using two-nested domains with increasing horizontal resolution moving inward from 15km on domain d01 to 5km on domain d02. The simulations were compared with TRMM 3B42, and station data collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and Water and the Power Development Authority using bias, percentage bias, root mean square error, and Pearson correlation. The results revealed that the simulated precipitation was improved from d01 to d02. However, the model showed mixed results with overestimation of precipitation at some stations and underestimations at others. Simulated precipitation generally agreed better with TRMM than with station data. Overall, the results indicate that the WRF model can be used to simulate heavy precipitation in complex terrain.

Influence of headwater reservoirs on climate change impacts and flood frequency in the Kabul River Basin

Although climate change impacts vary globally, for the Kabul River Basin (KRB), concerns are primarily associated with frequent flooding. This research describes the influence of headwater reservoirs on projections of climate change impacts and flood frequency, and how riparian countries can benefit from storing of floodwaters for use during dry seasons. Six climate change scenarios and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used in three periods of a quarter-century each. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess how the proposed reservoirs will reduce flooding by ∼38% during the wet season, reduce the flood frequency from five to 25 years return period, and increase low flows by ∼110% during the dry season, which reflect an ∼17.5% reduction in the glacier-covered area by the end of the century. The risks and benefits of reservoirs are highlighted in light of the developmental goals of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

RUSLE-based soil erosion assessment and erosion control evaluation in the Kabul Watershed

The development and conservation of water and soil in the Kabul River Basin are critical for ensuring its sustainable economic, social, and environmental progress. Since the watershed drains across the international borders into the Indus River Basin, it is key for both up- and downstream countries to thoroughly plan their resource development and management. Due to relief, soil and climatic conditions, as well as the recent deforestation the Kabul River Basin has been witnessing significant soil erosion by water, indicating the need for analyzing its specifics and deploying proper control measures. This study was carried out using the combination of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) Model and GIS techniques to investigate the gross soil loss rates and their spatial distribution inside the target basin. Thus, the annual average soil loss rate was estimated at 15.1 tons/ha/year, pointing to severe local soil erosion. As to its spatial distribution, according to the study up to 99% of mean annual soil loss rates fell within the tolerable (0-5 tons/acre/year) category. Considering the soil loss rates, local topography, and community-based participatory approaches, the authors recommend conducting a further detailed diagnostic analysis to inform and support subsequent control measures such as deforestation prevention, construction of small check dams, terracing, trenching in hilly areas, revegetation (reforestation) of open- and grasslands, and rainwater harvesting.

Evaluation of GRACE derived groundwater storage changes in different agro-ecological zones of the Indus Basin

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has recently been identified as a useful tool for monitoring changes in groundwater storage (GWS), especially in areas with sparse groundwater monitoring networks. However, GRACE's performance has not been evaluated in the highly heterogeneous Indus Basin (IB) to date. The objective of this study was thus (i) to evaluate GRACE's performance in two distinctively different agro-ecological zones of the IB, and (ii) to quantify the trend of groundwater abstraction over 15 years (i.e., from 2002 to 2017). To capture this heterogeneity at the IB, the two different agro-ecological zones were selected: i) the Kabul River Basin (KRB), Afghanistan, and ii) the Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) command area in Pakistan. The groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) for both regions were extracted from random pixels. The results show a correlation (R2) of 0.46 for LBDC and 0.32 for the KRB, between the GWSA and in-situ measurements. The results further reveal a mean annual depletion in GWSA of −304.2 ± 749 and −301 ± 527 mm at the LBDC and the KRB, respectively. Overall, a net GWS depletion during 2002–2017 at the LBDC and KRB was 4.87 and 4.82 m, respectively. The GWSA’s response to precipitation analyzed through cross-correlation shows a lag of 4 and 3 months at the KRB and the LBDC, respectively. The GWSA's poor correlation with the in-situ measurements particularly in the mountainous region of the KRB is driven by the 4 months lag time unlike in the LBDC (i.e. 3 months); besides, the observations wells are sparse and limited. The complex geomorphology and slope of the landscape also cause discrepancies in the correlation of the in-situ measurements and the GRACE-derived changes in GWS at the two different agroecological zones of the IB. The spatially averaged GWSA in monthly time steps is another reason for the lower correlation between GRACE-based GWSA estimates and point-based in-situ measurements. Therefore, care must be taken while using GRACE's output in regions with heterogeneous geomorphologic features.

Coupling Remote Sensing and Hydrological Model for Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow in Data-Scarce Environment

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) in Afghanistan is densely inhabited and heterogenic. The basin’s water resources are limited, and climate change is anticipated to worsen this problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of data to measure the impacts of climate change on the KRB’s current water resources. The objective of the current study is to introduce a methodology that couples remote sensing and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating the impact of climate change on the existing water resources of the KRB. Most of the biophysical parameters required for the SWAT model were derived from remote sensing-based algorithms. The SUFI-2 technique was used for calibrating and validating the SWAT model with streamflow data. The stream-gauge stations for monitoring the streamflow are not only sparse, but the streamflow data are also scarce and limited. Therefore, we selected only the stations that are properly being monitored. During the calibration period, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were 0.75–0.86 and 0.62–0.81, respectively. During the validation period (2011–2013), the NSE and R2 values were 0.52–0.73 and 0.65–0.86, respectively. The validated SWAT model was then used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4-4) was used to extract the data for the climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from the CORDEX domain. The results show that streamflow in most tributaries of the KRB would decrease by a maximum of 5% and 8.5% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, streamflow for the Nawabad tributary would increase by 2.4% and 3.3% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. To mitigate the impact of climate change on reduced/increased surface water availability, the SWAT model, when combined with remote sensing data, can be an effective tool to support the sustainable management and strategic planning of water resources. Furthermore, the methodological approach used in this study can be applied in any of the data-scarce regions around the world.

The Role of Large Dams in a Transboundary Drought Management Co-Operation Framework—Case Study of the Kabul River Basin

Hydrologic drought is a frequent phenomenon in the transboundary Kabul River Basin (KRB), the vital resource shared between the two nations of Afghanistan and Pakistan. While the KRB has vast water resources, these resources are subject to extreme hydrologic events and, as a result, are not adequately managed to deal with the stress during drought conditions in the transboundary setting with no formal agreement or treaty. Rapid population growth and increases in agricultural land will require balanced water distribution to meet the array of needs. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to evaluate distribution options for flow frequencies under existing and proposed large dams in the headwaters of the KRB. The calibrated SWAT streamflow results are employed for statistical analyses of the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) and Annual Cumulative Deficit Volume (ACDV) to investigate hydrologic drought time series and identify the role of proposed dams to be used for drought mitigation. Based on the SSI, proposed dams can provide additional storage that will partially address hydrologic droughts in the future. At the same time, restrictions on agricultural land expansion and water intakes are other measures to facilitate balanced water resource availability. This study discusses the intricacies of transboundary conflict and cooperation, water rights, and drought risk management; as well, recommendations for a KRB transboundary Drought Task Force (DTF) between Afghanistan and Pakistan are provided, to develop a science-based policy for using the stored waters in large dams for drought relief, fairly and transparency.

Identification of groundwater potential zones in Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

Groundwater (GW) plays a vital role in the socio-economic growth of Kabul River Basin (KRB) in Afghanistan. Since the GW resources in the basin have not been properly managed, there is a need for sound strategies by first identifying the potential GW zones. This study assesses the potential groundwater zones for the KRB using the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In this direction, seven different thematic maps of rainfall, lithology, land use/land cover, slope, soil, drainage density, and lineament density are first prepared using the GIS. The AHP is then employed to assess the weights of different themes. Finally, the weighted overlay option in the GIS is used to generate the map of the groundwater potential zones (GWPZ). The Very Good zones are mostly located in the downstream and central parts of the KRB, covering around 1543 km2 area. The Good and the Poor zones are found to be randomly distributed, covering about 39 444 km2 and 27 658 km2, respectively. The Very Poor zones are located in the west, southwest, and in some central parts of the basin, covering about 2272 km2. It is found that only 18% of the total average annual precipitated water of 6.88 × 109 m3/year infiltrates into the subsurface and ultimately contributes to recharging of the groundwater.

Flood Risk Management with Transboundary Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics in the Kabul River Basin

The Kabul River, while having its origin in Afghanistan, has a primary tributary, the Konar River, which originates in Pakistan and enters Afghanistan near Barikot-Arandu. The Kabul River then re-enters Pakistan near Laalpur, Afghanistan making it a true transboundary river. The catastrophic flood events due to major snowmelt events in the Hindu Kush mountains occur every other year, inundating many major urban centers. This study investigates the flood risk under 30 climate and dam management scenarios to assess opportunities for transboundary water management strategy in the Kabul River Basin (KRB). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed-scale hydraulic modeling tool that was employed to forecast peak flows to characterize flood inundation areas using the river flood routing modelling tool Hydrologic Engineering Center—Analysis System -HEC-RAS for the Nowshera region. This study shows how integrated transboundary water management in the KRB can play a vital catalyst role with significant socio-economic benefits for both nations. The study proposes a KRB-specific agreement, where flood risk management is a significant driver that can bring both countries to work together under the Equitable Water Resource Utilization Doctrine to save lives in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The findings show that flood mitigation relying on collaborative efforts for both upstream and downstream riparian states is highly desirable.

Detection of Spatial Shift in Flood Regime of the Kabul River Basin in Pakistan, Causes, Challenges, and Opportunities

Recent evidence of regional climate change impacts on hydrological cycle directed us to study the floods in a high elevated and rapidly urbanized river basin, the Kabul River basin (KRB), Pakistan, which is susceptible to frequent flooding. Therefore, we analyzed the changes in flood regime at various spatial and temporal scales and their possible causes, which is accomplished by using flood indicators, trend analysis, change point analysis, and hydrological modeling. The results showed that the northern and northwestern parts of the KRB were more exposed to flood hazard than the southern parts under long-term scenario (1961/64-2015). However, after the change points, the flood risk decreased in the northern and increased in the southern regions. This spatial shift increased the vulnerability of population to the flood hazard, because the majority of population resides in the southern region. The extreme precipitation has also increased, especially the maximum one-day rainfall and maximum five-day rainfall throughout the basin. Particularly, the major cause of the decrease in different flood indicators in the northern parts of the KRB is the corresponding decrease in the annual and monsoonal rainfall and corresponding positive mass balance of glaciers in the northern region after the occurrence of change point in flood regime. However, the major cause of the increase in flood hazard on the southern part of the KRB is associated with maximum five-day rainfall. A 68% variability of annual maximum flood for the Kabul River at Nowshera and an 84% variability of annual maximum flood for Bara River at Jhansi post are explained by maximum five-day rainfall. In addition, a considerable decrease in forests (–5.21%) and increase in the urban area (88.26%) from 1992–2015 also amplifies the risk of higher flood peaks. The results of hydrological modeling suggest that the six-hourly flood peak increased by 6.85% (1992–2010) and 4.81% (2010–2015) for the extreme flood of 2010 for the Kabul River at Nowshera. The flood peak per decade will increase by 8.6%, as compared to the flood peak under the land use scenario of 2010. Therefore, consideration of proper land use planning is crucial for sustainable flood management in the KRB.

Cropland use preferences under land, water and labour constraints— implications for wheat self-sufficiency in the Kabul River basin, Afghanistan

During the past two decades, expanding irrigated land and achieving self-sufficiency in wheat production have been primary focuses of Afghan food security policies. However, the true impacts of these strategies on wheat development are still unknown due to the weak monitoring system. This study was designed to (1) map the spatial dominance of wheat (the main staple crop) and barley (an alternative to wheat) in the Kabul River basin (KRB), (2) examine the exchange of area between the two crops considering the main production constraints of land, water, and labour, and (3) project the likelihood of wheat self-sufficiency in the KRB. For the development of crop dominance maps, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) signatures were used in this study; for the crop area simulations, the dynamics of land system (DLS) model was coupled with the profit maximization model to develop different likely scenarios. The results indicated that from 2000 to 2010, the wheat area increased by 15% (41,075 ha), while the barley area decreased by 9% (-3525 ha), suggesting that improved water management in the KRB has encouraged wheat farming over barley farming. The projected scenarios (for 2030) also showed that the wheat area is likely to expand under all the scenarios, particularly under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, in which an annual increase rate of 1.5% is predicted. The economic development under labour constraints (EDL) and the environmental protection under water constraints (EPW) scenarios, on the other hand, showed the lowest increases. The analysis of the predicted wheat area and production values against population growth indicated the unlikeliness of achieving wheat self-sufficiency in the KRB.

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

Climate change and variability affect the availability and management of water resources and the hydrological cycle, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This research was conducted to analyse the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan by using the outputs of three General Circulation Models under two representative concentration pathway scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future climate data (precipitation and temperature) obtained from the climate models were bias-corrected using the delta change approach. Maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were predicted for the three future periods: 2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069), and 2080s (2070–2099) against the baseline period 1961–1980. The o o o mean annual temperature in the basin is projected to increase by 1.8 C, 3.5 C, and 4.8 C in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The projected annual precipitation is expected to decline by approximately 53 to 65% for the whole river basin under both scenarios in the future period. The well-calibrated and validated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the future streamflow in the basin. The mean annual streamflow is projected to increase by 50 to 120% in the future. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Kabul River Basin and other arid and semi-arid regions of Afghanistan.