Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

Abstract

Climate change and variability affect the availability and management of water resources and the hydrological cycle, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This research was conducted to analyse the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan by using the outputs of three General Circulation Models under two representative concentration pathway scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future climate data (precipitation and temperature) obtained from the climate models were bias-corrected using the delta change approach. Maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were predicted for the three future periods: 2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069), and 2080s (2070–2099) against the baseline period 1961–1980. The o o o mean annual temperature in the basin is projected to increase by 1.8 C, 3.5 C, and 4.8 C in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The projected annual precipitation is expected to decline by approximately 53 to 65% for the whole river basin under both scenarios in the future period. The well-calibrated and validated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the future streamflow in the basin. The mean annual streamflow is projected to increase by 50 to 120% in the future. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Kabul River Basin and other arid and semi-arid regions of Afghanistan.