The visual naturalness of a rendered character's motion is an important factor in computer graphics work, and the rendering of jumping motions is no exception to this. However, the computational mechanism that underlies the observer's judgement of the naturalness of a jumping motion has not yet been fully elucidated. We hypothesized that observers would perceive a jumping motion as more natural when the jump trajectory was consistent with the trajectory of a vertical projectile motion based on Earth's gravity. We asked human participants to evaluate the naturalness of point-light jumping motions whose height and duration were modulated. The results showed that the observers' naturalness rating varied with the modulation ratios of the jump height and duration. Interestingly, the ratings were high even when the height and duration differed from the actual jump. To explain this tendency, we constructed computational models that predicted the theoretical trajectory of a jump based on the projectile motion formula and calculated the errors between the theoretical and observed trajectories. The pattern of the errors correlated closely with the participants' ratings. Our results suggest that observers judge the naturalness of observed jumping motion based on the error between observed and predicted jump trajectories.