Joinpoint Analysis Research Articles

Trends in the disease burden of musculoskeletal disorders in Mexico from 1990-2019.

This study aimed to describe the disease burden and trends of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in Mexico from 1990 to 2019. A cross-sectional study using systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD study 2019) was performed to analyze data on MSK disorders and estimate crude and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population concerning disease prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), and years lived with disability (YLD). The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using the joinpoint regression. In 2019, there were 4.8 million (95% UI 4.3, 5.4) new cases and 3,312 (95% UI 2201, 4,790) deaths attributable to MSK disorders. In 2019, MSK disorders ranked first, increasing from 1990 (second rank) for the YLD in Mexico. Subnational variations were identified, with the state of Oaxaca having the highest age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) per 100,000 population in 2019. Joinpoint analysis revealed a significant increase in prevalence in Mexico from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC: 0.14%; 95%CI 0.09-0.19), incidence (AAPC: 0.05%; 95%CI 0.03-0.07), DALY (AAPC: 0.13%; 95%CI 0.04-0.22), and YLD (AAPC: 0.13%; 95%CI 0.02-0.24). Among the risk factors, occupational ergonomic factors and high body mass index (BMI) had the largest influence on MSK disorders. In Mexico, we observed an increase the national burden of MSK disorders from 1990 to 2019. Specific determinants, such as occupational ergonomic factors and high BMI, contribute to the MSK disorder burden. The burden of MSK disorders requires an improved and prompt assessment to plan valuable diagnostic and management approaches. Key Points • In Mexico, the burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders increased from 1990 to 2019. • Specific risk factors, such as occupational ergonomic factors and high body mass index, contribute to the MSK disorder burden.

Myelodysplastic syndromes mortality in Spain: a comprehensive age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis.

The present study aims to assess the mortality trends in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in Spain from 1980 to 2021. Deaths and mid-year population data were collected from the National Institute of Statistics. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person-years for all ages and ages 35-64. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in mortality trends. The independent effects of age, period and birth cohort on MDS mortality were also examined. MDS-related deaths gradually increased from 36 in 1980 to 1118 in 2021, with an overall increase of 6.6% in age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for both men and women. Joinpoint analysis identified four periods for both men and women: 1980-1987 (stable rates), 1987-1990 (sharp increase), 1990-1999 (slower increase) and 1999-2021 (stable rates). ASMRs (35-64years) increased by 2.5% over the study period, with a turning point identified in 1996 when rates decreased. Mortality from MDS increases with age and is higher in men. The cohort's relative risk increased until the mid-1950s and then stabilised, whilst the period relative risk increased between 1982 and 1996 and then stabilised. The results of this study indicate a progressive increase in MDS-related deaths in Spain between 1980 and 2021. Notably, this increase was more pronounced in men than in women. Analysis of birth cohort trends revealed shifts in MDS risk, characterised by an increase until the mid-twentieth century, followed by a stabilisation. Using joinpoint analysis, four distinct periods were identified, shedding light on the changing patterns of mortality over time. These findings help to shape future research directions and inform public health strategies. They also provide optimism for advances in MDS treatment and potential reductions in mortality.

Secular trend of mortality and incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in global ,1990–2019: an age period cohort analysis and joinpoint analysis

BackgroundRheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a major public health problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of comprehensive and up-to-date information regarding the burden of RA and its dynamic trends in subsequent years. To examine the changing trends in the global burden of RA and forecast for 2044, which will facilitate the development of strategies tailored to RA burden and provide reference for the development of effective treatment guidelines.MethodsFollowing the general analytical strategy used the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, which included 204 countries, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability adjusted of life year (DALY) rate for RA were analyzed.ResultsThe ASIR, ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate for RA in 2019 were 13.001/100,000 (95% UI, 11.833 ~ 14.274), 0.574/100,000 (95% UI, 0.356 ~ 0.793) and 39.565/100,000 (95% UI, 49.529 ~ 30.508), respectively. America had the highest ASIR [18.578(95% UI, 17.147 ~ 20.148)] and age-standardized DALY rate [53.676(95% UI, 40.106 ~ 67.968)] in 2019. Asia had the highest ASMR [0.681(95% UI, 0.802 ~ 0.480)] in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, a significant average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the ASIR was observed in both males [0.237% (95% CI, 0.216 ~ 0.259%)] and females [0.197% (95% CI, 0.141 ~ 0.254%)], AAPC in the ASMR was observed in both males [-0.398% (95% CI, -0.605~-0.191%)] and females [-0.295% (95% CI, -0.424~-0.65%)]. Age effects indicated that the relative risk (RR) of RA-associated incidence and mortality rates increased with age among males and females. The RR of RA increased over time and started to gradually increase from 1990. Cohort effects showed decreases in incidence, mortality and DALY rates in successive birth cohorts. The global incidence of RA would continue to increase in the future, while mortality would continue to decrease.ConclusionThe increased risk of RA is dominantly influenced by age effects and period effects and the ethnic area. The results suggest that early identification and treatment of RA is important for reducing the ongoing burden with age, and targeted health education and specific intervention programs should be promoted to control middle-elderly population.

Site-specific trends in gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms in Bavaria, Germany.

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NEN) are rare and heterogeneous epithelial tumors, occurring throughout the body. For gastroenteropancreatic (GEP)-NEN, rising incidence rates were reported for the last decades, with underlying causes remaining largely unexplained. We evaluated NEN trends stratifying by their histologic subtypes. Incident cases of GEP-NEN diagnosed between 2005 and 2019 were retrieved from the prospective, population-based Bavarian Cancer Registry. GEP-NEN were divided in their histologic subtypes, that is, neuroendocrine tumors (NET) G1, NET G2/G3, other NET versus small-cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC), large-cell NEC, and other NEC. We calculated annual age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100,000 persons for the total of GEP-NEN, NEN histologic subtypes, and tumor sites. We used an annual percentage change (APC) approach including a joinpoint analysis to investigate NEN incidence trends. ASIR of GEP-NEN rose from 2.2 in 2005 to 4.8 in 2019, characterized by a significant increase until 2012 (APC 2005-2012: 10.1%), followed by modest rise (APC 2012-2019: 1.5%). In the last decade, this increase was mainly driven by the rise of NET G1 and G2/G3, while incidence for NEC declined. Over the study period, ASIR increased significantly for all GEP-sites except the colon. APCs were largest for the stomach, the appendix, the pancreas, and the rectum. This study found a significant increase in the incidence of GEP-NET. Though this development may partially be attributable to the increased use of advanced detection techniques and changes in NEN classification, further research should also focus on the identification of NEN risk factors.

Prevalence and secular trends of four causes of blindness and visual impairment in Iran (1990-2019): a comparative study based on the Global Burden of Disease project's data.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of cataracts, refractive disorders, age-related macular disease (AMD), and glaucoma, as well as their trends from 1990 to 2019 in Iran, in comparison with high-middle socio-demographic index (HMSDI) countries and the world, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The GBD study provided data on the prevalence of blindness and visual impairment (VI), as well as four of their causes including cataracts, refractive disorders, age-related macular disease (AMD), and glaucoma. Using Joinpoint analysis, the annual percent change (APC) was calculated to assess the trend of change in prevalence in each category of diseases from 1990 to 2019, stratified by sex and age, for Iran, HMSDI countries, and the world. In 2019, refractive errors and cataracts were the most common causes of blindness and VI for both genders in Iran, HMSDI countries and the world. Iran had a higher age-standardized prevalence in all four categories of ophthalmologic disorders compared to HMSDI countries and the world for both genders in 2019. Additionally, the age-specific prevalence of all four disorders in 2019 was higher in Iran compared to HMSDI countries. However, in terms of trends of prevalence from 1990 to 2019, the rate of reduction for the four ophthalmologic disorders in Iran was higher than in HMSDI and the world for both males and females. Furthermore, Iran had a greater percentage of reduction in prevalence for all age groups in all four disorders compared to HMSDI countries. The prevalence of cataracts, refractive errors, AMD, and glaucoma in Iran was higher compared to HMSDI countries in 2019 for both sexes and all age groups, but the trends of prevalence for all four disorders from 1990 to 2019 in Iran had a higher slope of reduction compared to HMSDI countries for all ages and sexes.

Changes in cancer-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Few studies have examined cancer-related mortality overall, never mind select cancer types, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on cancer-related mortality (any mention in death certificates, multiple causes of death approach) was extracted from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER database. Changes in trends for age-standardized mortality rates through 1999-2021 were assessed by Joinpoint analysis. In total, 1 379 643 cancer-related deaths were registered in 2020-2021, with cancer selected as the underlying cause in 88%. After 2 decades of decline, age-standardized cancer-related mortality increased from 2019 to 2021 for all cancers (annual percentage change = 1.6%, 95% confidence interval = 0.6% to 2.6%), especially for prostate cancer (annual percentage change = 5.1%, 95% confidence interval = 2.2% to 8.2%) and hematologic cancers (annual percentage change = 4.8%, 95% confidence interval = 3.1% to 6.6%). Sharp peaks in cancer-related deaths for many cancer sites were observed during pandemic waves in both 2020 and 2021, mostly attributed to COVID-19 as the underlying cause. Multiple causes of death analyses are warranted to fully assess the impact of the pandemic on cancer-related mortality.

Global, regional, and national burden of liver cancer due to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, 1990-2019: a decomposition and age-period-cohort analysis.

Identifying past temporal trends in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-associated liver cancer (NALC) can increase public awareness of the disease and facilitate future policy development. Annual deaths and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for NALC from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The long-term trend and the critical inflection of mortality of NALC were detected by Joinpoint analysis. Age-period-cohort analysis was employed to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Last, decomposition analysis was used to reveal the aging and population growth effects for NALC burden. Between 1990 and 2019, the ASDR of NALC witnessed an overall declining trend on a global scale, with a decrease in females and a stable trend in males. However, the global ASDR demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2010 to 2019. Southern sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia have the highest NALC burdens, while high socio-demographic index (SDI) region experienced the fastest escalation of NALC burdens over 30 years. The decomposition analysis revealed that population growth and aging were the primary catalysts behind the increase in global NALC deaths. Age-period-cohort analyses showed that NALC mortality declined the fastest among females aged 40-45 years in high SDI region, accompanied by a deteriorating period effect trend during the period of 2010-2019. The global absolute deaths and ASDR of NALC have witnessed a rise in the past decade, with populations exhibiting considerable disparities based on sex, age, and region. Population growth, aging, and metabolism-related factors were the main factors behind the increase in global NALC deaths.

Burden of AML, 1990-2019: Estimates From the Global Burden of Disease Study

PURPOSE AML accounts for 80% of acute leukemia in adults. While progress has been made in treating younger patients in the past 2 decades, there has been limited improvement for older patients until recently. This study examines the global and European Union (EU) 15+ trends in AML between 1990 and 2019. METHODS We extracted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized death rates (ASMRs), and disability-adjusted life years, stratified by sex from the Global Burden of Disease Study database, and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) were computed. Trends were compared using Joinpoint regression. RESULTS The findings show a global increase in AML incidence for both sexes from 1990 to 2019. In the EU15+ countries, most countries exhibited an increase in ASIR for both sexes. Joinpoint revealed that globally for male patients, ASIR steadily increased until 2010, remained stable until 2015 followed by a decline till 2019. Similar trends were observed in female patients. For ASMR, although there was an increase globally and in most EU15+ countries, there was a statistically significant decrease in mortality rates globally and in the majority of EU15+ countries in recent years. MIR improved in both sexes globally. On age stratification, AML burden was highest among older groups (55 years and older), while the lowest rates were observed in younger than 20 years. CONCLUSION The findings from our study indicate a global rise in AML incidence and mortality in both sexes and decrease in MIR from 1990 to 2019 suggesting a better survival. However, on Joinpoint analysis, there is no change in MIR in women in the past decade and past 4 years in men indicating plateau in survival trends despite recent advances.

Trends of nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis in the United States.

To describe national annual rates of nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis (nPEP) in the United States. Retrospective cohort study of commercially insured individuals in the Merative MarketScan Database from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2019. Patients at least 13 years old prescribed nPEP per recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines were identified using pharmacy claims. Rates of use were described overall and stratified by sex, age group, and region. These rates were qualitatively compared to the diagnosis rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) observed in the data. Joinpoint analysis identified inflection points of nPEP use. Eleven thousand, three hundred and ninety-seven nPEP users were identified, with a mean age of 33.7 years. Most were males (64.6%) and lived in the south (33.2%) and northeast (32.4%). The rate of nPEP use increased 515%, from 1.42 nPEP users per 100 000 enrollees in 2010 to 8.71 nPEP users per 10 000 enrollees in 2019. The comparative nPEP use rates among subgroups largely mirrored their HIV diagnosis rates, that is, subgroups with a higher HIV rate had higher nPEP use. In the Joinpoint analysis significant growth was observed from 2012 to 2015 [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC): 45.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 29.4 - 64.3] followed by a more moderate increase from 2015 to 2019 (EAPC 16.0%; 95% CI: 12.6-19.6). nPEP use increased from 2010 to 2019, but not equally across all risk groups. Further policy interventions should be developed to reduce barriers and ensure adequate access to this important HIV prevention tool.

Ongoing Increase in Incidence of Diabetes in Austrian Children and Adolescents (1989–2021): Results from a Nationwide Registry

Introduction. Since there is no uniform global diabetes trend in childhood and adolescence, regional epidemiological surveys of diabetes incidences are important. In Austria, the incidences of type 1 diabetes (T1D), type 2 diabetes (T2D), and other forms of diabetes have been recorded for decades. Methods. To analyze recent developments of diabetes incidence within the decades long-standing Austrian nationwide prospective population-based incidence study for diabetes in children aged <15 years. We estimated time trends of age-standardized rates from 1989 to 2021 for T1D and T2D by joinpoint analysis. Annual percent changes (APCs) were calculated. Case ascertainment was 97%. Results. We observed an unusual increase of T1D incidence in the year 2021, reaching a peak of 28.7/100,000/PY (person years). From 2011 to 2020, there had been a constant plateau phase in the total cohort (APC 0.78, 95% CI [−0.99, 2.58], p = 0.379 ), which had followed a steep increase of T1D incidence (APC 4.6, 95% CI [3.94, 5.19], p < 0.001 ) from 1989 to 2011. Age-specific differences in T1D incidence development were observed. For the first time, we observed a statistically significant constant increase in T2D during the observation period (APC 3.47, 95% CI [0.76, 6.26], p = 0.014 ). Other forms of diabetes are two times more common than T2D in this age group. Conclusion. The incidence of T1D in Austrian children <15 years is still increasing and showed a peak in 2021. For the first time, a significant increase in pediatric T2D was observed in Austria.

Disparities in testicular cancer incidence, mortality, and place of death trends from 1999 to 2020: A comprehensive cohort study.

Testicular cancer (TC) mortality rates have decreased over time, however it is unclear whether these improvements are consistent across all communities. The aim of this study was to analyze trends in TC incidence, mortality, and place of death (PoD) in the United States between 1999-2020 and identify disparities across race, ethnicity, and geographic location. This cross-sectional study used CDC WONDER and NAACCR, to calculate age-adjusted rates of TC incidence and mortality, respectively. PoD data for individuals who died of TC were collected from CDC WONDER. Using Joinpoint analysis, longitudinal mortality trends were evaluated by age, race, ethnicity, US census region, and urbanization category. TC stage (localized vs metastatic) trends were also evaluated. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis identified demographic disparities for PoD. A total of 8,456 patients died of TC from 1999-2020. Average annual percent change (AAPC) of testicular cancer-specific mortality (TCSM) remained largely stable (AAPC, 0.4; 95% CI -0.2 to 0.9; p = 0.215). Men ages 25-29 experienced a significant increase in TCSM (AAPC, 1.3, p = 0.003), consistent with increased metastatic testicular cancer-specific incidence (TCSI) trend for this age group (AAPC, 1.6; p < 0.01). Mortality increased for Hispanic men (AAPC, 1.7, p < 0.001), with increased metastatic TCSI (AAPC, 2.5; p < 0.001). Finally, younger (<45), single, and Hispanic or Black men were more likely to die in medical facilities (all p < 0.001). The retrospective study design is a limitation. Significant increases in metastatic TC were found for Hispanic men and men aged 25-29 potentially driving increasing testicular cancer specific mortality in these groups. Evidence of racial and ethnic differences in place of death may also highlight treatment disparities.

Prioritizing non-communicable diseases in the post-pandemic era based on a comprehensive analysis of the GBD 2019 from 1990 to 2019

This study aimed to assess the burden of communicable diseases (CDs) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2019, and propose global strategies to transform the public health policy. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, we analyzed CDs and NCDs across various factors such as sex, age, year, and location, and evaluate the temporal trends of these diseases with joinpoint analysis. We also examined the differences between regions based on their socio-demographic index (SDI). In 2019, there were 7,862,907 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7,183,475 to 8,654,104) deaths from CDs and 42,034,124 (40,081,323 to 43,942,475) deaths from NCDs recorded worldwide. The low SDI region had markedly high age-standardized death and DALY rates of CDs. Although the age-standardized incidence rate of CDs has decreased in about half of the regions since 1990, NCDs have been on the rise in most regions. Over the past 30 years, the global burden of CDs has decreased significantly, while the burden of NCDs has aggrandized to an extent. In the post-pandemic era, effective interventions and cooperation among countries should be promoted to allocate medical resources more reasonably and improve healthcare for NCD patients.

Self-harm in 5-to-24 year olds: Retrospective examination of hospital presentations to emergency departments in New South Wales, Australia, 2012 to 2020.

There is some evidence that self-harm presentations in children and young people have increased over the past decade, yet there are few up-to-date studies examining these trends. This study aims to describe trends in the rates and severity of emergency department self-harm presentations for youth aged 5-24 years in New South Wales, Australia between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2020. We analysed self-harm hospital presentations using join point analysis to compare quarterly growth in rates and urgency of presentation since 2012 by age group and sex. Binomial logistic modelling was used to identify risks for re-presentation for self-harm, including age group, sex, country of birth, mode of arrival, inpatient status, triage category, rurality, and socio-economic disadvantage. In total, 83,111 self-harm presentations for 51,181 persons were analysed. Overall rates of self-harm among those aged 5-24 years increased by 2.4% (p < .001) per quarter in females and 1.6% (p < .001) per quarter in males, with statistically significant average quarterly increases observed across all age groups. Overall and age-specific self-harm triage urgency rates increased statistically significantly for potentially serious, and potentially- and immediately life-threatening categories. A higher likelihood of re-presentation to any emergency department for self-harm was associated with younger age, female, residing in a regional area, arriving by ambulance, admitted as an in-patient, and a more severe index self-harm presentation. Hospital self-harm presentations have been growing steadily over the past decade, with the greatest growth in the youngest people. Understanding the reasons for these sustained upward trends is a priority for suicide prevention.

Characterization of Google Search Volumes and Trends From 2004 to 2021 for Diagnosis and Treatment of Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer.

Introduction and objective The purpose of this study is to better characterize at which point during the course of diagnosis and treatment of locally advanced prostate cancer the internet is utilized and to evaluate the search trends over time. Methods Monthly Google Trends data were collected from 2004 to 2021 for prostate cancer-specific terms.Temporal trends were analyzed by comparing average search volume indexes (aSVI) and analysis with joinpoint software of six-month percent change (6mPC).Chloropleths were created for geographic pattern comparisons. Results Search terms associated with interventions demonstrated the highest aSVI with terms such as "prostate biopsy" (aSVI: 33.59), "prostatectomy" (aSVI: 31.6), and "prostate radiation" (aSVI: 16.45). Terms associated with treatment side effects increased at a high rate with "radiation side effects" (21.4 6mPC, p<0.05) and "prostatectomy side effects" (14.4 6mPC, p<0.05). Prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-related search terms demonstrated a strong positive trend on joinpoint analysis with search terms "What is PSA?" (8.9 6mPC, p<0.05), and "What is normal PSA?" (15.1, p<0.05).Geographic patterns demonstrated higher search volumes in regard to screening and diagnostic terms in the northeast, while the southern regions demonstrated relatively higher search volumes for treatment and interventions. Conclusions The internet continues to be a growing part of the dynamics of prostate cancer management with more men utilizing the internet each year to help understand their diagnosis. Specifically, we found that the internet is used more for searches pertaining to PSA, procedures, and interventions affecting the quality of life.

Trends in hepatocellular carcinoma stage by racial/ethnic group in the United States, 1992–2019

Background & AimsAlthough incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) began to decline in the United States in the past decade, disparities in rates among racial/ethnic groups have persisted. Whether disparities in stage at diagnosis have remained over time, however, is unclear. MethodsNational Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program has created a new staging-over-time variable that facilitates the examination of trends in HCC stage. Thus, the proportions of HCCs diagnosed by stage between 1992 and 2019 were examined among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) individuals. HCC incidence between 1992 and 2019 was also analysed using Joinpoint regression. ResultsBetween 1992 and 2019, the proportion of stage 1 HCCs increased and the proportion of stage 4 HCCs decreased among non-Hispanic White, NHB, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander individuals. Among AI/AN persons, the proportion of stage 1 tumours remained stable, and the proportion of stage 4 tumours declined. In the most recent time period, NHB individuals had the lowest proportions of stage 1 HCCs (32%) and the highest proportion of stage 4 HCCs (20%) of any group. Joinpoint analysis found that HCC incidence began to decline by 2013 among all groups except AI/AN individuals, the only group that had an increase in incidence. ConclusionsDespite generally favourable trends in HCC stage and incidence rates, disparities remain. NHB persons continue to have less favourable stages at diagnosis, and incidence rates continue to increase among AI/AN persons. Impact and implicationsHCC incidence rates among most United States racial/ethnic groups began to decline in recent years, but whether stage at diagnosis also improved was unclear. As a result, a new SEER stage variable was used to examine stage trends by race/ethnicity. Although the finding of generally favourable trends in stage as well as incidence is encouraging, continuity disparities in both stage and incidence require serious attention.

Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2017: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis.

To provide a comprehensive overview of epidemiological features and temporal trends of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017. Data on pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai were obtained through the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the Vital Statistics System. Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent changes (APCs) and age-period-cohort analysis were used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on pancreatic cancer. There were a total of 29,253 cases and 27,105 deaths of pancreatic cancer in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period. The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 5.45/100,000 and 5.02/100,000, respectively. Both the incidence and mortality rates demonstrated fluctuating upward trends, with an average annual increase rate of 1.51% (APC = 1.51, P < 0.001) and 1.04% (APC = 1.04, P < 0.001), respectively. The upward trend in incidence was greater for females than for males, while the trend in mortality was seen in both sexes equally and continuously. In recent years (2013-2017), the age-specific incidence rates increased further than before, with statistically significant changes in the 35-year, 45- to 55-year and 70- to 85-year age groups (P < 0.05). The age-specific mortality rates also showed obvious upward trends, which in the 50- to 55-year, and 75- to 85-year age groups increased significantly. The results of the age-period-cohort analysis suggested significant effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence of pancreatic cancer. The prevalence of pancreatic cancer, dramatically influenced by socioeconomic development and lifestyles, demonstrated a significant upward trend from 1973 to 2017 in urban Shanghai and underscored the necessity and urgency for additional efforts in primary and secondary prevention measures.

The case for individualised public health interventions: Smoking prevalence and inequalities in Northern Ireland 1985-2015

BackgroundWhile smoking prevalence in high income countries has declined over time, socioeconomic inequalities in smoking have widened. This study is one of the few studies to examine the longitudinal pattern of income-related smoking inequalities and only the second using concentration indices in its analysis. MethodIncome-related smoking inequalities were measured using concentration indices using the Northern Ireland Continuous Household Survey data. Smoking inequalities were compared quantitatively and visually across three periods: 1985–1995, 1997–2005 and 2007–2015. Joinpoint analysis was used to measure the overall time trend of smoking inequalities. Subgroup analysis was used to examine the nature of change in smoking inequalities across population sub-groups. FindingsThroughout 1985–2015, smoking was more concentrated among the poor (standard concentration index of-0·131, p < 0·001). While prevalence declined sharply across population, income-related inequalities increased sharply in general and within subgroups. Income-related smoking inequalities were significantly larger among high educated group and those who were employed. No structural break was observed with respect to the adoption of any specific policy measures over the period. ConclusionCurrent approaches to tobacco control may be ill-suited to addressing smoking inequalities and may indeed be counterproductive. More tailored approaches that address the specific needs of population sub-groups or more draconian approaches such as extensions to prohibition may be required to reduce prevalence further while avoiding a widening of inequalities.

Revisiting recent trends in stroke death rates, United States, 1999–2020

BackgroundPrior studies have reported a reversal or stalling of stroke mortality trends in the United States, but the literature has not been updated using recent data. A comprehensive examination of contemporary trends is crucial to informing public health intervention efforts, setting health priorities, and allocating limited health resources. This study assessed the temporal trends in stroke death rates in the United States from 1999 through 2020. MethodsWe used national mortality data from the Underlying Cause of Death files in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). Stroke decedents were identified using the International Classification of Diseases Codes, 10th Revision- I60-I69. Crude/age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were abstracted overall and by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and US census region. Joinpoint analysis and five-year simple moving averages assessed mortality trends from 1999 through 2020. Results were expressed as annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and 95% confidence interval (CI). ResultsStroke mortality trends declined from 1999 to 2012 but increased by 0.5% annually from 2012 through 2020. Rates increased by 1.3% per year among Non-Hispanic Blacks from 2012 to 2020, 1.7% per year among Hispanics from 2012 to 2020, and stalled among Non-Hispanic Whites (2012−2020), Asians/Pacific Islanders (2014–2020), and American Indians/Alaska Natives (2013−2020). Recent rates have stalled among females from 2012 to 2020 and increased among males at an annual rate of 0.7% during the same period. Based on age, trends have stabilized among older adults since 2012 and grew at an annual rate of 7.1% among persons <35 years and 5.2% among persons 35 to 64 years since 2018. Declining trends were sustained in the Northeastern region only, with rates stalling in the Midwest and increasing in the South and West. ConclusionsThe decline in US stroke mortality trends recorded during previous decades has not been sustained in recent years. While the reasons are unclear, findings might be attributed to changes in stroke risk factors in the US population. Further research should identify social, regional, and behavioral drivers to guide medical and public health intervention efforts.

Estimates of bladder cancer burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: Findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) has been listed as one of the risk factors for bladder cancer. We here estimated the global, regional, and national levels of bladder cancer burden attributable to high FPG from 1990 to 2019. Bladder cancer data attributable to high FPG were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and analyzed by age, sex, year, and location. Age-standardized rates were utilized to evaluate the burden between different populations. The temporal trend of the burden was estimated through the Joinpoint analysis. In 2019, high FPG contributed to 22,823.33 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 4694.88-48,962.26) deaths and 399,654.91 (95% UI, 81,609.35-865,890.95) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of bladder cancer globally. Since 1990, the global age-standardized death and DALY rates of bladder cancer attributable to high FPG increased apparently by 39.18% and 41.48%, respectively. During the last 30 years, high FPG-related age-standardized death and DALY rates of bladder cancer have increased in all countries. In 2019, Central Europe showed the greatest high FPG-related age-standardized death and DALY rates of bladder cancer, but Andean Latin America had the lowest rates. Nationally, Lebanon showed the greatest high FPG-related age-standardized death and DALY rates of bladder cancer in 2019. High FPG-attributable deaths and DALYs of bladder cancer were more considerable among males and older people. Countries with high SDI showed higher levels of age-standardized death and DALY rates of bladder cancer due to high FPG and presented remarkable upward trends in rates in the last 30 years. Globally, the high FPG-associated bladder cancer burden has remarkably increased in all countries, and showed a higher level among countries with higher SDI. Monitoring FPG levels among patients with bladder cancer is critical to lower the corresponding burden.

Changing Epidemiological Patterns of Infection and Mortality Due to Hepatitis C Virus in Poland.

Limited information is available on trends in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, particularly in Central Europe. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed HCV epidemiology in Poland, considering socio-demographic characteristics, changing patterns over time, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined HCV cases (diagnosis and deaths) reported by national registries and used joinpoint analysis to estimate time trajectories. Between 2009 and 2021, there were changes in the trends of HCV, shifting from positive to negative in Poland. Among men, there was a significant increase initially in diagnosis rate of HCV in rural areas (annual percent change, APC2009-2016 +11.50%) and urban areas (APC2009-2016 +11.44%) by 2016. In subsequent years until 2019, the trend changed direction, but the reduction was weak (Ptrend > 0.05) in rural areas (-8.66%) and urban areas (-13.63%). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the diagnosis rate of HCV dramatically decreased in rural areas (APC2019-2021 -41.47%) and urban areas (APC2019-2021 -40.88%). Among women, changes in the diagnosis rate of HCV were less pronounced. In rural areas, there was a significant increase (APC2009-2015 +20.53%) followed by no significant change, whereas changes occurred later in urban areas (APC2017-2021 -33.58%). Trend changes in total mortality due to HCV were mainly among men, with a significant decrease in rural (-17.17%) and urban (-21.55%) areas from 2014/2015. The COVID-19 pandemic reduced HCV diagnosis rates in Poland, especially for diagnosed cases. However, further monitoring of HCV trends is necessary, along with national screening programs and improved linkage to care.