Changing Epidemiological Patterns of Infection and Mortality Due to Hepatitis C Virus in Poland.

Abstract

Limited information is available on trends in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, particularly in Central Europe. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed HCV epidemiology in Poland, considering socio-demographic characteristics, changing patterns over time, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined HCV cases (diagnosis and deaths) reported by national registries and used joinpoint analysis to estimate time trajectories. Between 2009 and 2021, there were changes in the trends of HCV, shifting from positive to negative in Poland. Among men, there was a significant increase initially in diagnosis rate of HCV in rural areas (annual percent change, APC2009-2016 +11.50%) and urban areas (APC2009-2016 +11.44%) by 2016. In subsequent years until 2019, the trend changed direction, but the reduction was weak (Ptrend > 0.05) in rural areas (-8.66%) and urban areas (-13.63%). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the diagnosis rate of HCV dramatically decreased in rural areas (APC2019-2021 -41.47%) and urban areas (APC2019-2021 -40.88%). Among women, changes in the diagnosis rate of HCV were less pronounced. In rural areas, there was a significant increase (APC2009-2015 +20.53%) followed by no significant change, whereas changes occurred later in urban areas (APC2017-2021 -33.58%). Trend changes in total mortality due to HCV were mainly among men, with a significant decrease in rural (-17.17%) and urban (-21.55%) areas from 2014/2015. The COVID-19 pandemic reduced HCV diagnosis rates in Poland, especially for diagnosed cases. However, further monitoring of HCV trends is necessary, along with national screening programs and improved linkage to care.