Isotope-enabled Climate Research Articles

Seasonal reconstructions coupling ice core data and an isotope-enabled climate model – methodological implications of seasonality, climate modes and selection of proxy data

Abstract. The research area of climate field reconstructions has developed strongly during the past 20 years, motivated by the need to understand the complex dynamics of the earth system in a changing climate. Climate field reconstructions aim to build a consistent gridded climate reconstruction of different variables, often from a range of climate proxies, using either statistical tools or a climate model to fill the gaps between the locations of the proxy data. Commonly, large-scale climate field reconstructions covering more than 500 years are of annual resolution. In this method study, we investigate the potential of seasonally resolved climate field reconstructions based on oxygen isotope records from Greenland ice cores and an isotope-enabled climate model. Our analogue-type method matches modeled isotope patterns in Greenland precipitation to the patterns of ice core data from up to 14 ice core sites. In a second step, the climate variables of the best-matching model years are extracted, with the mean of the best-matching years comprising the reconstruction. We test a range of climate reconstructions, varying the definition of the seasons and the number of ice cores used. Our findings show that the optimal definition of the seasons depends on the variability in the target season. For winter, the vigorous variability is best captured when defining the season as December–February due to the dominance of large-scale patterns. For summer, which has weaker variability, albeit more persistent in time, the variability is better captured using a longer season of May–October. Motivated by the scarcity of seasonal data, we also test the use of annual data where the year is divided during summer, that is, not following the calendar year. This means that the winter variability is not split and that the annual data then can be used to reconstruct the winter variability. In particularly when reconstructing the sea level pressure and the corresponding main modes of variability, it is important to take seasonality into account, because of changes in the spatial patterns of the modes throughout the year. Targeting the annual mean sea level pressure for the reconstruction lowers the skill simply due to the seasonal geographical shift of the circulation modes. Our reconstructions based on ice core data also show skill for the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, in particularly during winter for latitudes higher than 50∘ N. In addition, the main modes of the sea surface temperature variability are qualitatively captured by the reconstructions. When testing the skill of the reconstructions using 19 ice cores compared to the ones using eight ice cores, we do not find a clear advantage of using a larger data set. This could be due to a more even spatial distribution of the eight ice cores. However, including European tree-ring data to further constrain the summer temperature reconstruction clearly improves the skill for this season, which otherwise is more difficult to capture than the winter season.

Glacial cooling and climate sensitivity revisited.

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), one of the best studied palaeoclimatic intervals, offers an excellent opportunity to investigate how the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse gases and the cryosphere. Previous work has sought to constrain the magnitude and pattern of glacial cooling from palaeothermometers1,2, but the uneven distribution of the proxies, as well as their uncertainties, has challenged the construction of a full-field view of the LGM climate state. Here we combine a large collection of geochemical proxies for sea surface temperature with an isotope-enabled climate model ensemble to produce a field reconstruction of LGM temperatures using data assimilation. The reconstruction is validated with withheld proxies as well as independent ice core and speleothem δ18O measurements. Our assimilated product provides a constraint on global mean LGM cooling of -6.1 degrees Celsius (95 per cent confidence interval: -6.5 to -5.7 degrees Celsius). Given assumptions concerning the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases, ice sheets and mineral dust aerosols, this cooling translates to an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.4 degrees Celsius (2.4-4.5 degrees Celsius), a value that is higher than previous LGM-based estimates but consistent with the traditional consensus range of 2-4.5 degrees Celsius3,4.

The spectrum of Asian Monsoon variability: A proxy system model approach to the hydroclimate scaling mismatch

Recent studies have found a significant mismatch between the amount of low-frequency variability in paleo-hydroclimate records and that simulated by climate models. However, uncertainties in how proxy systems record climate are significant, and the influence of low-frequency non-climate noise in paleoclimate archives is difficult to constrain. We use proxy system models to compare a network of mostly δ18O tree cellulose records from Monsoon Asia with isotope-enabled climate model output from (1) a coupled fully-forced version of iCESM (850–2005 CE), (2) isoGSM nudged toward the 20th Century Reanalysis (1871–2010 CE), and (3) an atmosphere-only run of iCAM5 with prescribed sea-surface temperatures from observations (1850–2014 CE). We identify a large discrepancy in scaling behavior between hydroclimate proxies and analogous iCESM pseudoproxies. In contrast, pseudoproxy networks based on climate models constrained by observations (isoGSM and iCAM5) have variance that continues to increase from decadal to multidecadal scales. This indicates that the mismatch arises from a failure of iCESM to simulate a sufficient amount of low-frequency hydroclimate variability. We test the influence of non-climate noise and photosynthate storage and find that they play a small role in elevating the low-frequency signal of proxies, but cannot explain the mismatch. Although our results are constrained to Monsoon Asia, the scaling of hydroclimate proxies across other regions and models have shown similar behavior, suggesting a proxy-model mismatch on a global scale that likely stems from an underestimation of low-frequency variability in fully coupled climate models.

Resolving seasonal rainfall changes in the Middle East during the last interglacial period

Paleorainfall proxy records from the Middle East have revealed remarkable patterns of variability since the penultimate glacial period (140 ka), but the seasonality of this signal has been unresolvable. Here, seasonal-resolution oxygen isotope data from Soreq Cave speleothems suggest that summer monsoon rainfall periodically reaches as far north as Israel-well removed from the modern monsoon-at times (∼125, 105 ka) that overlap with evidence for some of the earliest modern human migrations out of Africa. These seasonal proxy data are corroborated by seasonal-resolution model output of the amount and oxygen-isotope ratio of rainfall from an isotope-enabled climate model. In contrast to the modern regional climate where rainfall is delivered predominantly in winter months along westerly storm tracks, the model suggests that during extreme peaks of summer insolation-as occurs during the last interglacial (e.g., 125, 105 ka)-regional rainfall increases due to both wetter winters and the incursion of summer monsoons. This interpretation brings clarity to regional paleoproxy records and provides important environmental context along one potential pathway of early modern human migration.

Comment on "Revised paleoaltimetry data show low Tibetan Plateau elevation during the Eocene".

Botsyun et al (Research Articles, 1 March 2019, eaaq1436) have suggested that the Tibetan Plateau was low (substantially less than 3000 meters) during the Eocene, based on a comparison of oxygen isotope proxy data with isotope-enabled climate model simulations. However, we contend that their conclusions are flawed as the result of a number of failings of both the modeling and the data comparison.

SISAL: Bringing Added Value to Speleothem Research

Isotopic records from speleothems are an important source of information about past climates and, given the increase in the number of isotope-enabled climate models, are likely to become an important tool for climate model evaluation. SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis) have created a global database of isotopic records from speleothems in order to facilitate regional analyses and data-model comparison. The papers in this Special Issue showcase the use of the database for regional analyses. In this paper, we discuss some of the important issues underpinning the use of speleothems and how the existence of this database assists palaeoclimate research. We also highlight some of the lessons learned in the creation of the SISAL database and outline potential research going forward.

Precipitation <i>δ</i><sup>18</sup>O on the Himalaya–Tibet orogeny and its relationship to surface elevation

Abstract. The elevation history of the Himalaya–Tibet orogen is central to understanding the evolution and dynamics of both the India–Asia collision and the Asian monsoons. The surface elevation history of the region is largely deduced from stable isotope (δ18O, δD) paleoaltimetry. This method is based on the observed relationship between the isotopic composition of meteoric waters (δ18Op, δDp) and surface elevation, and the assumption that precipitation undergoes Rayleigh distillation under forced ascent. Here we evaluate how elevation-induced climate change influences the δ18Op–elevation relationship and whether Rayleigh distillation is the dominant process affecting δ18Op. We use an isotope-enabled climate model, ECHAM-wiso, to show that the Rayleigh distillation process is only dominant in the monsoonal regions of the Himalayas when the mountains are high. When the orogen is lowered, local surface recycling and convective processes become important, as forced ascent is weakened due to weaker Asian monsoons. As a result, the δ18Op lapse rate in the Himalayas increases from around −3 to above −0.1 ‰ km−1, and has little relationship with elevation. On the Tibetan Plateau, the meridional gradient of δ18O decreases from ∼1 to ∼0.3 ‰ ∘−1 with reduced elevation, primarily due to enhanced sub-cloud reevaporation under lower relative humidity. Overall, we report that using δ18Op or δDp to deduce surface elevation change in the Himalayan–Tibetan region has severe limitations and demonstrate that the processes that control annual-mean precipitation-weighted δ18Op vary by region and with surface elevation. In summary, we determine that the application of δ18O paleoaltimetry is only appropriate for 7 of the 50 sites from which δ18O records have been used to infer past elevations.

Solar and volcanic forcing of North Atlantic climate inferred from a process-based reconstruction

Abstract. The effect of external forcings on atmospheric circulation is debated. Due to the short observational period, the analysis of the role of external forcings is hampered, making it difficult to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation to external forcings, as well as persistence of the effects. In observations, the average response to tropical volcanic eruptions is a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the following winter. However, past major tropical eruptions exceeding the magnitude of eruptions during the instrumental era could have had more lasting effects. Decadal NAO variability has been suggested to follow the 11-year solar cycle, and linkages have been made between grand solar minima and negative NAO. However, the solar link to NAO found by modeling studies is not unequivocally supported by reconstructions, and is not consistently present in observations for the 20th century. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric winter circulation for the North Atlantic region covering the period 1241–1970 CE. Based on seasonally resolved Greenland ice core records and a 1200-year-long simulation with an isotope-enabled climate model, we reconstruct sea level pressure and temperature by matching the spatiotemporal variability in the modeled isotopic composition to that of the ice cores. This method allows us to capture the primary (NAO) and secondary mode (Eastern Atlantic Pattern) of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, while, contrary to previous reconstructions, preserving the amplitude of observed year-to-year atmospheric variability. Our results show five winters of positive NAO on average following major tropical volcanic eruptions, which is more persistent than previously suggested. In response to decadal minima of solar activity we find a high-pressure anomaly over northern Europe, while a reinforced opposite response in pressure emerges with a 5-year time lag. On centennial timescales we observe a similar response of circulation as for the 5-year time-lagged response, with a high-pressure anomaly across North America and south of Greenland. This response to solar forcing is correlated to the second mode of atmospheric circulation, the Eastern Atlantic Pattern. The response could be due to an increase in blocking frequency, possibly linked to a weakening of the subpolar gyre. The long-term anomalies of temperature during solar minima shows cooling across Greenland, Iceland and western Europe, resembling the cooling pattern during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850 CE). While our results show significant correlation between solar forcing and the secondary circulation pattern on decadal (r=0.29, p<0.01) and centennial timescales (r=0.6, p<0.01), we find no consistent relationship between solar forcing and NAO. We conclude that solar and volcanic forcing impacts different modes of our reconstructed atmospheric circulation, which can aid in separating the regional effects of forcings and understanding the underlying mechanisms.

Archival processes of the water stable isotope signal in East Antarctic ice cores

Abstract. The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition. By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation–condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.

Evaluating hydrological influences on mid-latitude δ18Op in the Middle East

The oxygen isotope ratio of precipitation (δ18Op) in the mid-latitudes varies in response to multiple climate influences imposing significant challenges to the interpretation of climate proxies such as the oxygen isotope ratio of lake and speleothem calcite (δ18Oc) that incorporates an isotopic finger print of precipitation. This challenge is particularly acute for pre-historic time periods when climate forcings differed significantly from modern and consequently, internal feedbacks altered the transport of moisture as well as the rate of fractionation that determine the isotopic composition of atmospheric moisture. Here we investigate how δ18Op from the mid-Holocene was influenced by internal feedbacks in the Holocene with an isotope-enabled climate model that simulates the atmospheric response to changing boundary conditions and different climatic forcing. We find that δ18Op during the Mid-Holocene was lower than present day consistent with published proxy records. However, this lower value cannot be simply explained by basic isotope drivers such as precipitation amount or seasonality. Rather, we find that the combination of changes in local surface temperature, precipitation amount, upstream isotopic composition of vapor as well as the season can quantitatively explain the isotopic differences between the mid-Holocene and present day.

Spatiotemporal variability in the δ18O-salinity relationship of seawater across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The relationship between salinity and the stable oxygen isotope ratio of seawater (δ18Osw) is of utmost importance to the quantitative reconstruction of past changes in salinity from δ18O values of marine carbonates. This relationship is often considered to be uniform across water masses, but the constancy of the δ18Osw-salinity relationship across space and time remains uncertain, as δ18Osw responds to varying atmospheric vapor sources and pathways, while salinity does not. Here we present new δ18Osw-salinity data from sites spanning the tropical Pacific Ocean. New data from Palau, Papua New Guinea, Kiritimati, and Galápagos show slopes ranging from 0.09 ‰/psu in the Galápagos to 0.32‰/psu in Palau. The slope of the δ18Osw-salinity relationship is higher in the western tropical Pacific versus the eastern tropical Pacific in observations and in two isotope-enabled climate models. A comparison of δ18Osw-salinity relationships derived from short-term spatial surveys and multi-year time series at Papua New Guinea and Galápagos suggests spatial relationships can be substituted for temporal relationships at these sites, at least within the time period of the investigation. However, the δ18Osw-salinity relationship varied temporally at Palau, likely in response to water mass changes associated with interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, suggesting nonstationarity in this local δ18Osw-salinity relationship. Applying local δ18Osw-salinity relationships in a coral δ18O forward model shows that using a constant, basin-wide δ18Osw-salinity slope can both overestimate and underestimate the contribution of δ18Osw to carbonate δ18O variance at individual sites in the western tropical Pacific.

Exploring the oxygen isotope fingerprint of Dansgaard-Oeschger variability and Heinrich events

We present the first transient simulations of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) performed with an oxygen isotope-enabled climate model. Our simulations span several Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and three Heinrich stadials and are directly compared with oxygen isotope records from 13 sediment and 2 ice cores. Our results are consistent with a 30–50% weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials and a complete shutdown during Heinrich stadials. We find that the simulated δ18O anomalies differ significantly between Heinrich stadials and non-Heinrich stadials. This difference is mainly due to different responses in ocean circulation, and therefore climate, impacting oceanic δ18O, while the volume of 18O-depleted meltwater plays a secondary role.

Modeling the oxygen isotope composition of the Antarctic ice sheet and its significance to Pliocene sea level

Abstract Recent estimates of global mean sea level based on the oxygen isotope composition of mid-Pliocene benthic foraminifera vary from 9 to 21 m above present, which has differing implications for the past stability of the Antarctic ice sheet during an interval with atmospheric CO2 comparable to present. Here we simulate the oxygen isotope composition of the Antarctic ice sheet for a range of configurations using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We identify which ice sheet configurations are consistent with the oxygen isotope record and suggest a maximum contribution from Antarctica to the mid-Pliocene sea-level highstand of ∼13 m. We also highlight that the relationship between the oxygen isotope record and sea level is not constant when ice is lost from deep marine basins, which has important implications for the use of oxygen isotopes as a sea-level proxy.

High-resolution leaf wax carbon and hydrogen isotopic record of the late Holocene paleoclimate in arid Central Asia

Abstract. Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotope-enabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that δ D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax δ D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.

The response of pseudo-corals to ENSO in an isotope-enabled climate model

The response of pseudo-corals to ENSO in an isotope-enabled climate model