The origin of Neptune’s large, circular but retrograde satellite Triton has remained largely unexplained. There is an apparent consensus that its origin lies in it being captured, but until recently no successful capture mechanism has been found. Agnor and Hamilton (Agnor, C.B., Hamilton, D.P. [2006]. Nature 441, 192–194) demonstrated that the disruption of a trans-neptunian binary object which had Triton as a member, and which underwent a very close encounter with Neptune, was an effective mechanism to capture Triton while its former partner continued on a hyperbolic orbit. The subsequent evolution of Triton’s post-capture orbit to its current one could have proceeded through gravitational tides (Correia, A.C.M. [2009]. Astrophys. J. 704, L1–L4), during which time Triton was most likely semi-molten (McKinnon, W.B. [1984]. Nature 311, 355–358). However, to date, no study has been performed that considered both the capture and the subsequent tidal evolution. Thus it is attempted here with the use of numerical simulations. The study by Agnor and Hamilton (Agnor, C.B., Hamilton, D.P. [2006]. Nature 441, 192–194) is repeated in the framework of the Nice model (Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F. [2005]. Nature 435, 459–461) to determine the post-capture orbit of Triton. After capture Triton is then subjected to tidal evolution using the model of Mignard (Mignard, F. [1979]. Moon Planets 20, 301–315; Mignard, F. [1980]. Moon Planets 23, 185–201). The perturbations from the Sun and the figure of Neptune are included. The perturbations from the Sun acting on Triton just after its capture cause it to spend a long time in its high-eccentricity phase, usually of the order of 10 Myr, while the typical time to circularise to its current orbit is some 200 Myr, consistent with earlier studies. The current orbit of Triton is consistent with an origin through binary capture and tidal evolution, even though the model prefers Triton to be closer to Neptune than it is today. The probability of capturing Triton in this manner is approximately 0.7%. Since the capture of Triton was at most a 50% event – since only Neptune has one, but Uranus does not – we deduce that in the primordial trans-neptunian disc there were some 100 binaries with at least one Triton-sized member. Morbidelli et al. (Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Bottke, W.F., Dones, L., Nesvorný, D. [2009]. Icarus 202, 310–315) concludes there were some 1000 Triton-sized bodies in the trans-neptunian proto-planetary disc, so the primordial binary fraction with at least one Triton-sized member is 10%. This value is consistent with theoretical predictions, but at the low end. If Triton was captured at the same time as Neptune’s irregular satellites, the far majority of these, including Nereid, would be lost. This suggests either that Triton was captured on an orbit with a small semi-major axis a ≲ 50 R N (a rare event), or that it was captured before the dynamical instability of the Nice model, or that some other mechanism was at play. The issue of keeping the irregular satellites remains unresolved.
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