Iranian Election Research Articles

Iran and the Gulf: The Era of Hassan Rouhani

The paper utilizes the theory of neoclassical realism as its theoretical foundation to understand the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). An insight is provided into defining Rouhani’s foreign policy discourse and slogan, primarily towards the GCC, while addressing the significant shifts in the region, which implicated Iran’s Rouhani stance towards the GCC and its members. The paper concludes with how the recent developments of the Iranian elections and Ebrahim Raisi will impact the future of Iran-GCC relations. From an analytical standpoint, it was found that Rouhani had difficulty engaging with the GCC countries due to impediments by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Similarly, the article highlights Rouhani’s era in Iran’s foreign behavior towards the GCC while exploring whether he achieved his foreign ambitions and provided a vision for the significant challenges awaiting the Raisi presidency.

Political opposition and voter mobilization in an authoritarian state: The case of parliamentary elections in Iran

ABSTRACT Most autocratic leaders have confidence they can control election results by holding unfair and unfree competitive elections. They have many tools at their disposal to ensure they do not lose elections. Although electoral fraud and ballot box stuffing can secure an easy win, such tools may trigger mass protests and jeopardize the existence of the nondemocratic state. Nondemocratic leaders abuse the electoral system to prevent coordination among opponents and the masses. From changing election rules and banning political parties to eliminating effective candidates, the ‘menu of manipulation’ that nondemocratic leaders employ blocks creation of a focal point for collective action among the opposition. Moreover, the opposition rarely has an opportunity to solve collective action problems and deliver a unified message for change. When the opposition does capitalize on this opportunity, a segment of the electorate that opposes the nondemocratic leader responds to the opposition’s mobilization efforts. Based on original data gathered at the district level between 2000 and 2016, this study offers an original investigation into Iranian legislative elections. I argue that when opponents of an autocratic leader provide a unified request for change in the status quo, there is a surge in voter turnout.

Presidential Elections in Iran: Islamic Idealism since the Revolution

Presidential Elections in Iran: Islamic Idealism since the Revolution

How to compose a media mix to win an electoral campaign? proposing a framework for political marketing

This article addresses the issue of composing different media to send an integrated message to the voters in electoral campaigns and presents a framework for managing media in political marketing. The authors conducted deep interviews with strategy developers of the past presidential elections as well as two parliamentary elections in Iran to extract the strategy development process for delivering the campaign message to the target audiences. thematic analysis used for analysis of data and interviews coded in three levels of open, axial and selective. The paper suggests a sequence of audience, message and media to launch a successful campaign within a framework that starts with campaign structure and strategy and accomplished with economic effectiveness measuring and success rate.

The Anti-Aryan Moment: Decolonization, Diplomacy, and Race in Late Pahlavi Iran

In 1946, the entertainer and activist Paul Robeson pondered America's intentions in Iran. In what was to become one of the first major crises of the Cold War, Iran was fighting a Soviet aggressor that did not want to leave. Robeson posed the question, “Is our State Department concerned with protecting the rights of Iran and the welfare of the Iranian people, or is it concerned with protecting Anglo-American oil in that country and the Middle East in general?” This was a loaded question. The US was pressuring the Soviet Union to withdraw its troops after its occupation of the country during World War II. Robeson wondered why America cared so much about Soviet forces in Iranian territory, when it made no mention of Anglo-American troops “in countries far removed from the United States or Great Britain.” An editorial writer for a Black journal in St. Louis posed a different variant of the question: Why did the American secretary of state, James F. Byrnes, concern himself with elections in Iran, Arabia or Azerbaijan and yet not “interfere in his home state, South Carolina, which has not had a free election since Reconstruction?”

Restricting NGOs: From Pushback to Accommodation

Restricting NGOs: From Pushback to Accommodation

The 2020 Parliamentary Election in Iran

Introduction: Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has gone through eleven parliamentary elections. The highest participation rate was recorded with 71 percent in 1996. In February 2020, the regime experienced the lowest turnout in its 42-year history. According to Iran's officials, about 42 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. Independent observers, however, assert that such ordinary claims cannot be held true. The Iranian regime has repeatedly demonstrated a lack of integrity. Objective: This paper aims at assessing the level of participation in the parliamentary election on February 21, 2020. The assessment is expected to shed light on Tehran's approval and election turnout rates. Methods: The author prepared an online survey, which was distributed through widely used social media channels and instant messaging accounts in Iran. An online survey consisting of 17 questions and 21 variables put in the Persian language was publicly distributed on the very same day of the election on February 21, 2020. To ensure that the study represented Iran's social structure, post-stratification or nonresponse weights were applied throughout multiple auxiliary variables. The survey was operationalized based on the snowball effect to reach out to a representative sample of ordinary Iranians. This was accomplished through an effective marketing program. Results: Relying on the snowball effect, with over 20 thousand responses, the author collected a deep sample of 1,060 Iranian citizens. With a probability of 95 percent and 3 percent margin of error, it is fair to assume that that highly likely about 1.9 million citizens elected the new members of Majles. In a nutshell, the majority of eligible voters apparently boycotted the 2020 parliamentary election. Less than 9 million Iranians cast their votes, including seven million invalid ballots. If Iranians could participate in a free referendum, they would overwhelmingly reject the Islamic Republic as a political system. Conclusion: Mounting evidence of an increasing level of dissatisfaction with the Islamic regime combined with an amplifying distrust toward Iran's electoral system has reduced and removed the clerics' legitimacy. Put merely, mullahs in Tehran do not represent the majority of Iranians. Recommendation: The West has two options: (1) partnering with a highly unpopular regime consisting of a septuagenarian group of 2,330 authoritarian religious men or (2) helping freedom-seeking people of Iran who pursue a fundamental change toward democracy. History will judge all decisions and actions.

Explanation of Local Elections in Iran from the Perspective of the Geopolitics of Gender (Case Study: Urban and Rural Council Elections in Fars Province)

Explanation of Local Elections in Iran from the Perspective of the Geopolitics of Gender (Case Study: Urban and Rural Council Elections in Fars Province)

The impact of the Iranian presidents on Tehran’s nuclear policy

The article discusses the relevant issue of the presidential elections in Iran and the possible impact of the new Iranian president on Iran’s nuclear policy. The nuclear policy of the previous Iranian presidents was also analysed to define the level of autonomy of the president from the Iranian Supreme Leader. The article considers the research tasks related to analysis of the relations between the Iranian presidents and supreme leaders, comparing the nuclear policy of the different Iranian presidents and assessing the possible outcome of the 2021 presidential elections for the future development of the Iranian nuclear policy. It is mentioned that the objective of the article is to define the role of the Iranian presidents in development of the Iranian nuclear program and negotiations about it with the international community. The research methods of content analysis, comparative analysis, and system analysis were used in the article. It is mentioned in the article that most Iranian presidents were side-lined from the ruling elite after the end of their presidential terms, and this is one of the cases that demonstrates the limited character of the presidential power in Iran. The article reminds that only President Ali Khamenei managed to successfully continue his political career after his presidency because he became the Supreme Leader after the death of Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini in 1989. The article concludes that the first three Iranian presidents (A. Bani Sadr, M. Ali Rajai, and A. Khamenei) had very limited power, and the next four presidents (A. Hashemi Rafsanjani, M. Khatami, M. Ahmadinejad, and H. Rouhani) had bigger impact on Iran’s nuclear policy although theirpower remained limited. The article supposes that the current Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had complicated relations with the Iranian presidents, and for this reason he might have decided to further limit the impact of the next Iranian president on Iran’s nuclear policy; and this could be a main reason why most prominent reformist and moderate candidates were not allowed to participate in 2021 presidential elections, which guarantees a victory of the hardliner who is loyal to the Supreme Leader. The article concludes that despite the internal and external political tensions around the Iranian 2021 presidential elections, the next Iranian president would not have a significant impact on Iran’s nuclear policy, which would continue to be defined by the Supreme Leader.

Application of the ideas of neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism in Iranian nuclear policy

The article examines two antagonistic theories of international relations – neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism using the case of Iran's nuclear policy. The author compares the approaches of neorealists and neoliberal institutionalists to the problem of nuclear proliferation and analyzes how these approaches can explain the evolution of Iran's military nuclear program. Iran is a country with significant energy resources, namely second place after Saudi Arabia in terms of oil reserves and second in terms of natural gas reserves after Russia; Iran also has a unique geographical location in such regions as the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. Also, a certain policy of Iran is formed on the basis of the Shiite branch of Islam, which already distinguishes this country, given the particularly unfavorable historical conditions under which the Shiite Islam was formed and the events of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 and the Iran-Iraq War of 1980–1988, when Iran faced Iraq alone and use of chemical weapons by Iraq, which deepened Iranian isolation thoughts. The fact that there has been no international response to Iraq's use of chemical weapons has heightened Iran's sense of isolation. This experience was certainly imprinted in the Iranian national psyche and caused even greater distrust in international arms control treaties. Relations with the United States in Iran are extremely tense and unstable, depending on the US administration and the political situation in Iran, as Iran has traditionally maneuvered between radical conservatives and more moderate politicians. The US elections in 2020 and the elections in Iran in 2021 will be an important stage in the further development of relations and the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The article examines the extent to which the theoretical considerations of proponents of theories of neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are reflected in Iran's practical nuclear policy and what impact these two theories may have on the future nuclear strategy of the Iranian leadership.

Election Journalism: Investigating Media Bias on Telegram during the 2017 Presidential Election in Iran

While past studies have predominantly focused on bias in traditional mainstream media in the Western context, this article seeks to explore bias on the Telegram App during the 2017 presidential election in Iran. In doing so, the most visited Telegram news channel titled AkhbareFori (literally meaning breaking news) was selected. Three types of bias (i.e. gatekeeping, coverage and statement) were examined through quantitative content analysis. The results of the study regarding gatekeeping bias show the rate of mainstream sources affiliated to the Reformists was higher than the rate of Conservative sources. In addition, the study indicates that the rate of news coverage from the Reformists was higher than the rate of news coverage from the Conservatives. Moreover, the results indicate that the channel showed higher positive orientation towards the Reformists. Accordingly, AkhbareFori had all three types of bias in favor of the Reformists. Other characteristics of the AkhbareFori channel such as use of news values and tone of news items are also discussed in the article.

ЕВОЛЮЦІЯ ПОЛІТИКИ США ДО ЯДЕРНОЇ ПРОГРАМИ ІРАНУ У XXIСТОЛІТТІ: ВІД БУША ДО ТРАМПА

Since 2002 until now, the Iranian nuclear program remains one of the hottest international problems despite the efforts of three US presidential administrations, which ruled during this time to solve the Iranian issue. This article analyses and compares the policy toward Iran of three US presidents George Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, discusses the positive and negative consequences of their attempts to solve the Iranian nuclear issue, and outlines the future prospects of US-Iran communication over the nuclear deal. President Trump's policy on Iran was somewhat similar to that of President Bush, both presidents rejected the policy of any concessions to Iran and focused on the policy of pressure. The US withdrawal from the JCPOA influenced not only the relations between the US and Iran, but also the relations of European countries, as since its release in 2018, Europe has tried to save the JCPOA and deter Iran from resuming its nuclear program. In general, Trump's policies not only canceled the nuclear deal, which was the result of long negotiations by the Obama administration, but also complicated further negotiations with Iran. Despite the victory of Democrat Joe Biden, who is a follower of Obama's policies, signing a new agreement with Iran may be even more difficult than it was in 2013-2015, because Iran's missile program has become even more developed, as well as distrust of international treaties as well. The article analyzes the possible consequences of Trump's policies and options for returning to dialogue and agreement. The next crucial stage in Iran-US relations is the upcoming elections in Iran in 2021, the results of which will affect the readiness of any concessions to ease sanctions and establish a dialogue. Key words: Iranian nuclear program, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), economic sanctions.

Nested Game of Elections in Iran

Nested Game of Elections in Iran

Chris Featherman. (2015) Discourses of Ideology and Identity: Social Media and the Iranian Election Protests

This article reviews Discourses of Ideology and Identity: Social Media and the Iranian Election Protests 978-1-138-82558-1$ 242.00

Political Movement and Electionlore

This paper is an ethnographic study of digital culture and Iranian online political humor: a hybridized genre of folklore which converges in both online and oral spheres where it is created and shared. It specifically explores the emergence and growth of politicized humorous cellphonelore, which I term “electionlore”, during and after the 2016 February elections in Iran. Analysing different joke sub-cycles in this electionlore, I argue that they serve as a powerful tool for my informants to construct their own “newslore” (Frank 2011) and make manifest what I define as “vernacular politics” through which they become mobilized and unified in their political activism. I diverge from the theory of “resistance jokes” (Powell and Paton 1988; Bryant 2006; Davies 2011) and propose a new framework for studying political jokes in countries suspended between democracy and dictatorship, demonstrating how jokes serve as an effective and strategic form of reform and unquiet protest.

The puzzle of populism in Iran’s electoral politics

ABSTRACTThe article examines the impact of an unsettled electoral market and evolving political predispositions on the rise and fall of populism in Iran. The article argues that the absence of a polarized electoral contest between reformists and conservatives paved the way for the victory of the populist candidate in the 2005 presidential election in Iran, while the deep economic recession resulting from conservative administration policies created a long-term political experience which influenced voters and led to the victory of the pragmatist candidate in the 2013 and 2017 elections. Quantitative analysis indicates that in the 2005 election, the struggle between conservatives and reformists did not impact the competition between candidates, and consequently depoliticized attitudes, for example distributive demands, ideology, and anti-ruling elite sentiment gained significance, whereas polarization between conservatives and a coalition of reformists and pragmatists enhanced the role of partisanship and triggered the fall of populism in the 2013 election.

Elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran: A source of democratic learning and moderation

Abstract Elections held under Iran’s ruling clergy have always been manipulated and have hardly been free and fair. A simple reference to Iran’s current political situation attests to the fact that these elections have not proven to be a force for democratization of the political system. However, this article suggests that the very existence of electoral procedures in the Islamic Republic effectively split the Islamists, giving their left-wing faction a new chance of survival in Iran’s political milieu. This by extension resulted in behavioural and ideological moderation, and in the formation of a new version of political Islam that accommodates democratic norms within an Islamic framework. Exploring the politico-religious transformation of Iran’s reformist Islamists, this article argues that the inclusion-moderation hypothesis could be effectively utilized to trace and explicate their politico-religious trajectory. Furthermore, the semi-competitive nature of elections in Iran has on more than one occasion generated uncertainty. Not only has this outcome taken the regime to the brink, but it has also opened up spaces in which citizens occasionally, if not permanently, entertain democratic learning. Based on interviews with 80 political activists in Iran, this article argues that the electoral politics has seeded democratic norms in the minds of the believers.

Book review: Chris Featherman, Discourses of Ideology and Identity: Social Media and the Iranian Election Protests

Book review: Chris Featherman, <i>Discourses of Ideology and Identity: Social Media and the Iranian Election Protests</i>

The Significance of Iran's 2017 Presidential Election

Many casual observers’ reaction to Iran's presidential elections would be “What election? Are there real elections in Iran?” The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) has a notorious human rights record, ...

Winning Iran's Election Is Just The Beginning Of Rouhani's Political Struggles

Iran's president may have been re‐elected, but he'll need to win the supreme leader's support and get foreign powers to engage with Tehran to be successful.