The 2020 Parliamentary Election in Iran

Abstract

Introduction: Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has gone through eleven parliamentary elections. The highest participation rate was recorded with 71 percent in 1996. In February 2020, the regime experienced the lowest turnout in its 42-year history. According to Iran's officials, about 42 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. Independent observers, however, assert that such ordinary claims cannot be held true. The Iranian regime has repeatedly demonstrated a lack of integrity. Objective: This paper aims at assessing the level of participation in the parliamentary election on February 21, 2020. The assessment is expected to shed light on Tehran's approval and election turnout rates. Methods: The author prepared an online survey, which was distributed through widely used social media channels and instant messaging accounts in Iran. An online survey consisting of 17 questions and 21 variables put in the Persian language was publicly distributed on the very same day of the election on February 21, 2020. To ensure that the study represented Iran's social structure, post-stratification or nonresponse weights were applied throughout multiple auxiliary variables. The survey was operationalized based on the snowball effect to reach out to a representative sample of ordinary Iranians. This was accomplished through an effective marketing program. Results: Relying on the snowball effect, with over 20 thousand responses, the author collected a deep sample of 1,060 Iranian citizens. With a probability of 95 percent and 3 percent margin of error, it is fair to assume that that highly likely about 1.9 million citizens elected the new members of Majles. In a nutshell, the majority of eligible voters apparently boycotted the 2020 parliamentary election. Less than 9 million Iranians cast their votes, including seven million invalid ballots. If Iranians could participate in a free referendum, they would overwhelmingly reject the Islamic Republic as a political system. Conclusion: Mounting evidence of an increasing level of dissatisfaction with the Islamic regime combined with an amplifying distrust toward Iran's electoral system has reduced and removed the clerics' legitimacy. Put merely, mullahs in Tehran do not represent the majority of Iranians. Recommendation: The West has two options: (1) partnering with a highly unpopular regime consisting of a septuagenarian group of 2,330 authoritarian religious men or (2) helping freedom-seeking people of Iran who pursue a fundamental change toward democracy. History will judge all decisions and actions.