Irish Economy Research Articles

IRELAND’S COMPETITIVENESS PERFORMANCE: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

The modern challenges of world economy and conditions in which the state exists provide the opportunity to emphasize that competitiveness of national economy in the world market is the key determinant in the state’s prosperity path. The research is focused on the performance of competitiveness of the Irish economy in global rankings (IMD and WEF). The obtained results allow demonstrating not only the rank of Ireland, but also determining the factors of its economic growth and those, which still should be improved. This study became a benchmark for recommendations to Irish economy in ensuring the long-term growth.

Analysis the Effect of Optimal Tax on Return of Housing Capital in the Dynamic Optimization Model: Case Study of Iranian Economy

Analysis the Effect of Optimal Tax on Return of Housing Capital in the Dynamic Optimization Model: Case Study of Iranian Economy

Investigating Asymmetry Inside the regimes in Okun's Law: the Markov Switching Approach

After World War II, countries have used sanctions against target countries instead of military attacks to force them to change their policies. Particularly, following Iran revolution, Iran was sanctioned by the U.S. and its alliances which the strictest sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2012. From the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on, most of the levied sanctions were supposed to be lifted in 2016 by the United Nations which could alleviate the effect of sanctions on Iran economy. With regards to the effect of sanctions on countries economy, it is crucial to study the sanctions effectiveness on Iran economy. Therefore, this study compares the structural economic position of Iran in the international trade network in 2012 and 2016. Also, it investigates the effectiveness of international sanctions on Iran's structural position in the international trade network. Results show that Iran is not only a periphery in the international trade network, but also its structural position in the international trade network is not affected significantly by the sanctions.

Investigating the Effect of International Sanctions on Iran's Trade Structure: A Network Theory Approach

After World War II, countries have used sanctions against target countries instead of military attacks to force them to change their policies. Particularly, following Iran revolution, Iran was sanctioned by the U.S. and its alliances which the strictest sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2012. From the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on, most of the levied sanctions were supposed to be lifted in 2016 by the United Nations which could alleviate the effect of sanctions on Iran economy. With regards to the effect of sanctions on countries economy, it is crucial to study the sanctions effectiveness on Iran economy. Therefore, this study compares the structural economic position of Iran in the international trade network in 2012 and 2016. Also, it investigates the effectiveness of international sanctions on Iran's structural position in the international trade network. Results show that Iran is not only a periphery in the international trade network, but also its structural position in the international trade network is not affected significantly by the sanctions.

Identifying energy-intensive key sectors in Iran: Evidence from decomposed input-output multipliers

Abstract The purpose of this study is to two-fold. One is to identify key economic sectors that contribute to fossil energy consumption of the Iranian economy and second is to suggest an energy management policy for cleaner production. The main question of this article is how to identify the sector which can reduce energy intensity and also is directly responsible for energy consumption. The energy intensity of each sector according to the Input-Output approach can be decomposed into own weighted component made during the activities of the sector and pure weighted component generated by the activities in other sectors. Based on Input-Output Table of Iran in 2011, the results show that six sectors including production and distribution of electricity, crude oil and natural gas extraction, transportation, manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, services and manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products are energy intensive key sectors of Iran which have the most value of own weighted backward and forward multipliers compared to the other economic sectors. Hence, appropriate policy implications are suggested for those six sectors. These policies should be targeted to the sectors with high own weighted effects like converting natural gas-based utilities into combined cycle ones in electricity sector. In the opposite case, since more than one sector is involved in fossil energy consumption, this type of direct policies cannot be recommended for those sectors with high pure weighted effects. Consequently, policy makers should employ cross-sectoral policies for cleaner production in Iran.

Transmission Channels of Central Bank Asset Purchases in the Irish Economy

The European Central Bank (ECB) engaged in an expanded asset purchase programme (APP) from 2014 to 2018 to help achieve their primary objective of price stability. Total assets purchased over this period was over €2.5 trillion and new net purchases ended in December 2018. This paper identifies whether the ECB’s APP in Ireland operated through the portfolio rebalancing channel, the signalling channel or the lending channel. It presents a quantitative descriptive analysis of some key Irish data sets in the 2014–2018 period and uses time-series visualisation and trend analysis to identify trends and correlations. There are a number of preliminary findings. First, much downward pressure on sovereign debt yields and spreads had occurred before the APP began due to previous accommodative monetary policy and the signalling channel. Second, the corporate-sector purchase programme (CSPP) did impact on targeted bonds and may have had spill overs to non-targeted bonds. Third, the APP did not lead to much increased lending to the SME sector. Fourth, while households did engage in traditional portfolio rebalancing, Irish banks did not and were perhaps more motivated to meet their capital requirements and manage their level of reserves. This is a first step towards understanding the transmission channels of ECB policy in Ireland and more work needs to be done to detangle the transmission of the most recent APP from other factors and consider these findings in the context of theoretical models. Such work is important to help inform policy makers on enhancing the transmission mechanism to the Irish economy of the recently launched new ECB asset purchase programme from November 2019.

Internationalisation, global capitalism and the integration of Iran

There is a common tendency to observe a process of homogenisation when the current international structure is analysed. However, the globalisation process embraces heterogeneities and contradictions stemming from the integration of different states into a single global structure. This article explores the role and motivations of domestic social classes in creating variations in the form of integration of their states into the global whole. It takes one of the odd cases at the centre of inquiry and particularly concentrates on the emergence of alternative forms to the neoliberal globalisation in the process of Iran’s integration into the global capitalism. The accumulation strategies adopted by the dominant class factions in Iran are investigated in order to reveal their dialectical relationship with the international capitalist structure. Their role in the international political economy of Iran demonstrates how social agents through their strategic activities create variations in the forms of integration into the global capitalism. The article compares the Iranian case to the varieties of integration of lately capitalised but not peripherised BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) states. This aims to reveal that whilst these countries have truly integrated into the global capitalist system, the internationalisation of their states contradicts the accumulation strategies of their dominant classes.

Refugee immigration and the growth of low-wage work in the EU15

Our paper focuses on current trends in refugee migration and job polarization. In so doing, we assess the role of refugee migration in relation to institutional, technologicalty 1 and globalization factors in an effort to trace the factors underlying the growth of low-paying occupations in EU 15 between 1995 and 2017. Our empirical findings suggest that refugee migration has a small but positive and statistically significant impact on the growth of low-wage occupations in the EU 15 as a whole. However, the effect is attributed to Southern Europe and the UK and Irish economies. Despite hosting relatively large numbers of refugee migrants, the effects in the Nordic countries and Continental Europe are negligible, if present, and non-existent in the long run (5 years). When including all migrant workers, we find a limited impact on the growth of low-wage work in general, while the impact of immigrant workers from low-income third party countries becomes positive for the UK and Irish economy, but less for other European macro-regions. This suggests that institutional settings can play an important role in how the economy adjusts to migration. It also suggests that traditional fiscal cost calculations in relation to migration are often overestimated, as they implicitly build on the assumption that refugees and general immigration have great impacts on the growth of low-wage occupations.

The Possibilities of Shame in Dermot Bolger's Tanglewood

Dermot Bolger’s 2015 novel Tanglewood is one of a raft of literary responses to the demise of Ireland’s recent economic ‘miracle’, the so-called ‘Celtic Tiger’. Bolger’s narrative is deeply critical of the corrupted morality that characterised facets of the property ‘boom’, a corner of the Irish economy that underlay such a significant part of the economic buoyancy of the country. Consequently, Bolger mobilises shame as one part of his critical armoury, and in so doing he resurrects a familiar affect in the Irish context. However, Bolger’s use of shame, and his suggestion that those who benefited most lavishly during Ireland’s Celtic Tiger period should be shamed, and feel ashamed, are deeply conservative and self-defeating ways of confronting the aftermath of the economic recession in Ireland. As we note, Bolger’s version of shame causes little more than personal isolation and familial fracture, and lacks any potential to partake of what we shall term ‘a revolutionary politics of shame’.

“An Invitation to All Persons:” The Dublin Society and Public Reason in Eighteenth-Century Ireland

The paper explores the activities of the Dublin Society as a form of public reason. Founded in 1731 when the Irish legislature and all trade policy was under the oversight of the British parliament, the Dublin Society undertook two roles usually under the purview of the government: economic improvement and public reason. Rawls’ definitions of public reason, with some qualifications are used. Given the nature of Irish governance, the Society transmutes the idea of public reason into the economic realm. Through its various projects, experiments, contests, schools, and publications, which all had public input, the Society develops a process whereby factual conclusions and social consensus can be made on the Irish economy. Although it did not fully escape the prejudices of its time, the Society provides a larger space than Irish political institutions for members of the public to engage in public reason as economic citizens rather than political or religious ones.

Are regional house prices stationary in Iran? New evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test

PurposeIn the Iranian economy, investing in the housing market has been very important and beneficial for investors and households, because of inflationary environment, low real interest rates, underdeveloped financial and tax systems and economic sanctions. Hence, prediction of house prices is the main concern of housing market agents in the economy. The purpose of this paper is to test the stationary properties of Iran's provinces to improve the prediction of future housing prices.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the authors have tested the stationary properties of 20 Iran’s province centers over the period from 1993 to 2017 using a novel Fourier quantile unit root test and conventional ordinary/generalized least squares (O/GLS) linear unit root/stationary tests.FindingsAccording to conventional O/GLS linear unit root/stationary tests, most of the house prices series exhibit random walk behavior, whereas by applying the Fourier quantile unit root test, the null hypothesis of unit root is rejected for 15 out of 20 series. Other results indicated that house prices of cities responded differently to positive and negative shocks.Originality/valuePrevious studies only addressed conventional OLS or GLS linear unit root or stationary tests, but novel Fourier quantile unit root test was not used. New results were obtained based on this unit root test, that, as a priori knowledge, will help benefiting from the positive effects, or avoiding being victimized by the negative effects.

Analysis of the Model of Sustainable Development Planning in Rural Economy of Iran (Case Study: Yazd Province)

Purpose- The present study was undertaken to explore the model of the sustainable development planning of rural economy in Yazd province. Design/methodology/approach- This is an applied research that draws on an exploratory approach for data collection and is descriptive-analytical with regard to the description of characteristics. The main research instrument was a questionnaire coupled with semi-structured interviews. The statistical population of the study consisted of government actors in Yazd province, who were selected using multi-stage sampling method. Findings- The findings of this research indicated that planning sustainable development of rural economy in Yazd province has been consistent with the rational approach in terms of characteristics and compatible with the operational planning in terms of pattern. The central planning process has been top-down, and therefore, the local communities have not been involved in any of the planning processes. Research limitations / implications-The dominance of the traditional views on planning and the absence of stakeholders and locals in the planning framework has led to seven decades of ineffective development programs in Iran. Therefore, changing the planning pattern from the traditional (rational) to new (interactive-communicative) approach, which would lead to decentralization and the establishment of a public involvement in the planning system, especially in rural development, can help cope with the shortcomings of seven decades of rural development programs in Iran in general, and Yazd province in particular. Practical implications- Trusting people and utilizing the knowledge of rural people, especially the educated and young people, not only in planning but also in managerial positions such as district deputy in which the candidates are chosen among the local people, use of regional potentials such as Basij of Engineers to set up small knowledge-based circles at the city level and specialization of rural districts are some of the solutions that can trigger rural development under an interactive pattern. Originality/value: It is also important to identify the model that is employed by the dominant approach to development planning in a country. Based on this model, many features such as the extent of concentration and the role of people in the planning system, the role of local potentials and the limitations in planning, the place of monitoring and evaluation, among other things, in fostering development can be identified.

The Inefficiency of Energy Pricing Policy: The Case of Iran

High-energy consumption leads to a serious threat to climate change and human health, while contributing to environmental pollution. Concerns about climate change, air quality, and water quality and availability have made Iranian people and government increasingly aware of the need to reconcile economic and environmental objectives. Government energy pricing policies have multiple and often conflicting objectives: economic efficiency, government revenues, maintenance or improvement of income distribution, promotion of particular sectors demand management and security of supply. Increasing energy efficiency is the quickest and least costly way of addressing energy security and the environmental as well as economic challenge. According to statistics, since 1988, the Iranian government has increased the price of energy by 23.2% annually to reduce the consumption of energy (Dargahi and Ghorbannejad in Iran Energy Econ 1(4):67–100, 2012). But in this period, the growth rate of energy intensity was about 1.6%. In Iranian economy, people know, in advance, to what extent the government would increase the energy price. People expect an increase in the price of all products due to the increase in energy price. In this paper, we study such a behavior which has led to inefficiency of the government policy. Consumer subsidies are quantified utilizing the price-gap approach that compares end-user prices and reference prices that would predominate in competitive markets where no subsidies are provided. An input–output analysis is undertaken to investigate impacts in the short term. We modify the conventional input–output price model to consider the effect of the increase in energy prices.

Risk Aversion and Business Cycles in Iran’s Economy

ترجیحات افراد نسبت به ریسک یکی از متغیرهای مهم اقتصادی بوده و تأثیر بسیاری در تصمیمات اقتصادی دارد. تصمیمات سرمایه‌گذاری، مصرف، پس­انداز، خرید بیمه و قراردادهای آتی از جمله تصمیماتی هستند که ترجیحات ریسک در آن نقش کلیدی را بازی می‌کند. با توجه به اهمیت ترجیحات ریسکی در فرآیند تصمیم­گیری، محاسبه شاخصی که بتواند به نحوی وضعیت گرایش ریسک در کل اقتصاد را نشان دهد، ضروری است. هدف از این پژوهش، برآورد سری زمانی پارامتر ریسک گریزی در اقتصاد ایران بر اساس اطلاعات فصلی طی دوره 1396-1381 است. به این منظور از الگوی گارچ در میانگین با پارامترهای متغیر طی زمان استفاده شد. نتایج برآورد ریسک گریزی در اقتصاد ایران نشان داد، این پارامتر در اقتصاد ایران ثابت نبوده و طی دوره‌ی مورد بررسی بین 81/0 تا 6/7 در نوسان بوده است. همچنین نتایج پژوهش نشان داد، ریسک گریزی در دوره‌ی رونق نسبت به رکود به‌مراتب پایین­تر بوده و رفتار ضدچرخه‌‌ای دارد.

Environmental pollution and economic growth elasticities of maritime and air transportations in Iran

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of maritime and air transportation on the environment and economy of Iran. The authors specify two dynamic models of the environmental pollution and the economic growth. Then, the authors estimate the environmental and economic elasticities of maritime and air transportation in short run and long run in Iran during 1978–2012. Design/methodology/approach The authors estimate the environmental and economic elasticities of maritime elasticities in short and long run, using simultaneous equations system. Findings The findings indicate that the short- and long-run environmental pollution elasticities of maritime transportation are higher than those of the air ones. In addition, the economic growth elasticities are greater in the air transportation compared to maritime one. As a result, the maritime transportation is more pollutant and less productive in Iran in comparison with the air transportation. Originality/value The policymakers are advised to improve the infrastructure of maritime transportation from both the environmental and economic point of views. Consequently, the air transportation is considered as a cleaner and more beneficial transportation mode in Iran, where geographical position limits the maritime transport as a widespread transportation mode.

US Corporate Tax Cuts: Spillovers to the Irish Economy

We examine spillovers to the Irish economy from US corporate income tax rate cuts and find they lead to a small but persistent increase in Irish economic output. Our analysis of the transmission channels shows that an increase in investment, employment and exports in the externally-financed industrial sector largely drives this expansion. We also find that output spillovers from US corporate income tax cuts are larger when there is slack in the Irish labour market. Our findings suggest that the changing structure of the Irish economy means any spillovers to real economic activity from the recent US corporate tax cuts could be relatively minor. However, the larger presence and shifting focus of foreign multinational corporations’ operations in Ireland means lessons from past US corporate tax cuts may be of limited value in predicting the effects of the recent US tax system reform.

Ireland

The Irish economy continues to expand strongly, benefitting from higher net exports by multinational enterprises and robust domestic demand. Accelerating wage growth reflects tight labor market conditions and inflation has started to pick up. Crisis legacies have diminished but some vulnerabilities persist. The outlook remains broadly positive, provided Brexit proceeds in an orderly manner. However, the economy operates near full capacity and an accelerating cyclical momentum could re-ignite a boom-bust dynamic. A no-deal Brexit represents the key downside risk, while escalation in global protectionism and sudden changes in corporate tax planning of multinational enterprises in Ireland could adversely affect the economy and public finances.

Effects of Iran's WTO Accession on the Cement Industry: A Dynamic Disequilibrium Adjustment Model (DDAM) of Simultaneous Equations

Many companies around the globe are re-examining their business operations to explore profitable growth in international markets.The attractiveness of the membership in WTO can be recognized not only in the growing number of its members but also as a result of increasing access to potential markets around the world. Iranian economy suffers from huge inefficiency in its trade relationships with other countries due to import compression policy and strict import controls. Iran's import profile is heavily skewed towards those tradable that are not strongly under the effects of WTO, indicating protectionism policy in the industry sector. Besides the need for easing protectionism, the emphasis placed on the growth of non-oil exports and reducing oil dependency as an objective in the five-year development plans provides a strong argument for joining WTO. Measuring technical efficiency in the cement industry in Iran suggests that companies with export-orientation policy have potentials to succeed in increasing their technical efficiency.The new discovering realm of WTO for Iran's trade policy has been evaluated in this paper. The pros and cons for joining induced us to investigate the effects of Iran's membership on the cement industry. By designing a dynamic disequilibrium adjustment model (DDAM), we use annual data for the period 1963-2002 to estimate a simultaneous system of econometric equations including cement supply, exports, imports, and consumption functions in order to quantify the effects of joining on the cement industry of Iran. One of the main challenges confronting the Iranian cement industry is to improve the competitiveness of the industry by reducing the subsidies, removing restrictions, and price controls. Indeed, the experience of other counties after joining WTO portrays a conflicting profile on the effects of accession on domestic economies. While some countries have developed important trading partners, others have suffered due to the loss of domestic industries. In this paper, we intend to examine the hypothesis of whether reducing the tariff rates will promote Iranian cement industry. The results reveal that joining WTO has negligible effects on consumption, production, and exports, though, will raise imports substantially.

Theological Ethics in a Neoliberal Age: Confronting the Christian Problem with Wealth by Kevin Hargaden (review)

Theological Ethics in a NeoliberalAge: Confronting the Christian Problem with Wealth, Kevin Hargaden (Eugene, Oregon: Cascade Books, 2018), xxiii+208 pages. This is a decidedly challenging book, bringing into focus what damage neoliberal (hereinafter NL) economics has done to contemporary Ireland and offering a theological alternative. There are four chapters, each with a different ‘time’, which serve to offer a feel for the shape and direction of the book. Chapter 1 is titled ‘We’re All Neoliberal Now (The Time as it is on the Clock)’; Chapter 2 ‘Karl Barth and the Parables of Jesus (The Time as it is in the Kingdom)’; Chapter 3 ‘Telling stories about Irish Money (Narrating the Past’), and the final chapter is, arrestingly, ‘Rich Worship and their Response to Wealth (Narrating the Future)’. You see the pattern, and how the different chapters address the prophetic question of ‘What Time is it?’ Hargaden sets out why NL poses a theological problem for Christians: ‘The story that we [sc. NL] are telling is the story in which we believe that neoliberalism is the path to wealth, and we refuse to conceive of a world where we are not wealthy’ (p.6). He argues that NL is nothing else than idolatry, and that because of it we live in an age of economic plunder in the end, like all idols, NL will eventually and inevitably let you down. Then he goes on to look at Jesus’s subversive parables, through the perceptive lens of Karl Barth, and points to the very different ways in which memory operates in NL and in Christian worship: ‘In the era of neoliberalism, the future is shaped by the present. In the Kingdom of God, the present is shaped by the future’ (p.38). Hargaden makes the important point that something like half of Jesus’s parables deal with themes such as money, wealth and the economy, but that they do not admit of a single interpretation: they are ‘irreducibly polyvalent’ (p.43), and touched with a certain impiety, which gives them their shock value. They are, he argues, to be read ‘apocalyptically’, to expose the in-breaking Kingdom. So in the parable of the Ten Virgins, ‘time, and its effect on our attitude to our action, is presented as the critical key to the tale’ (p.54). And he does something similar with those other two great parables from the end of Matthew’s teaching, those of the Talents and the Sheep and the Goats, and he concludes that, ‘If there is a distinctive Christian wealth ethic, it must consist of practices determined by an allegiance that lies primarily with the Studies • volume 108 • number 430 223 Summer 2019: Book Reviews Kingdom of God, as against more seemingly apparent realities’ (p.65). Hargaden offers an imaginative and sensitive treatment of Barth (the second greatest theologian of the twentieth century) on the parables, arguing that a theology of wealth is profoundly scriptural. Then he turns his attention to recent crises in the Irish economy, telling three chilling stories about how NL has in fact operated in Ireland, and how essential it is to use a different sort of language, not that of austerity, but that of abundance, to do justice to God’s creation (as depicted in Genesis and in the stories of the Resurrection); and he makes a very telling point when he argues for the importance of ‘fostering dialogue between the disciplines that prioritise narrative’ (p.85), and particularly that economy is not just an autonomous process, but is embedded in social interaction. This fits neatly into the mood of Jesus’s parables about money, as opposed to the NL teaching, whereby ‘the profit is exported and the risk imported’ (p.96). Even for those of us who know nothing of economics, this is a most alarming chapter, pointing as it does to the sheer irrationality of human greed, and the horrifying closeness of corrupt bankers to those in government. This is not just a story about Ireland, of course, but Hargaden makes an important point, that can find a home in other settings also, when he comments, ‘What is curious about the corruption of the Irish elite is how...

Assessing the Importance of Energy Sector Using the Expanding Extraction Method: Iranian Economy

Assessing the Importance of Energy Sector Using the Expanding Extraction Method: Iranian Economy