IPAT Equation Research Articles

Paul R.EhrlichLife: A Journey through Science and PoliticsYale University Press, 2023, 395 p., $30.00

Paul R.EhrlichLife: A Journey through Science and PoliticsYale University Press, 2023, 395 p., $30.00

Analysis of Farm Household Livelihood Sustainability Based on Improved IPAT Equation: A Case Study of 24 Counties in 3 Cities in the Qin-Ba Mountain Region of Southern Shaanxi

Sustainable livelihoods are those that are able to cope with and recover from stress and shocks, and that maintain or strengthen livelihood capacity and livelihood capital, without damaging the foundations of the natural environment. In this paper, the IPHACT framework was constructed by improving the classic IPAT equation, and the key factors affecting production output and livelihood sustainability, as well as the factor differences among different livelihood strategy groups, were analyzed. We took 24 counties and districts of Ankang, Shangluo and Hanzhong in the Qin-Ba Mountain area of southern Shaanxi Province as examples, using a survey of farmers’ livelihood status and livelihood capital accounting. The results show that the amplification effect of population size on the environmental impact of livelihood output is widespread and generally significant. Both livelihood sustainability and livelihood benefit passed the significance test in the multi-model analysis, and the negative effect of livelihood sustainability proved the negative correlation between the environmental impact of livelihood output and livelihood sustainability, that is, the higher the livelihood output dependent on natural capital, the greater the environmental impact. The livelihood transformation of Hanzhong City is developing in the direction of reducing the environmental impact of livelihood output, and farmers have successfully practiced green livelihood transformation by changing their livelihood strategies. On the road to common prosperity, livelihood demand will inevitably increase. Reducing the dependence on natural capital is the key to effectively enhancing the sustainability of livelihoods.

Population density regulation may mitigate the imbalance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration

The growing imbalance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration is impeding cities’ sustainability. However, previous research has not reached a consensus on whether population density regulation can mitigate this growing imbalance. In this study, we first used the carbon footprint pressure (CFP) indicator to examine the temporal and spatial characteristics of the imbalance in 370 Chinese cities over the last 20 years. Second, we demonstrated the favorable but limited effect of existing technology on CFP mitigation using the IPAT equation, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition approach, and the Kaya identity. Further, we emphasized the dominant effect of the population on CFP in urban agglomerations and provincial capital cities through Maxwell's triangle. Finally, using a built panel data model, we identified an inverted U-curve relationship between CFP and population density at the middle and low quartiles, whereas population clustering promoted CFP mitigation at the upper quartiles. Given the limited effectiveness of current climate actions, as well as the coexistence of urban diseases and unoccupied buildings, we provided differentiated policy implications in city-scale for population density regulation. This study provides some inspiration for authorities to formulate city-scale population policies to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development.

Evaluating the IPAT formula in Greece over the 1960-2019 period with respect to CO2 emissions

The IPAT formula attempts to evaluate the impact of human activity on the environment. Considering specifically the total emissions of carbon dioxide (greenhouse gas) as the impact of human activity on the environment, the IPAT equation takes the particular form of the Kaya identity proposed by Yoichi Kaya in 1993. This paper adopts the Tapio decoupling approach and explores the underlying factors, through a Kaya identity formulation, that have driven the evolution of CO2 emissions in Greece from 1960 to 2019, which is a rather long period of time. The study evaluates the contribution of each factor of the Kaya identity over time to the shaping of CO2 emissions over time in Greece. Results could be helpful for the implementation of proper strategies focusing in mitigating CO2 emissions without hindering the economic growth process in Greece.

Further mitigating carbon footprint pressure in urban agglomeration by enhancing the spatial clustering

The increasing environmental pressure of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is impeding the sustainability of urban agglomerations (UAs). Recent research has shown that the spatial clustering of UA elements reduces CO2 emissions but underestimates its impact on vegetation carbon sequestration. Using an extended IPAT equation analysis framework and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition approach, this study revealed the positive effects of the economy and population spatial clustering on carbon footprint pressure (CFP) mitigation. Specifically, improving economic spatial clustering mitigated the rise in UA's CFP caused by affluence and population growth. Furthermore, population clustering in core cities effectively mitigated CFP in neighboring cities. Additionally, we found that the efficiency improvement, i.e., the decrease in the ratio of carbon emissions and gross domestic product, should be the dominant driver of CFP mitigation, followed by improved vegetation carbon sequestration. However, these drivers have limited future potential. We believe that by improving UA's spatial clustering of the economy and population, future urban environmental pressures and climate risks will be mitigated.

Drivers for decoupling carbon footprint pressure from economic growth in China’s provinces

A growing imbalance between energy carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration is a major impediment to achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Decoupling the growing imbalance from economic growth needs a stringent and coordinated package of sustainable policies. Previously, enhancing efficiency and vegetation carbon sequestration were dominant drivers to decouple. However, the role and magnitude of restructurings in the energy sector and economy in decoupling were underestimated. In this context, China’s 30 provinces were selected as study areas. By employing a carbon footprint pressure (CFP) indicator to represent the imbalance, a widely decoupling method was adopted to describe the decoupling state and trend of CFP and economic growth. An extended IPAT equation and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method were further used to reveal the role and magnitude of drivers on decoupling. The findings revealed that the CFP climbed significantly in 26 provinces between 2006 and 2015. We discovered that 22 provinces were working toward absolute decoupling, with 15 provinces achieving it during the 12-th Five-Year Plan. Our analysis revealed that improving energy efficiency was the primary driver of absolute decoupling, while substituting natural gas and oil for coal, reducing industry share, and enhancing carbon sequestration accelerated absolute decoupling. Considering the limited future role of improving energy efficiency and vegetation carbon sequestration, there is an urgent need to optimize and upgrade the structures of the energy sector and economy to mitigate the future climate risk.

Abundance Against Scarcity

Abundance Against Scarcity

Synergistic Effect of Carbon Trading Scheme on Carbon Dioxide and Atmospheric Pollutants

To estimate the synergistic emission reduction effect resulting from carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilots launched in 2013, this study estimated the synergistic emission reduction relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) and atmospheric pollutants, consisting of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), dust pollutants (Dust) and particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5). Using the extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and the IPAT equation, the synergistic emission reduction effect was decomposed into direct and indirect categories driven by energy efficiency, economic development and industrial structure. Moreover, the synergistic emission reduction effect of ETS pilots was quantified with the difference-in-differences method (DID) and propensity score matching difference-in-differences method (PSM-DID). The results show that, from 2013 to 2016, CO2 and atmospheric pollutants achieved emission reduction synergistically through ETS, among which the synergistic emission reduction effect between CO2 and SO2 was most significant. Compared with the direct category, the indirect category accounted for smaller proportion of the synergistic emission reduction effect. The combined action of energy efficiency and industrial structure has a potential positive influence on synergistic emission reduction effect of ETS. Consequently, this suggests that the government needs to develop the domestic carbon market further, improve energy efficiency and optimize industrial structure to promote synergistic emission reduction.

Econometric analysis of IPAT-e: A new tool for the environmental impact assessment of publicly traded companies

• IPAT-e is an environmental impact indicator, derived from the IPAT equation. • The econometric analysis confirms the applicability of the IPAT-e equation. • The IPAT-e is an efficient indicator of the company's environmental impact. • The index can subsidize environmental monitoring bodies.

Driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon footprint pressure in China: Based on net primary production

Global warming has rapidly become a problem that is threatening human survival. To meet China's commitments under the Paris Agreement to limit carbon emission intensity, an in-depth study of the driving factors of China's carbon footprint and its decoupling from gross domestic product (GDP) is needed. In this study, the carbon footprint pressure (CFP) index is constructed using the ratio of the carbon source to the carbon sink. We use the IPAT equation and logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method to analyze the driving factors of China's CFP from 2000 to 2017 and measure the temporal and spatial changes of the decoupling state between CFP and GDP. The results show that from 2000 to 2017, the changes in China's CFP mainly undergo two stages: high growth in the early stage and gradual flattening in the latter stage. Economic growth is the mainly responsible for CFP growth, while technological progress is the main driving factor of CFP decline. Population growth and vegetation quality improvement have positive and negative effects on CFP, respectively. China is in a transition stage between the weak and strong decoupling of CFP and economic growth. In 2017, China's carbon emission intensity has been reported to be approximately 59% lower than in 2005, and the growth rate of China's carbon emissions has been near zero since 2014, which indicates that China is expected to achieve part of the emission reduction target (60–65%) proposed in the Paris Agreement by 2030.

An empirical investigation of nuclear energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in India: Bridging IPAT and EKC hypotheses

The transition toward clean energy is an issue of great importance with growing debate in climate change mitigation. The complex nature of nuclear energy-CO2 emissions nexus makes it difficult to predict whether or not nuclear acts as a clean energy source. Hence, we examined the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the context of the IPAT and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. Dynamic Auto-regressive Distributive Lag (DARDL), a newly modified econometric tool, is employed for estimation of long- and short-run dynamics by using yearly data spanning from 1971 to 2018. The empirical findings of the study revealed an instantaneous increase in nuclear energy reduces environmental pollution, which highlights that more nuclear energy power in the Indian energy system would be beneficial for climate change mitigation. The results further demonstrate that the overarching effect of population density in the IPAT equation stimulates carbon emissions. Finally, nuclear energy and population density contribute to form the EKC curve. To achieving a cleaner environment, results point out governmental policies toward the transition of nuclear energy that favours environmental sustainability.

Energy and CO<SUB align="right">2 emissions in the Gulf Cooperation Council region

This paper evaluates the factors that cause environmental contamination in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region through carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The paper conducts qualitative analysis by focusing on the IPAT equation and quantitative analysis using panel data methods. The results of the qualitative analysis show that political factors, such as wars and unrest, affect the environmental quality in the GCC region. The results of comparative static analysis show that the increase in population, GDP, and energy production increase CO2 emissions. Through panel regression methods, we fail to reject the null hypotheses as suggested by the comparative static analysis, hence the paper concludes that population, GDP, and energy supply cause environmental pollution in the GCC region.

Environmental impact of mining-associated carbon emissions and analysis of cleaner production strategies in China.

In recent years, concern has been increasing regarding the carbon emissions generated by mining activities. China is an extremely large coal producer (3695 Mt/2015) and consumer (3698 Mt/2015), and Shanxi Province (i.e., a major coal-producing province in China) is a crucial element in China's energy conservation and emission reduction goals. In this study, the Pingshuo mining area (PMA) in Shanxi Province was chosen as a case to analyze the dynamic changes in carbon emissions based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method, and the factors influencing carbon emissions were analyzed via the IPAT equation. Carbon emission sources in opencast mines mainly included fuel and explosive use, coal mine methane escape, coal and gangue spontaneous combustion, and electricity consumption. The carbon emission of the PMA increased from 4 × 104Mg in 1986 to 1.05 × 106Mg in 2015, with an average annual increase of 11.64%. In the PMA, 4.71 × 106Mg of carbon emissions from fuel consumption accounted for 41.79% of carbon emissions, and 5.26 × 106Mg of carbon emissions from methane emissions accounted for 46.66%. Carbon emissions from explosives and electricity use were 4.1 × 105Mg and 8.8 × 105Mg, respectively. In this mining area, the factors influencing carbon emissions included population, GDP, and coal output. The results of this study not only provide a reference for cleaner production in mining areas but also lay a foundation for the study of global opencast coal mining carbon emissions.

Driving factors of global carbon footprint pressure: Based on vegetation carbon sequestration

Carbon sequestration capacity of vegetation plays an important role in global carbon emission reduction. Based on vegetation carbon sequestration, this paper establishes a carbon footprint pressure index to evaluate the carbon footprint pressure in 60 sample countries, and discusses the driving factors that influence carbon footprint pressure in various countries through IPAT equation and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition approach. The results indicate that the global carbon footprint pressure shows an upward trend from 2000 to 2015, mainly owing to population growth and rapid socioeconomic development; technological progress has a certain inhibitory effect on the rise of carbon footprint pressure. Furthermore, the overall carbon footprint pressure in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries shows a downward trend, while the carbon footprint pressure in non-OECD countries is rising, even exceeding the economic growth rate, which is probably related to the transfer of a large number of implied carbon emissions from OECD countries to non-OECD countries.

Material use and resource efficiency of African sub-regions

Abstract Material flow analysis is one of the developed tools to analyze regional resource utilization and efficiency, but still, no holistic analysis has been done for African sub-regions. Africa and its sub-regions are experiencing a gradual but transitional development, leading to the steady growth of resource use. This study dived into African nations’ material flow accounts and conducted a statistical evaluation of material use, resource efficiency and driving forces in different sub-regions of Africa between 1980 and 2017 to investigate resource use patterns in Africa. Our results reveal significant disparities of material use and distinguishable driving forces at the sub-regional level of Africa. During the last four decades, Western and Central Africa shows the highest cumulative material consumption at 54 Gt dominated by biomass consumption, while non-metallic minerals dominate the consumption in North Africa with a compounding annual growth rate of 4.5 %. Per capita domestic material consumption (DMC) in Southern Africa experiences a declining trend from >10 t/capita to 7 t/capita per year. Per capita DMC in other three sub-regions is increasing, in which North Africa now has the highest per capita DMC at 10 t/capita per year. Using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) technique, this study examines the IPAT equation in DMC at the sub-regional level of Africa. GDP growth has surpassed the impact of population growth in Southern Africa, while population growth is still the most significant driver in other three regions over a period of time. Technological factors have begun to offset material use in all sub-regions since 2000, and this offset is prominent in Southern Africa. Our results could be a basis to spur mutual communication and cooperation among African countries on the governance of sustainable resource production and use to improve the resource efficiency of African countries as a convergent and lasting trend.

Dynamic Assessment of Construction Materials in Urban Building Stocks: A Critical Review.

There is a lack of understanding on the different types of dynamics of building stocks, in real life and in models. Moreover, there is now a particular interest in the embodied impacts of construction materials, since with the increasing efficiency of buildings operation, embodied impacts gain more importance in the overall building life cycle. This critical review wants to advance the understanding of the type of dynamics, methods, and tools used. The well-known IPAT equation is adapted for building stocks and three dynamics are defined: spatial, evolutionary temporal, and spatial-cohort dynamic. A framework is defined that can help researchers choose a method, tool, and dynamics of input parameters depending on their research goal, case study, and data. Moreover, generally valid conclusions are drawn, including MFA is useful to model spatially dynamic material flows; GIS is needed to include spatial dynamics. Retrofit, compared to construction and demolition, is understudied and usually analyzed through top-down methods. Material intensity and emission intensity are rarely modeled in a dynamic way. Overall, scholars seem to perform increasingly data intensive and complex studies tailored to a specific case study. However, there are big differences in the quality depending on the dynamic of input parameters.

Impact of population growth on Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission: empirical evidence from Nigeria

This paper seeks to examine the impact of population growth on carbon dioxide emission in Nigeria. Time series data from 1975 to 2016 was adopted. Variables such as population, affluence and technology were used as independent variables which were extracted from the IPAT equation. Econometric tools such as Ordinary Least Squares were adopted. The findings show that there is a positive association between CO2 emission, population and technology whereas affluence has a negative relationship with CO2. The study concluded that the population growth has a marginal impact on the level of CO2 emission. The paper recommended that there is need for the government to adopt a climate friendly technology that will minimize the increasing CO2 emission, improve on its GDP alongside controlling her population growth.

New indicator for measuring the environmental sustainability of publicly traded companies: An innovation for the IPAT approach

The present study aimed to present a conceptual and practical overview of IPAT and a remodeling of the indicator, making it applicable to publicly traded companies as a new methodology to measure their environmental performance through the IPAT-e indicator, constituting information to support investment decisions in stock exchanges. The new approach, here called IPAT-e, consists of adapting the IPAT equation for its application to the business environment, allowing to measure the degree of sustainability of companies, considering their impact from their water consumption, atmospheric emissions, effluents emissions, energy consumption and solid waste generation. Companies part of the corporate sustainability (ISE) and the efficient carbon (ICO2) indices of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&FBovespa) are the objects of this study. Data were collected after ICO2 came into effect in 2010 and comprised the period from 2010 to 2015. In this criterion, seven companies were selected: Braskem, BR Food, Fibria, Klabin, Natura, Suzano and Vale. The index was effective in assessing production technological efficiency, allowing to identify which variables were causing impact over a period. That, associated with elasticity calculation, allowed analyzing the influence of production on variables that caused impact, depending on the degree of technology adopted by the company.

A simple endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility and environmental concern

AbstractWe analyze the implications of endogenous fertility choices on both economic and environmental performances in a stylized AK‐type growth model. Differently from what traditionally assumed in the growth and environment literature, we allow pollution to be not only a by‐product of productive activities by firms but also a result of households’ behavior, as suggested by the celebrated IPAT equation. We show that along the balanced growth path equilibrium, economic growth may be non‐monotonically related to the population growth rate as agents care for the environment; moreover, demographic policies can be used both to achieve win‐win outcomes (simultaneously fostering economic growth and improving environmental quality) and to stabilize the otherwise non‐monotonic economic and population growth relationship.

Impact analysis of the implementation of cleaner production for achieving the low-carbon transition for SMEs in the Inner Mongolian coal industry

At present, carbon emissions produced by coal consumption have raised concerns around the world, but the carbon emissions associated with coal production should also be considered. As China's second-largest province for coal production, it is of extreme importance around the whole country for small and medium-sized coal enterprises in Inner Mongolia to achieve low-carbon transition.In this paper, we apply the IPAT equation to analyze the relationships among environmental impact, population, affluence and technology. The results of the analysis show that technological innovation can make an environmental impact or can cause pollutant emissions of a unit GDP to decline. Technological innovation is viewed as an avenue for environmental improvement, and corporate entities are key players in the environmental improvement. This equation can also be used indirectly on the micro-scale, for example, to determine the directions of development of enterprises and encourage the enterprises to achieve low-carbon transition as soon as possible. Selecting the example of a surface coal mine in Inner Mongolia (China) under the framework of cleaner production and the theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ), cleaner production options helping to reduce carbon emissions were proposed and implemented. Through the implementation of the options, carbon emissions of the coal mine were reduced by approximately 4%. Contributing cleaner production options for reducing carbon emissions mainly include increasing the efficiency of energy usage, substitution of environmentally friendly materials, optimization of process controls and changing process technologies. The results obtained in this paper can not only provide a decision-making foundation for the local governments when they invest in carbon reduction projects but also play an exemplary role for other similar enterprises to reduce carbon emissions.