Investment In Forest Management Research Articles

Forecasting hotspots of forest clearing in Kakamega Forest, Western Kenya

Kakamega Forest is the last remaining rainforest in Kenya and the easternmost remnant of the Guinean-Congolian rainforest belt. As such, it is home to a large number of endemic fauna and flora species. Yet the remaining natural forest is under imminent threat of degradation due to a rapidly growing population in its vicinity and a poverty rate far above the national average. The growing demand for forest resources and ecosystem services will continue to exert great pressure on the remaining forest fragments. In this paper, we predict future hotspots of forest clearing of the remaining natural and old-growth secondary forest in Kakamega Forest. We parameterized an artificial neural network model using resilient backpropagation to simulate the likelihood of forest clearing for each location. Input variables into the network included historic information on forest clearings together with variables capturing the status of forest protection, accessibility to roads and markets, as well as topography and forest density. Simulation results were used to predict future clearings based on observed rates of change. Hotspots of forest clearing were derived by assessing the neighborhood density of predicted clearings. Our results indicate that forest clearings occurred across all forest fragments. Hotspots of future forest clearing tended to occur near roads and market centers. Most future hotspots were found in areas with a lower protection status, where some forest use is allowed. But our model also predicted considerable pressure on remaining old-growth forest resources in the strictly protected National Reserve. Our predictions of deforestation hotspots contribute to a better geographic targeting of nature protection activities and forest management investments in Kakamega Forest. Thus, it will hopefully help policy makers and land managers to strike a balance between satisfying the needs of local livelihoods and preserving the unique ecological values of Kakamega Forest for future generations.

Modeling wildfire risk to northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat in Central Oregon, USA

Natural disturbances including wildfire, insects and disease are a growing threat to the remaining late successional forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA. These forests are a cornerstone of the region's ecological diversity and provide essential habitat to a number of rare terrestrial and aquatic species including the endangered northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina). Wildfires in particular have reduced the amount of late successional forests over the past decade, prompting land managers to expand investments in forest management in an attempt to slow losses and mitigate wildfire risk. Much of the emphasis is focused specifically on late successional reserves established under the Northwest Forest Plan to provide habitat for spotted owls. In this paper, we demonstrate a probabilistic risk analysis system for quantifying wildfire threats to spotted owl habitat and comparing the efficacy of fuel treatment scenarios. We used wildfire simulation methods to calculate spatially explicit probabilities of habitat loss for fuel treatment scenarios on a 70,245 ha study area in Central Oregon, USA. We simulated 1000 wildfires with randomly located ignitions and weather conditions that replicated a recent large fire within the study area. A flame length threshold for each spotted owl habitat stand was determined using the forest vegetation simulator and used to predict the proportion of fires that resulted in habitat loss. Wildfire modeling revealed a strong spatial pattern in burn probability created by natural fuel breaks (lakes and lava flows). We observed a non-linear decrease in the probability of habitat loss with increasing treatment area. Fuels treatments on a relatively minor percentage of the forested landscape (20%) resulted in a 44% decrease in the probability of spotted owl habitat loss averaged over all habitat stands. The modeling system advances the application of quantitative and probabilistic risk assessment for habitat and species conservation planning.

Population Growth, Urban Expansion, and Private Forestry in Western Oregon

Abstract Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the “wildland/urban interface” is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands as productive socioeconomic and ecological resources. Prevailing hypotheses suggest that such forestlands can become less productive, because forest owners reduce investments in forest management. We develop empirical models describing forest stocking, thinning, harvest, and tree planting in western Oregon, as functions of stand and site characteristics, ownership, and building densities. We use the models to examine the potential impacts of population growth and urban expansion, as described by increasing building densities, on the likelihood that forest owners maintain forest stocking, precommercial thin, harvest, and plant trees following harvest. Empirical results support the general conclusion that population growth and urban expansion are correlated with reduced forest management and investment on private forestlands in western Oregon (USA). Results have potential implications for both economic outputs and ecological conditions, as well as for wildfire risks at the wildland/urban interface. FOR. SCI. 50(1):33–43.

Migration and Incomes in Source Communities: A New Economics of Migration Perspective from China

The objective of this paper is to understand the effects of China’s migration on source communities and to discuss their policy implications. We draw from New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory to understand how migration and migrant remittances can relax or tighten market constraints in China’s rural economy. Using simultaneous-equation econometric techniques and household survey data from China, we estimate net, sectorspecific effects of migration on rural household income, focusing on farm production and self-employment. Our econometric findings indicate that the loss of labor to migration has a negative effect on household cropping income in source areas. However, we provide evidence that remittances sent home by migrants positively compensate for this lost-labor effect, contributing to household incomes directly and indirectly by stimulating crop and possibly self-employment production. This finding offers evidence in support of the NELM hypothesis that remittances loosen constraints on production in the imperfect-market environments characterizing rural areas in less developed countries. Taking into account both the multiple effects of migration and the change in household size, participating in migration increases household per-capita income between 14 and 30 percent. Migration and Incomes in Source Communities: A New Economics of Migration Perspective from China China is experiencing the largest peacetime flow of labor out of agriculture ever witnessed in world history (Solinger, 1999; Rozelle et al., 1999). Despite the rapid expansion of labor migration, China’s work force is still disproportionately employed in agriculture compared to other countries at similar levels of per-capita GDP (Taylor and Martin, 2001). Hence, as China’s economy continues to expand, the flow of labor to urban areas will continue and even accelerate (Johnson, 1999). The massive flow of labor away from farms has intensified research interest in China’s migration in recent years. However, as in the broader literature on migration in less developed countries, most recent studies on China’s migration have focused on determining the size and composition of the labor flow, macroeconomic implications of increased migration, and the effects of migration on urban areas (Zhao, 1999; Yang, 1999; 1997). Less emphasis has been placed on researching the effects of migration on the rural communities that migrants leave, even though evidence shows that the rural household in the village of origin is typically the central concern of all those involved in migration– both those who leave and those who stay behind (exceptions include Wang and Zuo, 1999; Bai, 2001). Moreover, the recent increase in migration has left policy makers particularly concerned regarding the way source communities will be affected (MOA, 1999). They are concerned that as labor flows away from farms, food production and crop income will decline, potentially threatening China’s food security. Furthermore, policy makers are concerned about the increasing gap between urban and rural household incomes. If migration exacerbates this gap, some fear that as it grows rural residents eventually will flood cities ill-equipped to absorb them. Others fear that discontent over a rising urban-rural income gap could even spill over into political unrest (Yang, 1999). Because China’s markets and other modern economic institutions are still relatively undeveloped, migration may play a pivotal role in creating or overcoming constraints caused by the lack of well-functioning markets and/or institutions (Knight and Song, 1999; Benjamin and Brandt, 2000). The “new economics of labor migration” (NELM) literature analyzes migration as a household decision rather than as an individual decision (Stark, 1991). The NELM hypothesizes that rural households facing imperfect market environments decide

The Advantages of Equal Income Tax Rates for All Businesses

Abstract Society of American Foresters position statements on income taxes have historically advocated federal tax policies that encourage forest management investment. This paper recommends a different approach, based on the economic theory that from a financial view economies tend to be most efficient if taxes are evenhanded and no less discouraging to one type of investment than to another. The analysis points out problems in justifying lower tax rates for timber production than for other ventures.

The effects of factor supply assumptions on intertemporal timber supply behavior: the cases of investable funds and land

Intertemporal timber supply models typically assume perfect capital markets and perfectly inelastic supplies of land. Using a dynamic model of U.S. timber and agriculture markets, we examine (i) borrowing limits or capital constraints, in which investment in forest management on nonindustrial private ownerships is restricted, and (ii) a nonzero elasticity of land supply. Results suggest that alternative treatments of supply conditions for these factors influence the flexibility of the simulated market system to adapt to changes over time and across policy scenarios. Supply restrictions limit adjustment options in management activities and force greater change in other endogenous elements such as price and consumption. Implications drawn from any policy analyses also differ with input supply assumptions. Policy impacts were found to be largely transitory in the cases without investment limits and essentially permanent when limits exist. Recognizing a price-sensitive land supply, at least as this process is represented in the present model, partially compensates for the imposition of borrowing restrictions, moving projections closer to behavior observed in the perfect capital market cases. Access to additional land as potential afforestation investments provides additional private investment flexibility. Typically, however, this linkage is neither explicit nor endogenous in forest sector models.

Evaluating Forest Management Investments: The Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Income Growth Model

Abstract This article combines an Income Growth Model (IGM) with a nominal and real Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to evaluate two alternative management regimes using a simulation of two fully regulated Pacific Northwest ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) plantations. The IGM can be used to estimate the cost of capital for nonpublicly traded firms. The IGM was used to estimate a real cost of capital to value the land and timber inventory of the forestry assets. The simulation highlights five findings: (1) the results, both nominal and real, showed that a thinning investment did not reduce financial variability as measured by the beta index of the CAPM; (2) the beta indices indicate the returns to the forestry assets examined were insensitive to nominal or real changes in returns of the market portfolio; (3) a majority of the total variability of the two forestry asset's returns is diversifiable; (4) the forestry assets examined were identified as inferior inflation hedges; and (5) there was no statistical difference between the nominal and real beta indices of the forestry assets examined. Ex post data (particularly market proxy data) cannot prove that the nonthinning regime is ex ante more financially sound, although these results suggest strongly that it is. For. Sci. 37(6):1591-1604.

Tenure effects on forest management investment

Study of the investment behaviour of a tenure-holding forestry firm in Canada has policy implications and is, therefore, important. Investment by a firm in establishing a plant was analyzed in an earlier issue (June 1986) of this journal. In this paper, the firm's investment in the management of Crown forest lands is investigated. The impacts of tenure conditions, taxation, and technological progress have been analyzed. Tenure insecurity has been found to be only partly responsible for a firm's less than enthusiastic behaviour regarding investment in forest management. Long rotation is by far the single most important factor inhibiting expenditure on forest management inputs. A judicious mixture of tenure and taxation regulations can be used as a policy instrument for encouraging intensive forest management. Anticipation of even very modest secular increases in profits due to technological progress can make intensive forestry a desirable economic activity.

A proxy for investment in forest management

Figures on dollar amounts invested in non-industrial private forests are not easily available, but such information is necessary to quantify long-term timber supply elasticities. A method for finding a proxy variable for the number of dollars invested in the management of these forests, unique up to a linear transformation, is presented and tested. The method is based on ordinary forest inventories which are used to estimate actual current growth. The ratio of current growth to potential growth derived from site specific standard yield functions for a given management intensity level is shown to be a justifiable proxy for investment made in previous periods, provided certain assumptions are made. The validity of those assumptions is confirmed by empirically testing a cross-section of small forests in Norway.

Economic Opportunities for Investments in Forest Management in the Southern United States

Abstract There are investment opportunities on 88 million acres of southern forestlands that offer financial rates of return competitively. Some of these investments will yield positive rates of return above inflation even if declining stumpage prices are projected. These investment opportunities include stocking control, stand conversion, and harvesting and regeneration of mature stands.

De la nécessité d'un inventaire forestier écologique

To meet our growing needs for wood products will require several million dollars of investment in forest management without assured success, unless we have an appropriate knowledge of forest ecosystems.This paper proposes a simple approach to laying down an "ecological" forest map. Physical habitats which can be related to landform, position on the slope, drainage, etc., within an ecological region, are mapped with their actual stands. This approach leads to a rapid classification and mapping of the different forest ecosystems. It is then possible to work out different chronological sequences or seres by relating the stands occupying similar habitats. Knowledge of seres and of actual stand allows the manager to foresee the evolution of a particular stand. In the same way, by the integrated mapping of forest stands and physical habitats, results of sylvicultural treatments can be related to habitat factors, and subsequently can be applied to similar ecosystems.Added costs of mapping data relative to habitats are rapidly compensated by avoiding costly management errors. Furthermore, the supplementary exercise of determining the habitat increases the precision of photo interpretation for stand mapping. The cost is also compensated by the fact that map contours are permanent since they are based on natural and stable features. Only vegetation data will have to be brought up to date periodically.

Private Investment in Forest Management and the Long‐Term Supply of Timber

AbstractTimber supply behavior of private forest owners is a major uncertainty in long‐term forest product market projections. A model of private supply is developed that explains both harvest and forest management investment decisions. Comparison of two fifty‐year projections, one assuming constant management intensity and a second using the harvest‐investment model, indicates that projected levels of investment would (a) have little impact on markets prior to the year 2000, (b) stabilize real wood product prices after 2000, (c) eliminate softwood lumber imports by 2030, and (d) expand the dominant role of southern forest regions in wood product markets.