Investments In Energy Systems Research Articles

Equity-driven investments in community energy systems: an optimization model applied to Washington State

Equity-driven investments in community energy systems: an optimization model applied to Washington State

Mineral resources and equitable economic development: South Asian mineral resources policy perspective with innovation for resources efficiency

In the contemporary era, economies are heavily relying on minerals extraction, where the literature offers ambiguous evidence regarding minerals-growth nexus. To solve the puzzle, this research inspects the empirical association between mineral resources and economic prosperity in the South Asian nations from 1988 to 2022. This study also scrutinizes the importance of financial development, remittances, renewable energy use, and technological innovation. The research utilizes a panel dataset and applies the normality, stationarity, and cointegration tests. The results validates non-normal data distribution, stationarity of variables, and existence of long-run equilibrium association between them. To tackle non-normality and structural break issues, panel quantile regression and structural break ordinary least squares (OLS), are used. The study's results emphasize that mineral rents and remittances harm economic growth, indicating the poor outcomes associated with excessive dependence on external sources income. On the other hand, the factors identified as key drivers of sustainable economic expansion include financial progress, the use of green energy, and technical innovation. The results are tested for robustness via dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and canonical cointegration regression. This research recommends the significance of diversified revenue sources, fostering financial expansion, and making investments in renewable energy systems. To create more equitable growth, policymakers must focus on improved R&D and financial inclusion.

Renewable exergy return on investment (RExROI) in energy systems. The case of silicon photovoltaic panels

The ongoing energy transition towards renewable sources faces reliance on fossil fuels throughout their life cycle, primarily due to mining and material production for infrastructure. This study proposes the Renewable Exergy Return on Investment (RExROI) metric, which quantifies the renewable exergy obtained from each unit of non-renewable exergy invested in energy systems. It can be seen as a Renewation Index, applicable to any energy production system, indicating the degree of renewability of such technologies. Focused on silicon photovoltaic panels, the study explores five material intensities, nine scenarios based on the capacity factor and lifespan, and two alternatives for electricity used in the manufacture. Results show that material intensity increases RExROI from −0.6 MJ/MJ (non-renewable exergy is higher than electricity produced) to 5.7 MJ/MJ, increasing until 19 MJ/MJ with the best location and lifespan, and reaching 34 MJ/MJ if renewable electricity is used in manufacturing. Thus, carbon intensity can range from 734 to 7 gCO2eq/kWh. Furthermore, some strategies to enhance RExROI are discussed based on the (i) energy sources, (ii) materials, and (iii) production stages of photovoltaic panels. Thus, this study demonstrates the usefulness of RExROI in evaluating the energy-material-emission nexus of energy systems through exergy in the context of energy transition.

Future of District Heating Systems – Investigation of Various Technologies in Danish Context

In response to the urgent need for decarbonization, district heating (DH) systems must explore emission-reducing investments that simultaneously lower operational costs of the plant. The recent years with wildly fluctuating gas and electricity prices put even more emphasis on finding the optimal combination of generation units for DH systems. This article aims at investigating which of the available technologies are the future of district heating. Solar collectors, photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines and their combinations with other technologies are considered. The analysis is done based on Assens District Heating located in Funen, Denmark, where the annual heat production is approximately 96 000 MWh. The plant has already invested in an East-West oriented PV plant and a heat pump. However, for the purpose of this paper, an assumption is made that this investment can be redone based on the present investment costs in Denmark. The analysis is made in the energy system analysis tool energyPRO, where different combinations of technologies are analyzed. The study investigates the operational and investments costs, looking into the influence on Net Heat Production Cost (NHPC) and quantifying the investment yearly benefit. The results demonstrate profitability and feasibility of integrating renewable energy resources into district heating systems within the Danish context. The ambition is to showcase the possibilities and provide decision makers with insight into robust investments in renewable energy systems. Furthermore, by highlighting the success and potential of renewable energy integration in district heating systems in Denmark, this study aims to inspire further research and innovation in the field in other European countries, where the DH systems are primarily based on fossil fuels.

Decomposition methods for multi-horizon stochastic programming

Multi-horizon stochastic programming includes short-term and long-term uncertainty in investment planning problems more efficiently than traditional multi-stage stochastic programming. In this paper, we exploit the block separable structure of multi-horizon stochastic linear programming, and establish that it can be decomposed by Benders decomposition and Lagrangean decomposition. In addition, we propose parallel Lagrangean decomposition with primal reduction that, (1) solves the scenario subproblems in parallel, (2) reduces the primal problem by keeping one copy for each scenario group at each stage, and (3) solves the reduced primal problem in parallel. We apply the parallel Lagrangean decomposition with primal reduction, Lagrangean decomposition and Benders decomposition to solve a stochastic energy system investment planning problem. The computational results show that: (a) the Lagrangean type decomposition algorithms have better convergence at the first iterations to Benders decomposition, and (b) parallel Lagrangean decomposition with primal reduction is very efficient for solving multi-horizon stochastic programming problems. Based on the computational results, the choice of algorithms for multi-horizon stochastic programming is discussed.

Performance analysis of the comprehensive energy system based on active energy storage-discharge technology under time-sharing electricity price operation strategy

Multi-energy complementary comprehensive energy systems based on renewable energy can reliably meet the energy needs of communities and significantly mitigate carbon emissions. This is of paramount significance in the establishment of low-carbon sustainable communities. The effective operation of an integrated energy system necessitates a thorough examination of demand-side load, the dynamic performance of the energy supply system, the configuration of energy storage systems, local electricity pricing policies, and operational or control strategies for the system. It confronts substantial challenges in practical application. Considering the noteworthy performance variations of comprehensive energy systems under diverse demand-side load, fluctuating electricity prices, and various operating modes of energy storage equipment, this paper initially conducts a practical analysis of demand-side load. A comprehensive energy system with multi-energy complementary based on source-load-storage coordination (SLS-CES) model was constructed. From the perspective of system operation strategy, we identify the current electricity consumption pattern in the region, characterized by peak and valley periods. We integrate this information with the time-of-use electricity pricing policy and the equipment within the target area. An operation strategy based on local time-of-use electricity price policy was proposed. An in-depth analysis of the thermal performance, environmental performance, and economic performance of the system in the full-year dimension and typical daily dimension under this operating strategy was conducted. The results show that under this operation strategy, the system's annual net income is 415.90 thousand yuan, of which the system's energy storage battery power supply revenue during peak period reaches 254.40 thousand yuan. The initial investment is 5.03 million yuan, and the static investment payback period is 12.09 years. The annual primary energy saving rate of the system is 36.00%, and the maximum CO2 emission reduction rate is 72.23%. The maximum primary energy saving rates on typical days in winter and typical days in summer are 74.74% and 97.14% respectively. The total annual CO2 emissions were reduced by 5.47 tons and 4.54 tons respectively. Through this study, we found that a system incorporating energy storage equipment, combined with an operation strategy based on electricity price policy, can yield additional economic benefits. This approach helps alleviate peak power supply pressure on the grid and mitigates the challenges associated with the high initial investment in renewable energy systems, all while maintaining good thermal performance and environmental benefits.

Investment-based optimisation of energy storage design parameters in a grid-connected hybrid renewable energy system

Grid-connected hybrid renewable power systems with energy storage can reduce the intermittency of renewable power supply. However, emerging energy storage technologies need improvement to compete with lithium-ion batteries and reduce the cost of energy. Identifying and optimising the most valuable improvement path of these technologies is challenging due to the non-linearity of the energy system model when considering parameters as independent variables. To overcome this challenge, a novel investment-based optimisation method is proposed. The method involves linear optimisation of the hybrid renewable energy system and subsequent investment optimisation, accounting for diminishing improvements per investment. The results from applying the investment-based optimisation to thermal energy, pumped thermal energy, molten salt, and adiabatic compressed air energy storage technologies, show that improving the discharge efficiency is the most valuable for all technologies. The second most important parameters are the costs of discharge capacity and energy storage capacity, and the least important parameters are the charge capacity cost and charge efficiency. The study provides detailed improvement pathways for each technology under various operational conditions, assisting developers in resource allocation. Overall, the investment-based optimisation method and findings contribute to enhancing the competitiveness of emerging energy storage technologies and reducing reliance on batteries in renewable energy systems.

Assessing the risk management-based impact relation map of nuclear energy system investments using the golden cut and bipolar q-ROF hybrid decision making model

This study aims to construct risk management-based impact relation map of nuclear energy system investments. By considering SWARA and ELECTRE with golden cut and bipolar q-ROFSs, a new model is recommended with two different stages. The first stage includes weighting the risk management process for the nuclear energy systems with M-SWARA. The second stage focuses on constructing the risk management-based impact relation map of nuclear energy system investments by ELECTRE. Furthermore, IFSs and PFSs are also used in addition to q-ROFSs for the purpose of making comparative evaluation. The main novelty of this study is to identify the most critical risk factors with respect to the performance improvement of the nuclear energy investments by creating an original model. The weighting and ranking results are similar, so it is understood that the findings are reliable and coherent. It is concluded that analysis is the most crucial process with respect to the effective risk management for the nuclear energy systems. Additionally, increasing the safety proactively is the most essential factor regarding nuclear energy system investments.

Integrated design and operational optimization of energy systems in dairies

Around 70% of worldwide industrial energy use is today based on fossil energy. Electrification of low temperature heat in this sector is pointed out as a key measure to reduce emissions. A large amount of the low temperature heat demand can be served by mature technologies, providing a possible fast way to decarbonize parts of the industry sector. Still, to reduce costs and accelerate broad, sector-wide implementation, integrating thermal and electrical energy systems will be important. Here a model is presented to analyse cost-optimal industrial energy system investments, applied to a dairy. The model uses heating, cooling and electric demands at an hourly resolution, including hourly power prices and yearly increases in energy and emission costs. The model minimizes investment, grid, energy and emission costs over a given planning period. Real data from a Norwegian dairy is used to investigate the effect on an industrial energy system subject to different future cost scenarios. The results show that an energy integrated dairy can reduce costs by 24% and emissions by 96% compared with a traditional dairy, and is cheaper to decarbonize. It is also shown that thermal energy storages provide flexibility at a low cost, eliminating the need for batteries.

Trade-offs between aggregated and turbine-level representations of hydropower in optimization models

To model a future power system with high shares of variable renewables, it is essential to capture the flexibility of dispatchable technologies such as hydropower. However, the representation of hydropower is often oversimplified in energy system investment models, such that the flexibility of hydropower is significantly exaggerated. This suggests the need for improved representations of hydropower that capture physical river dynamics but are computationally efficient to maintain the tractability of large models. Here, we develop a series of hydropower optimization models for a single river with various levels of techno-physical detail to evaluate options for hydropower representations in energy system investment models. All models operate hourly over a full year with perfect foresight. We explore trade-offs between accuracy and computational time involved in including features such as the river network, head-dependent power production, and discharge-dependent turbine efficiencies. We find that the level of detail significantly affects the optimal production and confirm that a simplistic hydropower representation similar to those often used in investment models significantly overestimates the flexibility of hydropower. The most detailed nonconvex model includes a full river network, head-dependency, and turbine efficiencies and is solved in just one hour on a modern desktop computer. Furthermore, we linearize this detailed model, thereby reducing computation time to one minute while featuring production dynamics substantially more similar to the full nonconvex model than a naive linear network model. These contributions pave the way for improving hydropower representations in investment models to avoid overestimating the flexibility that hydropower may provide.

Impacts of earlier natural gas phase-out & heat-saving policies on district heating and the energy system

Decarbonizing the district heating sector is essential for an affordable energy transition. Decarbonization strategies focusing on the interaction between power sector, individual heating technologies, heat-saving measures, and district heating expansion are missing in literature. We use energy system investment optimization to analyse the impact of decarbonization policies on district heating by comprehensively modelling the above-mentioned interaction across power and heating sector, and within the heating sector. We model decarbonization policy scenarios of massive investment into heat-saving measures and an earlier natural gas phase-out by 2030. Using Denmark as a case study, we identify policy-driven investments into heat-saving measures as non-optimal. Our results indicate that district heating expansion facilitates an earlier natural gas phase-out, which is a viable policy that inflicts only 0.07% extra system cost compared to a scenario with only net-zero emission targets. Furthermore, we find that decarbonized district heating sector has a very high reliance on industrial excess heat, biofuels, and electrification. A biomass tax reduces the high utilization of raw biomass and promotes its more sustainable use in carbon capture and storage. Our results show a cogeneration capacity reduction, which poses a challenge to the business model of conventional Danish district heating companies.

The role of virtual and augmented reality in occupational health and safety training of employees in PV power systems and evaluation with a sustainability perspective

The problems of foreign dependency in energy and the orientation towards national/international environmental policies encourage investments in renewable energy systems. In renewable energy systems (RES), photovoltaic (PV) systems based on solar energy are increasing every year. This situation reveals the need for qualified employees whose working area is photovoltaic systems. This study has conducted a literature search on occupational health and safety (OHS) issues in PV power systems. At the same time, field studies and expert interviews were conducted to examine the OHS practices and training received in the work areas. In this direction, the importance of OHS requirements and training for OHS success in PV power systems has been emphasized. The importance of training has been expressed to increase OHS's performance and success in the PV power system fields. In this study, sample gamification scenarios were created for two different activities in working at height during the installation of the PV. Algorithms have been developed for improving VR/AR applications in OHS training with the sample gamification scenarios created and to support the dissemination of these training applications. In this way, it is aimed to explain the necessary information for VR/AR technologies at an academic level and to contribute to content developers, researchers, relevant institutions and organizations from a sustainability perspective.

Full Cost of Electricity “FCOE” and Energy Returns “eROI”

Understanding electricity generation’s true cost is paramount to choosing and prioritizing our future energy systems. This paper introduces the full cost of electricity (FCOE) and discusses energy returns (eROI). The authors conclude with suggestions for energy policy considering the new challenges that come with global efforts to “decarbonize”.
 
 In 2021, debate started to occur regarding energy security (or rather electricity security) which was driven by an increase in electricity demand, shortage of energy raw material supply, insufficient electricity generation from wind and solar, and geopolitical challenges, which in turn resulted in high prices and volatility in major economies. This was witnessed around the world, for instance in China, India, the US, and of course Europe. Reliable electricity supply is crucial for social and economic stability and growth which in turn leads to eradication of poverty. 
 
 The authors explain and quantify the gap between installed energy capacity and actual electricity generation when it comes to variable renewable energy. The main challenges for wind and solar are its intermittency and low energy density, and as a result practically every wind mill or solar panel requires either a backup or storage, which adds to system costs.
 
 Widely used levelized cost of electricity, LCOE, is inadequate to compare intermittent forms of energy generation with dispatchable ones and when making decisions at a country or society level. We introduce and describe the methodology for determining the full cost of electricity (FCOE) or the full cost to society. FCOE explains why wind and solar are not cheaper than conventional fuels and in fact become more expensive the higher their penetration in the energy system. The IEA confirms “…the system value of variable renewables such as wind and solar decreases as their share in the power supply increases”. This is illustrated by the high cost of the “green” energy transition.
 
 We conclude with suggestions for a revised energy policy. Energy policy and investors should not favor wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, hydro, nuclear, gas, or coal but should support all energy systems in a manner which avoids energy shortage and energy poverty. All energy always requires taking resources from our planet and processing them, thus negatively impacting the environment. It must be humanity’s goal to minimize these negative impacts in a meaningful way through investments – not divestments – by increasing, not decreasing, energy and material efficiencies.
 
 Therefore, the authors suggest energy policy makers to refocus on the three objectives, energy security, energy affordability, and environmental protection. This translates into two pathways for the future of energy: 
 
 (1) invest in education and base research to pave the path towards a New Energy Revolution where energy systems can sustainably wean off fossil fuels. 
 
 (2) In parallel, energy policy must support investment in conventional energy systems to improve their efficiencies and reduce the environmental burden of generating the energy required for our lives.
 
 Additional research is required to better understand eROI, true cost of energy, material input, and effects of current energy transition pathways on global energy security.

Impacts of Water and Energy Sector Reforms in Gujarat: The Case of Expansion of Micro Irrigation Schemes and Rationalisation of Agricultural Power Tariff

Against the backdrop of the water and energy sector reforms enunciated by the state government in Gujarat, this paper reviews the important policy changes and outcomes of farm-level adoption of water-saving technologies, on the one hand, and the effective implementation of energy tariff policies, on the other hand. Following an assessment of the water and energy policy and regulatory interventions, the paper provides an overview of the farm-level adoption micro irrigation (sprinkler and drip irrigation) systems over the past one decade of the policy reforms. The paper then examines the case of energy sector reforms enunciated by the state in coordination with the energy regulator through establishment of the distribution companies (DISCOMs). The paper brings out that the policy and regulatory interventions in the water and energy (power) sectors have been successful in terms of wider promotion of micro irrigation systems and deregulation of power generation and distribution activities by establishing dedicated DISCOMs. Thus, the policy initiatives were able to address several challenges facing the water and energy sectors in the state. Firstly, the wide-scale promotion of micro irrigation schemes has significantly reduced the groundwater over-extraction for agriculture. Second, the energy sector reforms have shown a significant progress towards rationalisation of tariffs across sectors. However, it emerges that the policy and regulatory reforms need to (i) go beyond the narrow confines of promotion of micro irrigation systems towards sustainable management of water resources and (ii) move beyond rationalisation of power tariffs by offering sustainable solutions to the problems of water and energy security amidst increasing competition for inter-sectoral allocations. Essentially, the energy sector policies and reforms may explore the potential of renewable energy sources through decentralised investments in solar and wind energy systems in the rural areas involving different public–private community partnership models.

Linking the National Energy and Climate Plan with Municipal Spatial Planning and Supporting Sustainable Investment in Renewable Energy Sources in Austria

The Austrian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) refers to spatial planning as an important instrument to achieve 2030 targets because the technical potential of renewable energy sources (RES) are closely related to the types of land use. In Austria, land use is regulated by the spatial planning laws of the nine provinces, whereby the municipalities play an important role. It was the objective of the transFORMAT project to understand the scope for action of the municipalities with regard to promoting renewable energy use, and to understand the practical implications for renewable energy projects. To this end, the consolidated versions of spatial planning laws were analyzed and supported by a software tool (transFORMAT-Analyzer) that was developed to facilitate this process and the resulting follow-up activities. Responsible administrative departments were approached for supplementary information when deemed necessary. As a conclusion, the legal instrument (municipal ordinance), called a municipal development plan or concept, represents a long-term plan for the development of the municipality with the obligation or the option for revision under specific conditions. In theory, these revision intervals could be used to better align municipal plans with the NECP. In practice, however, significant barriers exist and opportunities for improvement have been identified, leading to recommendations on how investments in renewable energy systems can be planned more realistically and, thus, more sustainably.

Demand vs supply-side approaches to mitigation: What final energy demand assumptions are made to meet 1.5 and 2 °C targets?

Today’s climate policies will shape the future trajectory of emissions. Consumption is the main driver behind recent increases in global greenhouse gas emissions, outpacing savings through improved technologies, and therefore its representation in the evidence base will impact on the success of policy interventions. The IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5) summarises global evidence on pathways for meeting below-2 °C targets, underpinned by a suite of scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs). We explore how final energy demand is framed within these, with the aim to making demand-related assumptions more transparent, and evaluating their significance, feasibility, and use or underutilisation as a mitigation lever. We investigate how the integrated assessment models compensate for higher and lower levels of final energy demand across scenarios, and how this varies when mitigating for 2 °C and 1.5 °C temperature targets through an analysis of (1) final energy demand projections, (2) energy-economy relationships and (3) differences between energy system decarbonisation and carbon dioxide removal in the highest and lowest energy demand pathways. We look across the full suite of mitigation pathways and assess the consequences of achieving different global carbon budgets. We find that energy demand in 2100 in the highest energy demand scenarios is approximately three to four times higher than the lowest demand pathways, but we do not find strong evidence that 1.5 °C-consistent pathways cluster on the lower end of demand levels, particularly when they allow for overshoot. The majority of demand reductions happen pre-2040, which assumes absolute decoupling from economic growth in the near-term; thereafter final energy demand levels generally grow to 2100. Lower energy demand pathways moderately result in lower renewable energy supply and lower energy system investment, but do not necessarily reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal. In this sense, there is more scope for IAMs to implement energy demand reduction as a longer-term mitigation lever and to reduce reliance on negative emissions technologies. We demonstrate the need for integrated assessments to play closer attention to how final energy demand interacts with, relates to, and can potentially offset supply-side characteristics, alongside a more diverse evidence base.

A multi-objective methodology for evaluating the investment in building-integrated hybrid renewable energy systems

The scientific literature lacks methodologies for assessing HRES investments because of complex interactions among HRES components, conflicting objectives, and uncertainty in the energy demand. This work fills this gap by presenting a methodology to assess long-term investments in HRES for off-grid buildings. To strengthen the reliability of the assessment, the methodology exploits an HRES optimal synthesis, sizing and operation simulating the system and embodying the interactions among HRES components for both electrical and heat generation, the building loads evaluation, and the verification of the effect of uncertainties in the energy demand. These aspects have already been investigated, but, to our best knowledge, have never been considered in a concurrent and integrated way. The resulting designs are optimised through an NSGA-II algorithm that minimises the system CO2 emissions and differential cost with respect to a solution that does not use renewable energy sources. The soundness of the solutions is evaluated through a scenario analysis and a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method. The applicability of the proposal was verified through a case study in an off-grid facility, showing possible savings up to 47 k€ and 320 tCO2. The methodology is thus strongly consistent with the building decarbonisation addresses set by the policymakers.

Impacts of Electric Road Systems on the German and Swedish Electricity Systems—An Energy System Model Comparison

This study analyses the impacts of electrification of the transport sector, involving both static charging and electric road systems (ERS), on the Swedish and German electricity systems. The impact on the electricity system of large-scale ERS is investigated by comparing the results from two model packages: 1) a modeling package that consists of an electricity system investment model (ELIN) and electricity system dispatch model (EPOD); and 2) an energy system investment and dispatch model (SCOPE). The same set of scenarios are run for both model packages and the results for ERS are compared. The modeling results show that the additional electricity load arising from large-scale implementation of ERS is mainly, depending on model and scenario, met by investments in wind power in Sweden (40–100%) and in both wind (20–75%) and solar power (40–100%) in Germany. This study also concludes that ERS increase the peak power demand (i.e., the net load) in the electricity system. Therefore, when using ERS, there is a need for additional investments in peak power units and storage technologies to meet this new load. A smart integration of other electricity loads than ERS, such as optimization of static charging at the home location of passenger cars, can facilitate efficient use of renewable electricity also with an electricity system including ERS. A comparison between the results from the different models shows that assumptions and methodological choices dictate which types of investments are made (e.g., wind, solar and thermal power plants) to cover the additional demand for electricity arising from the use of ERS. Nonetheless, both modeling packages yield increases in investments in solar power (Germany) and in wind power (Sweden) in all the scenarios, to cover the new electricity demand for ERS.

Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.

A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years. There is no common structure for the way national emissions scenarios are created, hindering efforts for comparison and analysis at the larger scale. This Perspective presents a framework to guide individual national scenario creation in a standardized way.