Public Infrastructure Investment Research Articles

Maturing urban cycling: Comparing barriers and motivators to bicycle of cyclists and non-cyclists in Lisbon, Portugal

Cities with low cycling maturity (LCM) are cities with a small cycling modal share and little cycling infrastructure. Despite the increasing public interest in cycling as travel mode, LCM cities are still prevalent in the western world, and few research has been developed on which are the barriers and what lead people to bicycle in this type of cities, that still are changing. This research explores the motivators and deterrents to bicycle in Lisbon (Portugal), a city with a cycling modal share below 1%, and compares the perceived barriers to cycling between cyclists and non-cyclists, as well as the triggers and motivators to start cycling between the same groups.Results from a survey (n = 1079) showed that both groups considered the issues related to the perception of safety, physical effort, the lack of a safe cycling network, and bicycle ownership as important barriers to take up cycling in Lisbon. We conclude that non-cyclists’ perceived barriers are similar to the barriers cyclists had before they changed behavior. In contrast, the self-reported triggers that induced cyclists to take up cycling are not similar to the expectations that non-cyclists have of what would, or could, change their behavior. Nevertheless, the expected motivators stated by non-cyclists are consistent with their perceived barriers, which are more community-oriented and not so much related to personal interests or needs. We analyzed the triggers for cycling for different generations of cyclists, taking into consideration specific public policies and infrastructure investments that promote bicycling. Triggers vary over time, and they should also change as cities transition to higher cycling maturity levels.This research and conclusions may support the design of policies in order to increase cycling levels in LCM cities by acknowledging the barriers and motivations of potential new cyclists and learn from current cyclists.

Mind the Electoral Gap: the Effect of Investment in Public Infrastructure on Authoritarian Support in South Korea

This study examines the effect of investment in transportation infrastructure on regime support in an electoral authoritarian regime. Using a difference-in-difference analysis of neighborhood-level panel data on a subway system from 1971–1985 in urban South Korea, we find that incumbent vote share increased in neighborhoods surrounding the newly constructed subway stations. We show that subway construction was effective at boosting regime support, especially in neighborhoods where people are more likely to read about the government propaganda of subway construction from newspapers. We also provide anecdotal evidence of private economic gains contributing to the increased support for the ruling party. The results suggest that investment in welfare-enhancing goods and services such as public transportation may help autocrats of developing countries to retain political power by increasing electoral support for their ruling parties.

Verticalización inmobiliaria y valorización de renta de suelo por infraestructura pública: un análisis econométrico del Gran Santiago, 2008-2011

Investments in public infrastructure and land upzoning aimed to high-rise redevelopment are both factors that considerably increase ground rent values in the city. Drawing on a dataset of new departments sold between 2008 and 2011, with data on unit size and commercial sale price, and discounting costs of land and construction, a multiple linear regression analysis is conducted with controlled fixed factors. The analysis shows that in Greater Santiago, state investment in Metro subway networks increases the ground rent captured by redevelopers by 25.6%, whereas only 5.5% by private landowners. Likewise, each additional point of the Coefficient of Constructability (Floor Area Ratio), which are contained in the municipal-level construction codes, increases by 6.1% the value of ground rent, revenues that are also absorbed by the private redeveloper. Given these results, it is important to discuss the efficiency of having a land rent tax in the country.

A New Path for U.S. Climate Politics: Choosing Policies That Mobilize Business for Decarbonization

What policies could mobilize business support for progressive and durable national climate policy in the United States? I examine the climate policy experiences of U.S. states and propose that a national clean energy standard combined with carefully allocated public investment in clean energy infrastructure and innovation could mobilize economic interests in support of decarbonization. Further, I argue that the more entrenched clean energy and infrastructure become, the more likely it becomes that comprehensive climate policies can be passed in the future. This includes performance and deployment mandates beyond the electricity industry, including in the transport and building sectors. These initial steps may also help to build a winning coalition for progressive federal carbon pricing, as opposed to an accommodative coalition in support of weak carbon pricing.

Improving Public Infrastructure in the Philippines

This paper explores the macroeconomic effects of improving public infrastructure in the Philippines, modeling the infrastructure scale-up plan being implemented by the current administration. After benchmarking the Philippines’ level of infrastructure investment, quantity and quality of public infrastructure, and public investment efficiency relative to its neighboring countries, the analysis uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic implications of raising public investment expenditure with different financing schemes and different rates of public investment efficiency. Critically dependent on a model structure in which accumulation of publicly provided infrastructure raises the overall productivity of the economy, the model simulations show that (i) increasing public infrastructure investment results in sustained gains in output, (ii) the effects of improving public investment efficiency are substantial, and (iii) deficit-financed increases in public investment lead to higher borrowing costs that constrain output increases over time. These results underscore the importance of improving public investment efficiency and revenue mobilization.

Public land leasing, public productive spending and economic growth in Chinese cities

Land leasing revenue has been successfully used as a municipal financing tool to support public infrastructure investments which may drive economic growth. This study first constructs a growth model to investigate the correlation among land leasing revenue, infrastructure development and economic growth, and finds that with higher land-capital more land leasing revenue could directly accelerate economic growth and land leasing revenue could also indirectly slow economic growth by increasing public productive investment if the government size is large. Then we empirically testified these results using 280 cities' panel dataset, and it confirmed our theoretical results. The regression results show that increase of land leasing revenue will directly speed up economic growth, while the economic growth will increase by 0.2% with 1% increase of land leasing revenue; land leasing revenue, on the other side, successfully used as a municipal financing tool to sustain public infrastructure investments, indirectly hampers economic growth, where the indirect negative effect is -0.14. Our study contributes to better understanding of the special role of land leasing revenue in local economic growth.

Determinants of PPP in infrastructure investments in MENA countries: a focus on energy

Good infrastructures are key to guarantee sustained economic growth and inclusive development. However, fiscal and budget constraints are likely to restraint public investment in infrastructure. For these reasons, public–private partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly playing a crucial role in infrastructures deployment at global level. However, the factors affecting PPP attraction are still understudied. In particular, it is notable that some regions are persistently underperforming in terms of PPP investments. This study aims to identify the impact that non-financial factors, such as governance and regulatory quality, play in PPP investments in the MENA region. We analysed the impact of regulatory quality in infrastructure investment and we show that regulatory quality is the most relevant governance indicator to explain the level of PPP investments. Its impact is particularly strong in the energy sector, and in politically instable environments such as the MENA countries.

Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: From Diminishing Returns to International Trade

The economic effects of transport infrastructure have been at the forefront of economic research and development policies for the last three decades, after the estimates in the early studies uncovered transport investment as one of the main drivers of economic growth. This is still widely accepted, and the aim of this paper is to challenge this view by analyzing 657 estimates from 48 production function studies. Our results confirm a positive yet small average output elasticity of transport network, but further add to the literature by showing that the marginal returns of transport infrastructure have been falling since 1950s, especially in the USA and China, while the output elasticities in Europe have been stable but low throughout the entire period. Furthermore, the paper reviews studies on the effeets of new roads on firm-level performance, and concludes, based on the evidence of small marginal returns of transport infrastructure on both macro- and micro-economic level, that a a much more targeted approach to public investment in transport infrastructure is needed, at least in the developed countries.

How Does Paired Assistance to Disaster-Affected Areas (PADAA) Contribute to Economic Sustainability? A Qualitative Analysis of Wenchuan County

There is a high risk of an economic downturn after the end of reconstruction efforts following natural hazards. High levels of external assistance can sometimes weaken local autonomy and self-sufficiency, creating the pre-conditions for a “forgotten phase”. However, through the three-year Paired Assistance to Disaster-Affected Areas project (PADAA), the economy of Wenchuan County in China recovered to its pre-earthquake levels within two years and has shown clear signs of economic sustainability. Through a qualitative research approach based on the analysis of expert interviews, secondary data, and relevant documentation, this study discusses the phases of the reconstruction process following the Wenchuan earthquake, and the factors behind the success of the PADAA process in enabling economic sustainability. Some of the identified factors include: (1) the reshaping of local livelihoods and economic structure through a large number of investments in public infrastructure; (2) knowledge acquisition, self-adjustment, and the ability to meet the needs of a new economy and social development through institutional reform and openness; (3) increasing amounts of attracted investments and the development of sustainable industrial structures through the improvement of the local government’s economic governance.

Rebalancing a lopsided global economy

AbstractThe growth in global current account imbalances has produced a lopsided global economy, characterised by large lenders and large borrowers, large savers and large consumers, and large exporters and large importers. For many years, the G20 has committed to reducing these imbalances. But has it been successful? Are the G20's policy prescriptions for reducing these imbalances the right ones? And have countries altered their policies because of the discussions and commitments in the G20 or not? The paper assesses whether the G20 has achieved its goal of reducing global current account imbalances. It then uses the G‐Cubed (G20) model — a multi‐country, multi‐sector, intertemporal general equilibrium model — to assess the impacts of the G20's proposed policy agenda. It shows that the G20's policy prescriptions — reducing the fiscal deficit in the United States, increasing public infrastructure investment in Germany and increasing domestic consumption in China — are not necessarily effective in reducing current account imbalances and, when imbalances are reduced, it often comes at the cost of the real economy. Finally, the paper uses the results from in‐depth interviews with 61 policymakers from across all G20 countries — including Janet Yellen, Kevin Rudd, Ben Bernanke, Haruhiko Kuroda, Jack Lew, Mark Carney and 55 others — to explore whether the G20's focus on current account imbalances influences domestic policies. It finds that, while the G20's influence has been marginal, there are ways in which it could be strengthened. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the G20's agenda could be reformed to help reduce current account imbalances in the future.

Determine the optimal capital structure of BOT projects using interval numbers with Tianjin Binhai New District Metro Z4 line in China as an example

Purpose Various factors may influence project finance when a multi-sourced debt financing strategy is used for financing capital investments, in general, and public infrastructure investments, in particular. Traditional indicators lack comprehensive consideration of the influences of many internal and external factors, such as investment structure, financing mode and credit guarantee structure, which exist in the financing decision making of BOT projects. An effective approach is, thus, desired. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This paper develops a financial model that uses an interval number to represent the uncertain factors and, subsequently, conducts a standardization of the interval number. Decision makers determine the weight of each objective through the analytic hierarchy process. Through the optimization procedure, project investors and sponsors are provided with a strategy regarding the optimal amount of debt to be raised and the insight on the risk level based on the net present value, as well as the probability of bankruptcy for each different period of debt service. Findings By using an example infrastructure project in China and based on the comprehensive evaluation, comparison and ranking of the capital structures of urban public infrastructure projects using the interval number method, the final ranking can help investors to choose the optimal capital structure for investment. The calculation using the interval number method shows that X2 is the optimal capital structure plan for the BOT project of the first stage of Tianjin Binhai Rail Transit Z4 line. Therefore, investors should give priority to selecting a capital contribution ratio of 45 per cent for this investment. Research limitations/implications In this paper, some parameters, such as depreciation life, construction period and concession period, are assumed to be deterministic parameters, although the interval number model has been introduced to analyze the uncertainty indicators, such as total investment and passenger flow, of BOT rail transport projects. Therefore, more of the above deterministic parameters can be taken as uncertainty parameters in future research so that calculation results fit actual projects more closely. Originality/value This model can be used to make the optimal investment decision for a project by determining the impact of uncertainty factors on the profitability of the project in its lifecycle during the project financial feasibility analysis. Project sponsors can determine the optimal capital structure of a project through an analysis of the irregular fluctuation of the unpredictable factors in project construction such as construction investment, operating cost and passenger flow. The model can also be used to examine the effects of different capital investment ratios on indicators so that appropriate measures can be taken to reduce risks and maximize profit.

Public and Private Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth in Pakistan: An Aggregate and Disaggregate Analysis

This study investigates the relationship between infrastructure investment and economic growth at the aggregate and sectoral levels, namely, the industrial, agriculture, and services sectors for Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2015. In contrast to earlier literature, we make a comparative analysis of the different composition of infrastructure investments, including public versus private investment and infrastructure investment in sub-sectors such as in power, roads, and telecommunication sectors. The long-run relationship is estimated using fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) to address the problem of reverse causality. The main conclusion of this study is that both public and private infrastructure investments have positive but different effects on economic growth. In other words, the marginal productivities of private and public infrastructure investments differ across the different sectors of the economy. In most of the cases, public infrastructure investment has a larger impact on economic growth than private infrastructure investment. Two important policy implications emerge from this study, as follows: (1) The different elasticity estimates can be used by policy makers to quantify the impact of policies targeted at the specific sector and (2) the government should develop an enabled policy environment to attract private investment, with the consideration of structural characteristics of the various sectors. The involvement of the private sector in the provision of infrastructure would help to control the tight budgetary situation.

PUBLIC INVESTMENTS INCENTIVE FACTORS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH - CASE STUDY OF REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA

The basic function of public finances is economic stability that implies the use of public finance instruments in order to stabilize economic cycles to achieve full employment, overall price stability, achieving an adequate rate of economic growth, a stable rate economic development.Governments to contribute to economic balances, job creation, and productivity growth tend to boost productive public spending by undertaking long-term activities in the sphere of public investment, namely public, health and education infrastructure, as well as in the sphere of research and development. Both theoretical and empirical studies conclude that public investment impacts on economic growth, represent an instrument of low growth, but their increasing effect is influenced by various factors such as economic circumstances, level of development the quality of governance, the efficient management of investment projects, the sectors in which it is invested, the capital fund, etc.The purpose of this paper is to research the short-term and long-term effects of public investments in the Republic of Northe Macedonia in economic growth. The analysis takes into account the data on the structure of public investment, gross domestic product for the time period 2008-2017. Using the multiple regression analysis OLS, we conclude that in the long run the impact of public investment on economic growth is symbolic given that a very small percentage of public expenditures for public infrastructure investments although Macedonia is characterized by a low capital public fund.

Comparing Syndromic Data to Discharge Data to Measure Opioid Overdose Emergency Department Visits

ObjectiveEpidemiologists will understand the differences between syndromic and discharge emergency department data sources, the strengths and limitations of each data source, and how each of these different emergency department data sources can be best applied to inform a public health response to the opioid overdose epidemic.IntroductionTimely and accurate measurement of overdose morbidity using emergency department (ED) data is necessary to inform an effective public health response given the dynamic nature of opioid overdose epidemic in the United States. However, from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, differing sources and types of ED data vary in their quality and comprehensiveness. Many jurisdictions collect timely emergency department data through syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems, while others may have access to more complete, but slower emergency department discharge datasets. State and local epidemiologists must make decisions regarding which datasets to use and how to best operationalize, interpret, and present overdose morbidity using ED data. These choices may affect the number, timeliness, and accuracy of the cases identified.MethodsCDC partnered with 45 states and the District of Columbia to combat the worsening opioid overdose epidemic through three cooperative agreements: Prevention for States (PFS), Data Driven Prevention Initiative (DDPI), and Enhanced State Opioid Overdose Surveillance (ESOOS). To support funded jurisdictions in monitoring non-fatal opioid overdoses, CDC developed two different sets of indicator guidance for measuring non-fatal opioid overdoses using ED data, with each focusing on different ED data sources (SyS and discharge). We report on the following attributes for each type of ED data source1,2: 1) timeliness; 2) data quality (e.g., percent completeness by field); 3) validity; and 4) representativeness (e.g., percent of facilities included).ResultsWhen comparing timeliness across data sources, SyS data has clear advantages, with many jurisdictions receiving data within 24 hours of an event. For discharge data, timeliness is more variable with some jurisdictions receiving data within weeks while others wait over 1.5 years before receiving a complete discharge dataset. Data quality and completeness tends to be stronger in discharge datasets as facilities are required to submit complete discharge records with valid ICD-10-CM codes in order to be reimbursed by payers. By contrast, for SyS data systems, participating facilities may not consistently submit data for all possible fields, including diagnosis. Validity is dependent on the data source as well as the case definition or syndrome definition used; with this in mind, SyS data overdose indicators are designed to have high sensitivity, with less attention to specificity. Discharge data overdose indicators are designed to have a high positive predictive value, while sensitivity and specificity are both important considerations. Discharge datasets often include records for 100% of ED visits from all nonfederal, acute care-affiliated facilities in a state included. By contrast, representativeness of facilities in SyS data systems varies widely across states with some states having less than 50% of facilities reporting.ConclusionsCDC funded partners share overdose morbidity data with CDC using either ED SyS data, ED discharge data, or both. CDC indicator guidance for ED discharge data is designed for states to track changes in health outcomes over time for descriptive, performance monitoring, and evaluation purposes and to create rates that are more comparable across injury category, time, and place. Considering these objectives, CDC placed a higher priority on data quality, validity (i.e., positive predictive value), and representativeness, all of which are stronger attributes of discharge data. CDC’s indicator guidance for ED SyS data is designed for states to rapidly identify changes in nonfatal overdoses and to identify areas within a particular state that are experiencing rapid change in the frequency or types of overdose events. When considering these needs, CDC prioritized timeliness and validity in terms of sensitivity, both of which are stronger attributes of SyS data. SyS and discharge ED data each lend themselves to different informational applications and interpretations based on the strengths and limitations of each dataset. An effective, informed public health response to the opioid overdose epidemic requires continued investment in public health surveillance infrastructure, careful consideration of the needs of the data user, and transparency regarding the unique strengths and limitations of each dataset.

Rent gap formation due to public infrastructure and planning policies: An analysis of Greater Santiago, Chile, 2008–2011

Land upzoning and state investment in public infrastructure are two of the principal factors that increase the rent gap in the city; however, the scale of their impact remains unknown. This paper p...

Do Bus Rapid Transit Systems Improve Accessibility to Job Opportunities for the Poor? The Case of Lima, Peru

Investments in public transit infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean often aim to reduce spatial and social inequalities by improving accessibility to jobs and other opportunities for vulnerable populations. One of the central goals of Lima’s Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project was to connect low-income populations living in the peripheries to jobs in the city center, a policy objective that has not yet been evaluated. Building on secondary datasets of employment, household socio-demographics and origin–destination surveys before and after the BRT began operations, this paper examines the contribution of Lima’s BRT system to accessibility to employment in the city, particularly for low-income public transit users. We estimated the effects on potential accessibility to employment, comparing impacts on lower versus higher income populations, and assessed the changes in location-based accessibility to employment before (2004) and after implementation (2012) for treatment and comparison groups. We found that the BRT line reduced travel times for commuters to reach jobs, in comparison with traditional public transport in the city. However, the coverage of the BRT declines in areas with high concentrations of poor populations, limiting the equitability of accessibility improvements. The analysis by socioeconomic sub-groups found positive effects of the BRT system on accessibility for the higher income areas. Relative to the control group, accessibility increased in the 10-km boundary area of the BRT by 0.01, a seven percent increase relative to the treatment baseline accessibility index in the higher socioeconomic (SES) areas of the city. In contrast, in the areas with high concentrations of lower SES populations, the double difference estimate indicated an 11 percent decrease relative to the baseline accessibility index (0.09). We build on case-specific findings and international literature to reflect on policy avenues to include the poor in the mobility benefits of BRT systems. These measures include targeted fare subsidies for low-income groups, fare integration with other forms of public transport that reduce the cost of transfers, and the increase of coverage of the BRT through the integration of stations with non-motorized infrastructure.

Interaction of Public Transport Accessibility and Residential Property Values Using Smart Card Data

This study examines the relationship between residential property values and accessibility indicators derived from transit smart card data. The use of smart card data to estimate accessibility indicators for explaining the housing market has not yet been explored in the literature. Hence, this paper employs information from Brisbane, Australia’s “go card” and corresponding property data to develop residential property hedonic pricing models using an ordinary least square (OLS) model, a spatial lagged model (SL), a spatial error model (SE), and a geographically weighted regression (GWR). Due to the systematic coincidence between location and price similarities, these spatial econometric models yield superior goodness-of-fit over the OLS model. Using the proposed definition of public transit accessibility in this study, it was found that properties located in well-connected, well-serviced, and accessible locations generally experience premiums in their values. The results indicate that there is value added to the property market from the public investment in public transport services and infrastructure, which supports the adoption of transit funding mechanisms, such as value-capture taxes. Furthermore, the analysis of spatial interactions between transport accessibility and the housing market could be of use to policy makers to ensure a just distribution of capital investment in future infrastructure projects.

A longitudinal analysis of the effect of public rail infrastructure on proximate residential property transactions

Value capture offers the promise of recouping the additional value that public transportation infrastructure investments confer to local property. The totality of the empirical evidence supports the contention that such investments do indeed add value to proximate residential property. However, little research to estimate just how much any additional property value changes from year to year is evident in the empirical literature. The absence of evidence on the reliability of accessibility premiums is problematic from a policy perspective because transit operators need dedicated sources of funds to compensate for the retrenchment of government sources. Adoption of a multilevel approach expands the temporal scale of analysis to more than a decade and the spatial scale of analysis to an entire heavy rail system, Metro in Washington, District of Columbia (DC), in order to estimate just how much accessibility premiums change year over year. Results advance the state of knowledge on value capture since public rail infrastructure adds property value across an entire heavy rail system, but the additional value is modest and the year-to-year changes are dramatic. Overall, a strategy to capture any additional property value to fund public transportation may technically qualify as a dedicated source of funds, but it is not a reliable source of funds.

Ethiopia's Downgrade to High Risk of Debt Distress: A Policy Framework for the Government

Ethiopia was downgraded to high risk of debt distress in January 2018 based on the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), a finding reaffirmed by the updated 2017 Review of the LIC DSF, which was rolled out in the second half of 2018. This finding illustrates the shortcomings of the LIC DSF, which were supposed to have been addressed by the 2017 Review. The fundamental problem is a continued myopic focus on debt distress in relation to external public debt. In Ethiopia’s case — as with most LICs — external debt distress is a symptom of unsustainable public debt dynamics driven by high fiscal deficits that spill over into current account deficits and external debt. Ignoring this fundamental causation results in basic development questions being left off the table. For Ethiopia, these questions include: (a) What would the government’s debt dynamics look like in the absence of financial repression and overvalued exchange rates, both of which need to be corrected in order to improve the private investment climate as the Government prepares to hand off the growth baton to the private sector? And (b) will the large public investments in infrastructure pay off in terms of future growth and taxes in order to ensure fiscal solvency? The Government of Ethiopia needs answers to these questions as it implements its growth strategy and pursues its dialogue with donors and the private sector.

Management Framework for Land Based Financing in Egyptian New Cities based on the Chinese Model

Land based financing is a financing approach in which it can provide the needed financing to allurban infrastructure without depending on the government as the main economic funder or the low-income groups. This financing approach is based on obtaining revenues from private developers and high-end land owners through publicly-owned land selling or leasing to capture the increment in land value as a result of public investment in infrastructure which creates a sustainable financing mechanism for infrastructure provision and for urban development and expansion. However, the usage of this financing approach in some Egyptian new cities had exposed the government to many negative financial instability risks due to the current used policies which have caused to hinge and disturb the national urban development strategies. On the other hand, many international cases have used this financing approach effectively and achieved great outcomes on many levels; economic, social, sustainability, and urban development. One of these pioneering cases and considers have the longest experience in using this mechanism is China. The main objective of this research is to generate and deduce a management framework for this financing approach in Egyptian new cities based on the Chinese model. Accordingly, the research methodology includes literature review and qualitative analyses of some international pioneering cases in China in an attempt to deduce a set of criteria that eliminates any potential risks, neutralize the occurred risks, and unlock the full potentialities of this financing approach in Egyptian new cities.In conclusion, using land based financing effectively and with the right and suitable policies would achieve the governmental socio-economic, urban development, and sustainability objectives while keeps the negative impacts at their lowest levels.