The aim of the article is to study the historical aspects of the development of theories of cyclicity in economics. The article analyzes the historical aspects of the emergence and development of theories of cyclicity. The concept of the cyclical nature of time was formed in ancient Egypt. From there, the idea of cyclicity penetrated into ancient Greece and were developed in the teachings of the Pythagoreans and Stoics. The Pythagoreans associated cyclicity, i.e. the existence of time segments of equal length, with world harmony. The cyclicity of time is also reflected in the calendars of the Maya, Incas and Aztecs. However, the most developed concepts of the cyclical nature of time, in our opinion, were formed in India. Particular attention is paid to the study of concepts about the cyclical nature of time, which were formed in India on the example of Hinduism and Jainism. The essence, nature, mechanisms of cyclic transformations in economic dynamics are considered. At the present stage of development of economic thought, the first attempt to explain the cyclical nature of capitalist production was made by the English economist William Stanley Jevons with the theory of the economic cycle based on the periodicity of solar activity. The explanation of cyclicality, as a periodic need to renew the fixed capital of enterprises, began to prevail in scientific circles since the second half of the nineteenth century. Systematization and classification of the then theories of cyclical economic development contributed to the study of Ukrainian scientist M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky. The division of existing theories of the cycle into three groups is analyzed: theories of social production, theories of the sphere of social exchange and the theories of social distribution. The classification of economic cycles according to the duration of waves according to J. Schumpeter is generalized. It is proved that, in contrast to Kitchin's cycles, within the Juglar cycles there are fluctuations not only in the level of utilization of existing production capacity (and, accordingly, in the volume of inventories), but also fluctuations in fixed capital investment. Subsequently, the existence of short-term cycles was explained by fluctuations in world gold reserves, but in our time such an explanation can not be considered satisfactory. In modern economic theory, the mechanism of generating these cycles is usually associated with time delays (time lags) in the movement of information that affect decision-making by commercial enterprises.
Read full abstract