Invalid Voting Research Articles

A General Model of Abstention Under Compulsory Voting

Invalid voting and absenteeism are alternative sources of abstention under compulsory voting. Previous research failed to systematically study the mechanisms behind each form of non-voting and the relationships between them. We develop an analytical framework and an empirical strategy to jointly examine invalid voting and absenteeism in Brazil, the world’s largest democracy with mandatory voting. Using Bayesian inferential methods and analyzing both individual and district-level data, we show that less educated and politically knowledgeable citizens are less likely to vote and, when they do, they are typically unable to successfully complete their ballot. Unlike absenteeism, invalid voting also has a political dimension reflecting voters’ disenchantment with elections and democratic performance. Both sources of abstention coexist and, together, undermine electoral participation.

Invalid Voting in German Constituencies

This article studies invalid voting, which has received very little attention so far, given the broad interest and substantial relevance of voting behaviour research. Existing evidence is mostly limited to rather specific and hardly representative countries. Yet, the extent of invalid ballots is not negligible. Despite undemanding electoral rules, more invalid votes are cast in German general elections than votes for niche parties. Against this backdrop, the article describes prevalence of invalid voting in the mixed electoral system of Germany and tests explanations of its variation between constituencies. Analysing data from the most recent Bundestag Election, results give clear support to politico-institutional explanations: voters are more willing to waste their vote if second-order elections are held concurrently. Specifically under the plurality rule, more (first) votes are wasted if there are large shares for parties without direct candidates and many competing candidates.

Institutional determinants of invalid voting in post-communist Europe and Latin America

Implications from three theoretical models explaining the incidence of invalid voting are tested using data from all presidential elections in post-communist and Latin American democracies. Institutions such as the rule governing the possibility of reelection, compulsory voting, the rule for electing presidents, and the concurrence of elections, all powerfully shape the incidence of invalid voting. The article utilizes an interactive framework which implies that the effect of electoral rules is strongly conditioned by features of political competition. Although there is evidence consistent both with the voter error and protest models of invalid voting, most of the variation in invalid voting rates is explicable by the stakes associated with casting a valid as opposed to an invalid ballot.

Lack of Preferences, Political Trust and Education Levels: Alternative Explanations for Invalid Votes in Brazilian Elections

This paper explores the causes of invalid voting in Brazilian elections. Given that invalid ballot rates tend to be higher where voting is compulsory, the correlates of invalid votes in those countries deserve attention. In this regard, Brazil provides an ideal case for analysing the issue. Brazil not only has the largest electorate of all democracies with compulsory voting laws, but it has also introduced electronic ballots, what has been responsible for a considerable decline in the invalid vote rates. Using data from ESEB, a public opinion survey on elections, we perform a series of logistic regressions to analyse the 2010 presidential, gubernatorial and parliamentary elections, and evaluate the impact of political disaffection and educational level on invalid voting behaviour. We also test a third explanation that so far has not received much

Virtuous villages and sinful cities? A spatial analysis into the effects of community characteristics on turnout and blank/invalid voting in local elections in Belgium 2006–2012

Does the size of a community influence political participation? Using spatial analysis, we investigate this question for the absolute level and change in local electoral turnout and invalid voting, using municipality-level data (N=588) from the 2006 and 2012 local elections in Belgium. The population size of a community has a clear negative effect on political participation, while area size matters far less and has a positive association. Compulsory voting in Belgium keeps young people showing up at elections, but with a higher likelihood of spoiling their vote. One of the main negative influences on participation is computer voting instead of paper and pencil ballots. Clear differences between the language communities in Belgium remain, after controlling for other community variables.

Omyl, nebo úmysl? Analýza neplatných hlasů v olomouckém kraji

This article deals with the phenomenon of invalid voting which has appeared in regional elections in the Olomouc region in the Czech Republic. First, contemporary theories of invalid voting are introduced. Second, the given hypotheses, which include both institutional and socio-economic factors that, according to the theories, contribute to higher levels of invalid voting, are tested. Statistical analysis such as linear regression is employed in the research. The dataset is comprised of municipalities (cases) in which regional elections were held. The results show that higher levels of invalid voting are associated with concurrent elections (elections to the regional assembly and elections to the upper house (the Senate) of the Czech Parliament) in those municipalities in which residents are older and less well-educated. If regional elections are held without concurring elections, socio-economic variables have a smaller effect on invalid voting. Therefore, the state authorities should consider a revision of respective electoral law and simplify the electoral process involved in concurrent elections.

Determinants of invalid voting in Latin America

Although elections in Latin America are often characterized by very high levels of blank and spoiled ballots, there has been little if any systematic research into the phenomenon. Previous research from Europe, the U.S., and Australia has usually seen invalid voting as deriving from socio-demographic factors (literacy, education, wealth), institutional factors (electoral system and ballot structure), and political factors (alienation and protest). We operationalize these models for Latin America, using a cross-sectional time series data set including 80 legislative elections held in 18 democracies between 1980 and 2000. Socioeconomic variables such as urbanization and income inequality are associated with levels of invalid voting, while institutional variables such as compulsory voting, electoral disproportionality, and the combination of high district magnitude and a personalized voting system tend to increase blank and spoiled ballots. Moreover, regime-level factors such as political violence and the level and direction of democratic change also shape the rates of invalid voting.

Compulsory Voting, Invalid Ballots, and Abstention in Brazil

This paper explores the determinants of invalid ballots and abstention in the world's largest electorate subject to compulsory voting. Previous analysts have seen blank and spoiled ballots either as an expression of po litical protest or as a product of the social structure. To these interpreta tions we add the hypothesis that invalid voting can be caused by institutional factors. In studying twelve legislative elections in Brazil be tween 1945 and 1990, we find that for each of three dependent variables considered (invalid votes for both houses of Congress, and noncompliant abstention), a model incorporating political, socioeconomic, and institu tional factors is more powerful than a model relying on any one of these alone. We also provide evidence that Brazil's unusual system of open-list proportional representation generates institutional features which serve as barriers impeding the effective incorporation of newly enfranchised voters. The extraordinarily high rates of invalid balloting in recent Brazilian elec tions point to the necessity of institutional reform in order to achieve democratic consolidation, with important implications for other new democracies.

L'Abstentionnisme électoral et vote blanc et nul en Belgique

In spite op compulsory voting, the number of non-voters increased at the last general elections in Belgium to 7.3 per cent. This evolution can largely be explained by demographic factors. The number of blank or invalid voters reaches nearly the same level. Concerning this form of political non-participation, we noticed considerable differences occur between the types of elections (local, provincial, House, Senate, European) due to factors such as the importance and the proximity of the proper institution, the social distance between candidate and citizen and the main issue of the elections.The analysis of both phenomena over time at the level of the individual voters based on surveys shows that electoral absenteeism is rather accidental, white blanc and invalid voting is more permanent. From the analysis of absenteeism and blanc and invalid voting emerge on the one hand socio-economic factors (like age, gender, professional activity, income, marital status and family composition) which jeopardize electoral participation in a direct or indirect way, and on the other hand, attitudes and behaviour reflecting political indifference, alienation and hostility (like low levels of political interest, information, knowledge, satisfaction, party identification, and participation).