Interregional Migration Flows Research Articles

Are Interregional Wage Differentials in Russia Compensative?

Interregional differentials in nominal wages in the Russian Federation are huge compared to other countries. Using the NOBUS micro-data and a methodology based on the estimation of the wage equation augmented by aggregate regional characteristics, we show that these differentials have a compensative nature. Russian workers receive wage compensations for living in regions with a higher price level and worse non-pecuniary characteristics, such as a relatively low life expectancy, a high level of air pollution, poor medical services and a colder climate. After adjusting for these regional characteristics, the relative ranking of regions in terms of average wages changes considerably. Moreover, regional nominal wages become positively correlated with interregional migration flows. According to our estimates, half of the interregional wage variation between workers with similar productive characteristics should be considered to be compensative. These results support the view that the best policy reaction to the current high interregional wage differentials should be the removal of migration barriers and a reduction in migration costs. In general, our results show that wage compensations for regional disamenities along with differences in employment composition are able to account for about three fourths of the observed interregional variation in wages.

Structure of interregional migration flows in Spain : 1998-2006

El proposito de este articulo es realizar una investigacion exploratoria de la estructura de los flujos migratorios interregionales en Espana durante el periodo 1998 a 2006. Se aplico la descomposicion de tendencias extremas de Sonis (1980) a los flujos migratorios matriciales. Se encontro que la estructura migratoria inter-regional en Espana se hizo menos compleja durante el periodo analizado y que sus lugares de origen y destino han permanecido constantes.

Controlling for migration effects in ecological disease mapping of prostate cancer

Analytical disease mapping aims at linking control variables, the exposure to potential risk factors and to protective elements with the geographical distribution of disease events. Its goals are (a) to identify areas of atypical low and high disease risk and (b) to enhance our understanding of the underlying disease generating process. However, along with many other obstacles in analytical disease mapping, interregional migration masks for degenerative diseases with a long latency period any direct regional association between the observed disease rates and risks factors. Prostate gland cancer mortality rates of the 508 State Economic Areas (SEA) for the reporting period 1970–1994 are linked in an ecological regression model to proxy variables of putatively influential factors. A semi-parametric geographical filtering approach that uses the 1965–1970 interregional census migration flows among the SEA as underlying spatial structure is applied to control for confounding migration effects. This approach allows, despite some simplifying assumptions, to assess direct effects of potential risk factors on the spatial variability of prostate cancer and to visualize underlying spatial dimensions of the disease generating process. Results indicate a shift in relevance of the incorporated exogenous variables.

Inter-Regional Migration Flows in France over the Last Fifty Years

L’analyse des recensements successifs permet de dresser un tableau des migrations internes en France depuis cinquante ans. Apres vingt ans de baisse, la mobilite residentielle augmente depuis une dizaine d’annees, en particulier pour les personnes âgees de moins de 40 ans. Des changements importants sont intervenus depuis les annees 1950 dans la configuration des soldes migratoires regionaux. L’Ile-de-France est ainsi passee du statut de region la plus attractive (ayant un fort excedent migratoire) a celui de region la moins attractive (caracterisee par un fort deficit migratoire). A l’inverse, les regions de l’Ouest, qui enregistraient un solde migratoire fortement negatif dans les annees 1960, ne cessent de gagner en attractivite. Le Nord-Est reste peu attractif, alors que tout le Sud conserve un excedent migratoire eleve. Ce schema global varie toutefois selon les classes d’âges. En termes de solde migratoire, l’Ile-de-France reste ainsi la region la plus attractive pour les 20-29 ans. L’evolution des soldes migratoires resulte de modifications interessant les entrees et les sorties, ces deux composantes jouant differemment dans les evolutions regionales. Ainsi, en Ile-de-France, la baisse du solde migratoire interne depuis cinquante ans est principalement le resultat d’une forte hausse des departs de Franciliens, les arrivees de provinciaux ayant, pour leur part, peu diminue.

Econometric Analysis of Economic Growth and Internal Migration Based on Three Regions of China

This paper aims to clarify the mechanism of enlarging interregional disparity, and its relationship with internal migration from retarded to advanced regions. For this purpose, China was divided into three regions: advanced coastal region, retarded inland region and middle region. These regions were further divided into two areas (urban, rural) and two sectors (formal, informal), and a time-series data set (1978-2001) was constructed. Based on this data set, a three region-two area-two sector econometric model was developed and various simulations implemented. Inter-provincial migration and urbanization trends are important factors when discussing the development of the Chinese economy, trends in interregional disparity and perspectives of inland region development. However, statistical information, empirical surveys and econometric studies on the magnitude and patterns of internal migration, the extent of remittance by workers to their homeland, and the possible effects on migration are scarce. This paper aims to fill this gap. I first estimated the time trends of labor productivities in formal and informal sectors in urban and rural areas, and 30 interregional migration flows and 6 intraregional migration flows between various areas. I estimated the distribution of educational careers (semi-illiterate, elementary school, middle-school, senior-high-school and university graduates) in urban and rural areas, and introduced as an important explaining variable to affect the labor productivities and internal migration. According to the Harris-Todaro formula, the formal employment and unemployment exist in urban area, and the migration from rural to urban area is induced based on the comparison between the urban formal sector wage discounted by unemployment rate and the rural wage. In reality most of the unutilized labor in urban area are not completely unemployed, but are pooled as the employment in informal sector with low labor productivities. I intend to describe this tendency, and to present an internal migration model with most precise subdivision in developing economies. I constructed an econometric model based on the time-series data (1978-2004) of three regions, and implemented various simulations to clarify the effects of deregulation of internal migration, changes of educational career distribution, increase of foreign direct investment, and Western region development plan upon the economic growth and internal migration.JEL Classification: C01, C22, C51, J24

Subjective Measures of Employment Opportunities and Interregional Migration

Abstract. Empirical studies of interregional mobility routinely use regional unemployment differentials to characterize economic incentives to move between regions. In this paper, we present a new regional labour market indicator computed from survey data in which respondents are asked to evaluate local employment opportunities in their resident municipality and surroundings. The subjective measures of satisfaction with local employment opportunities have positive and significant impact on interregional migration flows, also when controlling for traditional measures of regional labour market conditions, including the regional unemployment rate. Contrary to most European studies, we find that regional labour market conditions have a strong effect on interregional migration flows.

Evaluating the Effects of Place-Marketing Campaigns on Interregional Migration in Sweden

During the last few years, Swedish municipalities have become increasingly engaged in competition to attract in-migrants. An important element of these efforts has been the use of place-marketing campaigns and promotion. Very little is known, however, about these attempts in terms of the number of municipalities involved, economic efforts, ways of marketing, target groups, etc. Furthermore, and more importantly, as for place-marketing studies in general, there have been few attempts at evaluation. The author's purpose is to provide an overview and to evaluate the effects of place-marketing efforts made by municipalities in Sweden to attract in-migrants. The empirical material is based largely on survey responses from 220 municipalities, and provides data for a general overview as well as for the evaluative approaches employed in the study. Among other findings, the results suggest that, although this kind of marketing has definitely become more important over the last few years, there is little evidence of any significant effects on interregional migration flows.

Migration Flows in Finland: Regional Differences in Migration Determinants and Migrant Types

The present study analyzes interregional migration flows in Finland during 1985-96 using a large sample from the longitudinal census data file. The regional concentration of population has sped up in recent years, and most migrants now head to five urban growth centers. The empirical analysis reveals that it is particularly the human capital component (young, educated individuals) that moves to, and stays in, the growth centers. They are attracted by the higher expected wages and employment chances. Conversely, some individuals, mainly older and less educated ones, move back to their original home regions. This countermovement reduces the speed of population concentration. Declining regions are nevertheless rapidly losing their most productive human capital through interregional migration flows.

Modeling interregional migration flows: Continuity and change

This paper addresses the question of how to formally represent the spatial structure of an observed origin‐destination‐specific pattern of interregional migration flows. Such a representation allows an analyst to compare the spatial structures of different migration regimes and contrast their changes over time. It also facilitates the indirect estimation of migration flows, in the absence of such data, by allowing the analyst to impose a particular age or spatial structure when observed flow data are inadequate, partial, or completely nonexistent. In this paper, we focus on the level and allocation aspects (or the generation and distribution components) of age‐specific interregional migration flows. We find that over time these flows exhibit strong regularities that can be captured by generalized linear models, which can then be used in situations where data are inadequate or missing to indirectly estimate interregional migration patterns.

Immigration and the regional demographics of the elderly population in the United States.

This research examined the impacts of past international and interregional migration flows on regional elderly population growth and distribution patterns. The authors used 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 Census data and multiregional demographic models to analyze changes in the sources of regional elderly population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions over time. Past elderly interregional migration patterns have exhibited considerable stability and have contributed less than aging-in-place in shaping regional elderly population geographies. Also the effects of immigration on elderly dependency ratios have been very modest. Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its level over the past decades has been insufficient to counteract the much stronger countervailing impact of population aging.

Contemporary Migration Processes in Russia

This article, abridged from the Russian original, was published by the Institute of Socio-Political Studies of the Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, in 1993. Irena Orlova, Y. Streltsova and E. Skvortsova work in the Department of Sociology of Migration at the Institute. Dr. Orlova is the Head of the Department. The article was translated by A. Benifand and R. Kovaleva, York University, and edited by R. Brym, Professor of Sociology, University of Toronto. The article examines the contribution of migration to Russian population dynamics, inter-regional migration flows, the growth of regional and ethnic separatism, human rights problems associated with migration, refugee issues, and the "brain drain" from Russia. It is based on official demographic statistics and a wide range of sociological surveys. It focuses mainly on the period 1990-93 and contains a brief postscript bringing the analysis up to date.

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two‐part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration.

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.

Migration and the metropolis: An empirical and theoretical analysis of inter-regional migration to and from South East England

Part 1 Empirical Analysis of Inter-Regional Migration Flows to and from South East England: The National Health Service central register data. The OPCS longitudinal study data. Part 2 Inter-Regional Migration to and from South East England in the Context of British Regional Development and Planning: Introduction. Economic conjuncture: short-term, surface-level processes-housing market boom and bust and the business cycle. Economic restructuring: medium-term, middle-level processes - spatial divisions of labour. Globalization: long-term, deep structural processes - South East England as an escalator region.

Migrations of the elderly in West Germany: Developments 1970-1990

The paper analyses interregional migration flows of the elderly in West Germany. The demographic and socio-economic structure of the migrants is described as well as types of migration such as amenity migrants preferring health-resorts, return migrants, and kinship and support-related migrants. Next, areas of origin, mostly cities and urban agglomerations, and areas of destination are presented, with special reference to migration flows of the young-old and the old-old. During the 1970s and 1980s the migration rates of the elderly declined considerably, particularly for long-distance migration and more so for retirement migration sensu stricto than for support-related flows. The last section of the paper discusses some arguments to explain this decrease.

METROPOLITAN AND NON‐METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

"The purpose of this paper is to discuss the recent dynamics of spatial population distribution in Canada. More specifically, we examine the effect of interregional migration flows on growth and decline in Canadian regions. Our analysis is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level, which supplements the information available in existing census-year studies and further clarifies the impact of international migrants on recent spatial population trends in Canada." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

State and regional policy implications of elderly migration.

This paper uses the 1980 Census data to estimate the size of the economic transfers associated with the 1985 to 1990 interregional migration of older persons. Total economic transfers are estimated by multiplying interregional migration flows of older persons by the average income of older persons in each migration stream. Assuming an average life expectancy of 15 years for elderly migrants and an expenditure multiplier of 2, the total redistribution of income as a result of 1985 to 1990 elderly migration is estimated to be over $600 billion. The South Atlantic and Mountain regions are the recipients of the largest positive net transfers; the East North Central and West North Central regions have the largest negative net transfers.

The dynamics of spatial labor mobility in the Netherlands.

"This paper discusses several factors that may explain [the] dynamic properties of internal labor migration. [The authors] focus especially on the influence of labor market and housing conditions on the mobility of people. A two-stage, generation-allocation model is proposed to investigate the role of different factors in the explanation of aggregate interregional migration flows. This model is applied to recent data on interprovincial labor migration in the Netherlands. The results indicate that housing supply seems to be an important determinant of temporal developments of spatial mobility, and that also the conditions on national and regional labor markets are associated with specific properties of recent migration patterns."

Exploratory analyses of interregional migration tables: an Austrian example

Mackinnon R. D. and Skarke A. M. (1977) Exploratory Analyses of Interregional Migration Tables: an Austrian Example, Reg. Studies 11, 99–111. Four different techniques of a rather simple type are used to analyze recent interregional migration flows in Austria. Purely descriptive methods are used to reduce the large data set to proportions which facilitate interpretation. Methods of Markov and matrix growth operator type are used to project future spatial redistribution of population arising from both migration and differences in the rates of natural increase. A least squares approach is used to measure the attractiveness and emissiveness of regions based on a revealed preference rationale. Finally, the biproportional method of updating economic input-output and transportation origin-destination tables is used to generate the most plausible changes in migration propensities which would give rise to a specified target population distribution.

Socio-economic and environmental indicators as determinants of interregional migration flows

The foregoing analysis indicates that environmental factors are relevant elements in demographic models, since environmental conditions appear to be one of the determinants of migration behaviour. Environmental discrepancies can be considered as relevant motives for migration decisions. Furthermore, to a certain extent one may state that environmental quality can be enhanced by public investments in parks, recreation facilities, and so forth. Therefore, these indirect public instruments might be partially used as instruments to influence spatial migration patterns. At a lower spatial scale (for example, at an urban level) the previous statements hold also true. The decline of population in big cities and the resulting suburbanization indicate that environmental quality determines also the decision to migrate, supposed the original job can be maintained. Here the environmental factors are formed by residential conditions in big cities, public and private facilities, shopping centres, recreation facilities, and congestion. Given the foregoing conclusion, it is evident that a control of urban- suburban movements can only be realized, if in big cities many public investments are implemented in order to enchance environmental quality (cf. Nijkamp (1975b)). An improvement of urban quality of life is a necessary condition to control suburbanization and to stimulate a process of re-urbanization. Obviously, much more research is required to study these elements adequately. An integration of social, environmental and socio-economic indicators seems to open promising possibilities and challenges for applied research in the field of spatial mobility.