Interplate Coupling Research Articles

Intermediate-depth seismicity and intraslab stress changes due to outer-rise faulting

Intermediate-depth seismicity is common in subducting slabs and the seismicity rate shows some statistically significant yet enigmatic global positive correlation with the maximal throw of outer-rise normal faults. Here, we have simulated the formation and subduction of outer-rise faults, using 2D thermomechanical numerical models of intra-oceanic subduction with coupled brittle-ductile damage of bending plates. We observed that outer-rise faults are formed episodically during slab segmentation and their maximal throw grows with time. When been subducted to intermediate depth, these faults are locally reactivated either by i) slab unbending/bending, simultaneous to the formation of new outer-rise faults or ii) episodic interplate coupling related to the rugged morphology of the faulted downgoing plate. Faults reactivation is concurrent with a local, transient deviatoric stress increase in intraslab domains among these structures. We suggest that slab domains affected by stress increase could be the appropriate location where potential brittle deformation can occur, generating intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes, that are predominantly localized in heterogeneous regions of dense faulting formed within slab-segments boundaries. The temporal coincidence of stress growth at intermediate depths and throw-growth of, newly-formed, outer-rise faults at the surface may possibly explain the observed global positive correlation of intermediate-depth seismicity rate with maximal fault throw.

Viscoelastic earthquake cycle model for the Caribbean subduction zone in northwestern Colombia: Implications of coastal subsidence for seismic/tsunami hazards

Recent interplate coupling results from the inversion of GPS data in northwestern Colombia have shed light on the seismogenic and tsunami potential along the Caribbean coast. The identified locked region on the subduction interface could generate an Mw8.0 earthquake every 600 years, followed by a tsunami. While observed horizontal velocities have been reproduced successfully by the elastic coupling model, vertical velocities remain unexplained and differ, both in their signs and magnitudes, from the model prediction. To explain 3-dimensional velocities, particularly rapid coastal subsidence, we evaluate the viscoelastic response of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system to an earthquake cycle at the Caribbean subduction zone. We confirm that the role of viscous relaxation on interseismic deformation is critical when the recurrence interval is longer than the asthenosphere relaxation time. Moreover, fitting observed crustal motions requires a strong lithosphere (60–100 km) consistent with the depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. Our results support the hypothesis of the Caribbean as a locus of seismic and tsunami hazards but do not resolve the vertical motion paradox at different time scales since the interseismic crustal motions recover completely the coseismic and postseismic displacements caused by the potential mainshock. Supplementary geological investigation is essential to validate our current interpretation and resolve the remaining gaps.

An electrical resistivity image of the Hikurangi subduction margin

SUMMARY Along the Hikurangi subduction margin, on the east coast of New Zealand's North Island, the interplate coupling changes from locked in the south to weakly coupled in the north. New magnetotelluric (MT) data from 151 locations linking previous MT surveys into a single contiguous data set that encompasses the weakly coupled part of the margin are analysed. By inverting the combined data we have constructed a 3-D image of the electrical resistivity of the subduction interface shear zone along a 300-km-long segment of the margin. Our results show that the electrical resistivity of the subduction interface shear zone is heterogenous; the degree of heterogeneity decreasing from north to south. The resistivity heterogeneities correlate well with the distribution of near-plate interface seismicity, Vp/Vs values and the pattern of areal strain rate derived from GPS data. These correlations are consistent with variations in the fluid content of the subduction interface shear zone. In the northern part of this segment, conductive areas adjacent to the interface are interpreted to be fluid rich areas where seismicity is sparse, Vp/Vs ratios are high and the areal strain rate is extensional. In contrast, where the areal strain rate is compressional the plate interface is more resistive, and seismicity is more abundant consistent with greater interplate friction. In the south, the resistivity of the plate interface is more homogenous, and the overlying plate is more resistive at shallower levels than in the north. Our results support the hypothesis that the fluid and/or hydrated clay content of the subduction interface shear zone are an important control on interplate coupling.

Mosaicking Andean morphostructure and seismic cycle crustal deformation patterns using GNSS velocities and machine learning

We use unsupervised machine learning techniques to analyze continental-scale crustal motions in areas affected by the seismic cycle of large subduction earthquakes along the Chilean Trench. Specifically, we use the agglomerative clustering algorithm as an exploratory tool to investigate spatial patterns in GNSS regional velocities without the complexity of modeling a physical source. We present a continental-scale velocity field including all available GNSS data for two-time windows (pre-2014, 2018–2021) that represents two periods with different deformation patterns of the seismic cycle. We test two different pre-processing methodologies for the design of machine learning features from the GNSS-derived velocities. The first method uses the direction and magnitude of the secular rates as input features to the clustering algorithm. These results show a clustering spatially related to seismic cycle deformation, separating latitudinal segments with different velocities in the fore-arc and back-arc, as well as regions affected by postseismic relaxation. Thus, highlighting the effectiveness of this method for mapping first-order patterns of active deformation in a subduction zone, that are particularly related to variations on interplate coupling and postseismic transient deformation. In a more sophisticated approach, we use surface strain and rotational rates from GNSS velocities as features in the second methodology. Here, we develop a novel methodology to estimate strain and rotation rates accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of the GNSS-network. We determine the spatial scale at which these features are estimated by least squares inversions, by using a Bayesian model class selection method. The distribution of stations allows to identify heterogeneities in strain and rotation rates at spatial scales larger than 50 km, being particularly notorious the main features of regional deformation at scales > 100 km. Interestingly, the results show a spatial correlation between seismic segmentation in the fore-arc and geologic and structural domains in the arc and back-arc. Our results demonstrate the ability of the combination of inverse and machine learning methods to efficiently identify active deformation patterns and their relationship to the subduction seismic cycle and regional-scale geological structures. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that Andean geological structures influence the observed deformation field.

Trench-parallel ridge subduction controls upper-plate structure and shallow megathrust seismogenesis along the Jalisco-Colima margin, Mexico

The parameters allowing for near-trench megathrust ruptures are debated and commonly involve the presence of site-dependent tectonic factors (e.g. rough subducting topography, amount of sediments), implying the need for direct geophysical observations. Here we use seismic imaging techniques to explore the mechanisms triggering shallow ruptures in the Rivera subduction zone, along the non-accretionary Jalisco-Colima continental margin, W Mexico, where three large (Mw~8) tsunamigenic megathrust earthquakes occurred in the last century. The seismic image reveals large interplate topographic variations morphologically alike to incoming trench-parallel ridges seaward of the study area. Ridge subduction only occurs along the southern non-accretionary margin of the Rivera system, where past earthquakes released large near-trench coseismic energy, indicating that subducting ridges enhance interplate coupling. Subducting ridges uplift the margin, causing upper-plate fracturing and low rigidity areas. Such elastic structure quantitatively explains the dynamics of slow and tsunamigenic ruptures in the past. We conclude that ridge subduction beneath the Jalisco-Colima continental margin promotes shallow seismogenesis and explains the large tsunamigenic potential of the area.

Anelastic deformation in the lower crust and its implications for tectonic dynamics in Kyushu, Southwest Japan

Most of the seismicity in inland Kyushu, southwest Japan occur in the localized intraplate shear zones which are Beppu-Shimabara Graben (BSG) and left-lateral shear zone (LSZ). One of the largest fault systems in Japan (Median Tectonic Line—MTL), and subduction zone of the Philippine Sea Plate also exist near Kyushu. These suggest that the island arc, such as Kyushu has a complex deformation process. This study estimated the anelastic strain rate in the lower crust and the interplate coupling rate via inversion analysis using Global Navigation Satellite System data to elucidate the seismotectonics. Deformation in the lower crust and interplate coupling were modeled by cuboid volumetric sources and a back slip model, respectively. To stabilize the solution, a L2 regularization constraint was applied to the anelastic strain rate. Further, constraints on direction and smoothing to the slip deficit rate were applied. These strength of the constraints were determined via the minimum value of the Akaike Bayesian information criterion. The analyses showed that the anelastic strain rate of the BSG and LSZ was ∼0.6 ×10−6 yr−1, and BSG was related to MTL activity. The findings also suggest that this anelastic deformation in the lower crust created a stress concentration zone in the upper crust of BSG and LSZ, with a stress change rate of ∼6–10 kPa·yr−1. The value is consistent with the stress drop and recurrence interval of regional earthquakes, suggesting that the seismicity around BSG and LSZ is strongly influenced by anelastic deformation in the lower crust. It is also suggested that BSG and LSZ development is influenced by slab rollback, and a subducting ridge. Lastly, a comparison between the deviatoric stress field estimated using focal mechanisms and the anelastic strain rate suggests the existence of a shear zone consisting of weak faults south of BSG.

Spatiotemporal distributions of afterslip and locking on the plate interface associated with the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using a 3-D temperature and strain rate-dependent heterogeneous viscosity model

We introduced a novel approach to produce a 3D heterogeneous viscosity distribution model of the upper mantle below Northeast Japan. The viscoelastic relaxation constitutes a significant portion of the postseismic deformation associated with a megathrust earthquake. Our viscosity distribution was based on a 3D simulation of thermomechanical modeling with realistic 3D oceanic plate geometry and subduction velocity of the Pacific plate in the upper mantle. After obtaining the thermal and strain-rate distributions obtained from the thermomechanical modeling, 3D viscosity distribution was calculated. We used the resulting viscosity distribution in a viscoelastic relaxation model to calculate the viscoelastic response associated with the MW 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, using a finite element method. We found it necessary to include an elastic cold nose in the mantle wedge and a low-viscosity layer at the subducted lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary to reproduce the observed onshore uplifts and landward horizontal displacements of the seafloor, respectively. We then divided the calculated viscoelastic displacements into 7 one-year intervals and subtracted them from the corresponding observed postseismic displacements to obtain yearly residual displacements. Assuming the residual displacements were the result of afterslip and subduction fault locking on the plate interface, we employed a time-dependent inversion to estimate the spatiotemporal distributions of afterslip and subduction fault locking. Our results showed decrease in the afterslip amount and extent over time, which primarily occurred during the first two years following the 2011 event, which is followed by gradual extension of the subduction fault locking region. We concluded that the plate interface off Northeast Japan is gradually entering an interseismic stage of interplate coupling and elastic strain accumulation within several years after the occurrence of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Statistical study on the regional characteristics of seismic activity in and around Japan: frequency-magnitude distribution and tidal correlation

AbstractWe propose a statistical analysis method to identify common features of seismic activity that are indistinguishable from most other seismicity, and to find anomalous activity that differs from these common features. Using the hypocenter catalog of earthquakes which occurs in and around Japan during the past 20 years, we apply this method for the parameters of the frequency-magnitude distribution and a parameter that expresses the correlation of seismicity with tides as indices, with a focus on objectively understanding the regional characteristics of seismicity. As a result, we extracted a "typical" probability density distribution of each index value common to the most analysis regions and "anomalous" regions with index-value distributions that differ significantly from the typical distributions. In terms of the frequency-magnitude distribution, most estimated values of indices in the anomalous activity areas can be explained as variations corresponding to the effects of fluids, interplate coupling, and stress fields that control faulting styles that have been pointed out in previous studies. By extracting typical index values for the frequency-magnitude distribution, common features of the frequency-magnitude distribution that depend on the earthquake occurrence interval were identified. Although seismicity showed no clear correlation with tides, the index value for tidal correlation changes to reflect the proportion of earthquakes occurring in a series of periods shorter than the tidal period; it is therefore useful as an index to capture the characteristics of such earthquake occurrence intervals. We also show that the typical probability density distribution of these index values can be represented by existing models or their extensions. By using the proposed models as a reference, it is possible to quantify the degree of anomaly using the same concept as that of the method presented here; hence, such a method should be applicable to monitor seismic activity. Graphical Abstract

Structural Heterogeneity of the Alaska‐Aleutian Forearc: Implications for Interplate Coupling and Seismogenic Behaviors

AbstractWe determine high‐resolution 3‐D seismic images (Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs) of the Alaska‐Aleutian forearc region, which are used to further estimate the serpentinization volume fraction of the subducting Pacific slab. Our results show that the hydration degree of the lower plate is high in the Shumagin Gap but relatively low in the Semidi and Kodiak segments, which roughly shows a trend of eastward decrease that is correlated with an increase of the interseismic slip deficit rate. The variation of slab serpentinization degree derived from our Vp model shows an uneven decreasing trend, well consistent with the along‐strike segmentation of interplate coupling and coseismic slip distributions of the 2020 Mw 7.8 Simeonof and 2021 Mw 8.2 Chignik megathrust earthquakes. The 2020 Mw 7.6 Sand Point earthquake took place within the strongly hydrated slab, whose occurrence was probably related to the variation of slip deficit rate that is probably affected by the changes in plate hydration. In addition, slow earthquakes occurred between the hydrated slab with pre‐subduction structures (e.g., bending faults, seamounts, and fracture zones) and the fluid‐saturated overriding crust and mantle wedge, where the intraslab seismicity and dehydration are intensive. These features suggest that lower‐plate hydration and dehydration may affect the interplate coupling and seismogenic behaviors in subduction zones.

Two-Staged Rupture of the 19 October 2020 Mw 7.6 Strike-Slip Earthquake Illuminated the Boundary of Coupling Variation in the Shumagin Islands, Alaska

Abstract On 19 October 2020, an Mw 7.6 earthquake occurred within the Shumagin Islands, Alaska, which is the largest strike-slip earthquake occurred in the shallow subducted plates with abundant seismic observations. Here, we relocated the earthquake sequence, implemented back-projection analyses, and finite-fault inversion to investigate the source processes of the mainshock, and calculated mainshock focal mechanisms using the polarities of P waves and W-phase inversion, respectively. Our results show that the faulting of the mainshock can be divided into two segments with the initial rupture along a steep plane (strike = 15°, dip = 81°) and propagation southeastward along a more shallowly dipping plane (strike = 344°, dip = 48°). The inferred strikes of the mainshock faults are similar to the orientations of preexisting structures in the source region, likely indicating that the 2020 Mw 7.6 earthquake ruptured along the preexisting plate fabric in the downgoing plate. The fabrics are located at the boundary with significant variations of the plate coupling, indicating that these structures within the subducting plate may affect the interplate coupling or as a result of the varying interplate coupling in subduction zones.

Thermally-constrained fluid circulation and seismicity in the Lesser Antilles subduction zone

At subduction zones, fluid circulation and elevated pore pressure are key factors controlling the seismogenic behavior along the plate interface by reducing absolute fault strength, increasing the time return of high magnitude co-seismic rupture and favoring aseismic slip. The Lesser Antilles is an end-member subduction zone where the slow subduction of numerous trans-oceanic fracture zones and patches of pervasively fractured, hydrated and serpentinized exhumed mantle rocks increase the water input. Heat-flow variations measured in the trench and the forearc during the Antithesis 1 cruise reveal heat advection by fluid circulation and shed a new light onto the thermal control of seismicity location in the subduction zone.In the Northern Lesser Antilles, heat-flow anomalies, negative in the trench and positive in the forearc, reveal a ventilated fluid circulation with downward percolation of cold fluids at the sediment-starved, pervasively fractured trench and upward discharge of warm fluids through the Tintamarre Fault Zone in the forearc. In contrast, in the Central Lesser Antilles, a positive heat-flow anomaly at the trench and the accretionary wedge is typical of an insulated fluid circulation where warm fluids invade the plate interface flowing updip from the subduction depths up to the trench.The investigated margin segments correspond with a very low number of interplate thrust earthquakes, illustrating the frequent statement that fluids in subduction zones tend to reduce the interplate coupling, favor slow to aseismic slip behavior, and increase the time return of large seismic events. Moreover, the location of intraslab, and supraslab earthquakes at depth beneath the Central Lesser Antilles suggest a close relation to temperature-related dehydration reactions.

Does tectonic deformation control episodic continental arc magmatism? Evidence from granitic magnetic fabrics (AMS)

This paper applies magnetic fabric analyses to plutons of the East Pacific continental arc. Continental arc magmatism is strongly episodic, with voluminous granitic magma addition occurring during discrete high-flux events (‘flare-ups’). The cause of these flare-ups is debated, variously invoking tectonic, mantle, or crustal controls. To understand how the syn-magmatic strain history changes during a flare-up, we compare granitic magnetic fabric (Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility, AMS) and geochronological data from the Antarctic Peninsula (Lassiter Coast), Sierra Nevada, and Chile. This comparison indicates a common pattern in orientation and magnitude of syn-magmatic deformation, showing flare-up events occur during increased tectonic compression driven by enhanced interplate coupling and fast subduction. Flare-ups terminate as tectonic compression reduces or the regime becomes extensional, even if convergence rates remain high. As with enhanced seismicity, magmatic flare-ups result from high tectonic compression, during discrete periods of enhanced interplate coupling within broader periods of increased subduction rates. The enhanced magmatic flux results either from crustal thickening leading to partial melting of a newly accreted, hydrous mafic underplate, enhanced melt segregation in the source, or in response to high tectonic compression rendering lithostatic compression the weakest compressive force, enhancing magma extraction and ascent from the mantle.

Deformation and uplift at the transition from oceanic to continental subduction, Sumba Island, Indonesia

• The Australian margin boundary collision produces forearc dextral transpression . • Interplate transfer of shear stress and forearc block escape induce trench migration. • Northeastward folding has been propagating across Sumba Island since the Pliocene . • One-third of Sumba Island was inundated by flexure and gravitational collapse . The transition along the strike of the Sunda subduction zone, from oceanic subduction in the west to subduction of continental Australian lithosphere in the east is envisioned as one of the canonical examples of the structural changes that take place within an overriding plate when a continental lithosphere wedge enters a subduction zone. Yet, the along-strike offset of the trench toward the Australian margin represents a structural response opposite to the predictions of numerical models. To understand this paradox, we analyse the morphotectonic evolution of Sumba island located at the transition from oceanic to continental Indo-Australian lithosphere subduction. Drainage evolution allows us to constrain the topographic evolution of the island since the Pliocene. Flights of uplifted coral reef terraces document Quaternary deformation. Focal mechanisms of shallow crustal earthquakes constrain the current stress field. Together, these data reveal that the island is affected by dextral en-échelon folding. Offshore, west of the island, reverse and strike-slip focal mechanisms evidence an active dextral transpressional zone. The emergence of the island and dextral shearing of the accretionary prism were triggered by subduction of the western lateral boundary of the Australian continental margin. We contend that the Plio-Quaternary tectonic evolution of the region, with transpression and migration of the trench toward the Australian margin is primarily dictated by shear stress transfer from the lower plate to the overriding plate, favored by strong interplate coupling, and by southwestward escape of the Savu-Sumba block following the impingement of the Australian continental margin against Timor island.

From Long‐ to Short‐Term Inter‐Plate Coupling at the Subducted Carnegie Ridge Crest, Offshore Central Ecuador

AbstractWe investigate the relationship between the long‐term (Quaternary) interplate coupling and the short‐term geodetically derived interseismic coupling at the Central Ecuador subduction zone. At this nonaccretionary margin, the Cabo Pasado shelf promontory and coastal area are associated with two inter‐plate geodetically locked patches. The deepest patch ruptured co‐seismically during the Mw7.8‐2016 Pedernales earthquake, while the shallowest underwent dominantly after‐slip. Marine geophysical and chronostratigraphic data allow reconstructing the Quaternary tectonic evolution of the shelf promontory and substantiating variation of the long‐term inter‐plate coupling that led to the geodetically locked patches. Prior to ∼1.8 Ma, the outer‐wedge inter‐plate coupling was strong enough to activate trench‐subparallel strike‐slip faults. Then, between ∼1.8 and 0.79 Ma, shortening and uplift affected the shelf promontory, implying a locally increased inter‐plate coupling. After a short, post‐0.79 Ma period of subsidence, shortening and uplift resumed denoting a high inter‐plate coupling that endured up to the present. The synchronicity of the structural evolution of the shelf promontory with the subduction chronology of two reliefs of the Carnegie Ridge crest suggests that the locked patches are caused by a geometrical resistance to subduction that propagates landward causing permanent deformation. In 2016, the deepest subducted relief localized stress accumulation and high seismic slip, while the shallowest relief, which is associated with a weakened outer‐wedge, prevented updip rupture propagation. Thus, at nonaccretionary margins, active outer‐wedge strike‐slip faults might be considered a proxy of near‐trench coupling, and subducted relief a cause of plate coupling but an obstacle to the tsunami genesis when the relief is shallow.

Spatiotemporal distributions of interplate coupling in Tohoku, northeast Japan, for 14 years prior to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake inverted from GNSS data

We extracted tectonic crustal deformation caused by the interplate coupling between the Pacific and North American plates from GNSS time series data at land-based stations in the Tohoku district, northeastern Japan, during the period from 21 March 1996 to 7 March 2011. Next, we estimated the spatiotemporal distributions of the slip deficit rates between the two plates prior to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake for the 1997–2010 period by performing time-dependent inversion analysis. As a result, two strongly coupled regions were identified. One is located off the coast of Iwate Prefecture, whose reliability may not be high, where coseismic slip of the Tohoku-oki earthquake was small, indicating that this area may be a source region for a future megathrust earthquake. The other is a region with strong and continuous interplate coupling of more than 8 cm/yr from 1997 to 2010 in and around the epicenter of the Tohoku-oki earthquake. This area coincides with the area where coseismic slip greater than 20 m was estimated. Decrease of interplate coupling by approximately 0.4 cm/yr was identified at the downdip side of the region during the period from 2003 to 2008, reaching a coupling of 1.5 cm/yr in 2008, which would yield an increase in shear stress at its shallower strongly coupled region. We also identified that in 2010, the strongly coupled region rapidly expanded in southwestern and downdip directions. These results suggest that the shear stressing rate in the strongly coupled region might be accelerated, reaching rupture strength because of these two effects, thereby causing the main shock.

Interplate Coupling and Seismic Potential in the Atacama Seismic Gap (Chile): Dismissing a Rigid Andean Sliver

AbstractGeodetically constrained interseismic interplate coupling has been widely used to assess seismic potential in subduction zones. Modeling interseismic deformation is challenging, as it involves interplate coupling and often ignores continental internal deformation processes. We present a novel methodology to jointly estimate interplate coupling along with upper plate rigid motion and surface strain, constrained by GNSS‐derived velocities. We use a least squares inversion with a spatially variable Equal Posterior Information Condition Tikhonov regularization, accounting for observational and elastic structure uncertainties. Our modeling reveals three megathrust regions with high tsunamigenic earthquake potential located within the Atacama Seismic Gap (Chile). This study indicates the presence of a downdip segmentation located just above the 1995 (Mw8.0) Antofagasta earthquake rupture, raising concerns for the potential of tsunamigenic earthquake occurrence at shallower depths. Additionally, we show that surface motion is dominated by strain, with rather negligible rigid motion, dismissing the rigid Andean microplate model typically assumed in previous studies.

Seismicity distribution in the Tonankai and Nankai seismogenic zones and its spatiotemporal relationship with interplate coupling and slow earthquakes

We conducted seismic tomography to estimate the seismic velocity structure and to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of interplate earthquakes of the Kii Peninsula, central Honshu, Japan, where the Tonankai and Nankai megathrusts are located. Microearthquakes were quantitatively detected by using the data from a cable-type seafloor seismic observation network, completed in 2015. Our velocity model was consistent with the previous 2-D active-source surveys, which reported the areal extent of key structures: a high-velocity zone beneath Cape Shionomisaki, a subducted seamount off Cape Muroto, and the subducted Paleo-Zenith Ridge. The absence of any other subducted seamount with the same or larger spatial scale, than the identified key structures, was confirmed. Our velocity model also revealed that there was not a simple relationship between areas of large coseismic slip or strong interplate coupling and areas of high velocity in the overriding plate. Relocated hypocenters widely ranged from the upper plate to within the slab, while the most active region was attributed to the oceanic crust in the aftershock region of 2004 off-Kii earthquake. Compared with the results from the land-based observation network, the accuracy of the focal depth estimation was substantially improved. Furthermore, we identified the seismic activity in the vicinity of the plate boundary and determined 14 locations for interplate seismicity areas. They were primarily distributed in the range of seismogenic zone temperature (150–350 °C) along the plate boundary and were located outside of the strong interplate coupling zone. Several active areas of interplate earthquakes exhibited clustered activity during the periods of slow-slip events, observed and accompanied with shallow very-low-frequency earthquakes. Thus, regular interplate microearthquakes became active at the plate boundary in the conjunction with slow slip. In summary, as regular earthquakes provide a more accurate source location than slow earthquakes and can detect events of smaller magnitude, monitoring such interplate earthquakes may reveal spatiotemporal variations in the stick–slip conditions on the plate boundary.

Time-independent forecast model for large crustal earthquakes in southwest Japan using GNSS data

In this study, we developed a regional likelihood model for crustal earthquakes using geodetic strain-rate data from southwest Japan. First, the smoothed strain-rate distributions were estimated from continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements. Second, we removed the elastic strain rate attributed to interplate coupling on the subducting plate boundary, including the observed strain rate, under the assumption that it is not attributed to permanent loading on crustal faults. We then converted the geodetic strain rates to seismic moment rates and calculated the 30-year probability for M ≥ 6 earthquakes in 0.2 × 0.2° cells, using a truncated Gutenberg–Richter law and time-independent Poisson process. Likelihood models developed using different conversion equations, seismogenic thicknesses, and rigidities were validated using the epicenters and moment distribution of historical earthquakes. The average seismic moment rate of crustal earthquakes recorded during 1586–2020 was only 13–20% of the seismic moment rate converted from the geodetic data, which suggests that the observed geodetic strain rate includes considerable inelastic strain. Therefore, we introduced an empirical coefficient to calibrate the moment rate converted from geodetic data with the moment rate of the earthquakes. Several statistical scores and the Molchan diagram showed all models could predict real earthquakes better than the reference model, in which earthquakes occur uniformly in space. Models using principal horizontal strain rates exhibited better predictive skill than those using the maximum horizontal shear strain rate. There were no significant differences in predictive skill between uniform and variable distributions for seismogenic thickness and rigidity. The preferred models suggested high 30-year probability in the Niigata–Kobe Tectonic Zone and central Kyushu, exceeding 1% in more than half of the analyzed region. The model predictive skill was also verified by a prospective test using earthquakes recorded during 2010–2020. This study suggests that the proposed forecast model based on geodetic data can improve the regional likelihood model for crustal earthquakes in Japan in combination with other forecast models based on active faults and seismicity.Graphical

Earthquake ruptures and topography of the Chilean margin controlled by plate interface deformation

Abstract. What controls the location and segmentation of mega-earthquakes in subduction zones is a long-standing problem in Earth sciences. Prediction of earthquake rupture extent mostly relies on interplate coupling models based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems providing patterns of slip deficit between tectonic plates. We here investigate if and how the strongly and weakly coupled patches revealed by these models relate to the distribution of deformation along the plate interface, i.e., basal erosion and/or underplating. From a mechanical analysis of the topography applied along the Chilean subduction zone, we show that extensive plate interface deformation takes place along most of the margin. We show that basal erosion occurs preferentially at 15 km depth while underplating does at 35 ± 10 and 60 ± 5 km depth, in agreement with P-T conditions of recovered underplated material, expected pore pressures and the spatial distribution of marine terraces and uplift rates. South of the Juan Fernández Ridge, large sediment input favors shallow accretion and underplating of subducted sediments, while along northern Chile, extensive basal erosion provides material for the underplating. We then show that, along the accretionary margin, the two last major earthquakes were limited along their down-dip end by underplating while, along the erosive margin, they were surrounded by both basal erosion and underplating. Segments with heterogeneously distributed deformation largely coincide with lateral earthquake terminations. We therefore propose that long-lived plate interface deformation promotes stress build-up and leads to earthquake nucleation. Earthquakes then propagate along fault planes shielded from this long-lived permanent deformation, and are finally stopped by segments of heterogeneously distributed deformation. Slip deficit patterns and earthquake segmentation therefore reflect the along-dip and along-strike distribution of the plate interface deformation. Topography acts as a mirror of distributed plate interface deformation and should be more systematically studied to improve the prediction of earthquake ruptures.

Role of fluids and seamount subduction in interplate coupling and the mechanism of the 2021 Mw 7.1 Fukushima-Oki earthquake, Japan

The frequent occurrence of large thrust earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis in a subduction zone are attributed to multiple factors, including structural heterogeneity, fluid saturation, and topographic variations of the subducting oceanic plate. To investigate these impacts on the generation of the 2021 Mw 7.1 Fukushima-Oki earthquake and interplate seismic coupling of the northeastern (NE) Japan subduction zone, high resolution three-dimensional (3-D) seismic structures of velocities (Vp, Vs) and Poisson's ratio (σ) were determined through a multi-parameter joint inversion method using 328,625 travel times of P- and S-wave receiver-source pairs from the earthquakes recorded by onshore seismic stations and ocean bottom seismometers. We found that more than 92.5% of M 6+ thrust earthquakes occurred in and around high-V zones, while less than 7.5% of the quakes were located in low-V patches. The high-V zones with high density M ≥ 6.0 thrust earthquakes (including the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku mainshock) were thought to indicate strong interplate seismic coupling (asperities), while the low-V patches lacking large thrust-earthquakes reflected weak interplate coupling or decoupling. The present results revealed that seamount (including the Joban seamount chain and the bulgy Kitamachi volcanic batholith) subduction had a significant influence on seismography and the mechanical strength variation of interplate coupling in the forearc seismogenic zone. It was demonstrated that structural heterogeneities associated with fluids and seamount subduction played a fundamental role in interplate seismic coupling and large thrust-earthquake generation along the slab upper boundary in the NE Japan subduction zone.