Spatiotemporal distributions of interplate coupling in Tohoku, northeast Japan, for 14 years prior to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake inverted from GNSS data

Abstract

We extracted tectonic crustal deformation caused by the interplate coupling between the Pacific and North American plates from GNSS time series data at land-based stations in the Tohoku district, northeastern Japan, during the period from 21 March 1996 to 7 March 2011. Next, we estimated the spatiotemporal distributions of the slip deficit rates between the two plates prior to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake for the 1997–2010 period by performing time-dependent inversion analysis. As a result, two strongly coupled regions were identified. One is located off the coast of Iwate Prefecture, whose reliability may not be high, where coseismic slip of the Tohoku-oki earthquake was small, indicating that this area may be a source region for a future megathrust earthquake. The other is a region with strong and continuous interplate coupling of more than 8 cm/yr from 1997 to 2010 in and around the epicenter of the Tohoku-oki earthquake. This area coincides with the area where coseismic slip greater than 20 m was estimated. Decrease of interplate coupling by approximately 0.4 cm/yr was identified at the downdip side of the region during the period from 2003 to 2008, reaching a coupling of 1.5 cm/yr in 2008, which would yield an increase in shear stress at its shallower strongly coupled region. We also identified that in 2010, the strongly coupled region rapidly expanded in southwestern and downdip directions. These results suggest that the shear stressing rate in the strongly coupled region might be accelerated, reaching rupture strength because of these two effects, thereby causing the main shock.