Viscoelastic earthquake cycle model for the Caribbean subduction zone in northwestern Colombia: Implications of coastal subsidence for seismic/tsunami hazards

Abstract

Recent interplate coupling results from the inversion of GPS data in northwestern Colombia have shed light on the seismogenic and tsunami potential along the Caribbean coast. The identified locked region on the subduction interface could generate an Mw8.0 earthquake every 600 years, followed by a tsunami. While observed horizontal velocities have been reproduced successfully by the elastic coupling model, vertical velocities remain unexplained and differ, both in their signs and magnitudes, from the model prediction. To explain 3-dimensional velocities, particularly rapid coastal subsidence, we evaluate the viscoelastic response of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system to an earthquake cycle at the Caribbean subduction zone. We confirm that the role of viscous relaxation on interseismic deformation is critical when the recurrence interval is longer than the asthenosphere relaxation time. Moreover, fitting observed crustal motions requires a strong lithosphere (60–100 km) consistent with the depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. Our results support the hypothesis of the Caribbean as a locus of seismic and tsunami hazards but do not resolve the vertical motion paradox at different time scales since the interseismic crustal motions recover completely the coseismic and postseismic displacements caused by the potential mainshock. Supplementary geological investigation is essential to validate our current interpretation and resolve the remaining gaps.