International Trade Network Research Articles

Research on the Relationship Between International Trade and Network

In a rapidly globalizing world economy, international trade is undergoing unprecedented growth, marked by technological advancements, energy demand, and currency fluctuations. This study explores the intricate interplay between trade networks and international commerce. As the global economy transforms, this research sheds light on key trends and characteristics shaping the international trade landscape. Through an extensive review of relevant literature, this paper investigates the role of trade networks in international trade dynamics. It delves into the significance of network structures and their impact on trade patterns, revealing insights about the core-periphery structure where advanced economies dominate while others form the periphery. The study focuses on the international trade network's features, including its virtualization, globalization, and intelligent attributes. It examines how businesses adapt to digitalization, interact through virtual platforms, and embrace the knowledge-driven nature of modern trade networks. Additionally, the research explores the implications of trade networks for enterprises, emphasizing market penetration, supply chain efficiency, brand influence, technological innovation, and resource integration. The study highlights the works of various scholars who have analyzed international trade networks. Research findings underscore the importance of understanding network structures, role centrality, and the impact of digitalization on global trade. By analyzing the evolution of trade networks and their implications for different economies, this study offers valuable insights for policymakers and businesses navigating the complex landscape of international trade. Overall, this thesis contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between international trade and network structures, paving the way for more informed decisions in a rapidly changing global trade environment.

Forecasting global spread of invasive pests and pathogens through international trade

AbstractNon‐native plant pests and pathogens threaten biodiversity, ecosystem function, food security, and economic livelihoods. As new invasive populations establish, often as an unintended consequence of international trade, they can become additional sources of introductions, accelerating global spread through bridgehead effects. While the study of non‐native pest spread has used computational models to provide insights into drivers and dynamics of biological invasions and inform management, efforts have focused on local or regional scales and are challenged by complex transmission networks arising from bridgehead population establishment. This paper presents a flexible spatiotemporal stochastic network model called PoPS (Pest or Pathogen Spread) Global that couples international trade networks with core drivers of biological invasions—climate suitability, host availability, and propagule pressure—quantified through open, globally available databases to forecast the spread of non‐native plant pests. The modular design of the framework makes it adaptable for various pests capable of dispersing via human‐mediated pathways, supports proactive responses to emerging pests when limited data are available, and enables forecasts at different spatial and temporal resolutions. We demonstrate the framework using a case study of the invasive planthopper spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula). The model was calibrated with historical, known spotted lanternfly introductions to identify potential bridgehead populations that may contribute to global spread. This global view of phytosanitary pandemics provides crucial information for anticipating biological invasions, quantifying transport pathways risk levels, and allocating resources to safeguard plant health, agriculture, and natural resources.

Modular Structures of Trade Flow Networks in International Commodities

We explore the evolution of modular structure within the International Trade Network (ITN) for eight commodities, employing the Louvain module optimization method. The interactions among countries in the realm of trade are shaped by various factors, including economic conditions and geographical proximity. These countries are often categorized into continental groups, a classification that frequently persists even after the detecting process of modules. Nonetheless, African countries display a penchant for shifting among different modules over time. Observations of module trends unveil the increase in regional trade up until 2005, followed by plateaus marked with interruptions during significant crises, such as the 2012–2014 EU recession and the 2018 trade war. Notably, the 2018 trade war witnessed a sharp upsurge in module, attributed to robust alliances between major players like China and the USA. These modular dynamics are not uniform across different commodities; they exhibit varying degrees of module and distinct responses during times of crisis, with human-made goods displaying heightened sensitivity. Core nations, such as the USA, Germany, China, and Japan, exert significant influence over the commodities and often demonstrate a cohesive approach when navigating through crises. The analysis of modular dynamics provides valuable insights into global trade trends, fostering sustainability in trade practices, and comprehending the impacts of crises on various commodities.

Food security and multicommodity agricultural international trade: Quantifying optimal consumer subsidies for nutritional needs

AbstractHundreds of millions of people are now facing food insecurity as challenges from climate change, the aftereffects of the COVID‐19 pandemic, and strife and conflicts make availability of food at reasonable prices challenging. International trade has enabled the reallocation of agricultural products, essential for nutrition, from countries with supply markets to other points of demand and has been the subject of an increasing number of policy interventions by governments. In this paper, a multicommodity international trade network equilibrium model is constructed with the inclusion of nutritional minimal standards to support food security, accompanied by consumer subsidies, for which explicit formulae are provided. The theoretical and computational framework is based on variational inequalities. Numerical examples focusing on Ukraine and MENA (Middle Eastern and North African) countries and a staple commodity of wheat demonstrate the modeling and policy framework.

Multicommodity international agricultural trade network equilibrium: Competition for limited production and transportation capacity under disaster scenarios with implications for food security

The number of people affected by disasters, including man-made ones, is on the rise globally, with rising food insecurity being one of the most critical impacts. Disasters, both sudden-onset and slow-onset ones, can cause disruptions to the production and transportation of agricultural commodities. Having the tools that can quantitatively assess the changes in agricultural commodity shipment volumes and their prices under disruptions caused by disaster scenarios is of major importance. In this paper, we utilize the theory of variational inequalities as the methodology to construct a multicommodity international agricultural trade network equilibrium model, which contains novel features of capacities on the production and transportation of multiple agricultural commodities to capture competition. The model includes exchange rates and accounts for multiple routes and possibly distinct transportation modes and combinations. Theoretical results are given and an algorithm is proposed. A series of numerical examples, both illustrative and algorithmically solved ones, inspired by Russia’s war on Ukraine, highlight the effects of reduced production and transportation capacities on food security in the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries of Lebanon and Egypt. We also include sensitivity analysis results for exchange rates. The solutions reveal insights into the importance of the production and transportation capacities regarding food security, along with having multiple transportation routes that are cost-efficient as well as the importance of the magnitude of exchange rates.

Evolving community structure in the international pesticide trade networks

The statistical properties of the international trade networks of all commodities as a whole have been extensively studied. However, the international trade networks of individual commodities often behave differently. Due to the importance of pesticides in agricultural production and food security, we investigated the evolving community structure in the international pesticide trade networks (iPTNs) of five categories from 2007 to 2018. We reveal that the community structures in the undirected and directed iPTNs exhibit regional patterns. However, the regional patterns are very different for undirected and directed networks and for different categories of pesticides. Moreover, the community structure is more stable in the directed iPTNs than in the undirected iPTNs. We also extract the intrinsic community blocks for the directed international trade networks of each pesticide category. It is found that the largest intrinsic community block is the most stable, appears in every pesticide category, and contains important economies (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal) in Europe. Other important and stable intrinsic community blocks are Canada and the United States in North America, Argentina and Brazil in South America, and Australia and New Zealand in Oceania. These results suggest that, in the international trade of pesticides, geographic distance and the complementarity of important and adjacent economies are significant factors.

Climate policy boosts trade competitiveness: Evidence from timber trade networks

Climate policy affects the economy. Economists typically consider the economic costs associated with climate policy, but not all economic consequences of climate policy are necessarily negative. This paper considers the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the international trade network for timber products and the competition graph derived therefrom. Implementing an instrumental variables difference-in-differences approach which uses a panel of centrality and clustering measures describing the relative importance of individual nations in the international trade network for timber products, this paper finds that nations that set a binding emissions target under the Kyoto Protocol saw the centrality of their position within this network decrease. Since the nations which set binding emissions targets were also the wealthiest nations, an additional consequence is that less wealthy economies became relative more important members of this international trade network. This is likely due to nations with a binding emissions target placing an increased importance on forested land for carbon sequestration. These results are extended to the competition graph of the international trade network for timber products where it is found that nations with binding emissions targets became marginally less important. However, increased clustering among nations with binding emissions targets in the competition graph occurred as a consequence of the Kyoto Protocol. Collectively, these results indicate that the competitive playing field was leveled in the international timber trade network while helping make progress towards multiple economically and environmentally oriented United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Avian influenza’s decimation of the poultry food supply requires open discussion of new strategies. Proceeding of The First International Avian Influenza Summit, University of Arkansas- October 16-17, 2023"

Avian influenza outbreaks have emerged as a critical threat to global food security as they continue to devastate poultry populations worldwide. This paper addresses the urgent need for an open and comprehensive discussion of novel strategies to mitigate the impact of avian influenza on the poultry food supply chain. The review integrates current scientific literature, epidemiological data, and socio-economic analyses to underscore the severity of the crisis. It highlights the complex interplay between viral evolution, poultry production practices, and international trade networks, emphasizing the multifaceted challenges faced by stakeholders in the poultry industry. The paper evaluates the existing approaches to avian influenza control and containment, examining their limitations and potential for improvement. It also explores emerging technologies, such as advanced surveillance systems, rapid diagnostic tools, and vaccine development, which offer promising avenues for proactive prevention and early intervention. Additionally, the discussion extends to alternative production models, including biosecure facilities, diversified farming practices, and sustainable supply chain management, as potential strategies to enhance resilience in the face of future outbreaks. Furthermore, the socio-economic repercussions of avian influenza outbreaks are examined, emphasizing their disproportionate impact on vulnerable communities and economies heavily reliant on poultry production. The paper underscores the importance of equitable distribution of resources and knowledge sharing to build global preparedness and response capacity. In conclusion, this review advocates for an open and collaborative discourse among stakeholders, including scientists, policymakers, industry leaders, and civil society, to collectively address the avian influenza crisis. It calls for a holistic approach that encompasses enhanced surveillance, innovative technologies, and diversified production methods while prioritizing inclusivity and equity in implementation. By fostering a transparent and forward-thinking dialogue, the global community can forge a resilient and sustainable future for the poultry food supply chain in the face of evolving avian influenza threats.

A resilience measure for the international nickel trade network

The current rise in global trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts have had a definite impact on the development of the nickel trade network. Therefore, this paper takes a comprehensive view of the nickel industry chain, considers four types of nickel trade in the upstream and downstream, and carves out a directionally weighted trade network. The evolution of the structural resilience of the nickel trade network over the period 2001–2021 is first measured under deliberate attack or random attack, and a three-dimensional spatially-weighted vector modelling framework based on the Data Envelopment Analysis common set of weight model is proposed to assess the resilience of the nickel trade network in terms of three dimensions: absorptive capacity, buffering capacity, and recovery capacity. The results show that structural resilience of the nickel trade network has improved over the period 2001–2021, but that the network will become paralyzed if 10%–20% of nodes are deliberately attacked. The absorptive capacity, buffering capacity, and recovery capacity of the nickel network are all low when major demand-driven nations like U.S., China, U.K, Germany, and Netherlands are attacked. Finally, recommendations are made to improve the security and stability of the nickel trade.

Comparative study on the international coal trade network before and after COVID-19 outbreak

COVID-19 that broke out at the end of 2019 made countries to implement strict blockade measures to curb the spread of the virus. These measures have seriously disrupted the coal import and export trade, causing a significant impact on the coal trade network. This study aims to investigate the disparities between coal trade networks before and after COVID-19 outbreak. First, using complex network theory, we constructed global coal trade networks for the years 2019 and 2020. Subsequently, utilizing a cascading failure model, we developed a coal supply risk propagation framework. Through an analysis of network topology and theoretical supply risk propagation, we explored the similarities and differences of the coal trade networks during these 2 years. In terms of network topology structure, our findings reveal a decrease in trade tightness in the coal trade network of 2020 compared to 2019. Moreover, the Netherlands no longer retains its significance as an important trade hub country in 2020. Looking at the theoretical perspective of supply risk transmission, we observed that in 2020, COVID-19 resulted in a higher number of countries experiencing crisis outbreaks compared to 2019. However, it is noteworthy that the core countries within the coal trade network have remained consistent, and their roles as either net importers or net exporters have not changed. This indicates that the position of coal core countries is very stable. Therefore, no matter what happens, the country should pay timely attention to the dynamics of core countries. Interestingly, in 2020, the risk associated with coal supply did not conform to the spatial patterns typically seen in trade. For instance, the Russian Federation, identified as a country facing a crisis outbreak, transmits supply risks to geographically distant regions in West Asia, including countries like Ghana and Western Sahara.

Augmented Gravity Model of Trade with Social Network Analysis

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development recognizes international trade as an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction, and an important means to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Given this role, international trade and global trade networks have received preeminent attention in recent times due to the sharp growth in trade volumes and their contributions to poverty reduction and sustainable development over the years. Despite the growth in global trade volumes and the associated benefits, there are worrying concerns about the unprecedented changes in international trade patterns and growing imbalances in trade in recent times. Whereas China’s trade volumes have more than tripled over recent decades and have maintained the largest trade surplus spot ahead of Germany, other major trade surplus countries such as Japan, the USA, etc., have become trade deficit countries with their trade volumes increasing at a much slower pace. In view of the growing changes in international trade patterns and the need to understand the dynamics of the widening global trade imbalances among major trading partners, this paper investigates the factors that determine the export performance of countries. More specifically, the purpose of this paper is to highlight the forces that determine the export performance of countries using an augmented gravity model that includes social networks. The paper provides useful insights into the underlying currents responsible for the changes in international trade patterns. Using data from 51 countries for 41 years, our results indicate that the GDP of both the home country and the partner country affects the home country’s exports positively. Similarly, the real effective exchange rate REER, trade openness OPEN, and dummy variables BORDER, ENGLISH, and EU have produced positive and statistically significant coefficient estimates, and these are in line with our theoretical expectations.

Quantifying the temporal stability of international fertilizer trade networks

Abstract The importance of fertilizers to agricultural production is undeniable, and most economies rely on international trade for fertilizer use. The stability of fertilizer trade networks is fundamental to food security. However, quantifying the temporal stability of a fast-growing system, such as the international fertilizer trade, requires a multi-dimensional perception. Therefore, we propose a new method, namely the structural inheritance index, to distinguish the stability of the existing structure from the influence of the growing process. The well-known mutual information and Jaccard index are calculated for comparison. We use the three methods to measure the temporal stability of the overall network and different functional sub-networks of the three fertilizer nutrients N, P and K from 1990 to 2018. The international N, P and K trade systems all have a trend of increasing stability with the process of globalization. The existing structure in the fertilizer trading system has shown high stability since 1990, implying that the instability calculated by the Jaccard index in the early stage comes from the emergence of new trade. The stability of the K trade network is concentrated in large sub-networks, meaning that it is vulnerable to extreme events. The stable medium sub-network helps the N trade become the most stable nutrient trade. The P trade is clearly in the role of a catch-up player. Based on the analysis of the comparisons of three indicators, we concluded that all three nutrient trade networks enter a steady state.

Analysis of the international trade networks of COVID-19 medical products

This research aimed to gain a deeper understanding of how and for what reasons the world trade networks of medical products were reorganized during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. To do this, first, the trade data of eight COVID-19-related product categories (such as medical test kits and protective garments) were collected for the years 2019 and 2020. Then it was examined which countries’ exports and imports changed the most between the studied time period in each product category. In addition, gravity models containing additional economic, geographic, and COVID-19-related variables were used to analyze the impact of the pandemic on the investigated trade networks. Based on the results, China achieved the highest cumulative export growth, surpassing the second-highest value by approximately 14.66. Hungary, with a population of only 9.7 million, stood out as a major importer of ventilators. Additionally, a higher incidence of COVID-19 among importers typically led to reduced traded values, while European Union membership and innovation capacity had the opposite effect.

Национальная стратегическая сила стран, международная торговля и экономическая успешность стран в нестабильном мире

This research is part of a larger project on modeling national power and security indicators. It involved the method of multidimensional statistical analysis as an integral indicator that characterizes the total potential of each country, as well as the strategic development of its socio-ecological and economic system. The national economic potential in the international trade network was represented as a graph that illustrates the trade flows between countries. The centrality index marked the importance of a particular country in the international trade network, i.e., its ability to affect other countries, and its vulnerability, i.e., its dependence on other countries. The graph took into account the national power of the country, its partner countries, and the commodity circulation between them. The authors used the case of the global pandemic crisis and the local sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 to study the adaptive ability of powerful national economies. The research resulted in two regression models. The model of the economic bloc of the national power took into account the trade volume and the vulnerability index in the international trade network. The model of national GDP growth relied on the growth of the economic bloc of national power, the trade volume, and the increase in exports, as well as the vulnerability index in the international trade network.

Analysis on the Legal System of International Technology Trade Management Based on Data Mining Analysis

With the rapid development of computer and information technology, people can obtain and store data in a faster and cheaper way, which makes the amount of data and information grow exponentially. Based on data mining technology, this paper systematically analyzes and compares the basic situation and evolution of international trade networks and international human relations networks using the bilateral trade data and human relations data of countries and regions in the world. The research shows that the strength external entropy, strength internal entropy, and network weight entropy of the whole international trade network from 2008 to 2014 are generally lower than 0.75. The whole network still showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2015, but it began to rise steadily after 2016. The monopolistic behavior in international technology trade has a significant impact on the fundamental freedoms and rights of citizens.

Economic importance and structural robustness of the international pesticide trade networks

Pesticides are agricultural inputs that can significantly reduce yield losses, regulate plant growth, effectively liberate agricultural productivity, and improve food security. The availability of pesticides in economies worldwide is ensured by redistribution through international trade, with different economies playing different roles in this process. In this study, we measured and ranked the importance of economies using nine node metrics. We found that the clustering coefficient was negatively correlated with the other eight node metrics, whereas the other eight node metrics were positively correlated with each other and could be grouped into three communities (betweenness; in-degree, PageRank, authority, and in-closeness; out-degree, hub, and out-closeness). We further investigated the structural robustness of international pesticide trade networks proxied by large component size under three types of shocks to economies (node removal in descending, random, and ascending orders). The results showed that, except for the clustering coefficient, international pesticide trade networks are relatively robust under shocks to economies in ascending order but fragile under shocks to economies in descending order. By contrast, removing nodes with a clustering coefficient in ascending and descending order yielded similar robustness curves. Moreover, the structural robustness related to large component size evolved over time and exhibited an inverse U-shaped pattern.

Dynamics of international Trade: A 30-year analysis of key exporting nations.

This article aims to analyze the evolution of trading networks, emphasizing aspects of centrality and reciprocity among the major exporting nations, specifically, the U.S., China, India, Japan, and South Korea, from 1992 to 2020. The study problem we address is how these network structures have shifted over time, and what the implications of these changes are for international economic relations and policy. We further consider the impact of major global events on these trade networks and how they have shaped the evolution of these networks. We utilized three distinct methods. First, we examined time-series trade data during the study period and quantified network reciprocity through the sum of squared trade imbalances across different product categories. Second, we visualized these trade networks using arrows, with their sizes being proportional to the trade value between each pair of countries; significant trade relationships were indicated by arrows with a standard deviation value of 55 or above. Finally, we introduced a new cluster analysis methodology for studying the evolution of network structures over time. This method utilized an 80-dimensional vector representation of the annual networks, divided into four categories, and the resulting structures were visualized as dendrograms using R software. The network structure has become more reciprocal for most product categories, and the center of the network has shifted from the U.S. to China for all product categories, except for consumer goods and raw materials. The study also highlights the significant impact of global events and crises such as 9/11 attacks on the international trade network structure. Our findings inform several policy recommendations. These include encouraging balanced trade for economic stability and improved international relations, realigning trade focus in response to the shift in trade network center, and developing resilience policies that account for the substantial impact of global events on trade networks.

Analysis on evolution characteristics and influencing factors of global energy pattern under anti-globalization background

With the rapid development of international energy trade, its structure has shown a trend toward complexity and network development. The traditional unilateral or bilateral perspective of causal analysis can no longer explain the changes in the international energy trade network at this stage. This paper constructs the world energy trade network from 2000 to 2020, analyzes the structural characteristics of the network, and adopts the quadratic assignment procedure method to deconstruct and explain the structural evolution of the world energy trade network. The study shows that the global energy trade network is increasingly connected and has small-world characteristics; the growing global energy demand coexists with the increasing energy monopoly; GDP difference and geographical distance are the decisive factors in forming an international energy trade network. It is suggested that countries should strengthen the integrated development of energy trade; formulate differentiated regional policies according to the structure and economic development characteristics of national and regional energy trade; pay more attention to the hub vertexes in the international energy trade network; and formulate differentiated energy strategies for countries and regions with different development levels, taking into account their development situations.

Features and Evolution of Global Energy Trade Patterns from the Perspective of Complex Networks

As an integral part of economic trade, energy trade is crucial to international dynamics and national interests. In this study, an international energy trade network is constructed by abstracting countries as nodes and representing energy trade relations as edges. A variety of indicators are designed in terms of networks, nodes, bilaterals, and communities to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the global energy trade network from 2001 to 2020. The results indicate that network density and strength have been steadily increasing since the beginning of the 21st century. It is observed that the position of the United States as the core of the international energy market is being impacted by emerging developing countries, thus affecting the existing trade balance based on topological analysis. The weighted analysis of bilateral relations demonstrates that emerging countries such as China, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia are pursuing closer cooperation. The community analysis reveals that an increasing number of countries possess strong energy trade capabilities, resulting in a corresponding increase in energy trade volumes.

Regionalisation and cross-region integration. Twin dynamics in the automotive international trade networks

The paper analyses the changes that occurred over 25 years in the geography of trade in automotive parts and components. Using the Infomap multilayer clustering algorithm, we identify clusters of countries and their specific trades in the automotive international trade network, we measure the relative importance of each cluster and the interconnections between them, and we analyse the contribution of countries and of trade of components and parts in the clusters. The analysis highlights the formation of denser and more hierarchical networks generated by Germany's trade relations with EU countries and by the US preferential trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, as well as the surge of China. While the relative importance of the main clusters and of some individual countries change significantly, connections between clusters increase over time.