International Trade Network Research Articles

Gaussianization of the spectra of graphs and networks. Theory and applications

Matrix functions of the adjacency matrix are very useful for understanding important structural properties of graphs and networks, such as communicability, node centrality, bipartivity, and many more. They are also intimately related to the solution of differential equations describing dynamical processes on graphs and networks. Here, we propose a new matrix function based on the Gaussianization of the adjacency matrix of a graph. This function gives more weight to a selected reference eigenvalue λ ref , which may be located in any region of the graph spectra. We show here that this matrix function can be derived from physical models that consider the interactions between nearest and next-nearest neighbors in the graph. We first obtain a few mathematical results for the trace of this matrix function when λ ref = − 1 ( H − 1 ) for simple graphs as well as for random graphs. We also provide a combinatorial interpretation of this index in terms of subgraphs in the graph, and in terms of the competition pressure among agents in a complex system. Finally, we apply this index to the study of magnetic properties of molecules emerging due to spin interactions as well as to studying the temporal evolution of the international trade network in the period 1992–2002. In both cases we give a clear phenomenological interpretation of the processes described.

The relationship between international trade and capital flow: A network perspective

The relationship between international trade and capital flow has been extensively discussed. Using bilateral data from 2001 to 2016, we construct international trade and capital flow networks, defined as a weighted graph in which nodes are countries and edges represent trade and capital flow linkages. Centrality is employed as the main variable in this study to represent the importance of a country in the networks. To gain further insight into the network characteristics, we adopt a turning-parameter centrality to combine both the original degree and strength measurements within the weighted network. Moreover, we develop a new indicator called “partner quality centrality” to identify the quality of neighbors. Within the panel cointegration framework, we argue that a positive long-run equilibrium exists between the trade and capital flow networks as constructed. In addition, we employ a panel causality test to investigate the short-run dynamics, indicating that the international capital flow network has predictive power on the trade network from the short-run perspective but not vice versa.

Dependency network of international oil trade before and after oil price drop

An unexpected price drop beginning in 2014 has resulted in significant changes in the global crude oil market. This paper investigates the dependency network of the international oil trade and focuses on its changes after the oil price drop. Point-wise mutual information is used to quantify oil trade dependencies, and complex network methods are applied to analyze dependencies at both the country and world levels. The results show that the USA has constructed stable friendships with peripheral countries, and its dependency on traditional oil-producing areas in the Middle East and Africa has decreased significantly. The dependency between Russia and its major partners has undergone a U-curve; it decreased significantly from 2014 to the first half of 2016 and then recovered in late 2016 and 2017. India and its major import sources maintained a stable high dependency during the research period. Community analysis of the dependency network shows structural differences between 2014 and 2017. Large countries such as the USA and Russia changed their community after 2014. The results show that the global oil trade relationships changed considerably after 2014. The new features of dependency and its implications should be considered by policy makers and company managers.

Distance-varying assortativity and clustering of the international trade network–ADDENDUM

In the original publication of this article (Abbate et al. 2018), a disclaimer was omitted. The authors wish to state the following:The views expressed in this study are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect those of the Swiss National Bank.The authors regret the omission.

The structure and evolution of trade relations between countries along the Belt and Road

Trade facilitation is one of the five main agendas of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Social network analysis has helped understand the complexity of trade networks, but existing studies tend to overlook the fact that not all bilateral trade relations are equally important to a country. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper focuses on the top 2 trade relations networks to illuminate the structure and evolution of B&R trade relations, the relative positions of different countries, and changes in the composition of trade communities (e.g., the community leaders) and the changing patterns of trade between them. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. The overall international trade networks of B&R countries experienced a leadership change from Russia to China on one hand, some temporary communities experienced emergence, disappearance (e.g. the Kuwait- and Thailand-led communities) or reemergence (e.g. Poland-led community), and a community membership was generally consistent on the other hand. Since the future impacts of China’s BRI will depend on the degree of integration of the connected regions, some countries with stable and high centrality indices (e.g. Russia, Singapore, Serbia, Greece, Turkey, Iran, Poland, Hungary and Romania) could be selected by China as strategic regional partners, and countries with a strategically important geographical position but weak trade links (e.g. Myanmar, Pakistan, and Belarus) should be prioritized.

Anahilapura: Understanding Its Expansive Network during the Time of the Chaulukyas

Abstract Gujarat’s role in the international trade network has long been researched. During the first half of the second millennium CE, the Indian Ocean emerged as a vast trading zone; its western termini were Siraf/Basra/Baghdad in the Persian Gulf zone and Alexandria/Fustat (old Cairo) in the Red Sea area, while the eastern terminus extended up to the ports in China. However, this essay privileges a single place, Anahilapura, which acted as a hinterland to many of the ports of Gujarat.

Economic evaluation of the Belt and Road Initiative from an unimpeded trade perspective

ABSTRACTChina’s the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will likely change the existing pattern of the international trade network, which may affect both global supply chain management and logistics development. To explore the impacts of OBOR on the world economy and international trade, this paper provides a quantitative evaluation with a global multi-region model. The results reveal that the trade barriers between China and areas along BRI are prominent for some sectors, which implies significant potential for cooperation. The BRI is conducive to the export of Chinese energy-intensive industries and will relieve the overcapacity concern. Particularly, the north line strategy has the greatest potential for textile exports, the middle line is most beneficial to the ferrous metals industry, and the south line may revitalise both chemical and ferrous metals industries. This paper reveals the economic growth and social welfare improvements for the participating regions, which will enhance mutual trust and promote the development of the BRI.

Distance-varying assortativity and clustering of the international trade network

AbstractIn this paper, we study how the topology of the International Trade Network (ITN) changes in geographical space, and along time. We employ geographical distance between countries in the world to filter the links in the ITN, building a sequence of subnetworks, each one featuring trade links occurring at similar distance. We then test if the assortativity and clustering of ITN subnetworks changes as distance increases, and we find that this is indeed the case: distance strongly impacts, in a non-linear way, the topology of the ITN. We show that the ITN is disassortative at long distances, while it is assortative at short ones. Similarly, the main determinant of the overall high-ITN clustering level are triangular trade triples between geographically close countries. This means that trade partnership choices and trade patterns are highly differentiated over different distance ranges, even after controlling for the economic size and income per capita of trading partners, and it is persistent over time. This evidence has relevant implications for the non-linear evolution of globalization.

DETERMINATION OF AMINO ACID COMPOSITION OF BROСCOLI CABBAGE PROTEIN

A wide range of fresh fruits and vegetables grown in different geographical areas and represented in international trade networks has changed the consumers' approaches to their choice. The determining criterion of choice is the biological value of plant raw materials, is determined by the content of amino acids, vitamins, mineral elements, β-carotene, which play a significant role in ensuring the functioning of the human body. The chemical composition of fruits and vegetables is highly variable and depends on the type, variety of vegetables, agro climatic conditions of their cultivation, storage characteristics and requires study. The study of the amino acid composition and biological value of the protein of the broccoli varieties of French and Dutch selections, which are regionalized in Ukraine, will determine the most promising varieties in order to provide the population with full-fledged proteins of plant origin. The amino acid composition of the protein of the broccoli Parthenon, Belstar F1, Quinta F1, Monaco F1 is regionalized and suitable for cultivation in different geographical regions of Ukraine. Calculation of the amino acidic score and biological value of the broccoli cabbage protein on which the varieties were ranked. 8 indispensable and 8 dispensable amino acids are identified and quantified. It is found that the greatest content of indispensable amino acids is characteristic for cabbage varieties Parthenon (41.95 mg/100 mg protein) and Belstar F1 (42.26 mg/100 mg protein). All the investigated varieties of broccoli cabbage don’t differ significantly in this indicator. A high content of glutamic acid (from 16.27 to 18.43 mg/100 mg protein), aspartic acid (from 9.54 to 10.56 mg/100 mg protein), arginine (from 6.02 to 6.90 mg) is found in the dispensable amino acids in broccoli cabbage varieties/100 mg). The calculated amino acid scores show that the broccoli cabbage protein is a valuable source of isoleucine, methionine, phenylalanine and tryptophan. The score of methionine, tryptophan and isoleucine ranges from 165.1 % to 183.1 %; from 121.0 to 156.0 % and from 115.3 to 127.8 % respectively. Species of broccoli cabbage are identified, the protein of which has the highest biological value. The performed calculations confirm that the highest biological value is possessed by the broccoli cabbage protein of Quinta F1 variety (64.2 %). This variety is the most balanced in its amino acid composition compared to other varieties. The biological value of the protein of the varieties of Monaco F1, the Parthenon is different and amounted to 63.2 % and 63.1 %, respectively. The lowest biological value is found for the protein Belstar F1 – 60.5 %. The research results of the amino acid composition and biological value of the broccoli cabbage protein of varieties bred and grown in different countries will contribute to the expansion of the scientific database on the effect of climatic growing conditions on the biological value of the broccoli cabbage protein. The obtained results can also be useful for specialists in the agrarian sector and the fruit and vegetable industry.

Identifying the community structure of the food-trade international multi-network

Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network’s community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001–2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors—such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership—than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential ‘shocks’ to global food trade.

Chinese Abalone Merchants and Fishermen in Nineteenth-Century Santa Barbara, California

Abstract Shortly after the California Gold Rush, the first commercial abalone fishery sprang to life along the central and southern Californian coast, an industry founded and developed by Chinese immigrants. By shipping dried black abalone (Haliotis cracherodii) to Chinese communities in the American West, and exporting the product to a ready market in China, Chinese merchants assembled an elaborate trade network that reached from Santa Barbara, California, to China. Here, we offer the first synthesis of archaeological and historical data that describes the elements of Chinese export activities interpreted through a trading diaspora framework. Our results reveal details about an international trade network supported by the formation of self-governing business associations, relationships with trading partners, and interactions with European Americans. This study fills a critical gap in our understanding of the broader context of California’s historical fisheries and contextualizes the strategies of Chinese merchants who took advantage of new opportunities presented by a changing Pacific economy.

The network of migrants and international trade

This paper investigates the relationship between international trade and migration with the specific aim of estimating direct and indirect effect of the latter on cross-border flows of both homogeneous and differentiated goods. Adopting a spatial econometric approach along with a gravity model set-up, we account for the role of ethnic communities in neighbouring countries on trade, and we propose a new way to define neighbours based on the intensity of links in the migration network. Our approach is particularly well suited to measure the indirect effect stemming from the presence of significant ethnic communities on trade through a “market familiarization” effect. Using data covering all countries between 1970 and 2000, we find a significant indirect effect of migration on trade, that depends on the chosen weight matrix.

Network Analysis for the Improvement of Food Safety in the International Honey Trade

Honey, this relatively homogenous, hard to trace product, characterised by considerable international price differences, and often regulated by high tariff barriers, lends itself to economically motivated product adulteration. The adulteration of honey can undermine confidence in products as well as having adverse public health consequences. The aim of this research is to demonstrate the possibilities for the utilisation of network-based stochastic simulation methods to determine the proliferation of (accidentally or deliberately) polluted food products, using the example of the international honey trade network. The database for the analysis is based on the FAO dataset. The results of a network analysis of the global honey trade system highlight the scale-free character of the world’s honey supply system. Focussing on backbone states and product flows, it is possible to determine the geographical distribution of polluted products as a function of the source of pollution. This information is important for the organisation of international trade control systems when contaminated products appear in a given state. The “polluted product transfer capacity” and the exposure of different states to polluted honey products can, in most cases, be efficiently forecast by the simultaneous application of different centrality measures and indicators.

Dispersion in macroeconomic volatility between the core and periphery of the international trade network

At the country level, macroeconomic volatility tends to correlate with trade openness although the direction of correlation is not stable across samples. Higher openness allows for greater diversification opportunities, but provides lesser immunity from outside shocks. Here I consider trade network as a composite of all pairwise trade linkages to emphasize that different linkages contribute differently to the transmission or mitigation of shocks, and show that volatility is inversely related to centrality, a summary measure of strength of the linkages specific to a country. I study a dynamic multi-country, multi-sector model subject to idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, and characterize volatility as an explicit function of centrality, diversification and the Herfindahl of the trade network in equilibrium. With sufficient skewness in the trade linkages across countries, similar shocks generate substantially different levels of repercussions across the network. The conventional effect of diversification holds true that countries with better diversified trade portfolio fluctuate less. Centrality directly contributes to higher resilience to exogenous shocks, thus reducing volatility. Combined effect of these two mechanisms dominates the opposite effect that a more central country is also more exposed to shocks, which increases volatility. The model calibrated to the EU generates and closely replicates the negative relationship between centrality and volatility. The theoretical model is then extended to capture preference shocks and sparseness of the trade networks.

Quantification of Regional and Global Sustainability Based on Combined Resource Criticality of Land and Water

The overall global food sustainability is limited by the simultaneous availability of primary resources at regional scales, although the international trade network can redistribute available (surplus) food. Assessments based on isolated resource (like water) or demand (like food) cannot provide correct estimates of sustainability. We define a novel criticality index on the basis of simultaneous regional availability of arable land and water to quantify sustainability. Analyses at regional and global scale show that while a relatively small fraction of world population is subcritical in terms of food availability, much larger fractions are becoming subcritical in terms of food production. The combined resource criticality implies stronger constraints for sustainability.

A Comparative Analysis of the Predictive Abilities of Economic Complexity Metrics Using International Trade Network

The complex networks approach has proven to be an effective tool to understand and predict the evolution of a wide range of complex systems. In this work, we consider the network representing the exchange of goods between countries: the international trade network. According to the type of goods they export, the complex networks approach allows inferring which countries will have a bigger growth compared to others. The aim of this work is to study three different methods characterizing the complex networks and study their behaviour on two main topics. Can the method predict the economic evolution of a country? What happens to those methods when we merge the economies?

IT 산업의 국가간 무역 네트워크 영향력과 커뮤니티 구조에 관한 연구

본 연구에서는 세계투입산출표(WIOT)를 이용하여 IT 제조업과 서비스업의 무역 네트워크의 특징에 대해 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 요약하면, 국가별 IT 제조업 수출 측면에서 큰 영향력을 가진 국가들은 중국, 한국, 일본, 대만, 미국 등이다. 또한 최근 들어서 세계 IT 제조업 수출시장에서 중국, 한국, 대만의 영향력이 강화되고 일본과 미국의 영향력이 약화되고 있음을 발견하였다. 세계 IT 제조업 무역 네트워크는 미국, 중국, EU를 중심으로 하는 3개의 하부그룹(community)이 존재하며 최근 들어 중국, 대만, 한국, 일본을 중심으로 하는 IT 제조업 무역블락이 확대되고 있다. 한편, IT 서비스업 수출 측면에서 큰 영향력을 가진 국가들은 EU, 미국, 영국, 인도 등이다. 특히, EU와 미국은 높은 영향력을 가지고 있다. 2005년의 IT 서비스업 무역네트워크 역시 제조업 무역 네트워크와 마찬가지로 3개의 하부그룹이 존재하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 2014년에는 미국과 EU와 같이 영향력이 큰 국가들을 중심으로 무역블락이 통합되었고, 한국, 일본, 중국과 같은 아시아 국가들이 핵심 무역블락에서 분리되고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 분석 결과에 따르면 우리나라의 IT 제조와 서비스 간의 국제 경쟁력의 불균형이 심각한 상태이다. 우리나라 IT 서비스업 경쟁력 강화를 위해서 IT 서비스 및 소프트웨어 산업의 인력 및 기술수준 향상 그리고 경영환경 개선, 지식재산권 보호 강화 등과 같은 종합적인 대책이 마련되어야 할 것이다.

The Impact of International Crises on Maritime Transportation Based Global Value Chains

International trade has evolved into global value chains, a worldwide network highly impacted by global crises. Since maritime transportation is the most important mode for international trade, it is significantly affected by these crises. However, describing the effects of crises in maritime-related trade is extremely challenging due to the multidimensional structure of this network and lack of accurate data. The Global Trade Analysis Project is an important source of information that provides international trade data for multiple regions, economic sectors, and modes around the globe. This paper explores this novel datasets and presents four contributions to literature: (1) proposing a novel representation of the maritime multi-commodity international trade network, (2) using statistical-network-analysis tools to describe the impact of global crises in this network, (3) demonstrating the benefits of this approach over traditional methods, (4) providing economic policy for maritime related global trade. Results show how countries and maritime-related economic sector adjust to global crises from a network perspective as international economy evolves.

Participatory Boat Tracking Reveals Spatial Fishing Patterns in an Indonesian Artisanal Fishery

The Spermonde Archipelago holds one of the largest artisanal fisheries in Indonesia, providing livelihoods for local communities and many other people involved in international trade networks of seafood. High demand and a lack of enforcement of existing fisheries regulations turn into high pressure for the coral reef ecosystem, contributing to its overall degradation. Estimations on the ecological impacts of different levels of fishing pressure, as well as fisheries stock assessments and marine resource management require precise information of the spatial distribution of fishing effort, which involves great uncertainty when only anecdotal information is considered. We explored the feasibility of applying participatory boat tracking to complement fisheries data during the NW monsoon season 2014-2015. We conducted interviews, measured catch landings and distributed GPS data loggers among hook and line fishermen to identify fishing grounds by gear-dependent patterns of boat movement. Most of the fishing activities involved two gears (octopus bait and trolling line for live groupers) and three fishing grounds. The mass of catch landings was dominated by Octopoda (CPUE=10.1 kg boatday-1) while the most diverse group was the fish family Serranidae, with Plectropomus leopardus being the main target species. In conclusion, boat tracking combined with interviews and catch surveys has proven a useful tool to reduce uncertainty in information on spatial resource use, while allowing a high level of participation by fishermen.

The gravity of wildlife trade

Unsustainable trade in wildlife products both legally and illegally is a leading cause of population declines and increased extinction risk in commercially valuable species. However due to the clandestine nature of illegal trade and paucity of overarching studies of legal trade our understanding on international trade networks is patchy. We develop a gravity–underreporting modelling framework to analyse and compare: (i) data on the legal trade in mammalian, avian and reptilian products from recorded by The Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and (ii) to data on the seizures of illegal products entering the USA between 2004 and 2013. We find substantial differences in the factors driving legal trade for the 3 taxonomic groups considered, indicating different drivers for different product markets. Illegal imports for all groups were associated with increasing exporter GDP. We found higher probabilities of underreporting for avian and reptile products, and in general central Africa, central Asia, Eastern Europe and Pacific Island states showed higher underreporting than other regions, indicating the existence of complex trade networks and the potential for the laundering of illegal products through legal markets. Our results show the important regional and economic trends driving wildlife trade. Our new modelling framework can also help illuminate previously unseen aspects of illegal and legal wildlife trade, which can help with the implementation of interventions to curb the impact of trade on wild populations.