International Trade Network Research Articles

Resilience assessment of the aircraft manufacturing core products supply chain: the international trade network perspective

Resilience assessment of the aircraft manufacturing core products supply chain: the international trade network perspective

Comparing the register of seventeenth-century Dutch business letters to private letters: formulaic language and French-origin items

Abstract In this article, we examine, quantitatively and qualitatively, Dutch business letters written by merchants, focusing on formulaic phrases and French suffix borrowing. The letters are part of the Prize Papers, the collection of documents confiscated by the English during times of warfare. We compare these business letters to private letters from the same source, and address the question whether the business letters constitute a particular register. The business letters, written by upper and upper-middle ranked male merchants from the seventeenth century, appear to differ from private letters written by people with a similar social profile. Frequent formulae highly characteristic of seventeenth-century private letters occur to a much lesser extent, if at all, in the business letters. Other formulae, some including Romance origin items (Laus deo, saluut, cordiale), occur more frequently in the business letters. The frequency of verbs with the French-origin suffix -eren is found to be higher in the business letters than in the private letters. Functional explanations are presented for these register differences: formulaic language is correlated with writing experience, and the use of French-origin items may be connected to the common vocabulary used in international trading networks. Similarities in phrasing are also revealed in a qualitative analysis of examples of private and business letters by the same writer. This finding demonstrates how similar private and business letters often were, thus challenging the idea of distinct registers.

Hybrid multi-stage steel footprinting unveils a more interdependent material foundation of the global economy

Steel is foundational to modern society, yet tracking its socio-economic metabolism is challenging due to the complex global trade networks. Traditional indicators, such as domestic material consumption (DMC) and consumption-based material footprints (MF), typically focus on metal ore extraction, overlooking the multiple stages of steel production and consumption. To address this, we integrate multi-national anthropogenic steel cycles and international trade networks of steel-containing products into a global monetary multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. We construct material efficiency indicators based on footprints of iron ores, crude steel, castings, finished steel, and fabricated steel products, comparing them with conventional economy-wide material flow indicators like domestic material production (DMP) and DMC. Our findings reveal that per capita multi-stage MF indicators exhibit more robust log-linear relationships with per capita GDP with an average R2 value of 0.72 compared to 0.10 and 0.18 for DMP and DMC. Shares of Embodied trade in total global production exceed direct trade by 24 percentage points on average, emphasizing the significance of international embodied metal transfers. Using multi-stage MF indicators also reduces disparities in material efficiency between developed and developing countries. This study unravels the intricacies of global steel supply chains and the true interdependencies of steel-containing products among countries.

Establishing the robustness of chip trade networks by dynamically considering topology and risk cascading propagation

Risk cascading propagation research mostly focuses on complex theoretical networks. Recently, the vulnerability of international chip supply has increased notably, and it is strategically important to explore how shortage risk affects the emergence dynamics of the real chip trade systems. This study abstracts the global chip trade relationship data for 2009–2021 into multiple asymmetrically weighted networks. Using macro-network and micro-node indicators, we explore the topological traits of international chip trade networks and their evolutionary laws. Accordingly, we propose risk cascading propagation models driven by node failure and edge restraint and further innovate to open up the research paradigm of focused-edge networks. Furthermore, a community infection-driven risk cascading propagation mechanism that incorporates community risk absorption capacity is introduced, considering both the propagation attenuation effects and the trade dependency degree. A multi-dimensional dynamic perspective reveals the hidden systemic risks in international chip trade. The main results are as follows: first, international chip trade networks are highly connected and cohesive, consistent with small-world characteristics. Second, the proportion of economies that collapse because of supply shortage risk shocks increases with the impact coefficient α/β\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha /\\beta$$\\end{document}. The dominant power in chip crisis propagation has shifted from Europe and America to Asia, and mainland China’s risk penetration capacity has enhanced significantly. Third, focused-edge networks conform to a multi-hub radiation pattern. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the degree of control and spillover effects of chip supply shortages in hub economies on the international trade was increasing progressively. Fourth, an increase in absorption capacity λ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\lambda$$\\end{document} or attenuation factor γ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\gamma$$\\end{document} consistently leads to a decline in avalanche scale, with λ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\lambda$$\\end{document} exhibiting critical thresholds. These findings will help policymakers pursue efficient management strategies for chip trade, thereby improving supply stability and security.

Strategies for selecting trading partners based on economic complexity of international trade networks: A comparison between Chinese and the US markets

Selecting suitable trading partners in the globalized trade landscape remains critical. Traditional selection processes driven by factors like comparative advantage and trade costs are cumbersome and incomplete. Economic complexity offers a more precise measure of a country’s economic development and product capacity, facilitating future-oriented choices. Leveraging international trade data from 2001 to 2015, this paper employs economic complexity theories to analyze Chinese and the US’ trade networks in the global market. It explores multi-level considerations for exporting countries’ partner selection, revealing varying product diversification challenges and market clustering tendencies. China shows increasing overall product proximity relationships, specifically notable in textile-related products, while the US exhibits decreasing product proximities. Additionally, trading positions and product dependencies vary across markets. Some countries, like Japan and Germany, maintain stable positions, while others fluctuate. Notably, countries like Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Cambodia have higher positions in the Chinese market, suggesting promising long-term trade partnerships. Conversely, countries like Yemen, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, and Sudan have higher positions in the US market, indicating significant disparities. Products that are needed in the Chinese market and occupy higher complexity positions are primarily concentrated in the field of non-ferrous metals, while the US market relies more on raw materials. This highlights distinct market dynamics, particularly pronounced in the US market. Hence, there is a greater likelihood of obtaining better economic benefits by trading these products in their respective markets.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on International Staple Agrifood Trade Networks.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2023/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks and an aggregate international food trade network. We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average in-degree, density, and efficiency in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.

Genetic tracing of the illegal trade of the white-bellied pangolin (Phataginus tricuspis) in western Central Africa

The white-bellied pangolin is subject to intense trafficking, feeding both local and international trade networks. In order to assess its population genetics and trace its domestic trade, we genotyped 562 pangolins from local to large bushmeat markets in western central Africa. We show that the two lineages described from the study region (WCA and Gab) were overlapping in ranges, with limited introgression in southern Cameroon. There was a lack of genetic differentiation across WCA and a significant signature of isolation-by-distance possibly due to unsuspected dispersal capacities involving a Wahlund effect. We detected a c. 74.1–82.5% decline in the effective population size of WCA during the Middle Holocene. Private allele frequency tracing approach indicated up to 600 km sourcing distance by large urban markets from Cameroon, including Equatorial Guinea. The 20 species-specific microsatellite loci provided individual-level genotyping resolution and should be considered as valuable resources for future forensic applications. Because admixture was detected between lineages, we recommend a multi-locus approach for tracing the pangolin trade. The Yaoundé market was the main hub of the trade in the region, and thus should receive specific monitoring to mitigate pangolins’ domestic trafficking. Our study also highlighted the weak implementation of CITES regulations at European borders.

Interconnectivity disrupted by fading globalization: a network approach to recent international trade developments

The post-World War II decades experienced rapid growth in international trade, but a trend of weakening globalization has been consolidating recently. We construct the international trade network (ITN) using bilateral trade (2010–2022) to assess how interconnectedness has evolved in the face of recent developments. Our analysis reveals that, while network connectivity initially improved, there has been a shift towards a negative trend since 2018, coinciding with an increasingly unfavorable environment for international trade. We also document significant changes in the roles of countries within the ITN. While the USA remains the primary hub and China solidifies its second position, key countries like Germany, France, Great Britain, and Japan have notably lost relevance, whereas nations like India and the Republic of Korea are gaining prominence. Finally, employing an econometric model, we show that countries with large economies, significant manufacturing sectors, lower inward foreign direct investment stock, and economic and geopolitical stability tend to occupy more central positions in the ITN.

The urban sea: Cribra orbitalia, porotic hyperostosis, linear enamel hypoplasia, and sinusitis in three diachronic urban sites from the Dutch province of Zeeland (1030–1800 CE)

AbstractUntil the 17th century, the Dutch coastal region of Zeeland ranked among Europe's most urbanized areas, driven by thriving international trade networks. People living in this time of flourishing economy benefitted enormously from it in terms of employment opportunities and working conditions, which were reportedly better than in the rest of the Low Countries. However, the rapid growth of Zeeland's urban centers likely presented increasing challenges for the population in terms of accessing essential resources, including food, clean water, and housing. In the 19th century, Zeeland's economy ultimately faced a significant downturn due to the decline in the maritime trade, leading to a substantial reduction in its urban population. Examining patterns of urbanization and economic histories that differ from the commonly studied thriving industrial contexts in bioarcheological research, as exemplified by Zeeland, is a crucial yet relatively underexplored facet in our efforts to understanding the human past. To address this gap, this study investigates the impact of urbanization on the health of Zeeland's inhabitants over time by analyzing nonspecific stress markers (i.e., cribra orbitalia, porotic hyperostosis, and linear enamel hypoplasia) and chronic maxillary sinusitis in a sample of 246 individuals from three urban sites dating from 1030 to 1800 CE. Our analysis of skeletal remains reveals significant differences in the prevalence of porotic hyperostosis, linear enamel hypoplasia, and sinusitis between the medieval and post‐medieval periods. These findings suggest that de‐urbanization and economic decline adversely affected the health and well‐being of the populations under study, influenced by factors such as working conditions and food availability. This study provides a new perspective on bioarcheological approaches to urbanization, shedding light on the intricate realities of urbanization in Zeeland and offering important insights into its complexities.

NORTH SUMATRA IN THE CONTEXT OF TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: HISTORICAL TRACES OF TRADE

North Umatera, a province in the northern part of Sumatra Island, has a rich and varied trade history in the context of international relations. The historical traces of trade in this region cover important periods, starting from the Malay kingdom era to the colonial and modern periods. This article explores the role of North Sumatra as a vital trade node in the Indonesian and international trade networks. By considering geographic, cultural, and political factors, this research traces the evolution of trade routes and economic relations in the region. The main focus of this article is on the influence and contribution of trade to the social, economic and cultural development of North Sumatra, as well as its impact on the dynamics of international relations. Through a historical approach, this article provides a deeper understanding of the role of North Sumatra in building diverse trade relations with other nations, as well as the importance of trade in forming the identity and development of this region from time to time.

Money first? Strategic and economic interests in the international arms trade network, 1920–1936

AbstractArms transfers result from economic and political motives, with the latter often dominating the former. While this is accepted knowledge for the post‐World War II period, it seems not to apply earlier. Much existing research argues that in the interwar years, weapons were traded as purely commercial goods because governments had neither the ability nor willingness to control and direct arms transfers. We reassess this idea and argue that, while formal control was largely absent, governments could steer weapons shipments nonetheless because arms producers depended on them as main customers, sales agents, and financiers of their export business. Anecdotal evidence suggests that governments actively used this influence. To test whether interwar arms transfers were the result of political or commercial interests, we use newly collected, historical data on the small arms trade and inferential network analysis methods. Our results suggest that although economic drivers existed throughout the interwar period, political considerations were especially influential when international relations were hostile at the start and end of the period. This research contributes to our understanding of international economic relations between the world wars and of the drivers of arms transfers across time.

Based on social network analysis: Whether international trade network changed before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, the international trade has been facing a severe impact. Based on the social network analysis method, this research models the world trade network during the six years from 2017 to 2022. The world trade network is made into a weighted directed adjacency matrix based on the data published by UN Comtrade database. The matrix also refers to the gravity model. With visualized data and images, this research makes a quantitative study on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world trade network from the perspective of network analysis, centrality analysis and clustering coefficient. Apart from that, this research focuses on the international trade pattern and how it changes under the impact of the pandemic. According to this research, although the world trade network has not been deeply affected by the disease, there are some concealed tendency has been discovered, which may profoundly change the world pattern in the future.

The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network.

In our study, we introduce indicators that quantify the influence of each country in complex trade scenarios involving the exchange of raw materials, intermediate goods, and final products across multiple countries. We systematically employ an agent-based model to simulate the propagation of failures from one node to the entire network. This approach allows for the assessment of the impact of each country and the identification of patterns of interaction in the multi-step trade network. Unlike conventional analyses of trade networks, which depict straightforward single-step import/export transactions, our approach captures the intricate realities of processes like raw material procurement, production, and sales in numerous countries from a macroscopic perspective. The findings of our analysis of trade data spanning from 1990 to 2022 reveal several key insights. Firstly, sensitivity to changes in trade volume leading to global failures within interconnected networks has intensified over time. The potential of failure propagation across countries has increased over time, as has the interconnectedness of countries in the global trade landscape. Secondly, despite the increased sensitivity to changes in global trade volume, many countries have become less vulnerable to the influence of others within their multi-step trade networks. This trend aligns with deglobalization, which is evidenced by events such as Brexit and the surge in protectionist measures; these changes indicate a shift in the balance of influence within global trade networks. Thirdly, the results of our analysis of the relationship between load changes and global failures from a regional perspective reveal an intriguing phenomenon: despite limited direct trade connectivity, the interaction between the Latin American and Sub-Saharan African regions is considerable. This suggests the existence of hidden connections between intermediary countries, such that one region's actions can alter the load sensitivity of another, impacting them in unforeseen ways. Furthermore, intra-regional interactions are diminishing in East Asia, while Europe is experiencing a gradual increase in interactions. These trends reflect evolving regional influence, the dynamics of geographic proximity, and the results of economic integration efforts. Additionally, even though the observed period was not long enough to confirm a long-term trend, the previous trend direction was affirmed to persist despite a temporary decrease in trading and reduced sensitivity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights the complexity of global trade dynamics and the need to consider multi-step trade networks and their potential cascading effects when analyzing trade patterns and vulnerabilities.

Opinion Formation in the World Trade Network.

We extend the opinion formation approach to probe the world influence of economical organizations. Our opinion formation model mimics a battle between currencies within the international trade network. Based on the United Nations Comtrade database, we construct the world trade network for the years of the last decade from 2010 to 2020. We consider different core groups constituted by countries preferring to trade in a specific currency. We will consider principally two core groups, namely, five Anglo-Saxon countries that prefer to trade in US dollar and the 11 BRICS+ that prefer to trade in a hypothetical currency, hereafter called BRI, pegged to their economies. We determine the trade currency preference of the other countries via a Monte Carlo process depending on the direct transactions between the countries. The results obtained in the frame of this mathematical model show that starting from the year 2014, the majority of the world countries would have preferred to trade in BRI than USD. The Monte Carlo process reaches a steady state with three distinct groups: two groups of countries preferring to trade in whatever is the initial distribution of the trade currency preferences, one in BRI and the other in USD, and a third group of countries swinging as a whole between USD and BRI depending on the initial distribution of the trade currency preferences. We also analyze the battle between three currencies: on one hand, we consider USD, BRI and EUR, the latter currency being pegged by the core group of nine EU countries. We show that the countries preferring EUR are mainly the swing countries obtained in the frame of the two currencies model. On the other hand, we consider USD, CNY (Chinese yuan), OPE, the latter currency being pegged to the major OPEC+ economies for which we try to probe the effective economical influence within international trade. Finally, we present the reduced Google matrix description of the trade relations between the Anglo-Saxon countries and the BRICS+.

International trade network and stock market connectedness: Evidence from eleven major economies

Depth of cross-country international trade engagement is an important source of (the strength of) stock-market connectedness, depicting how directional attributes of trade determine the magnitude of spillover of stock returns across economies. We premise and test this hypothesis for a group of eleven major economies during 2000 m1-2021 m6 using both system-wide and directional evidence. We exploit the input–output network of Bilgin and Yilmaz (2018) to construct a trade-network, and use Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2009, 2012, 2014) Connectedness Index to proxy for stock-market connectedness among economies. We reveal China’s instrumental role in the trade-network and its rising influence in stock markets dominated by the US. Motivated by the fact that shocks on an economy’s imports and exports may lead to different magnitude of stock market spillover to its trade partner, we further carry out a pairwise directional level investigation. Once the directional dimensions of both the trade flows and the stock market influences are considered, we find that an economy’s stock return spillover to its trade partner is generated from its position as an importer and exporter. More importantly, being an importer is found to be a stronger source of such spillover than being an exporter.

Dynamics and driving factors of the international oil trade network

Dynamics and driving factors of the international oil trade network

Quantification of International Trade Network Performance Under Disruptions to Supply, Transportation, and Demand Capacity, and Exchange Rates in Disasters

Quantification of International Trade Network Performance Under Disruptions to Supply, Transportation, and Demand Capacity, and Exchange Rates in Disasters

Research on international trade flow analysis based on potential clustering network

Abstract International trade is an important part of the world economy, and the rapid development of big data and complex network theory provides the possibility of an in-depth study of international trade networks. This study constructs the international trade flow gravity model and international trade flow index system on the basis of the clustered dynamic panel gravity model. It explores the influencing factors of national trade flow and the fitting effect of the international trade gravity model through factor analysis and regression analysis of variables in the system. The sample data’s KMO value is 0.834, according to the results, and there is a significant correlation between the variables. The degree of explanation of the public factors to the original variables is more than 0.5, and the variance contribution rate of trade structure, marketized structure, population and macroeconomics, international capital, and exchange rate reaches 71.832%, which makes the factor analysis more effective. The R² value of the trade gravity model reaches 0.837, with a remarkable effect. Among the sample countries, the highest trade flow potential is the United States (125,467.0), while the lowest is Portugal (512.4). The national GDP and population have a significant effect on international trade flows. The volume of each trading country should be used as a reference basis for conducting trade transactions when conducting international trade.

How does digital payment affect international trade? Research based on the social network analysis method

<abstract> <p>Digital payment is one of the latest trendsin modern payment systems; its development has a profound impact on international trade relations and the international trade status of countries. We constructed an international trade network by using global commodity trade data to measure countries' international trade status. Based on this, we used panel data from 25 countries for the period between 2012 and 2020 and employed a fixed-effect model to test the relationship between digital payment and international trade status. Empirical results show that, first, the development of digital payment can effectively enhance a country's international trade status. Second, digital payment strengthens international trade connections by lowering barriers to cross-border capital flows, thereby improving a country's international trade status. Third, the effect of digital payment on enhancing international trade status varies across countries with different degrees of trade openness. The findings of this study provide theoretical support for the development of digital payment and international trade.</p> </abstract>

Assessment of the level of competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural holdings in international markets

Agriculture remains one of the main sectors that play an important role in both the country’s economic development and strategic security. Therefore, conducting an ongoing study of this component in the country is relevant. The purpose of the study was to determine the competitive opportunities of agricultural holdings in Ukraine. The methods of scientific cognition that were used in the work were abstract and logical, dialectical, general scientific and statistical methods, methods of historical and logical observation, analysis and synthesis. This study analyses the competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural production, in particular by such indicators as: dynamics of gross harvest, yield and acreage of the main agricultural crops, balance of agricultural production, export of agricultural products and their processed products during 2000-2023. The methods that need to be implemented to make the agro-industrial complex competitive in the global market are also proposed. The results of this research on the competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural holdings in international markets, and the conclusions drawn on their basis, are of significant importance, as they prove that powerful agricultural holdings operate in Ukraine, characterised by dynamic capabilities, increase their capacities, attract unused arable land, and effectively use the potential of resources and crops. In addition, the development of world markets for agricultural products is promising for agricultural holdings, because Ukraine is geographically located almost in the centre of international trade networks, and exports in some strategic areas will help agricultural enterprises avoid uncertainty and possible large losses. The assessment of agricultural holdings, namely Kernel and Myronivsky Hlibprodukt, showed that even in war conditions, agricultural companies have opportunities to develop and enter international markets. The findings obtained in the framework of the study can be used both by representatives of the public sector to form policies in this area, and by enterprises to create long-term development strategies.