International Oil Trade Research Articles

Upward march of the global emissions markets

World statistics show a steady increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the planet's atmosphere. Сontinuous growth of greenhouse gas markets occurred despite the financial crisis (2008) and the pandemic (2019-2022). Currently there are about 70 market mechanisms in the world that capture some 20% of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite obvious progress, the terms of the Paris climate agreement are far from being met. The current situation requires the global community to strengthen measures to combat climate change. New approaches are needed to develop market-based instruments to achieve climate goals. The study explores the volumes and trends the market economic mechanisms abroad. These mechanisms can cover a significant part of greenhouse gas emissions. Russia has so was not involved in the development of global carbon markets, unlike its western and eastern neighbors. The study of the experience of these countries is necessary for the successful assertion of national Russian interests in the global carbon policy and markets. Carbon credits are traded on a mandatory and voluntary markets. They are divided into primary and secondary. Carbon markets reached $800 billion in 2021, more than international trade in grains or oil. Voluntary markets have surpassed the $800 million mark and continue to grow rapidly. It is expected that by 2030 their volume will be at least 100 billion US dollars. The current study highlights promising directions for the Russian carbon markets, taking into account world experience and development trends.

Dynamics and driving factors of the international oil trade network

Dynamics and driving factors of the international oil trade network

Increasing impacts of China's oil and gas demands on global CH4 emissions

The energy sector stands out as a main contributor to increasing global methane (CH4) emissions. Given China's heavy dependence on energy imports, a closer examination of its oil and gas-related CH4 emissions becomes imperative. This study conducts an in-depth analysis of China's contribution to global CH4 emissions stemming from its consumption of crude oil and natural gas since 2000. The results indicate that CH4 emissions from crude oil and natural gas imports rose from 614 Gg in 2000 to 7692 Gg in 2019. When considering domestic production, the demand-induced CH4 emissions in 2019 increased to approximately 10754 Gg (equivalent to 320 Mt CO2-eq and 887 Mt CO2-eq based on global warming potential (GWP) values at the 100-year and 20-year time period), of which 72 % were related to crude oil and natural gas imports. The primary contributor to this increase in CH4 emissions was the expansion of the trade scale. The growth trend of crude oil imports-induced CH4 emissions was also positively influenced by emission intensity and trade structure, but these two drivers had a negative impact on the growth of natural gas imports-induced CH4 emissions. The virtual transfer of CH4 emissions via international oil and gas trade requires urgent policy attention. In collaboration with its trading partners, China should take aggressive actions to achieve meaningful mitigation in CH4 emissions associated with the oil and gas trade.

An interpretable machine-learned model for international oil trade network

Energy security and energy trade are the cornerstones of global economic and social development. The structural robustness of the international oil trade network (iOTN) plays an important role in the global economy. We integrate the machine learning optimization algorithm, game theory, and utility theory for learning an oil trade decision-making model that contains the benefit endowment and cost endowment of economies in international oil trades. We have reconstructed the network degree, clustering coefficient, and closeness of the iOTN well to verify the effectiveness of the model. In the end, policy simulations based on game theory and agent-based model are carried out in a more realistic environment. We find that export-oriented economies are more vulnerable to being affected than import-oriented economies after receiving external shocks. Moreover, the impact of the increase and decrease of trade friction costs on the international oil trade is asymmetrical, and there are significant differences between international organizations.

Import competition and pressure in the international crude oil trade: A network analysis

As crude oil demand grows, the international crude oil trade grows as well, thus import trade competition between crude oil importers intensifies. It further leads to the increasing import pressure faced by importers. We defined and calculated the import competition pressure. Taking crude oil importers as nodes, the import competition relationships between importers as edges, the direction of import competition pressure as the edges’ direction, and the crude oil importing competitive pressures forced on importers are weights, the paper builds a crude oil import trade competition pressure network. Using a complex network theory analysis method, according to complex network characteristics, the paper analyzes crude oil import trade competition pressure network evolution law from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that: (1) The import competition intensity difference is larger, concentrated between Asian and European countries; (2) The most import competitive markets for crude oil are Russia and Saudi Arabia, and the crude oil dependence of China on Saudi Arabia is higher than USA; (3) The crude oil trade relationships are roughly divided into four categories, namely import-dependence, importer-oriented, close cooperation, and loose trade relationships; (4) China has gotten increasing competitive pressure from Germany and Netherlands in Russia in recent years, but decreasing in Angola and Saudi Arabia. Based on the above results, we recommend diversifying the supply, expanding the global circle of trusted trading partners and establishing a risk response mechanism. The above analysis can help countries identify competition pressure and provide suggestions for improving competitive advantages about crude oil.

International politics and oil trade: evidence from Russian oil exports

Abstract Oil is often considered a “political” good affected by the changes in international political relations. Using a novel dataset on Russian oil-exporting companies over 1999–2011, we find that a worsening in political relations between Russia and an oil-importing country results in a considerable reduction in oil shipments by Russian oil exporting firms into that country, the effect being stronger for state-owned firms. Using leadership changes in oil importing countries as exogenous shocks to political relations, we show that this relationship is causal. However, total exports revenue of Russian oil exporting firms is not affected much, as they seem to be able to recover losses incurred in one market by increasing their sales in other markets. At the same time, the countries importing oil from Russia (especially the ones heavily dependent on Russian oil) see their total oil and energy imports decline.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Topological Evolution of the Global Crude Oil Trade Network

The high separation of crude oil supply and demand markets has led to the formation of a global crude oil trading system. This paper constructs global crude oil trade networks, integrates macro, meso, and micro network analysis methods, combines geospatial visualization techniques, and then portrays the spatiotemporal patterns and topological evolution of the global crude oil trade networks. Thus, it attempts to dig deeper into the world crude oil competition and cooperation links and evolution laws and provides a scientific reference for a comprehensive understanding of the global crude oil market dynamics. The results show that: (1) After three fluctuations of increase and decrease since 2000, the global crude oil trade volume is entering the adjustment period, and the scale of the crude oil market is rising slowly. (2) The international crude oil trade has formed trade network patterns with complex structures, clear hierarchy and unbalanced distribution. The “rich club” phenomenon is significant, with large trading countries dominating the trade network. (3) The scale and density of the global crude oil trade network show a trend of increasing and then decreasing, the network agglomeration pattern becoming more obvious, the inter-nodal links continuously strengthening, and the network connectivity improving. (4) The global crude oil trade networks are characterized by core–periphery structures, and the polarization effect is significant. The US, Russia, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea hold the core positions in the crude oil trade network, and the major importing countries have become the dominant forces in the trade network. In addition, we present policy suggestions for different types of countries for energy transformation and security in the global trade market system, which can be used as a reference for policymakers.

Commercial maps of the main Latin American countries in the international olive oil market

Aim of study: World trade in olive oil is undergoing structural changes, with the emergence of new relevant actors, notably South American countries. The objective of this study was to analyze the performance of emerging Latin American countries in the world olive oil market during the period 2010–2019. Area of study: Major Latin American countries within an international context. Material and methods: The study was conducted through an analysis of trade networks, the application of the export growth decomposition method, the index of import dependence, and competitiveness matrices developed from the statistical evolution of import share and market share indicators. Main results: European countries continue to dominate international trade in olive oil, however, Chile and Argentina have managed to widen their role. Chile was the country with the highest growth rate in olive oil exports in terms of value and volume in the period analyzed, whereas Argentina was below the world average. Prices in general have been stagnant, although price variability between countries can be distinguished. This may be due to the re-export policy of some countries, the qualities, the format, and some intrinsic characteristics of the markets. Research highlights: Chile and Argentina figure prominently for their commercial capacity, with the former focusing mainly on the USA and Brazilian markets, and the latter on the Spanish.

How has the US maintained hegemony in the international oil trade through its control of the Middle East?

This article discusses the dominance the US has over the Middle Eastern oil industry. It explores the timeline in which this happened, dating back to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, as well as how strong their dominance is in the current world. The US has created numerous wars to maintain its oil hegemony and has dismantled governments in countries that do not act according to American oil interests. There have been multiple threats to the Bretton Woods system including structural issues and fierce competition. The petro-yuan has become a major component of the world oil trade and diminishing relations between the US and its trade allies could ultimately end the dollar’s currency dominance.

The Russian-Ukraine Conflict, Crude Oil Price Fluctuation and Dynamic Changes in Stock Market: Evidence from the U.S and China

Political struggle is an important factor affecting the pattern of the international oil trade. The escalation of collisions between Russia and Ukraine, and the economic sanctions that the United States and European countries implemented against Russia had a significant impact on Russian oil exports. In this context, it is crucial to study how Chinese and American stock markets react to the burnt of international crude oil prices, in order to understand the phenomenon of risk contagion between markets and prevent risks. This paper selects the settlement prices of the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 index, Nasdaq index, Shanghai index, Shenzhen index, and international crude oil futures prices from three months before the Russian-Ukraine Conflict to the end of May 2022 to illustrate the tolerance to the volatility of two markets, using VAR and ARMA-GARCH model. The empirical results indicated that crude oil price fluctuation has a stronger impact on the US stock market than on the Chinese stock market, and specific stocks act differently during this “black swan incident”.

Risk diffusion of international oil trade cuts: A network-based dynamics model

International trade relations between countries have enabled the integration of global oil trade while also creating a platform for the risk diffusion of oil supply cuts. The global energy supply shortages sparked by the Covid-19 pandemic has made the problem even more pronounced. This study develops a network-based dynamics model based on the modified bootstrap percolation theory to simulate the cascading diffusion of oil supply shortages. We assess the destructive effects of exporting countries’ cuts in oil exports on global oil trade relations and the vulnerability of importing countries when they encounter oil supply shortages. The cascading diffusion of oil supply breakdown occurs less frequently from 2015 to 2019, proving that the entire network’s antirisk capacity strengthens over time. The coronavirus pandemic has impaired the robustness of the oil trade network in 2020. OPEC’s export influence has continued to decline in recent years. The diversified evolution of the oil supply is conducive to the stability of the oil trade economy. This paper analyzes the risk propagation mechanism in the global oil trade and conducts a case study. The results have a specific early warning effect on regional oil supply risks.

Identifying oil market states based on structure and evolution of the international crude oil trade networks

With the growing demand for energy, the importance of oil as a major energy resource is increasingly evident, and trade has become the key to balancing energy supply and demand. We construct the evolving international oil trade network (iOTN) and analyze the structure and evolution characteristics of the network. Meanwhile, we identify different oil market states by applying the sequential clustering method, combined with relevant network indicators. We find an increase in bilateral cooperation among economies in the oil market, closer trade ties and an upward trend in network reciprocity. The iOTN is heterogeneous, and economies with widely differing trade positions are more likely to cooperate. Trade cooperation with significant trade volumes is more irreplaceable and stable. The changes of oil market state in 1990, 2004 and 2014 indicate that major international events significantly impact the structure of energy systems and trade networks. The division of the oil trade market state by sequential clustering can reflect the reality. Our study clarifies the structural attributes of the iOTN, explores the evolution of the oil trade pattern from the network level, and accurately identifies the state changes in the international oil market.

COSTS AND RETURNS OF CASTOR CULTIVATION: CATEGORICAL ANALYSIS OF FARMERS IN GUJARAT

India ranks first in terms of castor area under cultivation, production and productivity and dominates the international castor oil trade, seed and its derivatives Amongst the states of India, Gujarat ranks first in area under castor cultivation and the castor production of India. The present paper attempts to analyse the cost and returns pertaining to castor cultivation in Gujarat with special focus on various categories of farmers to understand that how lucrative is castor cultivation especially across various categories/size of (marginal, small, medium, large) farmers in Gujarat. It has been observed that there is a statistically significant difference in cost of castor cultivation between / across the categories of (marginal, small, medium and large) farmers. The cost (C2) of castor cultivation was estimated to be highest for medium farmer followed by large farmer, marginal farmer and small farmer. It has been found that there is a statistically significant difference in returns from castor cultivation between / across the categories of (marginal, small, medium and large) farmers. The per hectare gross income as well as net income was determined to be highest for medium farmers, followed by marginal farmers, large farmers and small farmers. It was perceived that cost of castor cultivation and returns from castor cultivation differed with the category/size of farmers.

Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies

In the international oil trade network, trade shocks triggered by extreme events may spread over the entire network through trade links and even lead to the collapse of the whole system. To investigate the robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks (i.e. shocks) to economies, we focus on the concept of “too central to fail”. The results of the centrality measurement of economies and international organizations show that there are significant differences in the results of identifying the centrality of economies by different indicators. The judgment of influence by a single indicator cannot be considered from multiple levels. The simulation results show that the regional aggregation of oil trade is an essential source of the oil trade network's vulnerability and the global oil trading system becomes more fragile after encountering major events. Maintaining oil trade stability and security requires to focus on economies with greater influence within the network module. We improve the framework of oil security and trade risk assessment based on the topological index of the network, and provide a reference for finding methods to maintain network robustness and oil trade stability.

The performance of cooperation strategies for enhancing the efficiency of international oil trade networks

Abstract The efficiency of the international oil trade networks (iOTNs) is an important measure of the efficient redistribution of oil resources among various economies. Adopting cooperation strategies between economies can enhance the efficiency of the iOTNs. We design a series of trade cooperation strategies based on trade volumes, geographic locations and local similarities of economies, and quantitatively analyse the impact of new trade relations on the efficiency of the iOTNs under different trade cooperation strategies. We find that the oil trade system rapidly developed into a more efficient system for the flows of resources and market information. When the proportion of newly added trade relationships is fairly large, the win–win strategy can improve the network efficiency the most; otherwise, the common neighbour strategy performs the best.

Evolving efficiency and robustness of the international oil trade network

As a vital strategic resource, oil has an essential influence on the world’s economy, diplomacy and military development. Oil resources are unevenly distributed. Therefore, trade is an important way to realize the allocation of oil resources on a global scale. This paper establishes a trading-based network model for international oil trade to study the evolving efficiency, criticality and robustness of economies and the relationships between oil trade partners. The results show that for unweighted international oil trade networks (iOTNs), the efficiency of oil resource allocation gradually increases with growing complexity of the iOTNs, and the weighted efficiency indicators are more capable of highlighting the impact of major events on the iOTNs. The identified critical economies and trade relationships have more important strategic significance in the real market. Simulated deliberate attacks corresponding to national bankruptcy, trade blockade, and economic sanctions have a more significant impact on the robustness than random attacks, and the international oil trade system is becoming more vulnerable. When economies are promoting high-quality economic development and continuously enhancing positions in the iOTN, more attention needs to be paid to the identified critical economies and trade relationships.

Driving Factors of Energy Consumption in the Developed Regions of Developing Countries: A Case of Zhejiang Province, China

Regional energy development and approaches are significant for China’s overall economic and social development. The GDP in Zhejiang province surpassed 6 trillion yuan in 2019, and its energy consumption reached 200 million tons of standard coal (tce), both of which are at the forefront of China. In order to explore the main factors of the increase in energy consumption in Zhejiang and provide essential references for energy saving and other provinces, this paper analyzes the total energy consumption and industrial sectors on the basis of the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model. Study results show that the economy’s scale is the most crucial factor affecting Zhejiang’s energy consumption, with a significant growth effect. In 2015, the scale effect increased energy consumption to the highest value of 14 million tce and then reduced it to 13 million tce in 2019. The impact of the population on energy consumption increased by 10 million tce from 2010 to 2019. Energy intensity reduces energy consumption by between 0.05 and 0.15 billion tce per year, which is the main factor in reducing energy consumption. The energy structure generally plays a weak positive role due to the different energy types. The decomposition of the energy consumption per unit of value added in the industrial sector showed that the intensity and structural effect primarily reduce energy consumption, for example, the metal smelting and rolling, textile printing and paper, electric power, heating, and other industries. According to the results, enterprises should enhance the intelligence and efficiency of dispatch management and emergency responses. Zhejiang should also accelerate an international oil and gas trading center and resource allocation base to reach its carbon-neutrality goal.

Oil trade rents and International Income Inequality

This paper investigates the role of oil rents as implicit transfers that redistribute global income through international trade channels. It involves estimating these rents, calculating the redistributive effect, exploring the role of exports and imports and the different impact depending on income per capita. The results document that (i) implicit international oil trade rents lead to a positive but declining reduction in international income inequality, although it becomes regressive after 2001 using PPP income estimates; (ii) redistribution is basically generated via exports, with imports playing a minor role; and (iii) international oil rents have a greater impact on the countries in the lowest deciles. The novelty of this work is that, for the first time, the international redistributive effect of oil rents is studied, by introducing the concept of implicit transfers in international trade, which opens up new fields of research in the area of global income inequality.

The global oil supply chain: The essential role of non-oil product as revealed by a comparison between physical and virtual oil trade patterns

Holistic evolution of the global oil supply chain is revealed from both physical and virtual oil use perspectives in parallel, distinctively based on inter-regional physical oil trade by oil products and virtual oil trade embodied in both oil and non-oil products during 2000–2015. Due to strengthening oil resource relocation along the complex supply chain from oil-rich regions to oil-scarce regions, time-series changes of oil use at both ends of the global supply chain present distinct profiles. Non-oil products play ever-increasing important roles in international virtual oil trade, against crude oil and oil products. Virtual oil embodied in non-oil products accounts for more than half of major oil importing economies’ total oil trade (USA: 50%, Japan: 63%, China: 58%, Korea: 61%, Spain: 82%). Global trade relations have been diversifying over time. Physical oil trade by oil products dominates the intermediate trade, whereas virtual oil trade by non-oil products leads the final trade. According to the comparative results under the two perspectives, measures to ensure global oil supply security are provided. A long-term prediction of future national virtual oil use till 2040 highlights the necessity of improving oil use efficiency economically to support society development. To tackle with the effects of non-oil products, market-oriented policies requiring concerted efforts of all the economies along the supply chain are illustrated.

The response of exchange rates to economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from Russia

The Russian economy has encountered substantial exchange rate volatility due to many endogenous and exogenous shocks, including the adoption of different exchange rate systems, the global financial crisis, sanctions, and the COVID pandemic. The economy has long experience with a managed floating exchange rate system, which motivates us to investigate the exchange rate response to domestic economic policy uncertainty, incorporating oil prices and the trade volume under different economic circumstances. We apply quantile-based time-series approaches to deal with extreme values. Our empirical investigation demonstrates that the local currency appreciates in response to increased Russian economic policy uncertainty under different quantiles of the managed floating exchange rate, but it depreciates under most quantiles in a floating exchange rate period. Our findings confirm that the Russian currency appreciates with the rise in international oil prices and trade as Russia is an oil-exporting country. Moreover, the findings are robust under the quantile-on-quantile approach.