Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies

Abstract

In the international oil trade network, trade shocks triggered by extreme events may spread over the entire network through trade links and even lead to the collapse of the whole system. To investigate the robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks (i.e. shocks) to economies, we focus on the concept of “too central to fail”. The results of the centrality measurement of economies and international organizations show that there are significant differences in the results of identifying the centrality of economies by different indicators. The judgment of influence by a single indicator cannot be considered from multiple levels. The simulation results show that the regional aggregation of oil trade is an essential source of the oil trade network's vulnerability and the global oil trading system becomes more fragile after encountering major events. Maintaining oil trade stability and security requires to focus on economies with greater influence within the network module. We improve the framework of oil security and trade risk assessment based on the topological index of the network, and provide a reference for finding methods to maintain network robustness and oil trade stability.