Identifying oil market states based on structure and evolution of the international crude oil trade networks

Abstract

With the growing demand for energy, the importance of oil as a major energy resource is increasingly evident, and trade has become the key to balancing energy supply and demand. We construct the evolving international oil trade network (iOTN) and analyze the structure and evolution characteristics of the network. Meanwhile, we identify different oil market states by applying the sequential clustering method, combined with relevant network indicators. We find an increase in bilateral cooperation among economies in the oil market, closer trade ties and an upward trend in network reciprocity. The iOTN is heterogeneous, and economies with widely differing trade positions are more likely to cooperate. Trade cooperation with significant trade volumes is more irreplaceable and stable. The changes of oil market state in 1990, 2004 and 2014 indicate that major international events significantly impact the structure of energy systems and trade networks. The division of the oil trade market state by sequential clustering can reflect the reality. Our study clarifies the structural attributes of the iOTN, explores the evolution of the oil trade pattern from the network level, and accurately identifies the state changes in the international oil market.