International Climate Agreements Research Articles

Determination of the emission rates of CO<sub>2</sub> point sources with airborne lidar

Abstract. Anthropogenic point sources, such as coal-fired power plants, produce a major share of global CO2 emissions. International climate agreements demand their independent monitoring. Due to the large number of point sources and their global spatial distribution, the implementation of a satellite-based observation system is convenient. Airborne active remote sensing measurements demonstrate that the deployment of lidar is promising in this respect. The integrated path differential absorption lidar CHARM-F is installed on board an aircraft in order to detect weighted column-integrated dry-air mixing ratios of CO2 below the aircraft along its flight track. During the Carbon Dioxide and Methane Mission (CoMet) in spring 2018, airborne greenhouse gas measurements were performed, focusing on the major European sources of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, i.e., large coal-fired power plants. The flights were designed to transect isolated exhaust plumes. From the resulting enhancement in the CO2 mixing ratios, emission rates can be derived via the cross-sectional flux method. On average, our results roughly correspond to reported annual emission rates, with wind speed uncertainties being the major source of error. We observe significant variations between individual overflights, ranging up to a factor of 2. We hypothesize that these variations are mostly driven by turbulence. This is confirmed by a high-resolution large eddy simulation that enables us to give a qualitative assessment of the influence of plume inhomogeneity on the cross-sectional flux method. Our findings suggest avoiding periods of strong turbulence, e.g., midday and afternoon. More favorable measurement conditions prevail during nighttime and morning. Since lidars are intrinsically independent of sunlight, they have a significant advantage in this regard.

Fairness, equity, and justice in the Paris Agreement: Terms and operationalization of differentiation

AbstractThe Paris Agreement (2015) and the Rulebook (2018) introduce the terms ‘fair’ and ‘climate justice’ for burden-sharing and differentiation. The article analyses to what extent these terms amend the existing term ‘equity’ and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR).The principle of CBDR is an open balancing concept with one clear requirement: Contracting parties contribute to climate protection to a different extent. The terms which appear to have normative weight (‘equity’ and ‘climate justice’), in international climate agreements, are limited to their procedural relevance. They aim at an equal participation in sub-institutions of the Paris Agreement or at making arguments for differentiation transparent. The term ‘fair’ focuses on the discourse on individual concepts of differentiation and on narrowing down common criteria in the long-run.Considering the operationalization of differentiation beyond the terms, it becomes clear that criteria are hardly specified, not weighted against each other and that self-differentiation dominates pre-defined criteria, in particular within the central rules on mitigation and financial transfers. However, the Paris Agreement still specifies criteria with different relevance: Capabilities are followed by vulnerability and the responsibility for emissions.After all, the prevailing procedural terms and rules of differentiation might give orientation, inspire subsequent decisions and the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The more transparent the various specifications of differentiation are, the more the rules of differentiation can be narrowed. If the reference of criteria to individual states is possible, the Paris Agreement might be implemented effectively which allows for better compliance with the Agreement.

Symmetric Renegotiation-Proof Climate Agreements

In this paper, we study the impacts and effects of the number of countries and green technology on climate agreements. In a repeated climate game framework, we focus on the symmetric and self-enforcing weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. The set of every country’s feasible abatements is bounded and independent of the number of signatory countries. We derive the maximal number of signatory countries that can reach a fully cooperative (most efficient) climate agreement. We also analyze the maximal equilibrium abatement level when there are too many countries to sustain the fully cooperative agreement. The maximal equilibrium abatement level changes non-monotonically in the number of the countries; it first increases and then decreases in the number of countries involved. Our findings demonstrate a trade-off between the breadth and the depth for international climate agreements.

Climate justice and rights-based litigation in a post-Paris world

ABSTRACT In spite of the 2015 Paris Agreement requiring all Parties, irrespective of their development status, to take climate action, the operationalization of climate justice in global climate governance and policy has been fraught. Other avenues, such as litigation, have emerged as a policy tool for seeking redress for past and prospective harm resulting from climate change. The academic and policy literatures have, however, had limited engagement with the role of rights-based litigation in climate governance since Paris. We help fill this gap by developing the four-component OATH (Objective, Associated climate impact, Type of justice, Harm) framework and applying it to three high-profile climate litigation cases – Urgenda v. The Netherlands, Juliana v. United States, and Demanda v. Minambiente. Our analysis confirms that the progress and achievements of these cases demonstrate the potential of climate litigation to force greater national and sub-national government action on climate change. However, litigation better serves some types of justice (e.g. intergenerational) than others (e.g. distributive). Therefore, as its ambition and progress continue to grow, litigation must be combined with other forms of climate action to better advance justice in a post-Paris world. Key policy insights International climate agreements and obligations are important to the success of climate litigation. Climate litigation can be used to hold countries accountable to the commitments they communicate in their NDCs and other policy instruments, but it should be used as one of several policy tools. Litigation pertaining to climate adaptation should and can be expanded to support and advance justice. Distributive justice cannot be sufficiently advanced through domestic climate litigation so it must be further incorporated into international climate agreements and obligations. The universal right to a clean environment, its definition and criteria should be (a) established in international environmental agreements and obligations, and (b) aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Principles of International Law and the Adoption of a Market-Based Mechanism for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Shipping

Emissions from shipping are a significant driver of human-induced climate change. International action to date has not succeeded in setting those emissions on a sustainable trajectory. The International Maritime Organization has committed to implementing an effective, international approach to tackle international shipping’s contribution to climate change. This paper considers international law principles, exploring whether and how these principles may provide a basis for the IMO to address those contributions. The polluter pays principle, which counsels that whoever produces pollution should cover the costs their pollution imposes on others, is a doctrine of international law that offers strong support for the IMO to adopt a market-based mechanism to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Other principles of international law provide that any market-based mechanism the IMO adopts should be consistent with international climate agreements, responsive to the different contributions that nations and companies have made to the climate problem, built on the best available science while resolving any uncertainties in favor of less risk to the environment, and respectful of universally-recognized rights—both individual and national—to equity, life, and fair treatment.

Drivers of Carbon Price Adoption in Wealthy Democracies: International or Domestic Forces?

Is carbon price adoption in wealthy democracies driven more by international or domestic forces? Event history analyses reveal that carbon price adoption is more likely in countries with less fossil fuel energy use (and, by proxy, less powerful fossil fuel business-elite actors) and with less encumbered democratic institutions (i.e., fewer institutional veto points). These findings are triangulated through cross-sectional comparisons and case studies. In short, wealthy democracies enact carbon prices according to the degree to which domestic actors or costs constrain or enable enactment and implementation. The author argues that the global free-rider problem, posed by nonbinding international climate agreements and lack of enforcement, and fossil fuel business-elite power undermine the force of international values and norms. World society scholarship should attend more to (1) whether international participation incurs substantial local costs or powerful stakeholder opposition and (2) whether the benefits of such participation are more domestically or globally distributed.

Da li je pravo vreme za izgradnju velike solarne elektrane u Srbiji?

According to almost all estimates, significant investments in new renewable energy sources in Serbia are needed. Serbia has economically viable potentials of renewable energy sources (RES) (solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, biomass energy, geothermal energy, etc.), so the structure of the production mix in the electricity system should increasingly be based on renewable sources. In this paper, an attempt is made to answer the following questions: does Serbia need new production capacities, does Serbia need new production capacities from RES, and finally, which of the RES would be the most suitable at the moment? The paper assesses whether this is exactly the right moment to accelerate the process of energy transition in Serbia, as well as the opportunity to ensure a more sustainable growth and development through a faster transition to RES. It starts from the fact that increasing the production of electricity from RES, together with measures to increase energy efficiency and decarbonize energy production and consumption, is the backbone of the energy transition and at the same time the essence of Serbia's commitments by joining the Energy Community and accepting international climate agreements. The paper assumes that by increasing the efficiency of the energy sector and use of RES, European policy goals can be achieved in Serbia and that energy sector can be positioned as an engine of stability and sustainable economic development. Secondary effects will lead to increased sustainable employment, reduced public debt and increased competitiveness of the sector. Therefore, the energy transition should be seen as a development opportunity. The construction of large RES plants, especially large solar power plants in Serbia and joining the EU Green Deal, is certainly a signal that Serbia is well on its way to developing a modern, environmentally friendly, competitive and regionally integrated energy system. This will trigger the necessary investments in the modernization of the energy sector and enable the attraction of foreign direct investments. Achieving this vision requires decisive political action at the national and regional levels. Solar projects have the lowest levelized costs of produced kWh of electricity, they are the fastest to implement and they have the least environmental and social impact. Also, large installed capacity can be achieved through a series of large and medium-sized projects that would be territorially distributed in order to reduce the simultaneity of production.

How can New Zealand schools respond to climate change?

International climate agreements say education can play a key role in responding to the global challenge of climate change. My team and I are currently carrying out research to help build a national picture of educational responses to climate change. Our research suggests that New Zealand’s educational policies and strategies currently provide a diffuse framework for responding to climate change, and there is a lack of coherent messaging “from the top” about what could or should be expected of schools. Yet some innovative practices and approaches are visible across the school network. This article describes what we currently know about climate and sustainability thinking and practice across English-medium schools, and what further actions and supports may be needed across the system.

Humanity Can Still Stop Climate Change by Implementing a New International Climate Agreement and Applying Radical New Technology

There is a broad consensus worldwide that anthropogenic climate change is a scientific fact. Likewise, the fact is that the UN’s efforts to address climate change over the last 28 years have not been successful enough. It is evident that the global average temperature is on the rise (1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels in 2019). A particular concern comes from the fact that the Paris Agreement on keeping increases in the global average temperature to below +2 °C is an unenforceable ambition, since the focus is more on consequences than causes. In addition, economic policies regarding global taxes, as well as adaptation and mitigation measures, are questionable, as there is no evidence that changes in the climate system will proceed at the same rate in the coming years. This paper proposes an engineering approach that considers all relevant aspects of the climate change problem and proposes a new policy, named the “Climate New Deal”. It deals with: (i) Reorientation from a high-carbon economy to a green economy; (ii) The intensive use of radically new technology, e.g., “Seawater Steam Engine” technology for the simultaneous production of thermal and electric energy and drinking water; and (iii) The intensive use of energy efficient technologies and RES technologies, especially in transport.

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

A Two-Level Hierarchical Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Application to International Climate Change Negotiations

A novel two-level hierarchical graph model is developed to analyze international climate change negotiations with hierarchical structures: the negotiations take place between two nations and between each nation and its provincial governments. The two national government are two decision makers at the top level. Within each nation, the two provincial governments negotiate with the national government at the lower level. The theoretical structure of this novel model, including decision makers, options, moves, and preference relations, are developed. The interrelationship between the stabilities in the two-level hierarchical graph model and the stabilities in local models are investigated by theorems. These theorems can be utilized to calculate complete stabilities in the two-level hierarchical graph model when the stabilities in local graph models are known. The international climate change negotiations as the illustrative example is then investigated in detail. The extra equilibrium, uniquely obtained by this novel methodology, suggests that opposition may still be from one provincial government when the national government does not sign the international climate agreement and implements existing environmental laws. Compared with other approaches, this novel methodology is an effective and flexible tool in analyzing hierarchical conflicts at two levels by providing decision makers with strategic resolutions with broader vision.

Market responses to global governance: International climate cooperation and Europe's carbon trading

AbstractInternational environmental cooperation can impose significant costs on private firms. Yet, in recent years some companies have been supportive of international climate agreements. This suggests that under certain conditions environmental accords can be profitable. In this paper, I seek to explain this puzzle by focusing on the interaction between domestic regulation and decisions at international climate negotiations. I argue that global climate cooperation hurts the profits of polluting firms if domestic governments do not shield them from international compliance costs. Vice versa, if firms are subject to protective (i.e., insufficiently severe) policy instruments at home, firms can materially gain from international climate agreements that sustain expectations about their profitability. I test the argument with an event study of the effect of decisions at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on major European firms that received free carbon permits in the early stages of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The analysis suggests that financial markets carefully follow the international climate negotiations, and reward the regulated firms based on the outcome of UNFCCC decisions. The evidence also indicates the advantageous interplay between certain types of domestic regulations and international regimes for business. More generally, the results show the perils of privately supported policy for the effectiveness of international public good provision.

On the scope of climate finance to facilitate international agreement on climate change

Can the promise of climate finance help secure an international climate agreement that makes all parties better off? This paper shows that incentive compatible, financial transfers are always feasible and can facilitate a globally efficient agreement if they are bounded by the net benefits of avoided climate damages and forgone economic growth. In contrast, climate finance will generally come up short when based on conventional arguments that seek compensation for foregone economic growth, climate damages (i.e., “loss and damage”), or both. Empirical evidence is provided with a calibrated simulation using the C-DICE integrated assessment model.

Measures to enhance the effectiveness of international climate agreements: The case of border carbon adjustments

Actions on climate change which are not supported by all countries are not very effective. However, full participation in a global climate treaty with meaningful emission reductions is difficult to achieve. The non-excludability of the public good mitigation provides an incentive to abstain from global action. Moreover, carbon leakage renders it unattractive to join a treaty without full participation. We study whether and under which conditions border carbon adjustments (BCAs) can mitigate free-riding and reduce carbon leakage in a simple strategic trade model. We show that BCAs can lead to large stable climate agreements, including full participation, associated with large global welfare gains if treaties do not restrict membership (open membership), as this is typical for environmental agreements. We caution against restricting accession to treaties (exclusive membership), as this is typical for trade agreements, which may serve individual but not global interests.

Climate thresholds and heterogeneous regions: Implications for coalition formation

The threat of climate catastrophes has been shown to radically change optimal climate policy and prospects for international climate agreements. We characterize the strategic behavior in emissions mitigation and agreement participation with a potential climate catastrophe happening at a temperature threshold. Players are heterogeneous in a conceptual and two numerical models. We confirm that thresholds can induce large, stable coalitions. The relationship between the location of the threshold and the potential for cooperation is non-linear, with the highest potential for cooperation at intermediate temperature thresholds located between 2.5 and 3 degrees of global warming. We find that some regions such as Europe, the USA and China are often pivotal to keeping the threshold because the rest of the world abandons ambitious mitigation and the threshold is crossed without their participation. As a result, their incentives to cooperate can be amplified at the threshold. This behavior critically depends on the characteristics of the threshold as well as the numerical model structure. Conversely, non-pivotal regions are more likely to free-ride as the threshold inverts the strategic response of the remaining coalition. Moreover, we find that our results depend on which equilibrium concepts is applied to analyze coalition formation as well as the introduction of uncertainty about the threshold.

Policy governance of climate change to strengthen national resilience in Indonesia

Economic growth has led to tremendous environmental changes including resulted pollution, overexploitation of natural resources (biodiversity), converted land/sea (reclamation) and increasing carbon emissions. How developing countries have ability to manage climate change impacts as committed in international climate agreement such as the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), UNFCCC, COP 21 and so on, is important to be analyzed. As middle income countries, most developing countries (such as Indonesia) have already dealed with other various issues – political, economic, social, etc – in which most government put their priorities and allocate most of their resources to solve those challenges. It is critical to provide policy framework on adaptation and mitigation of climate change impact to strengthen national resilience. As conceptual paper this study aims to analyse the policy governance that integrate the perspective of social and economic issues to address the impacts of climate change on particular case. By exploring global issues of multi level perspectives, this paper provides several propositions for policy makers to strengthen the key strategic policy in national and local contexts of climate change challenges.

Market-pull policies to promote renewable energy: A quantitative assessment of tendering implementation

Policymakers ideally select the support mechanism that better foments renewable energy production at the lowest cost to comply with international climate agreements. Currently, tendering is the fastest rising scheme. Yet a quantitative assessment of its performance in the literature is missing. We assess the effect of the introduction of auctions in accelerating the addition of renewable capacity through three econometric models: fixed-effects multivariate regression, statistical matching and synthetic control. The dataset includes 20 developed countries, spanning from 2004 to 2014, and both macroeconomic and policy drivers. Results show that tendering has the strongest effects to promote net renewable capacity comparing to other mechanisms like feed-in tariffs. Countries implementing tendering on average have a higher addition of net capacity of renewables in the order of 1000–2000 MW annually. The positive effect of tenders is clearer when analyzing with synthetic controls the case of Italy: while tendering enhances the deployment of renewables, policy instability jeopardizes the sustainability of tendering’s impact.

Relating financial systems to sustainability transitions: Challenges, demands and design features

The Paris Climate Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals and Addis Ababa Action Agenda call for the financial system to be “consistent and integrated” in its response to the sustainability and climate breakdown. Sustainability transitions research (STR) and orthodox finance literature are failing to engage with these calls. This paper offers three contributions to address this issue. Firstly, it scopes the sustainability-related finance literature and finds broad but fragmented research strands with limited critical analysis and little cross-engagement with STR. Secondly, the paper draws on insights from STR and international climate and sustainable development agreements to propose a transition demand framework that characterises the explicit demands that sustainability transitions place on the financial system (understood as intermediaries, markets and infrastructure). Thirdly, the paper considers essential design features for financial systems to meet the specific demands of sustainability transitions and identifies critical questions for broadening research in this area.

Flexible Options for Greenhouse Gas-Emitting Energy Producer

The reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) constitutes part of the international climate agreements and contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals. This research is motivated by the risks associated with the future C O 2 price uncertainty in the context of the offsetting of carbon emissions by regulated entities. The research asked whether it is possible to reduce these financial risks. In this study, we consider the bilateral interaction of a REDD supplier and a greenhouse gas (GHG)-emitting energy producer in an incomplete emission offsets market. Within this setting, we explore an innovative financial instrument—flobsion—a flexible option with benefit-sharing. For the quantitative assessment, we used a research method based on a two-stage stochastic technological portfolio optimization model established in earlier studies. First, we obtain an important result that the availability of REDD offsets does not increase the optimal emissions of the electricity producer under any future C O 2 price realization. Moreover, addressing concerns about a possible “crowding–out” effect of REDD-based offsets, we demonstrate that the emissions and offsetting cost will decrease and increase, respectively. Second, we demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed instrument by analyzing flobsion contracts with respect to the benefit-sharing ratio and strike price within the risk-adjusted supply and demand framework. Finally, we perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to C O 2 price distributions and the opportunity costs of the forest owner supplying REDD offsets. Our results show that flobsion’s flexibility has advantages compared to a standard option, which can help GHG-emitting energy producers with managing their compliance risks, while at the same time facilitating the development of REDD programs. In this study we limited our analysis to the case of the same C O 2 price distributions foreseen by both parties; the flobsion pricing under asymmetric information could be considered in the future.

The influence of the energy transition on the significance of key energy metrics

Transparent, consistent accounting of climate-related energy targets is a fundamental building block to the architecture of international climate agreements. Many of these climate targets focus on the transition of the energy system which has led to the development of various energy transition scenarios. Now that fossil resources are being replaced by non-combustible and renewable energy sources a re-assessment of the applicability of the current set of metrics on which these energy scenarios are based is necessary.Now that energy derived from renewable and non-combustible resources with abundant availability but limited instantaneous availability becomes more prominent the ongoing electrification of the energy system combined with the decarbonisation of the electricity system has caused the current set of energy scenario metrics to become ambiguous. More specifically we show that Total Primary Energy (TPE) and its related indicators, Energy Efficiency (EE), Energy Intensity (EI) as well as the key metric Electricity Generation Capacity (EGC) have become unrepresentative, potentially misleading and for a large part irrelevant. This is problematic as these metrics steer climate policy and investment decisions based on statistical artefacts rather than valid representation of the energy system. This study concludes with a set of requirements on energy scenarios to overcome these problems that will lead energy scenarios to focus on Total Final Consumption within a mix of related energy metrics.