Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

Modeling the impact of sea level rise on endangered deer habitat

Numerous unique flora and fauna inhabit the Lower Florida Keys, including the endangered Florida Key deer, found nowhere else. In this vulnerable habitat of flat islands with low elevation, accelerated sea level rise poses a threat. Predicting the impact of sea level rise on vegetation and wildlife is crucial. This study used 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sea level rise scenarios to assess their effects on No Name Key, Florida. The goal was to estimate changes in the Florida Key deer population relative to sea level rise using a lidar-derived elevation data and a vegetation map. The method used 2 cases to model the sea level rise impact. In Case 1, total non-submerged area at current sea level was determined. Using 5 IPCC scenarios, a new total non-submerged land area was estimated, and deer numbers were predicted for each scenario. In Case 2, upward migration of coastal vegetation combined with the coastal squeeze process was modeled. A distinct elevation range for each vegetation type at the current sea level was determined. Vegetation ranges were redistributed based on respective elevation ranges in the sea level rise scenarios. Areas for each vegetation type were recalculated, and Key deer numbers were estimated for each sea level rise scenario. Results under the worst emission scenario showed the following: (1) for case 1, the land area was reduced to 30 % of the current land area, corresponding to having about 27 deer, and (2) for case 2, the land area was reduced to 70 % of the current land area, having about 54 deer on No Name Key. The results indicated reduced non-submerged land area and less upland vegetation, particularly hardwoods/hammocks, by the year 2100. As less land area is available, a decline in Key deer population is expected as sea levels rise. Since Key deer favor upland vegetation, habitat affected by sea level rise will likely support a smaller deer population. The findings emphasize the need for precise, timely predictions of sea level rise impacts and long-term conservation strategies. Specifically designed measures are required to protect and maintain endangered wildlife, such as the Florida Key deer, residing on these vulnerable islands.

The social construction of sustainable futures: how models and scenarios limit climate mitigation possibilities

ABSTRACT This article shines a light on the act of social construction of climate change mitigation as a policy issue at the hands of expert bodies enjoying epistemic power, notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) as key tools. This is crucial to the politics of tackling climate change as IPCC models and scenarios profoundly shape what are seen as viable futures and mitigation policy options. Analysing how technocratic governance bodies broach climate change, its mitigation, and the associated economic costs and implications, reveals contestations within the technocratic politics of climate change. The particular social construction of mitigation as a policy issue through IAMs and IPCC scenarios has important and real socio-ecological consequences. This engagement with the technocratic politics of mitigation problematises five key assumptions that are fed into modelling, and reveals why and how they matter politically. We also highlight ways in which contestable assumptions built into IPCC IAMs undermine their credibility and usefulness for planning mitigation strategies.

Climate change causes spatial shifts in the productivity of agricultural long-term field experiments

Long-term field experiments (LTE) are highly valuable infrastructures in agricultural- and soil sciences for understanding the long-term impacts of climate and management practices. While they are designed to run under constant conditions, climate change is expected to affect site conditions considerably. This needs to be quantified when interpreting experimental results and when redesigning the experimental setup. One way to achieve this is by utilizing vegetation growth and carbon dynamics, specifically the Net Primary Productivity (NPP), as a spatially explicit indicator. NPP facilitates the assessment and interpretation of yield performance in LTEs under future climatic conditions. Our study estimated the changes in NPP for 271 LTE sites in Germany, comparing a baseline (2000–2020) with two scenarios (2081–2100) that were based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP245) and SSP585) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We used the NASA-CASA biogeochemical model to calculate NPP in baseline and IPCC scenarios using Germany as a test case. LTEs were grouped by land use (crop types) and soil information (soil type, texture), drawing on the geodata infrastructure “BonaRes Repository”. The total annual terrestrial NPP for the baseline was calculated as 202.4 Mt C (sum of forests, grasslands, and arable lands) in Germany, while total NPP was up to 56.0 Mt C for different land use types. For both scenarios, NPP was projected to increase in LTEs located in southern Germany, indicating increased crop productivity, while a decrease was projected for the central Germany. The decrease in NPP of numerous LTEs in central Germany was estimated to extend to the LTEs in the eastern part corresponding to the worst-case scenario SSP585. Explicitly, the use of the multi-model ensemble mean as the climate driver in modelling may overestimate projected NPP by reducing inter-annual variability, highlighting the importance of methodological choices for accurate future projections. Besides, the results indicated that poor soils are projected to experience a further decline in productivity, primarily attributed to escalating water scarcity. Conversely, soils with high quality are likely to witness enhanced productivity, largely driven by the extension of the growing seasons. The outcomes of this study provide a basis for considering the future conditions of German LTEs and facilitate distinguishing between the effects of climate change and the impact of agricultural management on productivity at the regional level. These outputs enable planning and developing research strategies for selecting future LTE sites and redesigning existing or newly planned experiments. Moreover, the integrated modelling framework presented here highlights the potential of LTE data for large-scale modelling studies of ecosystem functions.

Characterization of uncertainty in maximum tidal elevation near Bangladesh coastline due to uncertain sea level rise

AbstractThe Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna delta is vulnerable to sea level rise from global warming. Based on sea level rise predictions for the year 2100 given in the 6th Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we examine the effect of uncertainty in sea level rise on maximum tidal elevation statistics at several locations along the Bangladesh coastline using a discretized derived distribution approach. For five IPCC scenarios, the standard deviation in maximum tidal elevation including sea level rise is predicted to increase by between 3% and 61% at three different locations for a 41% increase in the standard deviation of mean sea level rise. By excluding the linear effect of sea level rise, the increase in the standard deviation of maximum tidal elevation is found to vary spatially from 2% to 68% with a 41% increase in the standard deviation of sea level rise.

Increase in the Erosion Rate Due to the Impact of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise: Victoria Beach, a Case Study

This article provides a general methodology for calculating the retreat of the coastline and the volume of sand necessary to renourish a beach due to sea level rise (SLR) in the medium-long term. An example is presented, Victoria Beach, and a projection is made for the years 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2100. The results obtained take into account global sea level rise (GSLR), which is worldwide, and local sea level rise (LSLR), which considers climate variability and vertical land movements. Regarding GSLR, data were provided by the projections from IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios and empirical models, such as Rahmstorf and Pfeffer. The LSLR data came from the tide gauge station located in Cadiz. Finally, the results obtained showed that global warming impacts erosive effects and the subsequent volume of sand required to renourish beaches. The total sea level rise (TSLR) projections indicated for Victoria Beach are relatively higher than the GSLR projections. Even in the best IPCC scenario (RCP 2.6), Victoria Beach presents a significant erosion of 52 m, requiring a volume of sand of 1.0 Mm3 to supply renourishment.

Climate change conditions the selection of rust-resistant candidate wild lentil populations for in situ conservation.

Crop Wild Relatives (CWR) are a valuable source of genetic diversity that can be transferred to commercial crops, so their conservation will become a priority in the face of climate change. Bizarrely, in situ conserved CWR populations and the traits one might wish to preserve in them are themselves vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used a quantitative machine learning predictive approach to project the resistance of CWR populations of lentils to a common disease, lentil rust, caused by fungus Uromyces viciae-fabae. Resistance is measured through a proxy quantitative value, DSr (Disease Severity relative), quite complex and expensive to get. Therefore, machine learning is a convenient tool to predict this magnitude using a well-curated georeferenced calibration set. Previous works have provided a binary outcome (resistant vs. non-resistant), but that approach is not fine enough to answer three practical questions: which variables are key to predict rust resistance, which CWR populations are resistant to rust under current environmental conditions, and which of them are likely to keep this trait under different climate change scenarios. We first predict rust resistance in present time for crop wild relatives that grow up inside protected areas. Then, we use the same models under future climate IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios to predict future DSr values. Populations that are rust-resistant by now and under future conditions are optimal candidates for further evaluation and in situ conservation of this valuable trait. We have found that rust-resistance variation as a result of climate change is not uniform across the geographic scope of the study (the Mediterranean basin), and that candidate populations share some interesting common environmental conditions.

Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range

Despite the increasing awareness of climate change, few studies have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to simulate the effects of climate change on estuarine populations of crustaceans. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and salinity fluctuations on the population dynamics of the shore crab Carcinus maenas at the southern edge of its native range. To this end, a population dynamics model was developed based on experimental and literature data on the biology, ecology and physiology of the species. Results showed that the shore crab will be more affected by changes in temperature than in salinity. The parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the larval phase of the species is the most sensitive stage of the shore crab life cycle. Three IPCC scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-8.5) were used to simulate the effects of temperature increase on the population of C. maenas in the near- (2040), mid- (2060), and long-term (2100). Two scenarios of drought conditions accompanied by the estimated salinity change were also simulated (10 % and 40 % drought). Results suggested that slight increases in temperature (up to 2 °C) lead to a strong increase on the density of C. maenas in the mid-term, while further temperature increases lead to a decline or local extinction of the shore crab population at the southern edge of its distribution range. Results indicated that a salinity increase in the estuary had a negative effect on the shore crab population. Given the importance of the species to temperate coastal ecosystems, both population increase and local extinction are likely to have significant impacts on estuarine communities and food webs, with unknown ecological and socioeconomic consequences.

Metagenomic shifts in mucus, tissue and skeleton of the coral Balanophyllia europaea living along a natural CO2 gradient

Using the Mediterranean coral Balanophyllia europaea naturally growing along a pH gradient close to Panarea island (Italy) as a model, we explored the role of host-associated microbiomes in coral acclimatization to ocean acidification (OA). Coral samples were collected at three sites along the gradient, mimicking seawater conditions projected for 2100 under different IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios, and mucus, soft tissue and skeleton associated microbiomes were characterized by shotgun metagenomics. According to our findings, OA induced functional changes in the microbiomes genetic potential that could mitigate the sub-optimal environmental conditions at three levels: i. selection of bacteria genetically equipped with functions related to stress resistance; ii. shifts in microbial carbohydrate metabolism from energy production to maintenance of cell membranes and walls integrity; iii. gain of functions able to respond to variations in nitrogen needs at the holobiont level, such as genes devoted to organic nitrogen mobilization. We hence provided hypotheses about the functional role of the coral associated microbiome in favoring host acclimatation to OA, remarking on the importance of considering the crosstalk among all the components of the holobiont to unveil how and to what extent corals will maintain their functionality under forthcoming ocean conditions.

Impact of climate change on crop yield of corn (Zea mays L.) in the Canton Junín, Province of Manabí

Agriculture provides a significant fraction of the food consumed worldwide. In Ecuador, a large area is dedicated to the production of corn (Zea mays L.). However, the progress of current projections in agriculture may be directly affected by climate change and its effects. The present study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) crop yields over the last 10 years (2010 - 2020) and to predict future yields under different climate change scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Variables such as rainfall, temperatures, heliophany, evapotranspiration, solar radiation, and humidity recorded in the last 10 years on a monthly and annual basis were considered. The data were obtained from two weather stations, and their impact on the yield of this crop on different farms was analyzed by linear regression. The ArcGis program was used to predict the 10-year corn production (yield) under the different IPCC scenarios, through the analysis of the Maxent model for Zea mays. The current situation of maize (Zea mays L.) in the Junín canton is affected by considerable climatic variations and other serious effects that are detrimental to the local agricultural system.

Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2050. These scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 °C. The subset of plausible IPCC scenarios does not represent all possible trajectories of future emissions and warming. Collectively, they project continued mitigation progress and suggest the world is presently on a lower emissions trajectory than is often assumed. However, these scenarios also indicate that the world is still off track from limiting 21st-century warming to 1.5 °C or below 2 °C.

The 1.5°C climate and energy scenarios: impacts on economic growth

Abstract In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in gross domestic product, [GDP]) in developed countries for them to be able to reduce emissions to ‘net zero’ in time for the temperature target in the Paris Agreement to be met, this article explores the various impacts on economic growth in the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that limit the average global temperature increase in 2100 to 1.5°C. It finds that the impacts are generally small and that in no case is ‘degrowth’ required, although the requirements for the rate and nature of technological developments are challenging. The article then reports on a modelling exercise that investigates in more detail the economic dynamics of achieving the 1.5°C target. It finds that, as with the IPCC scenarios, and assuming the feasibility of at-scale deployment of carbon capture and negative emission technologies, economic growth continues throughout this century, with a major contribution coming from the investment required to decarbonise the energy system.

Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi‐arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate

AbstractAlthough the Urmia Lake has undergone remarkable drought conditions within the past decades mainly due to climate change, drought studies covering the entire Urmia Lake Basin and all drought aspects are lacking. The present study investigated the spatial and temporal drought conditions in the Urmia Lake Basin for the past (1988–2017) and future (2021–2050 and 2051–2080) periods using five general circulation models (GCMs) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were compared. The SPEI predicted more drought events than the SPI, and it seemed to be a more suitable drought index than the SPI for the basin. In general, the future periods would encounter less drought conditions in terms of significant drought trends and duration than the observed period under all scenarios, but the frequency of quarterly severe drought events in the future periods would be higher than in the observed period. Furthermore, the stations Urmia (western bank) and Tabriz and Maragheh (eastern banks) would face the highest frequency of different types of quarterly drought events in the future periods compared with the observed period. The predicted high frequencies of drought events for the future periods can intensify the current low water level situation of the Urmia Lake, which seriously threatens all types of ecosystems in the basin. Therefore, serious actions need to be taken into account for efficient ecosystem and water resources management in the basin.

Beach nourishment versus sea level rise on Florida’s coasts

Beach nourishment and sea level rise will dominate future shoreline changes on Florida’s 665 miles of sandy coast. Shoreline changes from 2020-2100 are projected along this entire coast using equilibrium profile theory that accurately predicted shoreline changes on Florida’s east coast from 1970-2017 (Houston 2019). Projections for 2020- 2100 are made assuming past rates of beach nourishment for the 30-yr period from 1988-2017 will continue and sea level will rise according to recent projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that include the latest knowledge on ice melting in Antarctica (IPCC 2019). Using the beach nourishment and sea level rise data, equilibrium profile theory is then used to predict shoreline change from 2020-2100 for each IPCC sea level rise projection. Beach nourishment is shown to produce shoreline advance seaward on average for all IPCC scenarios for both the entire Florida coast and east coast and for all scenarios except the upper confidence level of the worst scenario for the southwest and Panhandle coasts. Some of the 30 counties on these coasts will require a greater rate of nourishment than in the past to offset sea level rise for some or all of the scenarios, whereas some will offset sea level rise for all scenarios with lower nourishment rates than in the past. The annual beach nourishment volume for which a county has a shortfall or surplus in offsetting sea level rise for each IPCC scenario can be calculated with the information provided and examples are presented. The approach can be used on coasts outside Florida if beach nourishment and sea level rise are expected to dominate future shoreline change.

Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change.

The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well-delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so-called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two-step approach was developed combining species distribution modeling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modeling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO is discussed with regard to the modeled benthic ecoregions. In all, 12 benthic ecoregions were determined under present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.

Chromosomal Mapping of Rex Retrotransposons in Tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818) Exposed to Three Climate Change Scenarios

Greenhouse gas emissions are known to influence the planet's temperature, mainly due to human activities. To allow hypothesis testing, as well as to seek viable alternatives for mitigation, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested 3 main scenarios for changes projected for the year 2100. In this paper, we subjected Colossoma macropomum Cuvier, 1818 (tambaqui) individuals in a microcosm to IPCC scenarios B1 (mild), A1B (intermediate), and A2 (extreme) to test possible impacts on their genome. We found chromosome heterochromatinization in specimens exposed to the A2 scenario, where terminal blocks and interstitial bands were detected on several chromosome pairs. The behavior of Rex1 and Rex3 sequences differed between the test scenarios. Hybridization of Rex1 resulted in diffuse signals which showed a gradual increase in the tested scenarios. For Rex3, an increase was observed in the A2 scenario with blocks on several chromosomes, some of which coincided with heterochromatin. Heterochromatinization is an epigenetic process, which may have occurred as a mechanism for regulating Rex3 activity. The signal pattern of Rex6 did not change, suggesting that other mechanisms are acting to regulate its activity.

Facilitating Climate-Smart Investments

The financial sector will play a key role in transitioning toward low-carbon and climate-resilient development, but financial decision makers need tailored information to guide climate-smart investment decisions. Here, we reflect upon the Sustainable Edge report and investor engagement to pilot a new approach to climate-risk assessment for companies.

Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate

Climate change has shaped bee distributions over the past century. Here, we conducted the first species-specific assessment of future climate change impacts on North American bumblebee distributions, using the most recent global change scenarios developed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We assessed potential shifts in bumblebee species distributions with models generated using Maxent. We tested different assumptions about bumblebee species’ dispersal capacities, drawing on observed patterns of range shifts to date, dispersal rates observed for bumblebee queens, and, lastly, assuming unlimited dispersal. Models show significant contractions of current ranges even under scenarios in which dispersal rates were high. Results suggest that dispersal rates may not suffice for bumblebees to track climate change as rapidly as required under any IPCC scenario for future climate change. Areas where species losses are projected overlap for many species and climate scenarios, and are concentrated in eastern parts of the continent. Models also show overlap for range expansions across many species, suggesting the presence of “hotspots” where management activities could benefit many species, across all climate scenarios. Broad-scale strategies are likely to be necessary to improve bumblebee conservation prospects under climate change.

Climate Change Impact on Rainfall and Temperature Distributions Over West Africa from Three IPCC Scenarios

The study investigates the climate change impact on monthly and seasonal distribution of rainfall and temperature of three scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) between year 2000 and 2099. The analysis considered two climatic periods which are 2000 to 2029 as present and 2070 to 2099 as future. The ten-year mean (decadal) analyses of these two parameters were also performed. The result showed that temperature increases over West Africa countries in all the months under each of the scenarios. Scenario A2 with the highest emission of 800 ppm shows the highest increase of temperature and rainfall over West Africa followed by scenario A1B with emission of 720 ppm and the least is that of B1 with the lowest emission of 550 ppm. The result also showed that rainfall increases over most part of West Africa in all the scenarios with the exception of coastline that a little decrease in amount of rainfall was estimated. However, the decadal analysis shows that there is a gradual and almost consistent increase in temperature and rainfall over West Africa. Monthly mean values of scenario B1 estimated higher in all the months than its scenario A1B counterpart while those of A1B are also higher than those of scenario B1. The result implies that the higher the emission, the higher is the temperature which leads to warmer future and most likely the more rainfall and hence likelihood of flooding, more occurrence of heat wave and other high temperature related problems. It therefore recommended that IPCC regulation to reduce emission should be strictly adhered to by all countries so that the world can have a better future to dwell in.

Моделі інтегральної оцінки для моделювання політик пом'якшення зміни клімату

Based on all relevant socio-political information the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) develops base and alternative scenarios, which are used for developing climate mitigation policies. An Integrated Assessment models are used for quantitative evaluation of new IPCC scenarios (SSPs, RCPs, SPAs). The Integrated Assessment Models of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) are used for assessment of IPCC scenarios. MESSAGE, G4M, GLOBIOM, MACRO, GAINS and MAGICC are used for forecasting and developing of climate mitigation policies in a field of air pollution, land use change and energy sector. Key words: Integrated Assessment Models, IPCC, scenarios, climate mitigation policies, climate change.

Geoinformatics vulnerability predictions of coastal ecosystems to sea-level rise in southeastern Australia

ABSTRACTCoastlines are dynamic environments, with their Eco-geomorphology controlled by a complex range of natural and anthropic processes. Estuarine environments and associated wetland ecosystems are a critical shoreline types with regards to biodiversity, and are particularly susceptible to the influence of sea-level rise.This project applied future sea-level rise of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) hydro-scenarios to assess its impact on the eco-geomorphic aspects of coastal ecosystems in terms of risk assessment and sustainability. Comerong Island is used as a case study and is compared with other surrounding ocean-influenced and lagoonal deltas to assess the regional effects of sea-level rise. Applying the IPCC scenarios to the chosen geomorphic coastal data-sets resulted in a hydro-geomorphic model that shows the study site was already under pressure in 2015, with significant land area projected to be lost by 2050 and 2100. These findings are also expected to occur across the remaining estuaries in southeastern Australia. Applying this broad-scale, multi-strand application of geoinformatics simulation (GIS & RS), together with the various IPCC sea-level rise scenarios, will be necessary to assess future ecosystem sustainability management plans for coastal zones worldwide.