Abstract
ABSTRACTCoastlines are dynamic environments, with their Eco-geomorphology controlled by a complex range of natural and anthropic processes. Estuarine environments and associated wetland ecosystems are a critical shoreline types with regards to biodiversity, and are particularly susceptible to the influence of sea-level rise.This project applied future sea-level rise of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) hydro-scenarios to assess its impact on the eco-geomorphic aspects of coastal ecosystems in terms of risk assessment and sustainability. Comerong Island is used as a case study and is compared with other surrounding ocean-influenced and lagoonal deltas to assess the regional effects of sea-level rise. Applying the IPCC scenarios to the chosen geomorphic coastal data-sets resulted in a hydro-geomorphic model that shows the study site was already under pressure in 2015, with significant land area projected to be lost by 2050 and 2100. These findings are also expected to occur across the remaining estuaries in southeastern Australia. Applying this broad-scale, multi-strand application of geoinformatics simulation (GIS & RS), together with the various IPCC sea-level rise scenarios, will be necessary to assess future ecosystem sustainability management plans for coastal zones worldwide.
Highlights
The earth as a planet has had balanced and sustainable Holocene ecosystems for thousands of years (Tilman et al 1996; Michener et al 1997; Siddall et al 2003)
This paper provides significant results from case studies about future vulnerability of eastern Australian coastal ecosystems, in a geomorphological context, to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2013, 2014) Global Mean Sea-Level Rise (GMSLR) scenarios
This study approach has resulted in similar outcomes for the other four chosen study sites on the southeastern coast of Australia, indicating that similar effects would accrue on the whole east Australian coastline and worldwide
Summary
The earth as a planet has had balanced and sustainable Holocene ecosystems (eco-sustainability) for thousands of years (Tilman et al 1996; Michener et al 1997; Siddall et al 2003). It has faced fluctuating Quaternary weather conditions (Fairbanks 1989), like glaciations followed by warm periods (Siddall et al 2003), its coastal ecosystems have become balanced and stabilized during the Holocene, especially within last 4000 years in Australia (Michener et al 1997; Watson 1999; Troedson et al 2004; Steffen et al 2009).
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