Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Report Research Articles

Responding to the climate crisis – taking action on the IPCC 6th Assessment Report

Responding to the climate crisis – taking action on the <scp>IPCC</scp> 6th <scp>Assessment Report</scp>

Communicating climate change: how (not) to touch a cord with people and promote action

Abstract Climate science has established human activity as the major cause of climate change. The successive reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have also provided future scenarios of the detrimental effect of rising temperatures. Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus, the voices of climate deniers are still given ample space in the media. Moreover, the urgency of the problem and the importance of taking action are difficult to communicate to the public. This paper analyses the communication strategies employed by climate scientists, climate deniers and climate activists to identify similarities and differences, in particular with regard to expressing (un)certainty. The data are media reports from major British and US newspapers, IPCC reports and the speeches of climate activists, in particular Greta Thunberg. The data are analysed by means of qualitative (eco)critical discourse analysis. The aim is to draw conclusions about how climate change could be communicated more effectively to the general public to promote action.

Communications in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report cycle

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been renewing its communications activities in the current assessment cycle, building on the innovations that underpinned the Fifth Assessment Report. An Expert Meeting on Communication in Oslo in 2016 sought to compile and discuss the lessons learnt during Fifth Assessment Report and inform the Communications Strategies for the Sixth Assessment Report (The overall Communications Strategy is adopted by the IPCC. Individual communications strategies for the various reports are signed off by the Chair and respective Co-Chairs.) This article describes the progress made, in the context of the IPCC’s communications goals and specific challenges. Developments in the current cycle include a more systematic approach to developing key statements to communicate the findings of the reports. The IPCC has expanded the number and geographic range of its outreach activities, targeting interested stakeholders beyond the core audience of policymakers. Communications work was strengthened by reinforcing the Working Group Technical Support Units, which support the author teams, with communications specialists. The first product in this cycle, the 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C, was by some measures the most influential report on climate change to date. It attracted enormous media coverage, transforming and galvanizing public interest in global warming. With the two subsequent special reports in 2019 on land and the ocean and cryosphere, this has focused attention and scrutiny on the IPCC. The latest report, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, was released in August 2021 and broke all records for coverage of an IPCC report. This makes effective communication all the more important, for the remainder of the current cycle due for completion in 2022 and beyond.

Nature Is for Trees, Culture Is for Humans: A Critical Reading of the IPCC Report

In this article, we problematize conventional views regarding culture presented in the assessment report entitled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. This report is a contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We posit that when culture is seen as a stable category and imagined as a space composed of humans—and, more precisely, only certain humans—an epistemological, ontological, and ethical order is reproduced in which (a) nature is framed as a passive and apolitical “out there”, (b) knowledge based on this division is misleading and partial (e.g., social scientists study culture and natural scientists study nature), and (c) dominant humanist assumptions become common-sense explanations for inequalities. We conduct a critical discourse analysis of the IPCC report to better understand which assumptions produce the conceptualization of culture as a stable category. In our conclusion, we offer an example of a semiotic-meaning intervention of a section of the report to demonstrate the vitality of the concepts presented in this document. Subsequently, we discuss the consequences of omitting the vital traffic between the biological, social, and cultural realms from discussions on climate change to reexamine the production and reproduction of inequalities.

Communicating climate change findings from IPCC reports: insights from outreach events in India

In recent years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been collaborating with Indian institutions to organise outreach events. This essay draws on the perspective of participants, speakers and organisers of 17 in-person outreach events conducted across India in 2018 and 2020, to share insights and recommendations for future IPCC events in India and other developing country contexts. The formats analysed in this essay range from panel events with very large public audiences to more focused workshops, meetings and seminars. Target audiences covered both academic and non-academic audiences and included researchers, teachers, students, industry and NGOs. The events, while achieving their main objective of communicating the findings of IPCC reports, also provided a platform for open discussion of localised climate impacts and good practices in adaptation and mitigation. There are, however, notable challenges to public outreach in India, specifically in terms of attracting an adequate number of participants, experts’ availability, communicating to a diverse audience and translation into local languages. The biggest challenge faced by speakers was a lack of knowledge about the number of attendees and the composition of the audience prior to an event. It is our recommendation that future outreach events in India are designed to be interactive, tailored to the regional context and complemented by simplified communication materials. Speakers should be provided with audience information and background prior to the event, and greater reach into rural areas, including school children, could be achieved with material in local languages. Additionally, event organisers often require logistical and operational support to host outreach events.

Co-designing engaging and accessible data visualisations: a case study of the IPCC reports

Creating scientifically rigorous and user-friendly data visualisations can play a critical role in making complex information more accessible to wider audiences and supporting informed decision-making. ‘Co-design’ encapsulates a way of approaching data visualisation that ensures a deep and shared understanding between those creating the visuals (e.g. information designers, content experts, cognitive scientists) and the audience/users. This essay describes co-designing data visualisations with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A multidisciplinary design team made up of information designers and cognitive and social scientists worked closely with IPCC authors and staff to develop data visualisations for the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C and the Special Report on Climate Change and Land. In this essay, the authors consider the three crucial elements that underpin a successful co-design process—practical tools and a flexible method; cognitive science and psychology to better understand the needs of users; and the importance of trust and leadership. The authors reflect on the application of the co-design approach in an IPCC context, noting specific challenges and including recommendations for future IPCC reports. The mutual learning experience of the special reports indicates a shift towards a design culture within parts of the IPCC that recognises the value of telling a compelling visual story while retaining scientific integrity—an approach that has been retained for the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report.

Equity in human adaptation-related responses: A systematic global review

Equity in human adaptation-related responses: A systematic global review

Climate science report paints dire picture, with consequences and opportunities for chemistry

On Aug. 9, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its sixth assessment report on climate science . The message from the United Nations body is dire: because of the world’s industrial history of spewing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, some catastrophic effects, such as sea level rise, are now unavoidable. However, the world does have the opportunity to avoid more extreme average temperature increases. Dramatic emission cuts and the adoption of technologies like carbon capture could reduce CO 2 emissions to net zero by 2050. That would ensure global average temperatures slightly exceed, then return to, around 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. The IPCC report also focuses on potent “short-lived climate forcers” like methane and black carbon, which warm the planet but don’t persist as long as CO 2 . Changing atmospheric levels of these short-lived gases and

Controversy around climate change reports: a case study of Twitter responses to the 2019 IPCC report on land

In August 2019, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), which generated extensive societal debate and interest in mainstream and social media. Using computational and conceptual text analysis, we examined more than 6,000 English-language posts on Twitter to establish the relative presence of different topics. Then, we assessed their levels of toxicity and sentiment polarity as an indication of contention and controversy. We find first that meat consumption and dietary options became one of the most discussed issues on Twitter in response to the IPCC report, even though it was a relatively minor element of the report; second, this new issue of controversy (meat and diet) had similar, high levels of toxicity to strongly contentious issues in previous IPCC reports (skepticism about climate science and the credibility of the IPCC). We suggest that this is in part a reflection of increasingly polarized narratives about meat and diet found in other areas of public discussion and of a movement away from criticism of climate science towards criticism of climate solutions. Finally, we discuss the possible implications of these findings for the work of the IPCC in anticipating responses to its reports and responding to them effectively.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Transparency and integrated assessment modeling

AbstractIntegrated assessment models (IAMs) connect trends in future socioeconomic and technological development with impacts on the environment, such as global climate change. They occupy a critical position at the global science‐policy interface. IAMs and associated scenarios have come under intense scrutiny, with critiques addressing both methodological and substantive issues, such as land use, carbon dioxide removal and technology performance. Criticisms have also addressed the transparency of IAM methods and assumptions as well as the transparency of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of IAMs. This paper, authored by the co‐chairs of IPCC Working Group III and members of the Technical Support Unit, documents activities aiming to enhance the transparency of IAMs and their assessment. It includes a history of IPCC's approach to scenarios covering the formation of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) in 2007 and the emergence of the approach by which IPCC facilitates the development of scenarios, but does not produce them itself. An IPCC Expert Meeting at the start of the current assessment cycle made transparency recommendations targeted at both the research community and IPCC. The community has taken steps to “open the black box” by moving toward open‐source and web‐publishing IAM documentation. IPCC has included an Annex to its next report focusing on scenarios and modeling methodologies. An open call for scenario data linked to the current IPCC report includes an expanded set of input and output variables. This paper ends with suggested criteria for measuring the success of these efforts to improve transparency.This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change &gt; Applications of Integrated Assessment to Climate Change Integrated Assessment of Climate Change &gt; Integrated Assessment Modeling

Food Security Under The Era Of Climate Change Threat

Food Security Under The Era Of Climate Change Threat

Tracking the quality of scientific knowledge inputs in reports generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The purpose of this study is to track the quality and types of knowledge used over time when developing internationally sanctioned scientific reports such as those on climate change. We present a bibliometric analysis of the Global Assessment Reports on Climate Change written by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) between 1990 and 2014. Analysis is based on a proportional stratified random sampling of references from all the reports. Data analyzed includes the year of publication, availability in open access, authors, subject field and themes of referenced materials, quality of the journals, and the sources of references. Findings suggest that knowledge inputs from top publishing houses are trending upwards; most inputs are still derived from peer-reviewed journals but with marked increases in references from government for-profit and non-profit knowledge generators. There continues to be a predominance of inputs from the physical sciences and increased inputs from social studies but reduced inputs from the life sciences. Climate advocates point to the rigorous scientific and multidisciplinary knowledge in these assessment reports, but few studies have mapped how such knowledge might be finding its way into them even as they are scrutinized by skeptics. This study therefore contributes to the debate on the rigor of IPCC reports.

A global pandemic treaty should aim for deep prevention

A global pandemic treaty should aim for deep prevention

Integrating new sea‐level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process

AbstractThe release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea‐level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high‐end sea‐level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long‐term decision‐making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea‐level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term.This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change &gt; Scenario Development and Application

The Evolution of Communicating the Uncertainty of Climate Change to Policymakers: A Study of IPCC Synthesis Reports

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on climate change have served to alert both the public and policymakers about the scope of the predicted changes and the effects they would have on natural and economic systems. The first IPCC report was published in 1990, since which time a further four have been produced. The aim of this study was to conduct a content analysis of the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers in order to determine the degree of certainty associated with the statements they contain. For each of the reports we analyzed all statements containing expressions indicating the corresponding level of confidence. The aggregated results show a shift over time towards higher certainty levels, implying a “Call to action” (from 32.8% of statements in IPCC2 to 70.2% in IPCC5). With regard to the international agreements drawn up to tackle climate change, the growing level of confidence expressed in the IPCC Summaries for Policymakers reports might have been a relevant factor in the history of decision making.

The transient sensitivity of sea level rise

Abstract. Recent assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) imply that global mean sea level is unlikely to rise more than about 1.1 m within this century but will increase further beyond 2100. Even within the most intensive future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, higher levels are assessed to be unlikely. However, some studies conclude that considerably greater sea level rise could be realized, and a number of experts assign a substantially higher likelihood of such a future. To understand this discrepancy, it would be useful to have scenario-independent metrics that can be compared between different approaches. The concept of a transient climate sensitivity has proven to be useful to compare the global mean temperature response of climate models to specific radiative forcing scenarios. Here, we introduce a similar metric for sea level response. By analyzing the mean rate of change in sea level (not sea level itself), we identify a nearly linear relationship with global mean surface temperature (and therefore accumulated carbon dioxide emissions) both in model projections and in observations on a century scale. This motivates us to define the “transient sea level sensitivity” as the increase in the sea level rate associated with a given warming in units of meters per century per kelvin. We find that future projections estimated on climate model responses fall below extrapolation based on recent observational records. This comparison suggests that the likely upper level of sea level projections in recent IPCC reports would be too low.

Rise of Insolation of Low Latitudes Affects Arctic Warming

Global numerical models of the Earth's climate system are the main tool for obtaining quantitative estimates of changes in the Earth's climate caused by anthropogenic activities. New findings from these models are regularly discussed and summarized in the Assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Sixth report is currently being prepared for release and is expected to becompleted this year. The release is preceded by an analysis of numerical experiments performed in accordance with the agreed list of global models for the CMIP6 ensemble. The previous ensemble of CMIP5 calculations was used in the preparation of the IPCC report issued in 2014. Since then, the models have been improved and refined taking into account the recommendations based on the analysis of CMIP5 calculations.

An assessment of the performance of scenarios against historical global emissions for IPCC reports

Long-term emissions scenarios have served as the primary basis for assessing future climate change and response strategies. Therefore, it is important to regularly reassess the relevance of emissions scenarios in light of changing global circumstances and compare them with long-term developments to determine if they are still plausible, considering the newest insights. Four scenario series, SA90, IS92, SRES, and RCP/SSP, were central in the scenario-based literature informing the five Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the sixth assessment cycle. Here we analyze the historical trends of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industry and emissions drivers between 1960 and 2017. We then compare the emission scenario series with historical trends for the period 1990–2017/2018. The results show that historical trends are quite consistent with medium scenarios in each series. As a result, they can be regarded as valid inputs for past and future analyses of climate change and impacts. Global CO2 emissions 1960–2018 (and 1990–2018) comprised six (and three) overall subperiods of emissions growth significantly higher and lower than average. Historically, CO2 emissions (in absolute numbers and growth rate) are tightly coupled with primary energy and indirectly with GDP. Global emissions generally followed a medium-high pathway, captured by “middle-of-the-road” scenario narratives in the earlier series, and by combinations of “global-sustainability” and “middle-of-the-road” narratives in the most recent series (SRES and SSP-baselines). Historical non-OECD trends were best captured by “rapid-growth” and “regional-competition” scenarios, while OECD trends were close to regional-sustainability and global-sustainability scenarios. Areas where the emissions scenarios captured the historical trends less well, are renewable and nuclear primary energy supply. The fact that the actual historical development is consistent with rapid-growth narratives in the non-OECD regions might have important implications for future greenhouse gas emissions and associated climatic change.

Is solar geoengineering ungovernable? A critical assessment of governance challenges identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

AbstractSolar radiation modification (SRM) could greatly reduce climate change and associated risks. Yet it has not been well‐received by the climate change expert community. This is evident in the authoritative reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which emphasize SRM's governance, political, social, and ethical challenges. I find seven such challenges identified in the IPCC reports: that SRM could lessen mitigation; that its termination would cause severe climatic impacts; that researching SRM would create a “slippery slope” to its inevitable and unwanted use; that decisions to use it could be contrary to democratic norms; that the public may not accept SRM; that it could be unethical; and that decisions to use SRM could be unilateral. After assessing the extent to which these challenges are supported by existing evidence, scholarly literature, and robust logic, I conclude that, for six of the seven, the IPCC's claims variously are speculative, fail to consider both advantages and disadvantages, implicitly make unreasonable negative assumptions, are contrary to existing evidence, and/or are meaninglessly vague. I suggest some reasons for the reports' failure to meet the IPCC's standards of balance, thoroughness, and accuracy, and recommend a dedicated Special Report on SRM.This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change &gt; Assessing Climate Change in the Context of Other Issues

The IPCC: A Primer for Archaeologists

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded in 1988 to provide governments with policy-relevant assessments of climate science as well as options for adaptation and mitigation. It is now recognized as providing the leading global compilation of climate science, adaptation, and mitigation research. The volunteer scientists who write these reports have carried out five complete assessment cycles, with the sixth cycle to be completed in 2022. Here, we review how information from and about archaeology and other forms of cultural heritage has been incorporated into these reports to date. Although this review shows that archaeology has not been wholly absent from work of the IPCC, we suggest that archaeology has more to offer the IPCC and global climate response. We propose five ways to more fully engage both archaeologists and knowledge from and about the human past in IPCC assessments and reports.