Abstract
AbstractThe release of new and updated sea‐level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea‐level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high‐end sea‐level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long‐term decision‐making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea‐level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term.This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application
Highlights
Global mean sea-level change represents one of the most certain consequences of human-induced climate change and is expected to cause impacts on people, natural systems, and infrastructure (Church et al, 2013b; Cubasch et al, 2013; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019; Wong et al, 2014), the magnitude of future sea-level rise (SLR) remains uncertain
When considering improving guidance on SLR scenarios, this paper argues that the publication of new results does not automatically invalidate earlier assessments of coastal risks or adaptation needs
SLR scenarios have been applied to risk and adaptation assessment and planning for more than 30 years
Summary
Global mean sea-level change represents one of the most certain consequences of human-induced climate change and is expected to cause impacts on people, natural systems, and infrastructure (Church et al, 2013b; Cubasch et al, 2013; IPCC, 2019; Wong et al, 2014), the magnitude of future sea-level rise (SLR) remains uncertain. Alternative visions of the future developments of complex systems that are either inherently unpredictable, for example, future emissions and mitigation, or have high epistemic uncertainties, for example, the lack of knowledge about the future ice sheet contribution to SLR. They can be applied locally, nationally, regionally, and globally (Field et al, 2014; Minano et al, 2018), but the reliability of, or difficulties associated with, developing and using scenarios continue to be seen as a constraint to risk and adaptation assessment and application in coastal areas (Hayes et al, 2018; Ramm et al, 2017). To fully serve all of the adaptation needs, the set of scenarios used in an assessment needs to sample the “full” space of uncertainties, otherwise there is the risk of maladaptation
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