Interests In Afghanistan Research Articles

Strategic Interests and Geopolitical Considerations: Assessing the Importance of Afghanistan for the US Post-Withdrawal

This research aimed to understand the US’s strategic interests, political goals, and geopolitical considerations in Afghanistan post-US military occupation, highlighting its strategic value for the US, given its connection to Central Asia, South Asia, China, and Russia, and its importance to US. This study used qualitative research to conduct a content analysis of the US’s strategic interests and geopolitical considerations in Afghanistan post-withdrawal, using the theories of realism offensive and defensive to determine the value of Afghanistan for the US in the region, thereby revealing US’s clear strategic interests. Afghanistan helped as a US strategic base, reducing China, India and Russia’s influence in the region, promoting its weapons industry, energy resource, indirect engagement and diplomatic initiatives, counter-terrorism, and non-proliferation and regional stability. The US also established a military presence and stable government in Afghanistan, focusing on US interests. Afghanistan has become a battleground for great powers like US, India, China, and Russia, who has used its strategic location for their own interests. The US has worked for its interests in Afghanistan for 20 years, and its policy changes and goals remain safe after withdrawal. However, their interests remain constant. The Afghan government and future generations must recognize Afghanistan’s significance for US strategic interests and geopolitical considerations. US’s priorities and policies change in the region, and when regional and great powers pose challenges, US’s presence in Afghanistan becomes possible.

Afghanistan after US troop withdrawal: assessing internal stability and terrorist threats

The results of the review of the situation in Afghanistan given in the article indicate continued instability in the country. It is emphasized that the structural reasons for the collapse of the economy are more political than economic in nature, and economic recovery will largely depend on the political decisions of the Taliban government. It is shown that although the international community's interest in Afghanistan is waning, the humanitarian situation remains dire, and the UN must continue constructive interaction with the Taliban government. Assesses the risks of terrorist threats from Afghanistan, notes the increased freedom enjoyed by al-Qaeda, and concludes that ISIS-Khorasan maintains terrorist potential.

The EU’s Interests in Afghanistan in Post-2021 Scenario: From Preferences to Operational Engagements

The European Union (EU) reshapes its position on Afghanistan in the post-US withdrawal scenario, witnessing Taliban re-entrance to the power corridors. By stopping all preferences immediately after the Taliban takeover in August 2021, the EU decided to continue only an operational engagement with the new Afghan administration which was necessary for logistical, operational, and humanitarian purposes. This research paper aims to investigate the EU’s responses towards Afghanistan, particularly in terms of its strategic engagement with Kabul, which intends to limit humanitarian assistance and other necessary activities in the war-torn country. A situation analysis of the empirical process was employed as a research technique to investigate the EU’s new stance over Afghanistan following the Taliban’s reemergence in the country. The study finds that human rights violations, ineffective rules of law, lack of social justice, and security issues led to the lack of interest of the international community including the EU in enhancing trade and economic cooperation with the country. The paper argues that to reopen doors to the international community including the EU, the Taliban regime needs to fulfil its international commitments concerning human rights and security issues.

SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION AND AFGHANISTAN: INTERESTS AND LIMITATIONS

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation has greater relevance in Afghanistan because of its strategic importance and geographic proximity. For years, the country has harboured numerous extremist groups and insurgents. It has remained a battleground for US-led coalition forces and the Taliban for about two decades. Despite efforts by the US and its allies, peace has yet to be restored in Afghanistan, and the responsibility now rests on regional countries. It is crucial for these states, especially Eurasian nations, to work together to stabilise the war-torn country and bring lasting peace to the region. Therefore, the study examines the push and pull factors of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s interests in Afghanistan and the challenges that come with implementing their peace plans. The data has been collected from various primary and secondary sources, including websites, newspapers and research articles. The paper also highlights two major concerns for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the economic crisis in Afghanistan and the international recognition of the Taliban government. Bibliography Entry Khan, Hameed Ullah, Muhammad Farooq Shah and Muhammad Ilyas Khan. 2023. "Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Afghanistan: Interests and Limitations." Margalla Papers 27 (1): 82-95.

Afghanistan's mineral fortune: prospects for fuelling a green transition?

Abstract Research conducted over the last four decades emphasizes the growing importance of Afghanistan's mineral resources as a potential driver for economic growth. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates this fortune could be worth as much as $900 billion USD in key metals and materials essential for the energy transition. However, a protracted civil war, corruption, absent or deficient infrastructure and extreme water stress prevent the extractive sector from becoming a key pillar of the Afghan economy. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of Afghanistan's mineral fortune and the prospects and obstacles of mining post-US withdrawal under Taliban rule. Five core components are provided in this analysis. First, a historical overview of Afghanistan's mineral resource development will be presented. Tapping into Afghanistan's mineral fortune requires a deep understanding of the Afghan people, and countries should not view investment through only a political risk lens, but rather take a holistic approach that incorporates environmental and social governance by giving a fair portion of the mineral wealth to the Afghan people. Second, a brief overview of the key mineral deposits and research conducted into Afghanistan's reserves will be provided. This paper builds on previous research identifying six specific provinces and deposits with the highest mineral production potential (MPP) from the original 24 areas of interest (AOIs) provided by USGS. Third, the authors emphasize the importance of water for the future of Afghanistan's mining sector and the nexus with water (in)security dynamics that will impact the stability of the country if overlooked. Overlaying various Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps (watersheds, food insecurity, water stress, geohazards and water depletion) helps identifying which of the six provinces with highest mineral production potential has the highest risk of water (in)security threats from mining. Fourth, we provide a review of the current security and mining landscape under the Taliban regime, and the challenges and opportunities for investment in the country. China's growing interest in Afghanistan and warming relations with the Taliban beg the question what role Beijing will play, if any, as the next intervening power in Afghanistan's history. Finally, this chapter concludes with some general policy recommendations for moving forward in the context of a post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Investment in Afghan mining is an investment in the Afghan people.

China’s Interests in Afghanistan: An Assessment Post US Withdrawal

Though long in the offing, US withdrawal from Afghanistan became a reality with the signing of the Doha Agreement on 29 February 2020, ultimately leading to the establishment of Taliban 2.0 in Kabul. The unravelling of the two-decade-old US-led war and reconstruction effort in Afghanistan led to a long-predicted scramble among the regional powers to fill the vacuum created by US withdrawal and threw up a plethora of intriguing questions, particularly regarding China’s role and interests in the region. This article seeks to understand and analyze China’s ever-growing engagement in Afghanistan through the paradigm of Realism, arguing that China has long-term geo-strategic and geo-economic interests in the region which requires it to coordinate more closely with Pakistan and Iran and innovate diplomatically. This article is divided into two sections. The first section focuses on China’s interests in Afghanistan viz. BRI-CPEC extension in Afghanistan, rare earth, and the need to ensure peace and stability. The second section assesses China’s response to the emerging situation by focusing on China’s engagement with the Taliban 2.0 and co-opting of Pakistan and Iran for safeguarding its long-term interests. This article concludes while looking at the position of India in the gamut.

Afghan-China Mutual Security Interests

The history of the Sino-Afghan relationship can be traced back to the 7th Century when Chinese monks traveled to Afghanistan through the Silk Road, to visit the Buddha statues in Bamyian, a province in Afghanistan. The continued China-Afghanistan relationship was disrupted following 9/11 and the subsequent US-NATO military presence in Afghanistan. The former played a leading role in the reconstruction of a new Afghan government and training of the Afghan forces. There was no Chinese involvement in Afghanistan during the US-NATO years. Instead, a mutual relationship was formed after the US-NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. In a post2014 combat forces withdrawal of the US-NATO forces, China started playing an active role in resolving the Afghan conflict. China has security interests in Afghanistan, and as long as the security threats in Afghanistan remain unsolved, China may hesitate to strengthen its economic and investment relationship with Afghanistan. When talking about the Chinese security interests in Afghanistan, East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is one of the grave concerns for China. In order to secure the China-Afghan relationship, the Chinese would require that the Afghan government contain ETIM and prevent their operation from Afghanistan. This is necessary so that ETIM is unable to function from Afghanistan and use the country as a safe haven for cross-bordered operations. Further, any subsequent strengthening of Afghan-China relations would require mutual interlards investment, and the success of investments is pegged on eliminating security threats. This paper discusses the Afghan-China mutual security interests and how an insecure Afghanistan is not only a threat to Chinese national security, but it will also have a grave impact on Chinese investment and the connectivity program of the region. Keywords: Afghan-Chinese relations; security; terrorism.

Afghan-China Mutual Security Interests

The history of the Sino-Afghan relationship can be traced back to the 7th Century when Chinese monks traveled to Afghanistan through the Silk Road, to visit the Buddha statues in Bamyian, a province in Afghanistan. The continued China-Afghanistan relationship was disrupted following 9/11 and the subsequent US-NATO military presence in Afghanistan. The former played a leading role in the reconstruction of a new Afghan government and training of the Afghan forces. There was no Chinese involvement in Afghanistan during the US-NATO years. Instead, a mutual relationship was formed after the US-NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. In a post- 2014 combat forces withdrawal of the US-NATO forces, China started playing an active role in resolving the Afghan conflict. China has security interests in Afghanistan, and as long as the security threats in Afghanistan remain unsolved, China may hesitate to strengthen its economic and investment relationship with Afghanistan. When talking about the Chinese security interests in Afghanistan, East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is one of the grave concerns for China. In order to secure the China-Afghan relationship, the Chinese would require that the Afghan government contain ETIM and prevent their operation from Afghanistan. This is necessary so that ETIM is unable to function from Afghanistan and use the country as a safe haven for cross-bordered operations. Further, any subsequent strengthening of Afghan-China relations would require mutual interlards investment, and the success of investments is pegged on eliminating security threats. This paper discusses the Afghan-China mutual security interests and how an insecure Afghanistan is not only a threat to Chinese national security, but it will also have a grave impact on Chinese investment and the connectivity program of the region.

Russian-Chinese cooperation and competition in Afghanistan and its implications for Central Asia

Background: This paper aims to explore current and perspective trends of relations between Russia and China in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It also analyzes whether the withdrawal of the U.S. and the subsequent Taliban takeover helped—and continues to help—strengthen the two powers' positions in the region and what kind of challenges and benefits they face. The paper examines the hypothesis that the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power added to Russia and China's benefits in the region. Methods: The research uses content analysis regarding official documents, political and military elite speeches, interviews, and reports to explain Russia and China’s official positions and policies regarding Afghanistan and Central Asia. Relations between the two powers as regards Afghanistan and Central Asia are comparatively analyzed. The paper uses the neorealist approach, which is fit for explaining relations between Russia and China in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Results: After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, regional security is now the business of the regional powers, mainly China and Russia. Now they should bear the responsibilities and share the burdens. There is probably more ground for competition after eliminating the threats in Afghanistan and especially in Central Asia for Moscow and Beijing. However, Russia and China will continue to try to align their interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia, especially if their relations with U.S. remain at the current level or worsen in the coming years. Conclusions: Based on the findings, this paper argues that, on the one hand, Russia and China continue to try to take advantage of the instability in the region by stepping up their security and economic influences in Central Asia. However, their stabilizing efforts in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of the U.S., ironically may increase competition between China and Russia.

DONALD TRUMP’S POLICY AND POSTURE TOWARDS PAKISTAN: THE EMERGING DYNAMICS AND DRIVERS OF THE BILATERAL TIES

Arguably, the growing estrangement between Pakistan and US predates President Donald Trump. Due to the divergent interests in Afghanistan and the region, the bilateral ties were already cracking under the chronic stress of mutual distrust and renewed acrimony between Washington and Islamabad. However, the unexpected election of Donald Trump as the US president further widened the gulf between the two countries with long history of transactional ties perennially vulnerable to disruption and discord due to periodic convergence and divergence of national interests. With his signature Twitter-borne diplomacy, Trump sought to tighten the screw on Pakistan by harping more vociferously and vigorously ‘on do more’ mantra than ever before. Today, the US has begun to view Pakistan from the Indian lens in order to appease New Delhi viewed as a critical strategic partner in her quest to contain China. The Indo-US deepening partnership has potentially tangible ramifications for the fragile strategic balance in South Asia. This scholarly endeavor seeks to dissect the dynamics and examines the drivers of the evolving shift in the US policy towards Pakistan-with unknown and unwarranted repercussions for the fragile regional peace and security. Keywords: Pak-US Relations, New US Afghan Strategy, Donald Trum

The Complexity of Intra-Afghan Dialogue Civil War Looms in Afghanistan

The US and NATO through a peace deal got a safe exit from Afghanistan. In this backdrop, the economic future of Afghanistan is more important. On the other hand, Pakistan has a short period to format its policies because after the US withdraws, there are serious threats of civil war and chaos in Afghanistan. India, Pakistan, Russia, and China are the rival states in the regions, which have strategic interests in Afghanistan. Regional, religious, ethnic, political, social, and economic complexities are the major obstacles to the Intra-Afghan peace deal. All these factors are indicating more complexes in the intra-Afghan peace process, which may lead to civil war. The possible solutions are the traditional Pashtuns Loya Jirga. This work attempts to analyze the stakeholders and trends in the Intra-Afghan peace process, and the complexities of the peace process. Keywords: Civil War, Peace Deal, NATO, Loya Jirga, Shura, Tribal system, Taliban

The Impact of Afghanistan's Changed Situation on India's Geo-environment

Afghanistan's changed situation was one of the biggest international changes in 2021, causing violent shocks to the world. As an important neighboring country of Afghanistan, India has significant economic and security interests in Afghanistan. The change in Afghanistan has not only directly affected the bilateral relations between India and Afghanistan, but also has triggered a new round of regional power games involving India, Pakistan, Russia, Iraq and other countries. At the same time, the change in Afghanistan is also related to the adjustment of United States’ global strategy. As a result, the situation in Afghanistan has had a profound and extensive impact on India's geo-environment.

CHINA’S INTERESTS IN AFGHANISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF CHINESE INVESTMENTS (1990-2020)

China is emerging as a global economic power and planning to maintain and expand its influence in term of economic, political and strategic interests especially in the neighboring countries like India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. In order to fulfill its dream of economic supremacy and national interest, China has launched a series of developmental initiatives including development of infrastructure, trade and economic activities in the region especially Afghanistan. However, owing to the security conditions, presence of militant and terrorist tendencies, it is still challenging for China to come out as a strong political and economic force in Afghanistan. This article is planned to carry out a systematic reflection on the China’s political and economic interests in Afghanistan and analyze its investment in various developmental activities and projects. For this purpose, descriptive method was used in which secondary data was extracted from various academic sources including journals, books and reports. Findings of the study reveal that China has invested billions of dollars on various developmental projects including coal mine, exploration of oil and gas, telecommunication, railway lines and roads and economic assistance to Afghanistan. It is concluded from the study that China’s economic and strategic policies in Afghanistan will not only safeguard Chinese interest but it will also help Afghanistan to counter militancy and cross border infiltration through economic, business and trade in Afghanistan. Keywords: China, Afghanistan, Economic instability, infrastructure, natural resources

Protecting US Interests in Afghanistan

It is unrealistic to expect the Taliban regime to provide Afghanistan with a representative government that respects human rights in line with American preferences, or to constitute a strong security partner for the United States. But Washington still has choices about the relationship it can have with Kabul. The US government should move beyond its post-withdrawal hybrid policy of isolation and limited engagement – essentially, no relationship beyond occasional ad hoc problem-solving – to one that is better able to protect US interests in the region. These include preventing Afghanistan from becoming a base for transnational terrorist groups, securing the departure of Afghans at risk due to their association with the US occupation, and tamping down anti-Western sentiment. A bilateral relationship that establishes routine US diplomatic engagement, a development-assistance programme and tailored sanctions is required.

Essential Points of the Taliban Peace Agreement with the United States and Its Consequence for Iran (2020-2021)

On March 10, 2020, within an agreement between the USA and Taliban, a timetable to withdraw all foreign troops from Afghanistan, a practicalmechanism to prevent the use of Afghan territory against the security of the United States and its allies, efforts to achieve a comprehensive andlasting ceasefire in the inter-Afghan talks was announced. One of the critical points of the U.S. peace agreement with the Taliban is that it could havesignificant political economic security consequences for Iran; such as the limitation of the possibility of Iranian companies operating in Afghanistan, theduality of the positive security outcome due to the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the negative consequence of the increased instability in Afghanistan,the limitation of Iran’s security and economic presence due to the increased presence of Russia and China in Afghanistan, and could pave the wayfor the expansion of the influence of regional actors in conflict with Iran’s interests in Afghanistan. Strategies include in the peace Agreements were:• Developing multilateral mechanisms for cooperation with Russia and China,• expanding direct economic and security interaction with the Taliban, and• establishing a joint economic commission consisting of economic representatives of the Taliban and the Afghan government to strengtheneconomic security and take advantage of the economic and political consequences of the peace agreement.This article examines the peace agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban, Iran’s position against the Taliban, and the economicconsequences for Iran now that the Taliban took power. Iran is deeply concerned about the Taliban’s implications for its internal security, economicinterests, and regional position. Although Iran is pleased that American troops are no longer in Afghanistan and considers this a great victory, it hasbeen more cautious with its neighbor than ever before.To attain the goals of this qualitative research, a descriptive-analytical method is used. The advantages presented by this method include: enablingthe collection of a significant amount of data from different sources presented by different countries, China, Russia, USA, Iran, and Afghanistan, whichmakes the present research more reliable. The view is critical regarding existing circumstances on the impact of U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistanon Ian political and economic situation. This article examines the possible consequences of this agreement by pointing out the possible geopoliticalchanges in the region.Keywords: Doha Peace Agreement, US, Afghanistan, Taliban, Foreign policy, Iran’s economy, Russia, China, Muslim Brotherhood

Pakistan-Russia Collaboration: Implications for Afghanistan and Central Asia

Pakistan and Russia are in close collaboration for the last decade or so due to the changed regional and global geo-political scenarios. However understanding and respecting each other’s interests as well as convergence of Pak-Russian interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia is the main driving force behind this development which guarantee a permanent need for each other. Both Pakistan and Russia emphasised on a negotiated settlement for Afghanistan imbroglio addressing concerns of regional states. The Russia-Central Asia-South Asia integration via Afghanistan and Pakistan is in the minds of Russia and Pakistan. Russia controls the northern corridor to the contiguous areas of Afghanistan and Central Asia while Pakistan provides an outlet in the south. The close cooperation between Pakistan and Russia has also encouraged Central Asian Republics for greater interaction with Pakistan. Sino-Russian close cooperation on Central Asia and Pak-China close liaison on Afghanistan also solidifies Pak-Russia collaboration. Thus Russia, China, Pakistan axis will be a symbol of peace and prosperity for Afghanistan and Central Asia. In post US/NATO Afghanistan, maintaining regional peace and stability will be a shared responsibility of regional states.

Study on the evolving role of the People’s Republic of China in resolving the conflict in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

The age-old struggle for influence in Asia, intensified in recent decades, has gained a new player in the form of dynamic China, one of the leaders of world politics and the economy of today. The authors draw on the opinions of foreign and domestic experts to determine the reasons for the involvement and role of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in resolving the conflict in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA) and to link these activities to China’s renewed strategy in the Middle East as a whole. The research done by the authors over the last six months has developed rapidly in recent weeks and even days, indicating that geopolitical turbulence is developing in recent times.The article classifies the full range of the People’s Republic of China interests in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and identifies the factors that influence the formation of China’s system of interests in Afghanistan, including factors in the international environment. The consequences of the pandemic and China’s new opportunities to use soft power to advance its interests have been identified. The People’s Republic of China’s strategy in the region has been defined and attention has been paid to security issues.Beijing’s envisaged steps to promote its projects in the region have been presented.

China's foreign policy towards Afghanistan after 2001 AD

The official diplomatic relationship between China and Afghanistan has a half-century history. The Imperial Government of Afghanistan recognized the People's Republic of China in 5511, and diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and China were formally established. China did not recognize the Taliban Regime between "1005-5551", but until then had indirect relations with the Taliban through Pakistan. The main purpose of this study is to examine China's foreign policy towards Afghanistan after 1005. This research is written by the descriptive-analytical method. The results of the study show that China's attention to Afghanistan after 1005and China's entry into the political arena of Afghanistan, indicates China's foreign policy to play an active role in Afghanistan and activated its foreign policy towards the Afghan government and help for Reconstruction of Afghanistan. It also maintained a relationship with the Taliban to protect its economic interests in Afghanistan. Given China's geopolitical and proximity to Afghanistan, four important political, strategic, geographical, and economic features are important to China, and Beijing hopes to pursue its foreign policy with the Taliban government to further its interests after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

China and Afghanistan: the State of Relations after the Withdrawal of U.S. Troops

The article describes the state and directions of Sino-Afghan relations after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. To substantiate a number of points, it provides information about Sino-Afghan relations under the former, republican government of the country. The Chinese stance on establishing ties with the Taliban who seized power in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021 is analyzed, its motivation and main provisions, including non-interference in the internal affairs, rejection of the financial sanctions against the new regime, etc., are described. It is pointed out that China's main interests in Afghanistan are, firstly, to ensure the security of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the PRC, which for decades has been the target of Uyghur separatists from Afghanistan (the ETIM movement). And, secondarily, with the prospects for developing the country's enormous, valuable natural resources, as well as using its geographical location to create an infrastructure system in Central and South Asia. The current state of economic cooperation between China and the new Afghan authorities is described, and its goals and difficulties are revealed. The reasons for China's restrained political behavior in Afghanistan with an explicit focus on the economic aspect of bilateral dialogue are also discussed. The issue of Beijing's diplomatic recognition of the new Kabul regime is raised and it is noted that it will not be rapid due to the risk of reputational losses for China and the ambiguous perception of the Taliban in the world. It concludes with the question of what China can expect if Afghanistan's economic development is not a priority for the Taliban authorities and China's strive to cooperation is not adequately responded to? It concludes that, despite circumstances favoring the PRC's entry into Afghanistan's political and economic landscape, conditions for a close bilateral partnership with the Taliban are not yet ripe due to its riskiness and prognostic uncertainty.

Chinese Geo-Strategic Objectives and Economic Interests in Afghanistan under President Xi Jinping

Chinese Geo-Strategic Objectives and Economic Interests in Afghanistan under President Xi Jinping