China and Afghanistan: the State of Relations after the Withdrawal of U.S. Troops

Abstract

The article describes the state and directions of Sino-Afghan relations after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. To substantiate a number of points, it provides information about Sino-Afghan relations under the former, republican government of the country. The Chinese stance on establishing ties with the Taliban who seized power in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021 is analyzed, its motivation and main provisions, including non-interference in the internal affairs, rejection of the financial sanctions against the new regime, etc., are described. It is pointed out that China's main interests in Afghanistan are, firstly, to ensure the security of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the PRC, which for decades has been the target of Uyghur separatists from Afghanistan (the ETIM movement). And, secondarily, with the prospects for developing the country's enormous, valuable natural resources, as well as using its geographical location to create an infrastructure system in Central and South Asia. The current state of economic cooperation between China and the new Afghan authorities is described, and its goals and difficulties are revealed. The reasons for China's restrained political behavior in Afghanistan with an explicit focus on the economic aspect of bilateral dialogue are also discussed. The issue of Beijing's diplomatic recognition of the new Kabul regime is raised and it is noted that it will not be rapid due to the risk of reputational losses for China and the ambiguous perception of the Taliban in the world. It concludes with the question of what China can expect if Afghanistan's economic development is not a priority for the Taliban authorities and China's strive to cooperation is not adequately responded to? It concludes that, despite circumstances favoring the PRC's entry into Afghanistan's political and economic landscape, conditions for a close bilateral partnership with the Taliban are not yet ripe due to its riskiness and prognostic uncertainty.