Interdiction Efforts Research Articles

Financial Extremism: The Dark Side of Crowdfunding and Terrorism

ABSTRACT This study sheds light on the emerging threat of terrorists, particularly Hamas and other Palestinian terror organizations, leveraging online crowdfunding and cryptocurrencies. The recent events of October 7, 2023, highlight the pressing nature of this issue. A systematic case analysis reveals the sophisticated exploitation of digital finance for discreet resource accumulation, circumventing traditional oversight. The findings expose unidentified typologies and funding pathways, significantly bolstering terrorist resilience against interdiction efforts. This study provides vital knowledge to catalyze policy adaptations at this critical juncture by probing real-world implications that still lack coordinated responses. Ultimately, this study raises awareness about evolving asymmetries and underscores the importance of closing gaps in vigilance, necessitating academic and policy attention to inform agile, ethical countermeasures before technological vulnerabilities widen further.

Generation of High-Affinity Aptamers for Indazole Synthetic Cannabinoids.

Synthetic cannabinoids are a widely abused class of dangerous psychoactive substances, especially among youths and young adults. Dozens of such drugs have been identified to date, and new ones continue to emerge. The ability to detect these drugs is important for interdiction efforts and the diagnosis of drug overdose, but existing analytical methods lack broad cross-reactivity to diverse members of this drug family. Here, we have utilized library-immobilized SELEX to generate DNA aptamers that can broadly recognize various members of the indazole-3-carboxamide synthetic cannabinoid family. Using two representatives of this family, AB-FUBINACA and 5F-AMB, we identify two aptamers FUB4 and AMB2F with respective dissociation constants (KDs) of 138 ± 15 and 411 ± 20 nM for their targets. These aptamers can recognize many indazole-based synthetic cannabinoids with high affinity and excellent specificity against natural cannabinoids as well as other structurally similar interferents like serotonin and tryptophan. We use these two aptamers to develop fluorescence strand-displacement sensors that successfully detect these synthetic cannabinoids at concentrations as low as 50 nM in human serum. The sensors can also detect up to 14 different drugs from this family─a major improvement over the six recognized by an existing commercial immunoassay.

Coupling agent-based simulation and spatial optimization models to understand spatially complex and co-evolutionary behavior of cocaine trafficking networks and counterdrug interdiction

Despite more than 40 years of counterdrug interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine trafficking, or ‘‘narco-trafficking’’, networks continue to evolve and increase their global reach. Counterdrug interdiction continues to fall short of performance targets, due to the adaptability of narco-trafficking networks and spatially complex constraints on interdiction operations (e.g., resources, jurisdictional). Due to these dynamics, current modeling approaches offer limited strategic insights into time-varying, spatially optimal allocation of counterdrug interdiction assets. This study presents coupled agent-based and spatial optimization models to investigate the co-evolution of counterdrug interdiction deployment and narco-trafficking networks’ adaptive responses. Increased spatially optimized interdiction assets were found to increase seizure volumes. However, the value per seized shipment concurrently decreased and the number of active nodes increased or was unchanged. Narco-trafficking networks adaptively responded to increased interdiction pressure by spatially diversifying routes and dispersing shipment volumes. Thus, increased interdiction pressure had the unintended effect of expanding the spatial footprint of narco-trafficking networks. This coupled modeling approach enabled the study of narco-trafficking network evolution while being subjected to varying interdiction pressure as a spatially complex adaptive system. Capturing such co-evolution dynamics is essential for simulating traffickers’ realistic adaptive responses to a wide range of interdiction scenarios.

Space-time analysis of COVID-19 cases and SARS-CoV-2 wastewater loading: A geodemographic perspective

Severe acute respiratory syndrome - coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to effect communities across the world. One way to combat these effects is to enhance our collective ability to remotely monitor community spread. Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater is one approach that enables researchers to estimate the total number of infected people in a region; however, estimates are often made at the sewershed level which may mask the geographic nuance required for targeted interdiction efforts. In this work, we utilize an apportioning method to compare the spatial and temporal trends of daily case count with the temporal pattern of viral load in the wastewater at smaller units of analysis within Austin, TX. We find different lag-times between wastewater loading and case reports. Daily case reports for some locations follow the temporal trend of viral load more closely than others. These findings are then compared to socio-demographic characteristics across the study area.

A family of models in support of realistic drug interdiction location decision‐making

AbstractLong‐standing federal drug‐control policy aims to reduce the flow of narcotics into the USA, in part by intercepting cocaine shipments en route from South American production regions to North American consumer markets. Drug interdiction efforts operate over a large geographic area, containing complex drug trafficking networks in a dynamic environment. The extant interdiction models in the operations research and location science literature do not realistically model the objectives of and constraints on the interdiction forces, and therefore counterdrug organizations do not employ those models in their decision‐making processes. This article presents three new models built on the maximal covering location problem (MCLP): the maximal covering location problem for interdiction (MCLP‐I), multiple‐demand maximal covering location problem (MD‐MCLP), and multiple‐type maximal covering location problem (MT‐MCLP). These are novel formulations that permit multiple types of demands and facilities to be covered, and the utility of these formulations is demonstrated in the context of counterdrug operations. Optimal interdiction locations are determined within the geography of the Central American transit zone, using a coupled GIS and optimization framework. The results identify the optimal interdiction locations for known or estimated drug shipments and can constrain those optimal locations by differentiating among drug traffickers, the types of interdiction resources, and agency jurisdictions. This research both demonstrates the flexibility in designing alternative interdiction scenarios and presents novel covering models that may be extended to other application areas and operational contexts.

Shifting landscape suitability for cocaine trafficking through Central America in response to counterdrug interdiction

Cocaine traffickers, or ‘narco-traffickers’, successfully exploit the heterogeneous landscapes of Central America for transnational smuggling. Narco-traffickers successfully adapt to disruptions from counterdrug interdiction efforts by spatially adjusting smuggling routes to evade detection, and by doing so bring collateral damages, such as deforestation, corruption, and violence, to new areas. This study is novel for its integration of landscape suitability analysis with criminological theory to understand the locations of these spatial adaptations by narco-traffickers as intentional, logical, and predictable choices based on the socio-environmental characteristics of Central America’s landscapes. Multi-level, mixed effects negative binomial regression models predict the suitability of landscapes for cocaine trafficking across 17 departamentos (the unit of analysis) in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama from 2007 to 2018. Informed by long-term research in the region, independent variables included proximity to roads, country borders, and international ports, indigenous territories, population density, and protected areas. The year of peak interdiction (measured by kg of cocaine seized) in each departamento was used to analyze spatial shifts in landscape suitability before and after maximum counterdrug interdiction pressure. We find that areas with lower population density and closer proximity to international borders became more suitable following peak interdiction—i.e, they are more likely to be sought out by traffickers seeking to avoid further disruptions from counternarcotic efforts. Additionally, indigenous territories were disproportionately exploited as cocaine trafficking routes following significant interdiction activities by law enforcement. While interdiction may reduce the suitability of targeted locations, it can also unintentionally increase the attractiveness of other locations. Our study pushes criminological theory through its application to a unique space/time context, and it advances land system science by considering landscape suitability for logistical rather than productive uses. Policy implications are clear. Since interdiction resources are limited relative to the overall amount of trafficking activity, knowing which landscape features are viewed as suitable by traffickers can in the short-term guide interdiction deployment strategies, and in the longer term build strategies to mitigate associated harms from trafficking where they are most likely.

Geographic origin determination of Brazilian Cannabis sativa L. (Marihuana) by multi-element concentration

The Marihuana Polygon production of Cannabis sativa L. supplies the northeastern region of Brazil and represents 30% of the nation’s market. The international trend of indoor cultivation is also occurring in Brazil, and the Brazilian Federal Police (BFP) has been increasing its apprehension of cannabis seeds sent by mail. The present work aims to assess the utility of the multi-element composition of different cannabis plant parts and soil samples where the plants were cultivated to determine their geographic origin. Statistical tools were applied to classification of marijuana samples from distinct geographic regions within northeastern Brazil, including indoor cultivated samples. The multi-element quantification was determined using inductively-coupled plasma – optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), and the data were compared by the Kruskal-Wallis H test, and subsequently, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA). The results of the multi-element concentration of cannabis plant samples were also subjected to a principal component analysis (PCA) and an orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA). The cannabis plant samples from the Marihuana Polygon could be clearly separated from those cultivated indoors, and the distance between them was detectable. The MDA revealed that phosphorus, calcium, magnesium, selenium, and arsenic concentrations were used as variables for this separation. Our results demonstrate that multi-element composition analysis can be used to indicate the origin or cultivation location of cannabis plants. Routine laboratory analyses consisting of multi-element composition combined with statistical analyses provide a reliable tool by which C. sativa movement, cultivation, and interdiction efforts in Brazil may be assessed.

Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. We use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model’s capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.

Geospatial-Temporal and Demand Models for Opioid Admissions, Implications for Policy.

Background: As the opioid epidemic continues, understanding the geospatial, temporal, and demand patterns is important for policymakers to assign resources and interdict individual, organization, and country-level bad actors. Methods: GIS geospatial-temporal analysis and extreme-gradient boosted random forests evaluate ICD-10 F11 opioid-related admissions and admission rates using geospatial analysis, demand analysis, and explanatory models, respectively. The period of analysis was January 2016 through September 2018. Results: The analysis shows existing high opioid admissions in Chicago and New Jersey with emerging areas in Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. High rates of admission (claims per 10,000 population) exist in the Appalachian area and on the Northeastern seaboard. Explanatory models suggest that hospital overall workload and financial variables might be used for allocating opioid-related treatment funds effectively. Gradient-boosted random forest models accounted for 87.8% of the variability of claims on blinded 20% test data. Conclusions: Based on the GIS analysis, opioid admissions appear to have spread geographically, while higher frequency rates are still found in some regions. Interdiction efforts require demand-analysis such as that provided in this study to allocate scarce resources for supply-side and demand-side interdiction: Prevention, treatment, and enforcement.

A supply-based response to a demand-driven problem: a fifteen-year analysis of drug interdiction in Poland

This study examined one key element of drug supply-reduction policies – drug interdiction – in the Central and Eastern European country of Poland. Poland is a nation that has experienced significant social, political, and cultural changes since the fall of communism, resulting in multiple reforms to their national policing model and drug laws. Poland is also uniquely situated in Europe as a consumer nation, a transit country for drugs, and a significant source of amphetamines. These factors place additional strain on agencies responsible for drug interdiction. To-date, however, the efficacy of police-driven interdiction efforts or factors that might impact the success of such policies (e.g., funding, strength of the police force, the number of drug-related crimes detected) have not been empirically examined in this setting. Thus, this study examined officially reported data in Poland over a 15-year time period (2001 to 2015) to determine how these factors were related to the seized amounts of heroin, cocaine, amphetamine, and herbal cannabis, given the historic national context. The main findings indicated that the cannabis and amphetamine markets were strongly linked, while user-based arrests related to particular drug-types (e.g., amphetamines) were found to be significantly related to seizures of different drug-types (e.g., heroin), suggesting possible market integration. Further, government expenditures for public safety were not found to be significantly associated with interdiction efforts.

Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system

Counterdrug interdiction efforts designed to seize or disrupt cocaine shipments between South American source zones and US markets remain a core US "supply side" drug policy and national security strategy. However, despite a long history of US-led interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine movements to the United States through Central America, or "narco-trafficking," continue to rise. Here, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM), called "NarcoLogic," of narco-trafficker operational decision making in response to interdiction forces to investigate the root causes of interdiction ineffectiveness across space and time. The central premise tested was that spatial proliferation and resiliency of narco-trafficking are not a consequence of ineffective interdiction, but rather part and natural consequence of interdiction itself. Model development relied on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, media reports, and the authors' own years of field research in the region. Parameterization and validation used the best available, authoritative data source for illicit cocaine flows. Despite inherently biased, unreliable, and/or incomplete data of a clandestine phenomenon, the model compellingly reproduced the "cat-and-mouse" dynamic between narco-traffickers and interdiction forces others have qualitatively described. The model produced qualitatively accurate and quantitatively realistic spatial and temporal patterns of cocaine trafficking in response to interdiction events. The NarcoLogic model offers a much-needed, evidence-based tool for the robust assessment of different drug policy scenarios, and their likely impact on trafficker behavior and the many collateral damages associated with the militarized war on drugs.

The Opioid Epidemic: Moving Toward an Integrated, Holistic Analytical Response.

In many jurisdictions, public safety and public health entities are working together to enhance the timeliness and accuracy of the analytical characterization and toxicology testing of novel synthetic opioids. The improved sharing and early detection of these analytical data are intended to inform surveillance, interdiction efforts, patient intervention and treatment, all of which are critical to curbing the opioid epidemic. Forensic practitioners working to identify novel synthetic opioids struggle to provide timely results when encountering new or unknown substances, such as the fentanyl analogs. These compounds, which mimic heroin in pharmacologic effect but can be far more potent, are inconsistently present in chemical identification libraries, and are currently largely unavailable as reference materials for analytical comparison. Additionally, federal, state and local governments as well as nongovernmental organizations require potency, toxicity and potential-for-abuse data to evaluate the potential health risks of emerging drug threats. Subsequent scheduling efforts and criminal prosecutions also require these thorough drug characterization studies. Pilot programs have demonstrated that early communication of real-time drug toxicity and analytical data significantly impacts the successful response to emerging opioids. High-quality, real-time, national-level data on chemical composition, toxicological test data, drug toxicity and overdoses, and analysis of seized materials by law enforcement are needed to track drug trends. However, the USA still lacks a national system to coordinate and communicate toxicology, medical and medical examiner and coroner data with the broader medical and law enforcement communities. Opportunities to address these gaps as well as recent advancements collected through interagency efforts and technical workshops in the toxicology and analytical chemistry communities are presented here. Opportunities for partnership, increased communication and expanding best practices to move toward an integrated, holistic analytical response are also explored.

Bayesian Metropolis methods for source localization in an urban environment

We apply Bayesian techniques to determine the location and intensity of a gamma radiation source in an urban environment using count rates taken from a distributed detector network. A simplified model of the radiation transport process is used to construct a statistical model for the detector count rates in the presence of a randomly varying background. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to generate samples from the Bayesian posterior density, which can be used to inform search and interdiction efforts. We also present a modification of the traditional Metropolis sampling algorithm that allows us to incorporate fixed parameter uncertainties in building macroscopic cross sections and account for their effects on the posterior distribution. This method is then applied to a test problem based on a real urban geometry with different levels of uncertainty in the building cross sections. The results show that the uncertainty in the estimated source location is modest, even with a large degree of uncertainty in the building cross sections.

The EU's Hotspot Approach: Questionable Motivations and Unreachable Goals

The European Union is ‘externalizing’ responsibility for asylum seekers, but this effort only leads to more ethical, logistical, and human rights problems. The EU compels and/or finances Greece, Italy, and a number of African States to turn migrants around. Since asylum seekers must claim protection at the borders or inside the so-called Destination State, turning them around before they can reach Europe artificially lowers numbers of claimants. This process of arresting, detaining, and ejecting is called ‘interdiction’. It is meant to shore up the faltering Common European Asylum System (CEAS). However, detaining asylum seekers on the Greek Aegean Islands and in non-European States will only lead to more detention, more harm, and worsening conditions along the migrant route. Detention will not work to deter asylum seekers from reaching European shores. As it stands, campaigns like #opentheislands focuses too heavily on scapegoating Greece and its Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. The confinement of asylum seekers to ‘hotspots’ on the Aegean Islands (namely Lesvos, Chios, Samos, Leros, and Kos) for periods ranging from months to more than a year, is a consequence of EU decisions and priorities. This article argues that while #opentheislands is a laudable campaign, we must also not lose sight of the complex, interrelated problems that cannot be resolved by externalization or transfers to the mainland: namely, that Greece serves as the gateway to Northern and Western Europe; that immigration detention in ‘hotspots’ and other externalization efforts will not work to deter migrants and asylum seekers from crossing the Mediterranean Sea and other dangerous routes; and that migration to Europe is natural, inevitable, and uncontainable by interdiction efforts.

Multi-objective Stackelberg game model for water supply networks against interdictions with incomplete information

Water supply networks are infrastructures pivotal to economic development and living standards, of which the increasing complexity and interdependencies have brought challenges for the protection and enhancement of water supplies. We address the problem on how to defend water supply networks with hydraulic characteristics against an interdictor by building a multi-objective Stackelberg game model with incomplete information. In this model, the defender and the interdictor, both considered as rational players, choose a subset of network components to defend or interdict based on their payoffs. The defender, with incomplete information on the interdictor's efforts, initiates to trade off the two objectives of maximizing the expected network satisfaction rate and of minimizing defense efforts, whereas the interdictor, with no information on network operational capacity, follows to trade off the objectives of minimizing the expected network efficiency and of minimizing interdiction efforts. The algorithm of determining the final optimal defense strategies is presented, which consists of three steps: (1) develop the strategy sets by the assessments of network vulnerability and resilience; (2) analyze the equilibrium through a nested heuristic genetic algorithm; and (3) determine the final optimal defense strategy based on the minimax regret approach. A case study of D-town water supply network demonstrates the practical significance of the proposed approach. Furthermore, the impacts of the incomplete information are analyzed to provide suggestions on the defense strategy making.

The economics of the war on illegal drug production and trafficking

We model the war on drugs in source countries as a conflict over scarce inputs in successive levels of the production and trafficking chain, and study how policies aimed at different stages affect prices and quantities in upstream and downstream markets. We use the model to study Plan Colombia, a large intervention aimed at reducing the downstream supply of cocaine by targeting illicit crops and blocking the transport of cocaine outside this source country. The model fits the main patterns found in the data, including the displacement of the drug trade to other source countries, the increase in coca crops’ productivity as a response to eradication, and the lack of apparent effects in consumer markets. We use a reasonable parametrization of our model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different policies implemented under Plan Colombia. We find that the marginal cost to the U.S. of reducing cocaine transacted in retail markets by one kilogram is $940,000, if it subsidizes eradication efforts; and $175,000, if it subsidizes interdiction efforts in Colombia.

Challenging Illicit Bulk Cash Flows: Next Steps for US Law Enforcement

This article examines key issues contributing to the limited success of US Federal law enforcement in disrupting illicit bulk cash flows across the Mexico-US border. It highlights the negative consequences of narco-dollars on the Mexican formal economy and social fabric and examines the limitations in federal law enforcement’s strategic approach to disrupting these cross-border flows. It illustrates the overwhelming challenge to interdiction efforts on the US-Mexico border and calls for a whole-of-government approach in focusing on disrupting the processes that bind criminal group interactions rather than the current mainstream focus on “kingpin” elimination and singular group dismantlement. The article concludes that law enforcement must be as agile and adaptive as its adversaries, with a continuous need for self-assessment based on the evolving dynamics of the threat landscape.

On Liberation

A will to escape organizes the practice of Latin American Christian liberation while at the same time enacting a new genre of captivity. After a shift in US interdiction efforts, the vast majority of cocaine produced in the Andes for the United States now passes through Guatemala. With this drastic increase has come a spike in the use of crack cocaine, as well as the proliferation of drug rehabilitation centers. Run by Pentecostal Christians, these centers warehouse users (against their will) in the name of liberation. Locked up, tied up, and told to shape up, these users confess, at times plead, that they want out and they want it now. Pastors, in response, assure them that captivity is itself liberation—that slavery is salvation. This will to escape provokes a pair of guiding questions. They are, at their most philosophical: How do openings become enclosures? How do lines of flight become absolute dead ends?

Focused Deterrence, Selective Targeting, Drug Trafficking and Organised Crime: Concepts and Practicalities

Focused-deterrence strategies, selective targeting, and sequential interdiction efforts are being increasingly embraced as more promising law enforcement alternatives. They seek to minimize the most pernicious behavior of criminal groups, such as engaging in violence, or to maximize certain kinds of desirable behavior sometimes exhibited by criminals, such as eschewing engagement with terrorist groups. The focused-deterrence, selective targeting strategies also enable overwhelmed law enforcement institutions to overcome certain under resourcing problems. Especially, in the United States, such approaches have produced impressive results in reducing violence and other harms generated by organized crime groups and youth gangs. Such approaches have, however, encountered implementation difficulties elsewhere in the world.This report first outlines the logic and problems of zero-tolerance and undifferentiated targeting in law enforcement policies. Second, it lays out the key theoretical concepts of law-enforcement strategies of focused-deterrence and selective targeting and reviews some of their applications, as in Operation Ceasefire in Boston in the 1990s and urban-policing operations in Rio de Janeiro during the 2000s decade. Third, the report analyses the implementation challenges selective targeting and focused-deterrence strategies have encountered, particularly outside of the United States. And finally, it discusses some key dilemmas in designing selective targeting and focused-deterrence strategies to fight crime.

The governance institutions of a drug trafficking organization

How do drug trafficking organizations organize? Drug trafficking organizations continue to operate effectively despite incentives for members to defect, pressure from damaged communities, and government interdiction efforts. This paper identifies the problem of defection in this context and applies insights from the literatures on club goods and extralegal governance institutions to explain the puzzling organization and activities of one of Mexico’s most dangerous drug trafficking organizations, La Familia Michoacana. The group uses a reward and punishment scheme to prevent defection from members and to elicit cooperation from the community and government.